Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time Varying Parameters (TVP) estimated by Bayesian methods. In core out-of-sample results, we improve upon a random walk benchmark for at least half, and for as many as eight out of ten, of the currencies considered. This contrasts with a constant parameter Taylor rule model that yields a more limited improvement upon the benchmark. In further results, Purchasing Power Parity and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity TVP models beat a random walk benchmark, implying our methods have some generality in exchange rate prediction.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Validity of impedance-based equations for the prediction of total body water as measured by deuterium dilution in African women.

BACKGROUND: Little information is available on the validity of simple and indirect body-composition methods in non-Western populations. Equations for predicting body composition are population-specific, and body composition differs between blacks and whites. OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that the validity of equations for predicting total body water (TBW) from bioelectrical impedance analysis measurements is likely to depend on the racial background of the group from which the equations were derived. DESIGN: The hypothesis was tested by comparing, in 36 African women, TBW values measured by deuterium dilution with those predicted by 23 equations developed in white, African American, or African subjects. These cross-validations in our African sample were also compared, whenever possible, with results from other studies in black subjects. RESULTS: Errors in predicting TBW showed acceptable values (1.3-1.9 kg) in all cases, whereas a large range of bias (0.2-6.1 kg) was observed independently of the ethnic origin of the sample from which the equations were derived. Three equations (2 from whites and 1 from blacks) showed nonsignificant bias and could be used in Africans. In all other cases, we observed either an overestimation or underestimation of TBW with variable bias values, regardless of racial background, yielding no clear trend for validity as a function of ethnic origin. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this cross-validation study emphasize the need for further fundamental research to explore the causes of the poor validity of TBW prediction equations across populations rather than the need to develop new prediction equations for use in Africa.

Multilayer perceptron with local constraint as an emerging method in spatial data analysis

The use of Geographic Information Systems has revolutionalized the handling and the visualization of geo-referenced data and has underlined the critic role of spatial analysis. The usual tools for such a purpose are geostatistics which are widely used in Earth science. Geostatistics are based upon several hypothesis which are not always verified in practice. On the other hand, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) a priori can be used without special assumptions and are known to be flexible. This paper proposes to discuss the application of ANN in the case of the interpolation of a geo-referenced variable.

The reasons for discrepancies in target volume delineation : a SASRO study on head-and-neck and prostate cancers.

PURPOSE: To understand the reasons for differences in the delineation of target volumes between physicians. MATERIAL AND METHODS: 18 Swiss radiooncology centers were invited to delineate volumes for one prostate and one head-and-neck case. In addition, a questionnaire was sent to evaluate the differences in the volume definition (GTV [gross tumor volume], CTV [clinical target volume], PTV [planning target volume]), the various estimated margins, and the nodes at risk. Coherence between drawn and stated margins by centers was calculated. The questionnaire also included a nonspecific series of questions regarding planning methods in each institution. RESULTS: Fairly large differences in the drawn volumes were seen between the centers in both cases and also in the definition of volumes. Correlation between drawn and stated margins was fair in the prostate case and poor in the head-and-neck case. The questionnaire revealed important differences in the planning methods between centers. CONCLUSION: These large differences could be explained by (1) a variable knowledge/interpretation of ICRU definitions, (2) variable interpretations of the potential microscopic extent, (3) difficulties in GTV identification, (4) differences in the concept, and (5) incoherence between theory (i.e., stated margins) and practice (i.e., drawn margins).

