A Survey of the Relationship between Climatic Heat Stress Indices and Fundamental Milk Components Considering Uncertainty

The main purpose of this study is to assess the relationship between four bioclimatic indices for cattle (environmental stress, heat load, modified heat load, and respiratory rate predictor indices) and three main milk components (fat, protein, and milk yield) considering uncertainty. The climate parameters used to calculate the climate indices were taken from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA) reanalysis from 2002 to 2010. Cow milk data were considered for the same period from April to September when the cows use the natural pasture. The study is based on a linear regression analysis using correlations as a summarizing diagnostic. Bootstrapping is used to represent uncertainty information in the confidence intervals. The main results identify an interesting relationship between the milk compounds and climate indices under all climate conditions. During spring, there are reasonably high correlations between the fat and protein concentrations vs. the climate indices, whereas there are insignificant dependencies between the milk yield and climate indices. During summer, the correlation between the fat and protein concentrations with the climate indices decreased in comparison with the spring results, whereas the correlation for the milk yield increased. This methodology is suggested for studies investigating the impacts of climate variability/change on food and agriculture using short term data considering uncertainty.

The Effect of Climate Variability on Main Components of Cow Milk in Iran

The main purpose of this study is to assess the relationship between six bioclimatic indices for cattle (temperature humidity (THI), environmental stress (ESI), equivalent temperature (ESI), heat load (HLI), modified heat load (HLInew) and respiratory rate predictor(RRP)) and fundamental milk components (fat, protein, and milk yield) considering uncertainty. The climate parameters used to calculate the climate indices were taken from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA) reanalysis from 2002 to 2010. Cow milk data were considered for the same period from April to September when cows use natural pasture, with possibility for cows to choose to stay in the barn or to graze on the pasture in the pasturing system. The study is based on a linear regression analysis using correlations as a summarizing diagnostic. Bootstrapping is used to represent uncertainty estimation through resampling in the confidence intervals. To find the relationships between climate indices (THI, ETI, HLI, HLInew, ESI and RRP) and main components of cow milk (fat, protein and yield), multiple liner regression is applied. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) techniques are applied to select the best model for milk predictands with the smallest number of climate predictors. Cross validation is used to avoid over-fitting. Based on results of investigation the effect of heat stress indices on milk compounds separately, we suggest the use of ESI and RRP in the summer and ESI in the spring. THI and HLInew are suggested for fat content and HLInew also is suggested for protein content in the spring season. The best linear models are found in spring between milk yield as predictands and THI, ESI,HLI, ETI and RRP as predictors with p-value < 0.001 and R2 0.50, 0.49. In summer, milk yield with independent variables of THI, ETI and ESI show the highest relation (p-value < 0.001) with R2 (0.69). For fat and protein the results are only marginal. It is strongly suggested that new and significant indices are needed to control critical heat stress conditions that consider more predictors of the effect of climate variability on animal products, such as sunshine duration, quality of pasture, the number of days of stress (NDS), the color of skin with attention to large black spots, and categorical predictors such as breed, welfare facility, and management system. This methodology is suggested for studies investigating the impacts of climate variability/change on food quality/security, animal science and agriculture using short term data considering uncertainty or data collection is expensive, difficult, or data with gaps.

Sistema de registo de sacramento (batismo)

Este projeto tem como objetivo apresentar um protótipo de um sistema de informação web, para o registo de sacramentos nas paróquias da Diocese de Mindelo. O volume de dados e informação referente aos processos dos sacramentos, cresce dia após dia o que torna o sistema atual nas paróquias, muito complexo. Com intenção de gerir de forma eficaz e eficiente a informação, que é essencial para tomada de decisão em qualquer organização, propôs-se desenvolver um protótipo para um sistema que permite efetuar o registo do sacramento do batismo e no futuro implementar os outros sacramentos no sistema. Para se alcançar o objetivo citado acima, utilizou-se o modelo de desenvolvimento de software ICONIX, uma metodologia que possui um alto grau de aceitação em empresas de software por sua racionalização em questões relacionadas à documentação, entrevistou-se alguns funcionários das paróquias, consultou-se e analisou-se os documentos referentes à DM, e finalmente desenhou-se o sistema proposto utilizando basicamente as tecnologias: Bootstrap, PHP e JavaScript, e para ambiente de desenvolvimento a plataforma AMPPS. Entretanto, com a realização deste projeto, espera-se como resultado um sistema que permita resolver problemas tais como: a demora na emissão de certidões, extratos e a dificuldade de obter informação atualizada sobre os sacramentos.

