A conditional likelihood ratio test for structural models

This paper develops a general method for constructing similar tests based on the conditional distribution of nonpivotal statistics in a simultaneous equations model with normal errors and known reducedform covariance matrix. The test based on the likelihood ratio statistic is particularly simple and has good power properties. When identification is strong, the power curve of this conditional likelihood ratio test is essentially equal to the power envelope for similar tests. Monte Carlo simulations also suggest that this test dominates the Anderson- Rubin test and the score test. Dropping the restrictive assumption of disturbances normally distributed with known covariance matrix, approximate conditional tests are found that behave well in small samples even when identification is weak.

Using irregularly spaced returns to estimate multi-factor models : application to Brazilian equity data

Multi-factor models constitute a use fui tool to explain cross-sectional covariance in equities retums. We propose in this paper the use of irregularly spaced returns in the multi-factor model estimation and provide an empirical example with the 389 most liquid equities in the Brazilian Market. The market index shows itself significant to explain equity returns while the US$/Brazilian Real exchange rate and the Brazilian standard interest rate does not. This example shows the usefulness of the estimation method in further using the model to fill in missing values and to provide intervaI forecasts.

Estimates of genetic parameters for scrotal circumference using random regression models in Nelore cattle

A total of 15,901 scrotal circumference (SC) records from 5300 Nelore bulls, ranging from 229 to 560 days of age, were used with the objective of estimating (co)variance functions for SC, using random regression models. Models included the fixed effects of contemporary group and age of dam at calving as covariable (linear and quadratic effects). To model the population mean trend, a third order Legendre polynomial on animal age was utilized. The direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental random effects were modeled by Legendre polynomials on animal age, with orders of fit ranging from 1 to 5. Residual variances were modeled considering 1 (homogeneity of variance) or 4 age classes. Results obtained with the random regression models were compared to multi-trait analysis. (Co)variance estimates using multi-trait and random regression models were similar. The model considering a third- and fifth-order Legendre polynomials for additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects, respectively, was the most adequate to model changes in variance of SC with age. Heritability estimates for SC ranged from 0.24 (229 days of age) to 0.47 (300 days of age), remained almost constant until 500 days of age (0.52), decreasing thereafter (0.44). In general, the genetic correlations between measures of scrotal circumference obtained from 229 to 560 days of age decreased with increasing distance between ages. For genetic evaluation scrotal circumference could be measured between 400 and 500 days of age. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of non-linear growth models to describe the growth curve in West African Dwarf sheep

The objectives of this study were to compare the goodness of fit of four non-linear growth models, i.e. Brody, Gompertz, Logistic and Von Bertalanffy, in West African Dwarf (WAD) sheep. A total of 5274 monthly weight records from birth up to 180 days of age from 889 lambs, collected during 2001 to 2004 in Betecoucou breeding farm in Benin were used. In the preliminary analysis, the General Linear Model Procedure of the Statistical Analysis Systems Institute was applied to the dataset to identify the significant effects of the sex of lamb (male and female), type of birth (single and twin), season of birth (rainy season and dry season), parity of dam (1, 2 and 3) and year of birth (2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004) on the observed birth weight and monthly weight up to 6 months of age. The models parameters (A, B and k), coefficient of determination (112), mean square error (MSE) were calculated using language of technical computing package Matlab(R), 2006. The mean values of A, B and k were substituted into each model to calculate the corresponding Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). Among the four growth functions, the Brody model has been selected for its accuracy of fit according to the higher R(2), lower MSE and A/C Finally, the parameters A, B and k were adjusted in Matlab(R) 2006 for the sex of lamb, year of birth, season of birth, birth type and the parity of ewe, providing a specific slope of the Brody growth curve. The results of this study suggest that Brody model can be useful for WAD sheep breeding in Betecoucou farm conditions through growth monitoring.

