Physical activity in mid-age and older women: Lessons from the Australian longitudinal study on women’s health

The Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health (ALSWH) commenced in Australia in 1996 when researchers recruited approximately 40,000 women in three birth cohorts: 1973–1978, 1946–1951, and 1921–1926. Since then participants have completed surveys on a wide range of health issues, at approximately three-year intervals. This overview describes changes in physical activity (PA) over time in the mid-age and older ALSWH cohorts, and summarizes the findings of studies published to date on the determinants of PA, and its associated health outcomes in Australian women. The ALSWH data show a significant increase in PA during mid-age, and a rapid decline in activity levels when women are in their 80s. The study has demonstrated the importance of life stages and key life events as determinants of activity, the additional benefits of vigorous activity for mid-age women, and the health benefits of ‘only walking’ for older women. ALSWH researchers have also drawn attention to the benefits of activity in terms of a wide range of physical and mental health outcomes, as well as overall vitality and well-being. The data indicate that maintaining a high level of PA throughout mid and older age will not only reduce the risk of premature death, but also significantly extend the number of years of healthy life.

Methods to determine resistance to anthelmintics when continuing larval development occurs

The in vivo faecal egg count reduction test (FECRT) is the most commonly used test to detect anthelmintic resistance (AR) in gastrointestinal nematodes (GIN) of ruminants in pasture based systems. However, there are several variations on the method, some more appropriate than others in specific circumstances. While in some cases labour and time can be saved by just collecting post-drench faecal worm egg counts (FEC) of treatment groups with controls, or pre- and post-drench FEC of a treatment group with no controls, there are circumstances when pre- and post-drench FEC of an untreated control group as well as from the treatment groups are necessary. Computer simulation techniques were used to determine the most appropriate of several methods for calculating AR when there is continuing larval development during the testing period, as often occurs when anthelmintic treatments against genera of GIN with high biotic potential or high re-infection rates, such as Haemonchus contortus of sheep and Cooperia punctata of cattle, are less than 100% efficacious. Three field FECRT experimental designs were investigated: (I) post-drench FEC of treatment and controls groups, (II) pre- and post-drench FEC of a treatment group only and (III) pre- and post-drench FEC of treatment and control groups. To investigate the performance of methods of indicating AR for each of these designs, simulated animal FEC were generated from negative binominal distributions with subsequent sampling from the binomial distributions to account for drench effect, with varying parameters for worm burden, larval development and drench resistance. Calculations of percent reductions and confidence limits were based on those of the Standing Committee for Agriculture (SCA) guidelines. For the two field methods with pre-drench FEC, confidence limits were also determined from cumulative inverse Beta distributions of FEC, for eggs per gram (epg) and the number of eggs counted at detection levels of 50 and 25. Two rules for determining AR: (1) %reduction (%R) < 95% and lower confidence limit <90%; and (2) upper confidence limit <95%, were also assessed. For each combination of worm burden, larval development and drench resistance parameters, 1000 simulations were run to determine the number of times the theoretical percent reduction fell within the estimated confidence limits and the number of times resistance would have been declared. When continuing larval development occurs during the testing period of the FECRT, the simulations showed AR should be calculated from pre- and post-drench worm egg counts of an untreated control group as well as from the treatment group. If the widely used resistance rule 1 is used to assess resistance, rule 2 should also be applied, especially when %R is in the range 90 to 95% and resistance is suspected.

Emotional climate of a pre-service science teacher education class in Bhutan

This study explored pre-service secondary science teachers’ perceptions of classroom emotional climate in the context of the Bhutanese macro-social policy of Gross National Happiness. Drawing upon sociological perspectives of human emotions and using Interaction Ritual Theory this study investigated how pre-service science teachers may be supported in their professional development. It was a multi-method study involving video and audio recordings of teaching episodes supported by interviews and the researcher’s diary. Students also registered their perceptions of the emotional climate of their classroom at 3-minute intervals using audience response technology. In this way, emotional events were identified for video analysis. The findings of this study highlighted that the activities pre-service teachers engaged in matter to them. Positive emotional climate was identified in activities involving students’ presentations using video clips and models, coteaching, and interactive whole class discussions. Decreases in emotional climate were identified during formal lectures and when unprepared presenters led presentations. Emotions such as frustration and disappointment characterized classes with negative emotional climate. The enabling conditions to sustain a positive emotional climate are identified. Implications for sustaining macro-social policy about Gross National Happiness are considered in light of the climate that develops in science teacher education classes.