EUNIS habitat's thresholds for the Western coast of the Iberian Peninsula — A Portuguese case study

The European Nature Information System (EUNIS) has been implemented for the establishment of a marine European habitats inventory. Its hierarchical classification is defined and relies on environmental variables which primarily constrain biological communities (e.g. substrate types, sea energy level, depth and light penetration). The EUNIS habitat classification scheme relies on thresholds (e.g. fraction of light and energy) which are based on expert judgment or on the empirical analysis of the above environmental data. The present paper proposes to establish and validate an appropriate threshold for energy classes (high, moderate and low) and for subtidal biological zonation (infralittoral and circalittoral) suitable for EUNIS habitat classification of the Western Iberian coast. Kineticwave-induced energy and the fraction of photosynthetically available light exerted on the marine bottom were respectively assigned to the presence of kelp (Saccorhiza polyschides, Laminaria hyperborea and Laminaria ochroleuca) and seaweed species in general. Both data were statistically described, ordered fromthe largest to the smallest and percentile analyseswere independently performed. The threshold between infralittoral and circalittoral was based on the first quartile while the ‘moderate energy’ class was established between the 12.5 and 87.5 percentiles. To avoid data dependence on sampling locations and assess the confidence interval a bootstrap technique was applied. According to this analysis,more than 75% of seaweeds are present at locations where more than 3.65% of the surface light reaches the sea bottom. The range of energy levels estimated using S. polyschides data, indicate that on the IberianWest coast the ‘moderate energy’ areas are between 0.00303 and 0.04385 N/m2 of wave-induced energy. The lack of agreement between different studies in different regions of Europe suggests the need for more standardization in the future. However, the obtained thresholds in the present study will be very useful in the near future to implement and establish the Iberian EUNIS habitats inventory.

Trastornos gastrointestinales funcionales en menores de dos años: prevalencia y factores asociados en una IPS Bogotá 2015 - 2016

Antecedentes: Los trastornos gastrointestinales funcionales de la infancia (TGFI) son manifestaciones gastrointestinales crónicas en cualquier parte del tubo digestivo sin daño estructural o bioquímico los cuales se pueden clasificar según los criterios de ROMA III. Se desconoce su prevalencia en niños latinoamericanos menores de 4 años. Objetivos: Estimar la prevalencia de los TGFI y cada una de sus entidades en menores de 2 años y explorar sus factores asociados. Metodología: Estudio corte trasversal con muestra aleatoria (n=323) tomada de la población de una institución de salud en la ciudad de Bogotá, realizando mediante encuesta diligenciada por los padres. El análisis se realizó por medio del software SPSS© utilizando estadística descriptiva y análisis bivariado, como medida de asociación se calculó las Razones de Disparidad (RD) con IC95%. Resultados: Se encontró una prevalencia de TGFI de 22.1%, diarrea funcional 14.6%, disquecia 12%, regurgitación 9.2%, estreñimiento 3.3%, vómito cíclico 2%, cólico infantil 1.6% y rumiación 0%. La administración de tetero durante la estancia hospitalaria neonatal se asocia con vómito cíclico RD= 6 IC 95% (1.076 – 33.447) p=0.021. La administración de formula infantil durante los primeros 6 meses de vida se asocia con diarrea funcional RD= 0.348 IC 95% (0.149 – 0.813) p=0.012 Conclusiónes: Los TGFI son una causa frecuente de molestias en los menores de 2 años de edad. Sugerimos realizar la validación del cuestionario “questionnaire on infant/toddler gastrointestinal symptoms rome version III” con el fin de mejorar la validez y precisión de los hallazgos en estudios futuros.