Breeding value accuracy estimates for growth traits using random regression and multi-trait models in Nelore cattle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Condições de saúde bucal e capacidade funcional em idosos

Population aging is one of the greatest challenges to contemporary public health and, in this perspective, the functional capacity emerges as an important feature in geriatric assessment. The oral health of elderly, in turn, deserves special attention because, historically, in the dental services, this population group was not considered a priority for attention, which is verified by high rates of edentulism found even among these individuals. The present study proposes to examine the relationship between oral health status and functional capacity in an elderly population. To this end, intra-oral epidemiological examination was performed to assess the degree of dental caries, periodontal status, use and need of prosthesis and the presence of lesions. Functional capacity was assessed by the Independence in Activities of Daily Living, which considers the independence or not in the performance of six self-care functions. Socioeconomic and demographic characteristics and general health status were also investigated, in view of the possibility of intervention of these variables in the investigated relation. An factor analysis of the principal components was conducted which resulted four indicators of oral health conditions, representative of the population studied. 441 seniors were enrolled with mean age of 71.7 (± 8.7) years, the majority being female (68%). Functional capacity was dichotomized into completely independent individuals (89.6%) and dependent on at least one of the functions considered (10.4%). There was an association between functional capacity and the indicators related to the presence of many teeth and dental caries, and to that associated with the use and need of prostheses. These associations in turn, lost statistical significance when adjusting for confounding variables, combined in separate models for each indicator. Some of these variables, however, remained associated with functional capacity. It is considered that the study of oral health status of elderly, associeted with the search for an association with functional capacity is important in the construction of indicators necessary for planning preventive and therapeutic interventions that reduce the risk for loss of ability in daily physical functions and their consequences, as the harm in the oral self-care

General solutions for some classes of interacting two field kinks

In this work we present some classes of models whose the corresponding two coupled first-order nonlinear equations can be put into a linear form, and consequently be solved completely. In these cases the so-called trial orbit method is completely unnecessary. We recall that some physically important models as, for instance, the problem of tiling a plane with a network of defects and polymer properties are in this class of models. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fermions bounded by kinks of false vacuum models

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Generalized partition function zeros of 1D spin models and their critical behavior at edge singularities

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Five-dimensional f(R) braneworld models

After incorporating f(R) gravity into the general braneworld sum rules scope, it is shown that some particular class of warped five-dimensional nonlinear braneworld models, which may be interesting for the hierarchy problem solution, still require a negative tension brane. For other classes of warp factors (suitable and not suitable for approaching the hierarchy problem) any negative brane tension in the compactification scheme is not necessary. In this vein, it is argued that, in the bulk f(R) gravity context, some types of warp factors may be useful for approaching the hierarchy problem and for evading the necessity of a negative brane tension in the compactification scheme.

Factors predictive of inappropriateness in requests for parenteral antimicrobials for therapeutic purposes: A study in a small teaching hospital in Brazil

Background: The identification of patterns of inappropriate antimicrobial prescriptions in hospitals contributes to the improvement of antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASP). Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study to identify predictors of inappropriateness in requests for parenteral antimicrobials (RPAs) in a teaching hospital with 285 beds. We reviewed 25% of RPAs for therapeutic purposes from y 2005. Appropriateness was evaluated according to current guidelines for antimicrobial therapy. We assessed predictors of inappropriateness through univariate and multivariate models. RPAs classified as 'appropriate' or 'probably appropriate' were selected as controls. Case groups comprised inappropriate RPAs, either in general or for specific errors. Results: Nine hundred and sixty-three RPAs were evaluated, 34.6% of which were considered inappropriate. In the multivariate analysis, general predictors of inappropriateness were: prescription on week-ends/holidays (odds ratio (OR) 1.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-2.28, p = 0.002), patient in the intensive care unit (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.11-2.23, p = 0.01), peritoneal infection (OR 2.15, 95% CI 1.27-3.65, p = 0.004), urinary tract infection (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.25 -2.87, p = 0.01), combination therapy with 2 or more antimicrobials (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.15-2.57, p = 0.008) and prescriptions including penicillins (OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.39-3.25, p = 0.001) or 1(st) generation cephalosporins (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.01-3.00, p = 0.048). Previous consultation with an infectious diseases (ID) specialist had a protective effect against inappropriate prescription (OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.24-0.50, p < 0.001). Factors independently associated with specific prescription errors varied. However, consultation with an ID specialist was protective against both unnecessary antimicrobial use (OR 0.04, 95% CI 0.01-0.26, p = 0.001) and requests for agents with an insufficient antimicrobial spectrum (OR 0.14, 95% CI 0.03-0.30, p = 0.01). Conclusions: Our results demonstrate the importance of previous consultation with an ID specialist in assuring the quality of prescriptions. Also, they highlight prescription patterns that should be approached by ASP policies.