Bayesian mixture model estimation of aerosol particle size distributions

In this paper, we examine approaches to estimate a Bayesian mixture model at both single and multiple time points for a sample of actual and simulated aerosol particle size distribution (PSD) data. For estimation of a mixture model at a single time point, we use Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) to estimate mixture model parameters including the number of components which is assumed to be unknown. We compare the results of this approach to a commonly used estimation method in the aerosol physics literature. As PSD data is often measured over time, often at small time intervals, we also examine the use of an informative prior for estimation of the mixture parameters which takes into account the correlated nature of the parameters. The Bayesian mixture model offers a promising approach, providing advantages both in estimation and inference.

Computational methods for Bayesian model choice

In this note, we shortly survey some recent approaches on the approximation of the Bayes factor used in Bayesian hypothesis testing and in Bayesian model choice. In particular, we reassess importance sampling, harmonic mean sampling, and nested sampling from a unified perspective.

Frequency of dressing changes for central venous access devices on catheter-related infections

Background People admitted to intensive care units and those with chronic health care problems often require long-term vascular access. Central venous access devices (CVADs) are used for administering intravenous medications and blood sampling. CVADs are covered with a dressing and secured with an adhesive or adhesive tape to protect them from infection and reduce movement. Dressings are changed when they become soiled with blood or start to come away from the skin. Repeated removal and application of dressings can cause damage to the skin. The skin is an important barrier that protects the body against infection. Less frequent dressing changes may reduce skin damage, but it is unclear whether this practice affects the frequency of catheter-related infections. Objectives To assess the effect of the frequency of CVAD dressing changes on the incidence of catheter-related infections and other outcomes including pain and skin damage. Search methods In June 2015 we searched: The Cochrane Wounds Specialised Register; The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library); Ovid MEDLINE; Ovid MEDLINE (In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations); Ovid EMBASE and EBSCO CINAHL. We also searched clinical trials registries for registered trials. There were no restrictions with respect to language, date of publication or study setting. Selection criteria All randomised controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating the effect of the frequency of CVAD dressing changes on the incidence of catheter-related infections on all patients in any healthcare setting. Data collection and analysis We used standard Cochrane review methodology. Two review authors independently assessed studies for inclusion, performed risk of bias assessment and data extraction. We undertook meta-analysis where appropriate or otherwise synthesised data descriptively when heterogeneous. Main results We included five RCTs (2277 participants) that compared different frequencies of CVAD dressing changes. The studies were all conducted in Europe and published between 1995 and 2009. Participants were recruited from the intensive care and cancer care departments of one children's and four adult hospitals. The studies used a variety of transparent dressings and compared a longer interval between dressing changes (5 to15 days; intervention) with a shorter interval between changes (2 to 5 days; control). In each study participants were followed up until the CVAD was removed or until discharge from ICU or hospital. - Confirmed catheter-related bloodstream infection (CRBSI) One trial randomised 995 people receiving central venous catheters to a longer or shorter interval between dressing changes and measured CRBSI. It is unclear whether there is a difference in the risk of CRBSI between people having long or short intervals between dressing changes (RR 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.40 to 4.98) (low quality evidence). - Suspected catheter-related bloodstream infection Two trials randomised a total of 151 participants to longer or shorter dressing intervals and measured suspected CRBSI. It is unclear whether there is a difference in the risk of suspected CRBSI between people having long or short intervals between dressing changes (RR 0.70, 95% CI 0.23 to 2.10) (low quality evidence). - All cause mortality Three trials randomised a total of 896 participants to longer or shorter dressing intervals and measured all cause mortality. It is unclear whether there is a difference in the risk of death from any cause between people having long or short intervals between dressing changes (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.25) (low quality evidence). - Catheter-site infection Two trials randomised a total of 371 participants to longer or shorter dressing intervals and measured catheter-site infection. It is unclear whether there is a difference in risk of catheter-site infection between people having long or short intervals between dressing changes (RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.63) (low quality evidence). - Skin damage One small trial (112 children) and three trials (1475 adults) measured skin damage. There was very low quality evidence for the effect of long intervals between dressing changes on skin damage compared with short intervals (children: RR of scoring ≥ 2 on the skin damage scale 0.33, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.68; data for adults not pooled). - Pain Two studies involving 193 participants measured pain. It is unclear if there is a difference between long and short interval dressing changes on pain during dressing removal (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.46 to 1.38) (low quality evidence). Authors' conclusions The best available evidence is currently inconclusive regarding whether longer intervals between CVAD dressing changes are associated with more or less catheter-related infection, mortality or pain than shorter intervals.

