A Behavioural Model of Choice in the Presence of Decision Conflict

This paper proposes a model of choice that does not assume completeness of the decision maker’s preferences. The model explains in a natural way, and within a unified framework of choice when preference-incomparable options are present, four behavioural phenomena: the attraction effect, choice deferral, the strengthening of the attraction effect when deferral is per-missible, and status quo bias. The key element in the proposed decision rule is that an individual chooses an alternative from a menu if it is worse than no other alternative in that menu and is also better than at least one. Utility-maximising behaviour is included as a special case when preferences are complete. The relevance of the partial dominance idea underlying the proposed choice procedure is illustrated with an intuitive generalisation of weakly dominated strategies and their iterated deletion in games with vector payoffs.

Personality traits and behavioural and psychological symptoms in patients with mild cognitive impairment.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Both personality changes and behavioural and psychological symptoms (BPS) may be associated with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in later life and help identify incipient dementia. We wished to investigate the links between personality and BPS in MCI. METHOD: We studied premorbid personality traits as estimated 5 years back and their changes in 83 control subjects and 52 MCI patients using the revised NEO Personality Inventory for the Five-Factor Model completed by a proxy. Information on BPS was obtained using the Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI). Analyses were controlled for current depression and anxiety. RESULTS: Premorbid neuroticism and openness to experience were associated with the total NPI score. The changes in neuroticism, extraversion, openness to experiences, and conscientiousness were associated with apathy and affective symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Personality changes and BPS occur in MCI. The occurrence of affective BPS and apathy is associated with both premorbid personality traits and their changes.

A morphological, isoenzymatic and behavioural study of ten populations of Anopheles(Nyssorhynchus) albitarsis Lynch-Arribalzaga, 1878 (Diptera: culicidae) including from the type-locality - Baradero, Argentina

Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) albitarsis Lynch-Arribalzaga, 1878 shows morphological and behavioural variations which results in it being sometimes considered as a major malaria vector and at other times as playing no important role in epidemiology. With the aim of clarifying the taxonomy of the species, comparative morphological and isoenzymatic studies were made in populations from the type-locality, Baradero, Argentina and from 9 different localities inBrazil. Morphological studies consisted of the observation of eggs in scanning electron microscopy, of complete chaetotaxy of larvae and pupae and of the detailed drawing of male and female adults. Only Guajara-Mirim and Rio Branco populations, described previously as Anopheles deaneorum sp.n., showed morphological differences. Isoenzymes were studied using 4th instar larvae homogenate and agarosegel electrophoresis. Eleven enzymatic loci were analyzed. By calculation of Nei's Genetic Distance (D), the populations could be separated into 5 groups: i)Baradero, ii)Marajo, iii)Boa Vista, iv)Angra, Itaguai and Paraipaba and v)Guajara-Mirim and Rio Branco. These groups belong to 2 major clusters called I and II, separated by D = 0.345. In the I cluster are groups i, ii and iii and in II clusteriv and v. In I, D=0.246 separates i and ii from iii, while i is separated by D =0.181 from ii. In II, D = 0.223 between iv and v. Only the population of group vcould be distinguished morphologically from the others, leading to the description of an independent species An. deaneorum.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

99mTc-sestamibi imaging and bone marrow karyotyping in the assessment of multiple myeloma and MGUS

