940 resultados para Bayesian belief networks


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This article presents and evaluates a model to automatically derive word association networks from text corpora. Two aspects were evaluated: To what degree can corpus-based word association networks (CANs) approximate human word association networks with respect to (1) their ability to quantitatively predict word associations and (2) their structural network characteristics. Word association networks are the basis of the human mental lexicon. However, extracting such networks from human subjects is laborious, time consuming and thus necessarily limited in relation to the breadth of human vocabulary. Automatic derivation of word associations from text corpora would address these limitations. In both evaluations corpus-based processing provided vector representations for words. These representations were then employed to derive CANs using two measures: (1) the well known cosine metric, which is a symmetric measure, and (2) a new asymmetric measure computed from orthogonal vector projections. For both evaluations, the full set of 4068 free association networks (FANs) from the University of South Florida word association norms were used as baseline human data. Two corpus based models were benchmarked for comparison: a latent topic model and latent semantic analysis (LSA). We observed that CANs constructed using the asymmetric measure were slightly less effective than the topic model in quantitatively predicting free associates, and slightly better than LSA. The structural networks analysis revealed that CANs do approximate the FANs to an encouraging degree.

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Background The impact of socio-environmental factors on suicide has been examined in many studies. Few of them, however, have explored these associations from a spatial perspective, especially in assessing the association between meteorological factors and suicide. This study examined the association of meteorological and socio-demographic factors with suicide across small areas over different time periods. Methods Suicide, population and socio-demographic data (e.g., population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders (ATSI), and unemployment rate (UNE) at the Local Government Area (LGA) level were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the period of 1986 to 2005. Information on meteorological factors (rainfall, temperature and humidity) was supplied by Australian Bureau of Meteorology. A Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) Model was applied to explore the association of socio-demographic and meteorological factors with suicide across LGAs. Results In Model I (socio-demographic factors), proportion of ATSI and UNE were positively associated with suicide from 1996 to 2000 (Relative Risk (RR)ATSI = 1.0107, 95% Credible Interval (CI): 1.0062-1.0151; RRUNE = 1.0187, 95% CI: 1.0060-1.0315), and from 2001 to 2005 (RRATSI = 1.0126, 95% CI: 1.0076-1.0176; RRUNE = 1.0198, 95% CI: 1.0041-1.0354). Socio-Economic Index for Area (SEIFA) and IND, however, had negative associations with suicide between 1986 and 1990 (RRSEIFA = 0.9983, 95% CI: 0.9971-0.9995; RRATSI = 0.9914, 95% CI: 0.9848-0.9980). Model II (meteorological factors): a 1°C higher yearly mean temperature across LGAs increased the suicide rate by an average by 2.27% (95% CI: 0.73%, 3.82%) in 1996–2000, and 3.24% (95% CI: 1.26%, 5.21%) in 2001–2005. The associations between socio-demographic factors and suicide in Model III (socio-demographic and meteorological factors) were similar to those in Model I; but, there is no substantive association between climate and suicide in Model III. Conclusions Proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, unemployment and temperature appeared to be statistically associated with of suicide incidence across LGAs among all selected variables, especially in recent years. The results indicated that socio-demographic factors played more important roles than meteorological factors in the spatial pattern of suicide incidence.

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In this paper we present a new method for performing Bayesian parameter inference and model choice for low count time series models with intractable likelihoods. The method involves incorporating an alive particle filter within a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to create a novel pseudo-marginal algorithm, which we refer to as alive SMC^2. The advantages of this approach over competing approaches is that it is naturally adaptive, it does not involve between-model proposals required in reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo and does not rely on potentially rough approximations. The algorithm is demonstrated on Markov process and integer autoregressive moving average models applied to real biological datasets of hospital-acquired pathogen incidence, animal health time series and the cumulative number of poison disease cases in mule deer.

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In vitro studies and mathematical models are now being widely used to study the underlying mechanisms driving the expansion of cell colonies. This can improve our understanding of cancer formation and progression. Although much progress has been made in terms of developing and analysing mathematical models, far less progress has been made in terms of understanding how to estimate model parameters using experimental in vitro image-based data. To address this issue, a new approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm is proposed to estimate key parameters governing the expansion of melanoma cell (MM127) colonies, including cell diffusivity, D, cell proliferation rate, λ, and cell-to-cell adhesion, q, in two experimental scenarios, namely with and without a chemical treatment to suppress cell proliferation. Even when little prior biological knowledge about the parameters is assumed, all parameters are precisely inferred with a small posterior coefficient of variation, approximately 2–12%. The ABC analyses reveal that the posterior distributions of D and q depend on the experimental elapsed time, whereas the posterior distribution of λ does not. The posterior mean values of D and q are in the ranges 226–268 µm2h−1, 311–351 µm2h−1 and 0.23–0.39, 0.32–0.61 for the experimental periods of 0–24 h and 24–48 h, respectively. Furthermore, we found that the posterior distribution of q also depends on the initial cell density, whereas the posterior distributions of D and λ do not. The ABC approach also enables information from the two experiments to be combined, resulting in greater precision for all estimates of D and λ.