A Need for FSH in Maintaining Fertility of Adult Male Subhuman Primates

Adult fertile male bonnet monkeys (Macaca radiata) were continuously deprived of endogenous follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) support for 240 days by injecting them with 1 ml of characterized monkey antiserum to oFSH every 48 hr; control monkeys received during the same period normal monkey serum instead. Testicular function was assessed at periodic intervals by (a) carrying out differential counting of sperm in the ejaculate obtained and (b) determining the hyaluronidase activity as well as in vitro 3H thymidine incorporation into DNA of testicular tissue removed at biopsy. Both the quality (viability and motility) of the sperms voided and the total sperm counts showed marked decreases as a function of time of immunization, the first significant reduction being noted by 100 days. FSH deprivation affected both the biochemical parameters used to test testicular functionality they being reduced at ∼200 days by 50%-60%. The fertility of these monkeys was evaluated at periodic times after 90 days of treatment by means of mating studies. FSH deprivation had rendered the monkeys incapable of impregnating any of the females used. Testosterone and luteinizing hormone (LH) levels remained unchanged following FSH antiserum injection. With cessation of antiserum treatment testicular function and fertility were completely restored to normalcy, indicating that the observed effect was specifically due to FSH deprivation. This study thus provides conclusive evidence for the involvement of FSH in maintenance of testicular function and fertility in the adult male primate.

A comparison of welfare outcomes for weaner and mature Bos indicus bulls surgically or tension band castrated with or without analgesia: 1. Behavioural responses

Tension-band castration of cattle is gaining favour because it is relatively simple to perform and is promoted by retailers of the devices as a humane castration method. Furthermore, retailers encourage delaying castration to exploit the superior growth rates of bulls compared with steers. Two experiments were conducted, under tropical conditions, comparing tension banding and surgical castration of weaner (7–10 months old) and mature (22–25 months old) Bos indicus bulls with and without pain management (ketoprofen or saline injected intramuscularly immediately prior to castration). Welfare outcomes were assessed using a wide range of measures; this paper reports on the behavioural responses of the bulls and an accompanying paper reports on other measures. Behavioural data were collected at intervals by direct observation and continuously via data loggers on the hind leg of the bulls to 4 weeks post-castration. Tension-banded bulls performed less movement in the crush/chute than the surgically castrated bulls during the procedures (weaner: 2.63 vs. 5.69, P < 0.001; mature: 1.00 vs. 5.94; P < 0.001 for tension-band and surgical castration, respectively), indicating that tension banding was less painful then surgical castration during conduct. To 1.5 h post-castration, tension-banded bulls performed significantly (all P < 0.05) more active behavioural responses indicative of pain compared with surgical castrates, e.g., percentage time walking forwards (weaner: 15.0% vs. 8.1%; mature: 22.3% vs. 15.1%), walking backwards (weaner: 4.3% vs. 1.4%; mature: 2.4% vs. 0.5%), numbers of tail movements (weaner: 21.9 vs. 1.4; mature: 51.5 vs. 39.4) and leg movements (weaner: 12.9 vs. 0.9; mature: 8.5 vs. 1.5), respectively. In contrast, surgically castrated bulls performed more immobile behaviours compared with tension-banded bulls (e.g., standing in mature bulls was 56.6% vs. 34.4%, respectively, P = 0.002). Ketoprofen administration appeared effective in moderating pain-related behaviours in the mature bulls from 1.5 to 3 h, e.g., reducing abnormal standing (0.0% vs. 7.7%, P = 0.009) and increasing feeding (12.7% vs. 0.0%, P = 0.048) in NSAID- and saline-treated bulls, respectively. There were few behavioural differences subsequent to 24 h post-castration, but some limited evidence of chronic pain (3–4 weeks post-castration) with both methods. Interpretation, however, was difficult from behaviours alone. Thus, tension banding is less painful than surgical castration during conduct of the procedures and pain-related behavioural responses differ with castration method (active restlessness in response to tension banding and minimisation of movement in response to surgical castration). Ketoprofen administered immediately prior to castration was somewhat effective in reducing pain, particularly in the mature bulls.