The safe motherhood referral system to reduce cesarean sections and perinatal mortality - a cross-sectional study [1995-2006]

Background: In 2000, the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) set targets for reducing child mortality and improving maternal health by 2015.Objective: To evaluate the results of a new education and referral system for antenatal/intrapartum care as a strategy to reduce the rates of Cesarean sections (C-sections) and maternal/perinatal mortality.Methods: Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Botucatu Medical School, São Paulo State University/UNESP, Brazil. Population: 27,387 delivering women and 27,827 offspring. Data collection: maternal and perinatal data between 1995 and 2006 at the major level III and level II hospitals in Botucatu, Brazil following initiation of a safe motherhood education and referral system. Main outcome measures: Yearly rates of C-sections, maternal (/100,000 LB) and perinatal (/1000 births) mortality rates at both hospitals. Data analysis: Simple linear regression models were adjusted to estimate the referral system's annual effects on the total number of deliveries, C-section and perinatal mortality ratios in the two hospitals. The linear regression were assessed by residual analysis (Shapiro-Wilk test) and the influence of possible conflicting observations was evaluated by a diagnostic test (Leverage), with p < 0.05.Results: Over the time period evaluated, the overall C-section rate was 37.3%, there were 30 maternal deaths (maternal mortality ratio = 109.5/100,000 LB) and 660 perinatal deaths (perinatal mortality rate = 23.7/1000 births). The C-section rate decreased from 46.5% to 23.4% at the level II hospital while remaining unchanged at the level III hospital. The perinatal mortality rate decreased from 9.71 to 1.66/1000 births and from 60.8 to 39.6/1000 births at the level II and level III hospital, respectively. Maternal mortality ratios were 16.3/100,000 LB and 185.1/100,000 LB at the level II and level III hospitals. There was a shift from direct to indirect causes of maternal mortality.Conclusions: This safe motherhood referral system was a good strategy in reducing perinatal mortality and direct causes of maternal mortality and decreasing the overall rate of C-sections.

Prevalence and Correlates of Cognitive Impairment among the Elderly in a General Hospital

Aims: To estimate the prevalence and correlates of cognitive impairment (CI) among the elderly in a general hospital. Methods: A cross-sectional study, including 200 Brazilian inpatients aged 60 years or over, using the Mini Mental State Examination to evaluate CI (dependent variable), and the Geriatric Depression Scale and the Katz and Lawton Index to evaluate basic (BADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL). Results: 56% were women, 29% were dependent for BADL and 77.5% for IADL. The prevalence of CI was 29% and, in the logistic regression, it remained associated with higher age (1 74 years old), number of previous hospitalizations (1 3) and dependency for BADL (being dependent raised the odds of being cognitively impaired). Conclusions: It is essential to train the hospital staff to properly assist these patients, and to orient and support their caregivers. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

Applied models to biodegradation kinetics of lubricant and vegetable oils in wastewater

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comments about some species abundance patterns: classic, neutral, and niche partitioning models

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)