Análisis del TLC entre Estados Unidos-Colombia en los estados de Idaho, Illinois e Indiana

La Escuela de Administración viene desarrollando proyectos de investigación encaminados a identificar las oportunidades de las empresas colombianas frente al Tratado de Libre Comercio con Estados Unidos. Por lo que este estudio busca entender por qué Estados Unidos es el principal socio de Colombia en términos de exportaciones. Dentro del presente estudio se presentan cifras de Colombia y Estados Unidos desde el año 2012 hasta el año 2015, los cuales permitieron identificar, analizar y estudiar la relación económica, el comportamiento en el tiempo y la evolución de ambos países. Con la entrada que tenía el TLC, el gobierno de Colombia y EE.UU. trataron de construir la confianza a mediano y largo plazo para los empresarios. Así que el trabajo se centró en analizar paso a paso las principales características que hicieron el TLC una de las relaciones más importantes que ha tenido hasta ahora el país, sin dejar de lado el contexto económico global y el contexto bilateral. Mediante WISER Trade la cual es una base de datos de flujos de comercio internacional, se recopilo la información necesaria para determinar cuáles son las principales oportunidades comerciales y se determinó que el sector agropecuario, y el sector industrial reflejan una alta competitividad con los Estados Americanos de Illinois, Indiana e Idaho, reflejando en las cifras de 2012 a 2015 un incremento en las exportaciones.

Curva de aprendizaje para ecografía cardiaca en residentes de primer y segundo año de medicina crítica de la universidad del rosario en el año 2016

La ecografía básica cardiaca (ECB) es una herramienta útil en la Unidad de Cuidados intensivos al facilitar la realización de ciertas intervenciones. No se ha definido el número de repeticiones necesarias para obtener un nivel de competencia adecuado. La evidencia encontrada indica un número mínimo de cincuenta repeticiones, para alcanzar cierto grado de habilidad.

Caracterización sociodemográfica de las enfermedades huérfanas en Colombia

Las enfermedades huérfanas en Colombia, se definen como aquellas crónicamente debilitantes, que amenazan la vida, de baja prevalencia (menor 1/5000) y alta complejidad. Se estima que a nivel mundial existen entre 6000 a 8000 enfermedades raras diferentes(1). Varios países a nivel mundial individual o colectivamente, en los últimos años han creado políticas e incentivos para la investigación y protección de los pacientes con enfermedades raras. Sin embargo, a pesar del creciente número de publicaciones; la información sobre su etiología, fisiología, historia natural y datos epidemiológicos persiste escasa o ausente. Los registros de pacientes, son una valiosa herramienta para la caracterización de las enfermedades, su manejo y desenlaces con o sin tratamiento. Permiten mejorar políticas de salud pública y cuidado del paciente, contribuyendo a mejorar desenlaces sociales, económicos y de calidad de vida. En Colombia, bajo el decreto 1954 de 2012 y las resoluciones 3681 de 2013 y 0430 de 2013 se creó el fundamento legal para la creación de un registro nacional de enfermedades huérfanas. El presente estudio busca determinar la caracterización socio-demográfica y la prevalencia de las enfermedades huérfanas en Colombia en el periodo 2013. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio observacional de corte transversal de fuente secundaria sobre pacientes con enfermedades huérfanas en el territorio nacional; basándose en el registro nacional de enfermedades huérfanas obtenido por el Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social en el periodo 2013 bajo la normativa del decreto 1954 de 2012 y las resoluciones 3681 de 2013 y 0430 de 2013. Las bases de datos obtenidas fueron re-categorizadas en Excel versión 15.17 para la extracción de datos y su análisis estadístico posterior, fue realizado en el paquete estadístico para las ciencias sociales (SPSS v.20, Chicago, IL). Resultados: Se encontraron un total de 13173 pacientes con enfermedades huérfanas para el 2013. De estos, el 53.96% (7132) eran de género femenino y el 46.03% (6083) masculino; la mediana de la edad fue de 28 años con un rango inter-cuartil de 39 años, el 9% de los pacientes presentaron discapacidad. El registro contenía un total de 653 enfermedades huérfanas; el 34% del total de las enfermedades listadas en nuestro país (2). Las patologías más frecuentes fueron el Déficit Congénito del Factor VIII, Miastenia Grave, Enfermedad de Von Willebrand, Estatura Baja por Anomalía de Hormona de Crecimiento y Displasia Broncopulmonar. Discusión: Se estimó que aproximadamente 3.3 millones de colombianos debían tener una enfermedad huérfana para el 2013. El registro nacional logró recolectar datos de 13173 (0.4%). Este bajo número de pacientes, marca un importante sub-registro que se debe al uso de los códigos CIE-10, desconocimiento del personal de salud frente a las enfermedades huérfanas y clasificación errónea de los pacientes. Se encontraron un total de 653 enfermedades, un 34% de las enfermedades reportadas en el listado nacional de enfermedades huérfanas (2) y un 7% del total de enfermedades reportadas en ORPHANET para el periodo 2013 (3). Conclusiones: La recolección de datos y la sensibilización sobre las enfermedades huérfanas al personal de salud, es una estrategia de vital importancia para el diagnóstico temprano, medidas específicas de control e intervenciones de los pacientes. El identificar apropiadamente a los pacientes con este tipo de patologías, permite su ingreso en el registro y por ende mejora el sub-registro de datos. Sin embargo, cabe aclarar que el panorama ideal sería, el uso de un sistema de recolección diferente al CIE-10 y que abarque en mayor medida la totalidad de las enfermedades huérfanas.