Measurement of parent satisfaction in french-speaking PICUs: a need for translation and cultural adaptation of the empathic questionnaire

Background and aims: Family-centred care is an expected standard in PICU and parent reported outcomes are rarely measured. The Dutch validated EMPATHIC questionnaire provides accurate measures of parental perceptions of family-centred care in PICU. A French version would provide an important resource for quality control and benchmarking with other PICUs. The study aimed to translate and to assess the French cultural adaptation of the EMPATHIC questionnaire. Methods: In September 2012, following approval from the developer, translation and cultural adaptation were performed using a structured method (Wild et al. 2005). This included forward-backward translation and reconciliation by an official translator, harmonization assessed by the research team, and cognitive debriefing with the target users' population. In this last step, a convenience sample of parents with PICU experience assessed the comprehensibility and cultural relevance of the 65-item French EMPATHIC questionnaire. The PICUs in Lausanne, Switzerland and Lille, France participated. Results: Seventeen parents, including 13 French native and 4 French as second language speakers, tested the cognitive equivalence and cultural relevance of the French EMPATHIC questionnaire. The mean agreement for comprehensibility of all 65 items reached 90.2%. Three items fell below the cut-off 80% agreement and were revised for inclusion in the final French version. Conclusions: The translation and the cultural adaptation permitted to highlight a few cultural differences that did not interfere with the main construct of the EMPATHIC questionnaire. Reliability and validity testing with a new sample of parents is needed to strengthen the psychometric properties of the French EMPATHIC questionnaire.

Generating controlled image sets in cognitive neuroscience research.

The investigation of perceptual and cognitive functions with non-invasive brain imaging methods critically depends on the careful selection of stimuli for use in experiments. For example, it must be verified that any observed effects follow from the parameter of interest (e.g. semantic category) rather than other low-level physical features (e.g. luminance, or spectral properties). Otherwise, interpretation of results is confounded. Often, researchers circumvent this issue by including additional control conditions or tasks, both of which are flawed and also prolong experiments. Here, we present some new approaches for controlling classes of stimuli intended for use in cognitive neuroscience, however these methods can be readily extrapolated to other applications and stimulus modalities. Our approach is comprised of two levels. The first level aims at equalizing individual stimuli in terms of their mean luminance. Each data point in the stimulus is adjusted to a standardized value based on a standard value across the stimulus battery. The second level analyzes two populations of stimuli along their spectral properties (i.e. spatial frequency) using a dissimilarity metric that equals the root mean square of the distance between two populations of objects as a function of spatial frequency along x- and y-dimensions of the image. Randomized permutations are used to obtain a minimal value between the populations to minimize, in a completely data-driven manner, the spectral differences between image sets. While another paper in this issue applies these methods in the case of acoustic stimuli (Aeschlimann et al., Brain Topogr 2008), we illustrate this approach here in detail for complex visual stimuli.

Prevalence and control of Babesiosis in the Americas

This review presents up-to-date information on the distribution and control measures of babesiosis in Latin America. Bovine babesiosis caused by Babesia bovis and B. bigemia will be emphasized. The disease is endemic is most countries and poses a serious economic burdenon livestock production in the region (U.S.$1365 million/year, FAO, 1989). Of the estimated 250 million cattle in Central and South America, approximately 175 million (70%) are in tick-infested regions. Humid, tropical and subtropical areas favor development of the main vector, the one-host tick Boophilus microplus. In many regions bovine babesiosis is enzootically stable as consequence of a balanced host-parasite relationship. However, Latin America offers a wide range of epidemiologica conditions that are influenced by variations from tropical to cool climates and by susceptible purebred cattle that are regularly imported to upgrade local stocks. The control measures employed in most countries for babesiosis esentially rely on chemotherapy, use of acaricides for B. microplus, and to a lesser degree, on immunization methods. In general, these measures are expensive, time consuming, and in many cases, provide limited success. Finally, the zoonotic potential ob babesiosis will be addressd, with special emphasis on the situation in the United States. Even though bovine babesiosis has long been eradicated from the U.S.A., human babesiosis in endemic in the northeastern region of the country.

Decreasing population selection rates of resistance mutation K65R over time in HIV-1 patients receiving combination therapy including tenofovir.