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Mismatches between services needing to interoperate have been addressed through the adaptation of structural and behavioural interfaces of services, which in practice incur long lead time through manual, coding effort. We propose a framework, complementary to con- ventional service adaptation, to synthesise service interfaces in the open setting of business networks, allowing consumers to introspect service interfaces and formulate service invocations. The framework also allows evolved service requests, as new features of service capabilities are discov- ered, through interactions with other, similar services. Finally the frame- work fosters reuse of adaptation efforts through normalisation of struc- tural and behavioural interfaces of similar services. This paper provides a first exposition of the service interface synthesis framework, describing patterns containing novel requirements for unilateral service adaptation and detailing the interface synthesis technique. Complex examples of ser- vices drawn from commercial logistic systems are then used to validate the synthesis technique and identify open challenges and future research directions.

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This project is a step forward in developing effective methods to mitigate voltage unbalance in urban residential networks. The method is proposed to reduce energy losses and improve quality of service in strongly unbalanced low-voltage networks. The method is based on phase swapping as well as optimal placement and sizing of Distribution Static Synchronous Compensator (D-STATCOM) using a Particle Swarm Optimisation method.

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This thesis introduces a new way of using prior information in a spatial model and develops scalable algorithms for fitting this model to large imaging datasets. These methods are employed for image-guided radiation therapy and satellite based classification of land use and water quality. This study has utilized a pre-computation step to achieve a hundredfold improvement in the elapsed runtime for model fitting. This makes it much more feasible to apply these models to real-world problems, and enables full Bayesian inference for images with a million or more pixels.

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This paper identifies critical beliefs underpinning intentions to commence and continue plasmapheresis donation. Whole blood (n = 624) and first-time plasmapheresis (n = 460) donors completed a cross-sectional survey assessing the belief-base of the theory of planned behaviour and rated their plasmapheresis donation intentions. While the idea of red blood cells being returned was a key deterrent for all donors, critical beliefs underlying commencement and continuation in the plasmapheresis donor panel differed and varied as a function of blood donation history. Findings will assist the development of targeted persuasion messages to optimise recruitment and retention of plasmapheresis donors in a non-remunerated context.

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Provides an accessible foundation to Bayesian analysis using real world models This book aims to present an introduction to Bayesian modelling and computation, by considering real case studies drawn from diverse fields spanning ecology, health, genetics and finance. Each chapter comprises a description of the problem, the corresponding model, the computational method, results and inferences as well as the issues that arise in the implementation of these approaches. Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling and Analysis: •Illustrates how to do Bayesian analysis in a clear and concise manner using real-world problems. •Each chapter focuses on a real-world problem and describes the way in which the problem may be analysed using Bayesian methods. •Features approaches that can be used in a wide area of application, such as, health, the environment, genetics, information science, medicine, biology, industry and remote sensing. Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling and Analysis is aimed at statisticians, researchers and practitioners who have some expertise in statistical modelling and analysis, and some understanding of the basics of Bayesian statistics, but little experience in its application. Graduate students of statistics and biostatistics will also find this book beneficial.

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Calleija, a small to medium sized (SME) Australian and internationally recognised fine jeweller has secured a significant strategic global partnership with one of the world’s best-known luxury automobile brands, Aston Martin. Forging this international relationship to produce an elegant fine jewellery collection has given rise to a new network between the Australian jewellery industry and the European automobile industry. Calleija’s exclusive association with Aston Martin consolidates a shared passion for the finest quality and craftsmanship which was inspired by Aston Martin’s Supercar, the One-77. This inspiration lead to John Calleija being chosen by Aston Martin to design this latest high-luxury offering in which each design is limited to only 77 pieces utilising 30 unique designs (Calleija, 2012). The story behind Calleija’s internationalisation to the United Kingdom (UK) and their subsequent business-to-business strategic partnership with Aston Martin is no doubt a good sign for the Australian jewellery industry.