La semilla de la discordia: un estudio de la influencia del Régimen Alimentario Corporativo en la construcción de políticas públicas alimentarias en Colombia

El hambre es un tema fundamental dentro de la agenda política internacional en la actualidad. Diariamente, según la FAO, mueren alrededor de 24.000 personas a causa de no ingerir alimentos. Las estrategias planteadas por parte de las empresas y los gobiernos están enfocadas a generar una mayor producción de alimentos para disminuir el hambre y garantizar la seguridad alimentaria. Este artículo explica cómo el significado del alimento se transformó para ser entendido como mercancía, a partir del establecimiento del régimen alimentario corporativo. Las normas aquí creadas influyen en la construcción de las políticas públicas nacionales. Este estudio de caso evidencia la relación entre ambas en Colombia a partir del 2008 y el nivel de dependencia alimentaria y de insumos químicos del país hacia actores internacionales, analizado a partir de la importación y producción de alimentos. Finalmente, este trabajo investigativo permitirá determinar el estado de la soberanía alimentaria en Colombia.

Avaliação de métodos de estimação da variância em amostras complexas

A necessidade de conhecer uma população impulsiona um processo de recolha e análise de informação. Usualmente é muito difícil ou impossível estudar a totalidade da população, daí a importância do estudo com recurso a amostras. Conceber um estudo por amostragem é um processo complexo, desde antes da recolha dos dados até a fase de análise dos mesmos. Na maior parte dos estudos utilizam-se combinações de vários métodos probabilísticos de amostragem para seleção de uma amostra, que se pretende representativa da população, denominado delineamento de amostragem complexo. O conhecimento dos erros de amostragem é necessário à correta interpretação dos resultados de inquéritos e à avaliação dos seus planos de amostragem. Em amostras complexas, têm sido usadas aproximações ajustadas à natureza complexa do plano da amostra para a estimação da variância, sendo as mais utilizadas: o método de linearização Taylor e as técnicas de reamostragem e replicação. O principal objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar o desempenho dos estimadores usuais da variância em amostras complexas. Inspirado num conjunto de dados reais foram geradas três populações com características distintas, das quais foram sorteadas amostras com diferentes delineamentos de amostragem, na expectativa de obter alguma indicação sobre em que situações se deve optar por cada um dos estimadores da variância. Com base nos resultados obtidos, podemos concluir que o desempenho dos estimadores da variância da média amostral de Taylor, Jacknife e Bootstrap varia com o tipo de delineamento e população. De um modo geral, o estimador de Bootstrap é o menos preciso e em delineamentos estratificados os estimadores de Taylor e Jackknife fornecem os mesmos resultados; Evaluation of variance estimation methods in complex samples ABSTRACT: The need to know a population drives a process of collecting and analyzing information. Usually is to hard or even impossible to study the whole population, hence the importance of sampling. Framing a study by sampling is a complex process, from before the data collection until the data analysis. Many studies have used combinations of various probabilistic sampling methods for selecting a representative sample of the population, calling it complex sampling design. Knowledge of sampling errors is essential for correct interpretation of the survey results and evaluation of the sampling plans. In complex samples to estimate the variance has been approaches adjusted to the complex nature of the sample plane. The most common are: the linearization method of Taylor and techniques of resampling and replication. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of usual estimators of the variance in complex samples. Inspired on real data we will generate three populations with distinct characteristics. From this populations will be drawn samples using different sampling designs. In the end we intend to get some lights about in which situations we should opt for each one of the variance estimators. Our results show that the performance of the variance estimators of sample mean Taylor, Jacknife and Bootstrap varies with the design and population. In general, the Bootstrap estimator is less precise and in stratified design Taylor and Jackknife estimators provide the same results.