OBJECTIVES: The use of tenofovir is highly associated with the emergence of mutation K65R, which confers broad resistance to nucleoside/nucleotide analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), especially when tenofovir is combined with other NRTIs also selecting for K65R. Although recent HIV-1 treatment guidelines discouraging these combinations resulted in reduced K65R selection with tenofovir, updated information on the impact of currently recommended regimens on the population selection rate of K65R is presently lacking. METHODS: In this study, we evaluated changes over time in the selection rate of resistance mutation K65R in a large population of 2736 HIV-1-infected patients failing combination antiretroviral treatment between 2002 and 2010. RESULTS: The K65R resistance mutation was detected in 144 patients, a prevalence of 5.3%. A large majority of observed K65R cases were explained by the use of tenofovir, reflecting its wide use in clinical practice. However, changing patterns over time in NRTIs accompanying tenofovir resulted in a persistent decreasing probability of K65R selection by tenofovir-based therapy. The currently recommended NRTI combination tenofovir/emtricitabine was associated with a low probability of K65R emergence. For any given dual NRTI combination including tenofovir, higher selection rates of K65R were consistently observed with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor than with a protease inhibitor as the third agent. DISCUSSION: Our finding of a stable time trend of K65R despite elevated use of tenofovir illustrates increased potency of current HIV-1 therapy including tenofovir.

Discontinuous Galerkin methods for the one-dimensional Vlasov-Poisson system

We construct a new family of semi-discrete numerical schemes for the approximation of the one-dimensional periodic Vlasov-Poisson system. The methods are based on the coupling of discontinuous Galerkin approximation to the Vlasov equation and several finite element (conforming, non-conforming and mixed) approximations for the Poisson problem. We show optimal error estimates for the all proposed methods in the case of smooth compactly supported initial data. The issue of energy conservation is also analyzed for some of the methods.

Overuse and underuse of colonoscopy in a European primary care setting.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to decrease overuse of health care may result in underuse. Overuse and underuse of colonoscopy have never been simultaneously evaluated in the same patient population. METHODS: In this prospective observational study, the appropriateness and necessity of referral for colonoscopy were evaluated by using explicit criteria developed by a standardized expert panel method. Inappropriate referrals constituted overuse. Patients with necessary colonoscopy indications who were not referred constituted underuse. Consecutive ambulatory patients with lower gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms from 22 general practices in Switzerland, a country with ready access to colonoscopy, were enrolled during a 4-week period. Follow-up data were obtained at 3 months for patients who did not undergo a necessary colonoscopy. RESULTS: Eight thousand seven hundred sixty patient visits were screened for inclusion; 651 patients (7.4%) had lower GI symptoms (mean age 56.4 years, 68% women). Of these, 78 (12%) were referred for colonoscopy. Indications for colonoscopy in 11 patients (14% of colonoscopy referrals or 1.7% of all patients with lower GI symptoms) were judged inappropriate. Among 573 patients not referred for the procedure, underuse ranged between 11% and 28% of all patients with lower GI symptoms, depending on the criteria used. CONCLUSIONS: Applying criteria from an expert panel of nationally recognized experts indicates that underuse of referral for colonoscopy exceeds overuse in primary care in Switzerland. To improve quality of care, both overuse and underuse of important procedures must be addressed.

A safety run-in and randomized phase 2 study of cilengitide combined with chemoradiation for newly diagnosed glioblastoma (NABTT 0306).