A Bayesian latent class safety performance function for identifying motor vehicle crash blackspots

The current state of the practice in Blackspot Identification (BSI) utilizes safety performance functions based on total crash counts to identify transport system sites with potentially high crash risk. This paper postulates that total crash count variation over a transport network is a result of multiple distinct crash generating processes including geometric characteristics of the road, spatial features of the surrounding environment, and driver behaviour factors. However, these multiple sources are ignored in current modelling methodologies in both trying to explain or predict crash frequencies across sites. Instead, current practice employs models that imply that a single underlying crash generating process exists. The model mis-specification may lead to correlating crashes with the incorrect sources of contributing factors (e.g. concluding a crash is predominately caused by a geometric feature when it is a behavioural issue), which may ultimately lead to inefficient use of public funds and misidentification of true blackspots. This study aims to propose a latent class model consistent with a multiple crash process theory, and to investigate the influence this model has on correctly identifying crash blackspots. We first present the theoretical and corresponding methodological approach in which a Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) model is estimated assuming that crashes arise from two distinct risk generating processes including engineering and unobserved spatial factors. The Bayesian model is used to incorporate prior information about the contribution of each underlying process to the total crash count. The methodology is applied to the state-controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared to an Empirical Bayesian Negative Binomial (EB-NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures illustrates significantly improved performance of the proposed model compared to the NB model. The detection of blackspots was also improved when compared to the EB-NB model. In addition, modelling crashes as the result of two fundamentally separate underlying processes reveals more detailed information about unobserved crash causes.

ScreeningCorymbiapopulations for resistance toPuccinia psidii

Disease screening to determine the threat Puccinia psidii poses to plantation and native eucalypts in Australia was undertaken in half-sib families of two contrasting eucalypt species, Eucalyptus cloeziana and E. argophloia. Artificial inoculation with a single-lesion isolate of P. psidii was used to screen these species for resistance to the biotype of P. psidii established in Australia. The objective was to characterize resistance to P. psidii within these two distinct species: E. argophloia, a vulnerable species with a narrow distribution, and E. cloeziana, a species with a broad and extensive distribution in Queensland. Results for E. cloeziana indicate that inland provenances are more resistant to P. psidii infection than provenances from coastal regions. Heritability estimates for the two assessment systems used (resistance on a 1-to-5 ordinal scale verses resistance on a 0-to-1 binomial scale) were low to high (0.24 to 0.63) for E. argophloia and moderate to high (0.4 to 0.91) for E. cloeziana, indicating a significant level of additive genetic variance for rust resistance within the populations. This study demonstrates the potential to select resistant families within the tested populations and indicates that P. psidii could detrimentally affect these species in native forests, nurseries, and plantations.

Screening Eucalyptus cloeziana and E. argophloia populations for resistance to Puccinia psidii

Disease screening to determine the threat Puccinia psidii poses to plantation and native eucalypts in Australia was undertaken in half-sib families of two contrasting eucalypt species, Eucalyptus cloeziana and E. argophloia. Artificial inoculation with a single-lesion isolate of P. psidii was used to screen these species for resistance to the biotype of P. psidii established in Australia. The objective was to characterize resistance to P. psidii within these two distinct species: E. argophloia, a vulnerable species with a narrow distribution, and E. cloeziana, a species with a broad and extensive distribution in Queensland. Results for E. cloeziana indicate that inland provenances are more resistant to P. psidii infection than provenances from coastal regions. Heritability estimates for the two assessment systems used (resistance on a 1-to-5 ordinal scale verses resistance on a 0-to-1 binomial scale) were low to high (0.24 to 0.63) for E. argophloia and moderate to high (0.4 to 0.91) for E. cloeziana, indicating a significant level of additive genetic variance for rust resistance within the populations. This study demonstrates the potential to select resistant families within the tested populations and indicates that P. psidii could detrimentally affect these species in native forests, nurseries, and plantations. Disease screening to determine the threat Puccinia psidii poses to plantation and native eucalypts in Australia was undertaken in half-sib families of two contrasting eucalypt species, Eucalyptus cloeziana and E. argophloia. Artificial inoculation with a single-lesion isolate of P. psidii was used to screen these species for resistance to the biotype of P. psidii established in Australia. The objective was to characterize resistance to P. psidii within these two distinct species: E. argophloia, a vulnerable species with a narrow distribution, and E. cloeziana, a species with a broad and extensive distribution in Queensland. Results for E. cloeziana indicate that inland provenances are more resistant to P. psidii infection than provenances from coastal regions. Heritability estimates for the two assessment systems used (resistance on a 1-to-5 ordinal scale verses resistance on a 0-to-1 binomial scale) were low to high (0.24 to 0.63) for E. argophloia and moderate to high (0.4 to 0.91) for E. cloeziana, indicating a significant level of additive genetic variance for rust resistance within the populations. This study demonstrates the potential to select resistant families within the tested populations and indicates that P. psidii could detrimentally affect these species in native forests, nurseries, and plantations.