Customer Loyalty toward grocery retailing service: a multidimensional approach to costumer perceived value

Structured abstract Purpose: To deepen, in grocery retail context, the roles of consumer perceived value and consumer satisfaction, as antecedents’ dimensions of customer loyalty intentions. Design/Methodology/approach: Also employing a short version (12-items) of the original 19-item PERVAL scale of Sweeney & Soutar (2001), a structural equation modeling approach was applied to investigate statistical properties of the indirect influence on loyalty of a reflective second order customer perceived value model. The performance of three alternative estimation methods was compared through bootstrapping techniques. Findings: Results provided i) support for the use of the short form of the PERVAL scale in measuring consumer perceived value; ii) the influence of the four highly correlated independent latent predictors on satisfaction was well summarized by a higher-order reflective specification of consumer perceived value; iii) emotional and functional dimensions were determinants for the relationship with the retailer; iv) parameter’s bias with the three methods of estimation was only significant for bootstrap small sample sizes. Research limitations:/implications: Future research is needed to explore the use of the short form of the PERVAL scale in more homogeneous groups of consumers. Originality/value: Firstly, to indirectly explain customer loyalty mediated by customer satisfaction it was adopted a recent short form of PERVAL scale and a second order reflective conceptualization of value. Secondly, three alternative estimation methods were used and compared through bootstrapping and simulation procedures.

Mapping spatial and temporal potassium balances in Brazilian soils of south-west Goias.

Introduction: Brazil, is one of the main agricultural producers in the world ranking 1st in the production of sugarcane, coffee and oranges. It is also 2nd as world producer of soybeans and a leader in the harvested yields of many other crops. The annual consumption of mineral fertilizers exceeds 20 million mt, 30% of which corresponds to potash fertilizers (ANDA, 2006). From this statistic it may be supposed that fertilizer application in Brazil is rather high, compared with many other countries. However, even if it is assumed that only one fourth of this enormous 8.5 million km2 territory is used for agriculture, average levels of fertilizer application per hectare of arable land are not high enough for sustainable production. One of the major constraints is the relatively low natural fertility status of the soils which contain excessive Fe and Al oxides. Agriculture is also often practised on sandy soils so that the heavy rainfall causes large losses of nutrients through leaching. In general, nutrient removal by crops such as sugarcane and tropical fruits is much more than the average nutrient application via fertilization, especially in regions with a long history of agricultural production. In the recently developed areas, especially in the Cerrado (Brazilian savanna) where agriculture has expanded since 1980, soils are even poorer than in the "old" agricultural regions, and high costs of mineral fertilizers have become a significant input factor in determining soybean, maize and cotton planting. The consumption of mineral fertilizers throughout Brazil is very uneven. According to the 1995/96 Agricultural Census, only in eight of the total of 26 Brazilian states, were 50 per cent or more of the farms treated "systematically" with mineral fertilizers; in many states it was less than 25 per cent, and in five states even less than 12 per cent (Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics; Censo Agropecuario1995/96, Instituto Brazileiro de Geografia e Estadistica; IBGE, www.ibge.gov.br). The geographical application distribution pattern of mineral fertilizers may be considered as an important field of research. Understanding geographical disparities in fertilization level requires a complex approach. This includes evaluation of the availability of nutrients in the soil (and related soil properties e.g. CEC and texture), the input of nutrients with fertilizer application, and the removal of nutrients by harvested yields. When all these data are compiled, it is possible to evaluate the balance of particular nutrients for certain areas, and make conclusions as to where agricultural practices should be optimized. This kind of research is somewhat complicated, because it relies on completely different sources of data, usually from incomparable data sources, e.g. soil characteristics attributed to soil type areas, in contrast to yields by administrative regions, or farms. A priority tool in this case is the Geographical Information System (GIS), which enables attribution of data from different fields to the same territorial units, and makes possible integration of these data in an "inputoutput" model, where "input" is the natural availability of a nutrient in the soil plus fertilization, and "output" export of the same nutrient with the removed harvested yield.