BACKGROUND: Cilengitide is a selective integrin inhibitor that is well tolerated and has demonstrated biologic activity in patients with recurrent malignant glioma. The primary objectives of this randomized phase 2 trial were to determine the safety and efficacy of cilengitide when combined with radiation and temozolomide for patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme and to select a dose for comparative clinical testing. METHODS: In total, 112 patients were accrued. Eighteen patients received standard radiation and temozolomide with cilengitide in a safety run-in phase followed by a randomized phase 2 trial with 94 patients assigned to either a 500 mg dose group or 2000 mg dose group. The trial was designed to estimate overall survival benefit compared with a New Approaches to Brain Tumor Therapy (NABTT) Consortium internal historic control and data from the published European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) trial EORTC 26981. RESULTS: Cilengitide at all doses studied was well tolerated with radiation and temozolomide. The median survival was 19.7 months for all patients, 17.4 months for the patients in the 500 mg dose group, 20.8 months for patients in the 2000 mg dose group, 30 months for patients who had methylated O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) status, and 17.4 months for patients who had unmethylated MGMT status. For patients aged ≤70 years, the median survival and survival at 24 months was superior to what was observed in the EORTC trial (20.7 months vs 14.6 months and 41% vs 27%, respectively; P = .008). CONCLUSIONS: Cilengitide was well tolerated when combined with standard chemoradiation and may improve survival for patients newly diagnosed with glioblastoma multiforme regardless of MGMT methylation status. The authors concluded that, from an efficacy and safety standpoint, future trials of this agent in this population should use the 2000 mg dose. Cancer 2012. © 2012 American Cancer Society.

Chimpanzees and supporting models in the study of malaria pre-erythrocytic stages

Chimpanzees are being used in the study of immune response to Plasmodium falciparum malaria pre-erythrocytic stages (MPES). Responses induced by immunisation with recombinant/synthetic antigens and by irradiated sporozoites are being evaluated in a model system that is phylogenetically close to humans and that is amenable to limited manipulation not possible in humans. The value of chimpanzees for the in-depth study of immunological mechanisms at work in MPES-induced protection are discussed. A total number of 7 chimpanzees have been used to evaluate the immune response to recombinant antigens, and 5 have been challenged with large numbers of sporozoites, followed by surgical liver-wedge resection, in order to generate infected liver tissue for histological and immunological studies. As a complementary model, SCID mice carrying live, transplanted human and primate hepatocytes have been inoculated with sporozoites and infection of transplanted cells has been monitored by histological and immunological methods. In ongoing experiments chimpanzees are being immunised with MPES-derived lipopeptides that have been shown to overcome MHC restriction in mice, and with irradiated sporozoites.

Response to antiretroviral treatment in HIV-1-infected individuals with allelic variants of the multidrug resistance transporter 1: a pharmacogenetics study.

BACKGROUND:HIV-1-infected patients vary considerably by their response to antiretroviral treatment, drug concentrations in plasma, toxic events, and rate of immune recovery. This variability could have a genetic basis. We did a pharmacogenetics study to analyse the association between response to antiretroviral treatment and allelic variants of several genes. METHODS:In 123 patients, we did PCR analyses of the gene for the multidrug-resistance transporter (MDR1), which codes for P-glycoprotein, of genes coding for isoenzymes of cytochrome P450, CYP3A4, CYP3A5, CYP2D6, and CYP2C19, and of the gene for the chemokine receptor CCR5. We measured concentrations in plasma of the antiretroviral agents efavirenz and nelfinavir by high-performance liquid-chromatography, and measured levels of P-glycoprotein expression, CD4-cell count, and HIV-1 viraemia. FINDINGS: Median drug concentrations in patients with the MDR1 3435 TT, CT, and CC genotypes were at the 30th, 50th, and 75th percentiles, respectively (p=0.0001). In patients with CYP2D6 extensive-metaboliser or poor-metaboliser alleles, median drug concentrations were at percentiles 45 and 62.5, respectively (p=0.04). Patients with the MDR1 TT genotype 6 months after starting treatment had a greater rise in CD4-cell count (257 cells/microL) than patients with the CT (165 cells/microL) and CC (121 cells/microL) genotype (p=0.0048), and the best recovery of naïve CD4-cells. INTERPRETATION:The polymorphism MDR1 3435 C/T predicts immune recovery after initiation of antiretroviral treatment. This finding suggests that P-glycoprotein has an important role in admittance of antiretroviral drugs to restricted compartments in vivo.