AIM: The first pathogenetic step in multiple myeloma is the emergence of a limited number of clonal plasma cells, clinically known as monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). Patients with MGUS do not have symptoms or end-organ damage but they do have a 1% annual risk of progression to multiple myeloma or related malignant disorders. With progression of MGUS to multiple myeloma, complex genetic events occur in the neoplastic plasma cell. Karyotyping and fluorescence in-situ hybridization (FISH) were shown to be of prognostic value in patients with multiple myeloma. Tc-sestamibi imaging reflects myeloma disease activity in bone marrow with very high sensitivity and specificity predicting disease evolution. This study was undertaken to evaluate the role of Tc-sestamibi imaging and cytogenetic analysis in prognosis prediction of MGUS and multiple myeloma. METHODS: We enrolled 30 consecutive patients with a confirmed diagnosis of multiple myeloma or MGUS. Bone marrow biopsy and biochemical staging according to the International Staging System (ISS) were performed in all cases. Karyotype analysis and FISH were performed in 11 of 12 patients with MGUS and in 17 of 18 patients with multiple myeloma having adequate metaphases. RESULTS: The karyotype was abnormal in four of 11 MGUS and in six of 17 multiple myeloma. Abnormalities of chromosome 13 were present in one case of MGUS and in six cases of multiple myeloma whereas the involvement of immunoglobulin was observed in one case of multiple myeloma. An abnormal FISH panel was found in four MGUS and nine multiple myeloma patients. All patients with MGUS showed a normal MIBI scan (score 0). Among patients with multiple myeloma only three, all with ISS stage I, showed a normal scan while a positive scan was obtained in others (score range, 1-7). The MIBI uptake was strongly related to the bone marrow plasma cell infiltration and to cytogenetic abnormalities. Particularly, a MIBI uptake score above 5 identified patients with poor prognosis encompassing all stage III multiple myeloma and three of seven stage II multiple myeloma. On the other hand all stage I and II patients having a MIBI score less than 5 showed a good prognosis. CONCLUSION: Both cytogenetic analysis and a MIBI scan add no relevant prognostic information to the ISS in patients with stage I and III multiple myeloma. The MIBI scan was of prognostic value in stage II multiple myeloma patients. Additionally, MIBI imaging may be useful to guide bone marrow biopsy in order to obtain adequate samples for cytogenetic analysis.

The value of ultrasonography in assessment of portal hypertension in hepatosplenic schistosomiasis

Ultrasonography can reveal most of the manifestations of portal hypertension complicating hepatosplenic, schistosomiasis. However, direct demonstration of gastroesophageal varices by ultrasonography is still very difficult. An attempt was done to correlate sonographic features of portal hypertension with the degree of fibrosis to screen patients having varices and predicting their chance of bleeding. The results obtained were found to be consistent with the esophagogastric endoscopy and with history of hematemesis. Four parameters were used, size of spleen, degree of periportal fibrosis, presence of collaterals and portal vein diameter. A pilot field survey was also done adopting the same principle.

Fear assessment in pigs exposed to a novel object test

The experiment aimed to study approach and locomotive behaviour as indicators of fear in a novel object test carried out in pigs. Thirty post-weaning (30 kg) and 30 finishing (90 kg) pigs were exposed to visual, auditory and olfactory novel stimuli during 2 different experiments. The facilities consisted of a test pen in which a trough was located. The trough contained chopped apples. Once the animals were trained to enter the test pen individually they were subjected to 3 different fear stimuli. These stimuli were applied in the test pen and next to the trough. The variables studied were feeding behaviour, approach behaviour (the distance and position of the animal with respect to the trough) and locomotive behaviour (general activity, reluctance to move, turning back and retreat attempts). Two groups were studied: saline and midazolam treated group. Twenty minutes before the start of the sessions, 15 post-weaning and finishing pigs received an intramuscular injection of 0.20 and 0.15 mg/kg, respectively, midazolam (Dormicum1). The saline pigs (15 animals per group) were injected with saline. The administration of midazolam increased the feeding behaviour and approaching behaviour, and reduced the locomotive behaviour. In front of the visual and olfactory stimuli post-weaning pigs showed a higher general activity than finishing pigs, but the contrary was found when the auditory stimulus was applied. The olfactory stimulus was more related to the turning back behaviour, whereas the visual stimulus was more related to retreat attempts. Although it could be concluded that reluctant to move was the most common response to the different fear stimuli applied in our study regardless of the age of animals, the combination of reluctant to move and turning back would be a good criterion to assess fear in domestic pigs. The use of midazolam as anxiolytic for studies of fear in commercial conditions in pigs is recommended.