On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

Bayesian fisheries stock assessment: integrating and updating knowledge

In this thesis the use of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference in fisheries stock assessment is studied. The work was conducted in collaboration of the Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute by using the problem of monitoring and prediction of the juvenile salmon population in the River Tornionjoki as an example application. The River Tornionjoki is the largest salmon river flowing into the Baltic Sea. This thesis tackles the issues of model formulation and model checking as well as computational problems related to Bayesian modelling in the context of fisheries stock assessment. Each article of the thesis provides a novel method either for extracting information from data obtained via a particular type of sampling system or for integrating the information about the fish stock from multiple sources in terms of a population dynamics model. Mark-recapture and removal sampling schemes and a random catch sampling method are covered for the estimation of the population size. In addition, a method for estimating the stock composition of a salmon catch based on DNA samples is also presented. For most of the articles, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been used as a tool to approximate the posterior distribution. Problems arising from the sampling method are also briefly discussed and potential solutions for these problems are proposed. Special emphasis in the discussion is given to the philosophical foundation of the Bayesian approach in the context of fisheries stock assessment. It is argued that the role of subjective prior knowledge needed in practically all parts of a Bayesian model should be recognized and consequently fully utilised in the process of model formulation.

In response: UV–vis light transmittance through tinted contact lenses and the effect of color on values

In the study, we used the Agilent 8453 spectrophotometer (which is equipped with a limiting aperture that restricts the light beam to the central 5 mm of the contact lens), to measure the transmittance of various coloured contact lenses including the one Day Acuvue define manufactured by Johnson and Johnson which the authors represent. We measured the instrument baseline before the transmittance spectra of lenses were tested. The values of lens transmittances were thus the difference between baseline and lens measurement at each time. The transmittance measurements were obtained at 0.5 nm intervals, from 200 to 700 nm after a soak in saline to remove the influence of any surface active agents within the packaging products. The technique used in our study was not very different from how other research studies [2], [3], [4], [5] and [6] have measured the spectra transmittances of contact lenses...

Regulation of Testosterone Rhythmicity by Gonadotropins in Bonnet Monkeys (Macaca radiata)

In an attempt to study the factor(s) that regulates production of nychthemeral testosterone surges in adult male bonnet monkeys (Macaca radiata), serum levels of testosterone, LH, FSH, and prolactin were monitored during a 24 h period. Only prolactin showed a significant increment in its levels coincident with that of the testosterone surge. The relationship between LH and testosterone production was studied by 1) observing the responsiveness of testes, in terms of testosterone production, to one or two injections of oLH (1 mg/injection) given 12 h apart at 0900 and 2100 h; and 2) monitoring the effect on testicular testosterone production of LH antiserum injection given at 1000, 1700, and 2100 h. That each LH injection brought about an increment in testosterone level of equal magnitude suggests that the difference in responsiveness of the testes to unchanging levels of LH at morning and night hours is not due to any alteration in substrate availability at the two time intervals. The LH antiserum experiments indicate that irrespective of the time of its administration the nocturnal surge of testosterone, which normally occurs at 2200 h, is blocked. While the antiserum prevents a rise in testosterone level, it appears not to influence basal testosterone production. The results further show that even at 2100 h, when surge testosterone production is already initiated, the testis is still highly sensitive to lack of LH, antiserum injection bringing about within 2 h a significant reduction in testosterone levels (by 69% in experimentals vs 11% in controls).