The neolithisation of Liguria (NW Italy): an environmental archaeological and palaeoenvironmental perspective

The archaeological evidence compiled for Liguria has enabled the formulation of a comprehensive model of Neolithic social, technological and economic development (∼7800–5700 cal yrs BP). The model indicates that during the Early and Middle Neolithic (∼7800–6300 cal yrs BP; ‘Impressed Ware’ and ‘Square Mouthed’ pottery cultures) human activity mainly focussed on low (coastal) and mid-altitude areas. By the Late Neolithic (∼6300–5700 cal yrs BP; ‘Chassey’ culture) farming practices were taking place over a wider range of altitudes and involved transhumant pastoralism. Complementary environmental archaeological and palaeoecological records from caves, open-air sites, lakes and mires indicate that human activities had a more significant impact on the environment than previously thought. This included clearance, especially Abies, Ulmus, Fraxinus and Tilia, and woodland utilisation and management (e.g. leaf foddering), as well as cereal cultivation and animal husbandry. The influence of Middle Holocene climatic changes, especially from ∼7800 cal yrs BP, on the direction of vegetation changes and socio-economic developments during the Neolithic remain uncertain.

Enrichment and ecosystem stability: effect of toxic food

Enrichment in resource availability theoretically destabilizes predator–prey dynamics (the paradox of enrichment). However, a minor change in the resource stoichiometry may make a prey toxic for the predator, and the presence of toxic prey affects the dynamics significantly. Here, theoretically we explore how, at increased carrying capacity, a toxic prey affects the oscillation or destabilization of predator–prey dynamics, and how its presence influences the growth of the predator as well as that of a palatable prey. Mathematical analysis determines the bounds on the food toxicity that allow the coexistence of a predator along with a palatable and a toxic prey. The overall results demonstrate that toxic food counteracts oscillation (destabilization) arising from enrichment of resource availability. Moreover, our results show that, at increased resource availability, toxic food that acts as a source of extra mortality may increase the abundance of the predator as well as that of the palatable prey.

The timing and causes of the Neolithic elm decline: new evidence from the Lower Thames Valley (London, UK)

Two new multi-proxy records of environmental change are provided from Horton Kirby Paper Mill and Old Seager Distillery in the Lower Thames Valley. Each site has evidence for a decline in elm woodland, which at Horton Kirby Paper Mill is recorded earlier than any other published record from the British Isles: sometime between 7320 and 7240 cal BP. Scolytus scolytus/S. multistriatus (the vectors for Dutch elm disease) are recorded after the decline in both sequences, adding to the number of sites with such evidence in the British Isles. Evidence of paludification and human activity are also recorded at the time of the elm decline reinforcing the multi-causal hypothesis. Integration of these results with 21 palaeoenvironmental records has produced a large number of well-dated, multiproxy records of the elm decline in this part of the UK. On the basis of this dataset, a classification system for categorising the relationships between the causal factors of the elm decline is proposed and recommended for future studies.

Spin polarization, orbital occupation and band gap opening in vanadium dioxide: the effect of screened Hartree–Fock exchange

The metal–insulator transition of VO2 so far has evaded an accurate description by density functional theory. The screened hybrid functional of Heyd, Scuseria and Ernzerhof leads to reasonable solutions for both the low-temperature monoclinic and high-temperature rutile phases only if spin polarization is excluded from the calculations. We explore whether a satisfactory agreement with experiment can be achieved by tuning the fraction of Hartree Fock exchange (a) in the density functional. It is found that two branches of locally stable solutions exist for the rutile phase for 12:5% 6 a 6 20%. One is metallic and has the correct stability as compared to the monoclinic phase, the other is insulating with lower energy than the metallic branch. We discuss these observations based on the V 3d orbital occupations and conclude that a ¼ 10% is the best possible choice for spin-polarized VO2 calculations.

Regional and monthly and clear-sky aerosol direct radiative effect (and forcing) derived from the GlobAEROSOL-AATSR satellite aerosol product

Using the GlobAEROSOL-AATSR dataset, estimates of the instantaneous, clear-sky, direct aerosol radiative effect and radiative forcing have been produced for the year 2006. Aerosol Robotic Network sun-photometer measurements have been used to characterise the random and systematic error in the GlobAEROSOL product for 22 regions covering the globe. Representative aerosol properties for each region were derived from the results of a wide range of literature sources and, along with the de-biased GlobAEROSOL AODs, were used to drive an offline version of the Met Office unified model radiation scheme. In addition to the mean AOD, best-estimate run of the radiation scheme, a range of additional calculations were done to propagate uncertainty estimates in the AOD, optical properties, surface albedo and errors due to the temporal and spatial averaging of the AOD fields. This analysis produced monthly, regional estimates of the clear-sky aerosol radiative effect and its uncertainty, which were combined to produce annual, global mean values of (−6.7±3.9)Wm−2 at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and (−12±6)Wm−2 at the surface. These results were then used to give estimates of regional, clear-sky aerosol direct radiative forcing, using modelled pre-industrial AOD fields for the year 1750 calculated for the AEROCOM PRE experiment. However, as it was not possible to quantify the uncertainty in the pre-industrial aerosol loading, these figures can only be taken as indicative and their uncertainties as lower bounds on the likely errors. Although the uncertainty on aerosol radiative effect presented here is considerably larger than most previous estimates, the explicit inclusion of the major sources of error in the calculations suggest that they are closer to the true constraint on this figure from similar methodologies, and point to the need for more, improved estimates of both global aerosol loading and aerosol optical properties.