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The major challenge of European Union’s agricultural industry is to ensure sustainable supply of quality food that meets the demands of a rapidly growing population, changing dietary patterns, increased competition for land use, and environmental concerns. Investments in research and innovation, which facilitate integration of external knowledge in food chain operations, are crucial to undertaking such challenges. This paper addresses how SMEs successfully innovate within collaborative networks with the assistance of innovation intermediaries. In particular, we explore the roles of innovation intermediaries in knowledge acquisition, knowledge assimilation, knowledge, transformation, and knowledge exploitation in open innovation initiatives from the wine industry through the theoretical lens of absorptive capacity. Based on two case studies from the wine industry, we identified seven key activities performed by innovation intermediaries that complement SMEs’ ability to successfully leverage external sources of knowledge for innovation purposes. These activities are articulation of knowledge needs and innovation capabilities, facilitation of social interactions, establishment of complementary links, implementation of governance structures, conflict management, enhancement of transparency, and mediation of communication. Our in-depth qualitative study of two innovation intermediaries in the wine industry has several important implications that contribute to research and practice.

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The 'rich club' coefficient describes a phenomenon where a network's hubs (high-degree nodes) are on average more intensely interconnected than lower-degree nodes. Networks with rich clubs often have an efficient, higher-order organization, but we do not yet know how the rich club emerges in the living brain, or how it changes as our brain networks develop. Here we chart the developmental trajectory of the rich club in anatomical brain networks from 438 subjects aged 12-30. Cortical networks were constructed from 68×68 connectivity matrices of fiber density, using whole-brain tractography in 4-Tesla 105-gradient high angular resolution diffusion images (HARDI). The adult and younger cohorts had rich clubs that included different nodes; the rich club effect intensified with age. Rich-club organization is a sign of a network's efficiency and robustness. These concepts and findings may be advantageous for studying brain maturation and abnormal brain development.

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Brain connectivity analyses are increasingly popular for investigating organization. Many connectivity measures including path lengths are generally defined as the number of nodes traversed to connect a node in a graph to the others. Despite its name, path length is purely topological, and does not take into account the physical length of the connections. The distance of the trajectory may also be highly relevant, but is typically overlooked in connectivity analyses. Here we combined genotyping, anatomical MRI and HARDI to understand how our genes influence the cortical connections, using whole-brain tractography. We defined a new measure, based on Dijkstra's algorithm, to compute path lengths for tracts connecting pairs of cortical regions. We compiled these measures into matrices where elements represent the physical distance traveled along tracts. We then analyzed a large cohort of healthy twins and show that our path length measure is reliable, heritable, and influenced even in young adults by the Alzheimer's risk gene, CLU.

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Functional connectivity (FC) analyses of resting-state fMRI data allow for the mapping of large-scale functional networks, and provide a novel means of examining the impact of dopaminergic challenge. Here, using a double-blind, placebo-controlled design, we examined the effect of L-dopa, a dopamine precursor, on striatal resting-state FC in 19 healthy young adults.Weexamined the FC of 6 striatal regions of interest (ROIs) previously shown to elicit networks known to be associated with motivational, cognitive and motor subdivisions of the caudate and putamen (Di Martino et al., 2008). In addition to replicating the previously demonstrated patterns of striatal FC, we observed robust effects of L-dopa. Specifically, L-dopa increased FC in motor pathways connecting the putamen ROIs with the cerebellum and brainstem. Although L-dopa also increased FC between the inferior ventral striatum and ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, it disrupted ventral striatal and dorsal caudate FC with the default mode network. These alterations in FC are consistent with studies that have demonstrated dopaminergic modulation of cognitive and motor striatal networks in healthy participants. Recent studies have demonstrated altered resting state FC in several conditions believed to be characterized by abnormal dopaminergic neurotransmission. Our findings suggest that the application of similar experimental pharmacological manipulations in such populations may further our understanding of the role of dopaminergic neurotransmission in those conditions.

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With the advent of functional neuroimaging techniques, in particular functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we have gained greater insight into the neural correlates of visuospatial function. However, it may not always be easy to identify the cerebral regions most specifically associated with performance on a given task. One approach is to examine the quantitative relationships between regional activation and behavioral performance measures. In the present study, we investigated the functional neuroanatomy of two different visuospatial processing tasks, judgement of line orientation and mental rotation. Twenty-four normal participants were scanned with fMRI using blocked periodic designs for experimental task presentation. Accuracy and reaction time (RT) to each trial of both activation and baseline conditions in each experiment was recorded. Both experiments activated dorsal and ventral visual cortical areas as well as dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. More regionally specific associations with task performance were identified by estimating the association between (sinusoidal) power of functional response and mean RT to the activation condition; a permutation test based on spatial statistics was used for inference. There was significant behavioral-physiological association in right ventral extrastriate cortex for the line orientation task and in bilateral (predominantly right) superior parietal lobule for the mental rotation task. Comparable associations were not found between power of response and RT to the baseline conditions of the tasks. These data suggest that one region in a neurocognitive network may be most strongly associated with behavioral performance and this may be regarded as the computationally least efficient or rate-limiting node of the network.