Prediction Nomogram for 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT in different clinical settings of PSA failure after radical treatment for Prostate Cancer

Objective The objective of this study was to develop a clinical nomogram to predict gallium-68 prostate-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography/computed tomography (68Ga-PSMA-11-PET/CT) positivity in different clinical settings of PSA failure. Materials and methods Seven hundred three (n = 703) prostate cancer (PCa) patients with confirmed PSA failure after radical therapy were enrolled. Patients were stratified according to different clinical settings (first-time biochemical recurrence [BCR]: group 1; BCR after salvage therapy: group 2; biochemical persistence after radical prostatectomy [BCP]: group 3; advanced stage PCa before second-line systemic therapies: group 4). First, we assessed 68Ga-PSMA-11-PET/CT positivity rate. Second, multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to determine predictors of positive scan. Third, regression-based coefficients were used to develop a nomogram predicting positive 68Ga-PSMA-11-PET/CT result and 200 bootstrap resamples were used for internal validation. Fourth, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to identify the most informative nomogram’s derived cut-off. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was implemented to quantify nomogram’s clinical benefit. Results 68Ga-PSMA-11-PET/CT overall positivity rate was 51.2%, while it was 40.3% in group 1, 54% in group 2, 60.5% in group 3, and 86.9% in group 4 (p < 0.001). At multivariable analyses, ISUP grade, PSA, PSA doubling time, and clinical setting were independent predictors of a positive scan (all p ≤ 0.04). A nomogram based on covariates included in the multivariate model demonstrated a bootstrap-corrected accuracy of 82%. The nomogram-derived best cut-off value was 40%. In DCA, the nomogram revealed clinical net benefit of > 10%. Conclusions This novel nomogram proved its good accuracy in predicting a positive scan, with values ≥ 40% providing the most informative cut-off in counselling patients to 68Ga-PSMA-11-PET/CT. This tool might be important as a guide to clinicians in the best use of PSMA-based PET imaging.

Frequency domain analysis of stationary time series

This thesis provides a necessary and sufficient condition for asymptotic efficiency of a nonparametric estimator of the generalised autocovariance function of a Gaussian stationary random process. The generalised autocovariance function is the inverse Fourier transform of a power transformation of the spectral density, and encompasses the traditional and inverse autocovariance functions. Its nonparametric estimator is based on the inverse discrete Fourier transform of the same power transformation of the pooled periodogram. The general result is then applied to the class of Gaussian stationary ARMA processes and its implications are discussed. We illustrate that for a class of contrast functionals and spectral densities, the minimum contrast estimator of the spectral density satisfies a Yule-Walker system of equations in the generalised autocovariance estimator. Selection of the pooling parameter, which characterizes the nonparametric estimator of the generalised autocovariance, controlling its resolution, is addressed by using a multiplicative periodogram bootstrap to estimate the finite-sample distribution of the estimator. A multivariate extension of recently introduced spectral models for univariate time series is considered, and an algorithm for the coefficients of a power transformation of matrix polynomials is derived, which allows to obtain the Wold coefficients from the matrix coefficients characterizing the generalised matrix cepstral models. This algorithm also allows the definition of the matrix variance profile, providing important quantities for vector time series analysis. A nonparametric estimator based on a transformation of the smoothed periodogram is proposed for estimation of the matrix variance profile.