Civilian casualties and nuclear weapons: the application of the rule of distinction

This chapter considers the possible use in armed conflict of low-yield (also known as tactical) nuclear weapons. The Legality of the Threat or Use of Nuclear Weapons Advisory Opinion maintained that it is a cardinal principle that a State must never make civilians an object of attack and must consequently never use weapons that are incapable of distinguishing between civilian and military targets. As international humanitarian law applies equally to any use of nuclear weapons, it is argued that there is no use of nuclear weapons that could spare civilian casualties particularly if you view the long-term health and environmental effects of the use of such weaponry.

A parallel formulation for the simulation of a generic branch predictor

A parallel formulation for the simulation of a branch prediction algorithm is presented. This parallel formulation identifies independent tasks in the algorithm which can be executed concurrently. The parallel implementation is based on the multithreading model and two parallel programming platforms: pthreads and Cilk++. Improvement in execution performance by up to 7 times is observed for a generic 2-bit predictor in a 12-core multiprocessor system.

Human gut microbiota and its relationship to health and disease

Probiotics are live microorganisms that confer a health benefit on the host when administered in appropriate amounts. Over 700 randomized, controlled, human studies have been conducted with probiotics thus far, with the results providing strong support for the use of probiotics in the clinical prevention or treatment of gastrointestinal tract disorders and metabolic syndrome. The present review is based on webinar presentations that were developed by the American Gastroenterological Association (AGA) in partnership with the International Scientific Association for Probiotics and Prebiotics (ISAPP) and the North American branch of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI North America). The presentations provided gastroenterologists and researchers with fundamental and current scientific information on the influence of gut microbiota on human health and disease, as well as clinical intervention strategies and practical guidelines for the use of probiotics and prebiotics.

Theoretical insight into diagnosing observation error correlations using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics

To improve the quantity and impact of observations used in data assimilation it is necessary to take into account the full, potentially correlated, observation error statistics. A number of methods for estimating correlated observation errors exist, but a popular method is a diagnostic that makes use of statistical averages of observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis residuals. The accuracy of the results it yields is unknown as the diagnostic is sensitive to the difference between the exact background and exact observation error covariances and those that are chosen for use within the assimilation. It has often been stated in the literature that the results using this diagnostic are only valid when the background and observation error correlation length scales are well separated. Here we develop new theory relating to the diagnostic. For observations on a 1D periodic domain we are able to the show the effect of changes in the assumed error statistics used in the assimilation on the estimated observation error covariance matrix. We also provide bounds for the estimated observation error variance and eigenvalues of the estimated observation error correlation matrix. We demonstrate that it is still possible to obtain useful results from the diagnostic when the background and observation error length scales are similar. In general, our results suggest that when correlated observation errors are treated as uncorrelated in the assimilation, the diagnostic will underestimate the correlation length scale. We support our theoretical results with simple illustrative examples. These results have potential use for interpreting the derived covariances estimated using an operational system.

The curious case of the camelthorn: competition, coexistence and nest-site limitation in a multispecies mutualism

Myrmecophyte plants house ants in domatia in exchange for protection from herbivores. Ant-myrmecophyte mutualisms exhibit two general patterns due to competition between ants for plant occupancy: i) domatia nest-sites are a limiting resource and ii) each individual plant hosts one ant species at a time. However, individual camelthorn trees (Vachellia erioloba) typically host two to four ant species simultaneously, often coexisting in adjacent domatia on the same branch. Such fine-grain spatial coexistence brings into question the conventional wisdom on ant-myrmecophyte mutualisms. Camelthorn ants appear not to be nest-site limited, despite low abundance of suitable domatia, and have random distributions of nest-sites within and across trees. These patterns suggest a lack of competition between ants for domatia and contrast strongly with other ant-myrmecophyte systems. Comparison of this unusual case with others suggests that spatial scale is crucial to coexistence or competitive exclusion involving multiple ant species. Furthermore, coexistence may be facilitated when co-occurring ant species diverge strongly on at least one niche axis. Our conclusions provide recommendations for future ant-myrmecophyte research, particularly in utilising multispecies systems to further our understanding of mutualism biology.

Low-grade inflammation, diet composition and health: current research evidence and its translation

The importance of chronic low-grade inflammation in the pathology of numerous age-related chronic conditions is now clear. An unresolved inflammatory response is likely to be involved from the early stages of disease development. The present position paper is the most recent in a series produced by the International Life Sciences Institute's European Branch (ILSI Europe). It is co-authored by the speakers from a 2013 workshop led by the Obesity and Diabetes Task Force entitled ‘Low-grade inflammation, a high-grade challenge: biomarkers and modulation by dietary strategies’. The latest research in the areas of acute and chronic inflammation and cardiometabolic, gut and cognitive health is presented along with the cellular and molecular mechanisms underlying inflammation–health/disease associations. The evidence relating diet composition and early-life nutrition to inflammatory status is reviewed. Human epidemiological and intervention data are thus far heavily reliant on the measurement of inflammatory markers in the circulation, and in particular cytokines in the fasting state, which are recognised as an insensitive and highly variable index of tissue inflammation. Potential novel kinetic and integrated approaches to capture inflammatory status in humans are discussed. Such approaches are likely to provide a more discriminating means of quantifying inflammation–health/disease associations, and the ability of diet to positively modulate inflammation and provide the much needed evidence to develop research portfolios that will inform new product development and associated health claims.

Late Würm and Early-Middle Holocene environmental change and human activities in the Northern Apennines, Italy

An enhanced radiocarbon-dated pollen-stratigraphical record from Rovegno (Liguria, 812m asl), northern Apennines (Italy), has provided a history of vegetation succession from before 17,056-16,621 cal yrs BP to the present day. The record indicates the transition from open Pinus woodland to Artemisia dominated grassland, and finally Juniperus shrubland during the late Würm. This is succeeded by Betula and Pinus woodland, and the expansion of thermophilous taxa, namely Abies, Corylus and Quercus during the Late Würm Lateglacial Interstadial. The ‘Younger Dryas’ is possibly represented by an increase in Betula and Artemisia. During the early Holocene, mixed coniferous-deciduous woodland is dominant with Quercus, as well as Abies, Fagus and Corylus. Fagus woodland becomes established sometime before 6488-6318 cal yrs BP, but never becomes a major component of the woodland cover. Throughout the middle Holocene, Abies woodland fl uctuates, with marked declines between 6488-6318 cal yrs BP and 5287-4835 cal yrs BP, although the cause remains uncertain. Finally, the paper evaluates the application of non-pollen palynomorphs, especially coprophilous fungal spores, at Prato Spilla ‘A’ (Emilia Romagna) and concludes that greater caution must be used when interpreting middle Holocene human activity based upon pollen data alone

Conditioning and preconditioning of the optimal state estimation problem

Optimal state estimation is a method that requires minimising a weighted, nonlinear, least-squares objective function in order to obtain the best estimate of the current state of a dynamical system. Often the minimisation is non-trivial due to the large scale of the problem, the relative sparsity of the observations and the nonlinearity of the objective function. To simplify the problem the solution is often found via a sequence of linearised objective functions. The condition number of the Hessian of the linearised problem is an important indicator of the convergence rate of the minimisation and the expected accuracy of the solution. In the standard formulation the convergence is slow, indicating an ill-conditioned objective function. A transformation to different variables is often used to ameliorate the conditioning of the Hessian by changing, or preconditioning, the Hessian. There is only sparse information in the literature for describing the causes of ill-conditioning of the optimal state estimation problem and explaining the effect of preconditioning on the condition number. This paper derives descriptive theoretical bounds on the condition number of both the unpreconditioned and preconditioned system in order to better understand the conditioning of the problem. We use these bounds to explain why the standard objective function is often ill-conditioned and why a standard preconditioning reduces the condition number. We also use the bounds on the preconditioned Hessian to understand the main factors that affect the conditioning of the system. We illustrate the results with simple numerical experiments.

Inter-comparison of stratospheric mean-meridional circulation and eddy mixing among six reanalysis data sets

The stratospheric mean-meridional circulation (MMC) and eddy mixing are compared among six meteorological reanalysis data sets: NCEP-NCAR, NCEP-CFSR, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, JRA-25, and JRA-55 for the period 1979–2012. The reanalysis data sets produced using advanced systems (i.e., NCEP-CFSR, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55) generally reveal a weaker MMC in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with those produced using older systems (i.e., NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, and JRA-25). The mean mixing strength differs largely among the data products. In the NH lower stratosphere, the contribution of planetary-scale mixing is larger in the new data sets than in the old data sets, whereas that of small-scale mixing is weaker in the new data sets. Conventional data assimilation techniques introduce analysis increments without maintaining physical balance, which may have caused an overly strong MMC and spurious small-scale eddies in the old data sets. At the NH mid-latitudes, only ERA-Interim reveals a weakening MMC trend in the deep branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC). The relative importance of the eddy mixing compared with the mean-meridional transport in the subtropical lower stratosphere shows increasing trends in ERA-Interim and JRA-55; this together with the weakened MMC in the deep branch may imply an increasing age-of-air (AoA) in the NH middle stratosphere in ERA-Interim. Overall, discrepancies between the different variables and trends therein as derived from the different reanalyses are still relatively large, suggesting that more investments in these products are needed in order to obtain a consolidated picture of observed changes in the BDC and the mechanisms that drive them.