Process to develop a State Model Law to reduce prescription drug trafficking while protecting pain management

This paper will discuss the intersection of pill mills and the under-treatment of pain, while addressing the unintended consequence that cracking down on pill mills actually has on medical professionals' treatment of legitimate pain in clinical settings. Moreover, the impact each issue has on the spectrum of related policy, regulatory issues and legislation will be analyzed while addressing the national impact on medical care. Lastly, this paper will outline a process to develop a State Model Law on this subject. This process will include suggestions for the future and how we can move forward to adequately address public safety needs and how we can attempt to mitigate the unintended impact prescription drug trafficking has had on a patient's right to appropriate pain management. This balance is achievable and this paper will address ways we can find this elusive balancing point through the development of a State Model Law. ^

BAYESIAN STATISTICAL METHODS IN GENE-ENVIRONMENT AND GENE-GENE INTERACTION STUDIES

Complex diseases such as cancer result from multiple genetic changes and environmental exposures. Due to the rapid development of genotyping and sequencing technologies, we are now able to more accurately assess causal effects of many genetic and environmental factors. Genome-wide association studies have been able to localize many causal genetic variants predisposing to certain diseases. However, these studies only explain a small portion of variations in the heritability of diseases. More advanced statistical models are urgently needed to identify and characterize some additional genetic and environmental factors and their interactions, which will enable us to better understand the causes of complex diseases. In the past decade, thanks to the increasing computational capabilities and novel statistical developments, Bayesian methods have been widely applied in the genetics/genomics researches and demonstrating superiority over some regular approaches in certain research areas. Gene-environment and gene-gene interaction studies are among the areas where Bayesian methods may fully exert its functionalities and advantages. This dissertation focuses on developing new Bayesian statistical methods for data analysis with complex gene-environment and gene-gene interactions, as well as extending some existing methods for gene-environment interactions to other related areas. It includes three sections: (1) Deriving the Bayesian variable selection framework for the hierarchical gene-environment and gene-gene interactions; (2) Developing the Bayesian Natural and Orthogonal Interaction (NOIA) models for gene-environment interactions; and (3) extending the applications of two Bayesian statistical methods which were developed for gene-environment interaction studies, to other related types of studies such as adaptive borrowing historical data. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical mixture model framework that allows us to investigate the genetic and environmental effects, gene by gene interactions (epistasis) and gene by environment interactions in the same model. It is well known that, in many practical situations, there exists a natural hierarchical structure between the main effects and interactions in the linear model. Here we propose a model that incorporates this hierarchical structure into the Bayesian mixture model, such that the irrelevant interaction effects can be removed more efficiently, resulting in more robust, parsimonious and powerful models. We evaluate both of the 'strong hierarchical' and 'weak hierarchical' models, which specify that both or one of the main effects between interacting factors must be present for the interactions to be included in the model. The extensive simulation results show that the proposed strong and weak hierarchical mixture models control the proportion of false positive discoveries and yield a powerful approach to identify the predisposing main effects and interactions in the studies with complex gene-environment and gene-gene interactions. We also compare these two models with the 'independent' model that does not impose this hierarchical constraint and observe their superior performances in most of the considered situations. The proposed models are implemented in the real data analysis of gene and environment interactions in the cases of lung cancer and cutaneous melanoma case-control studies. The Bayesian statistical models enjoy the properties of being allowed to incorporate useful prior information in the modeling process. Moreover, the Bayesian mixture model outperforms the multivariate logistic model in terms of the performances on the parameter estimation and variable selection in most cases. Our proposed models hold the hierarchical constraints, that further improve the Bayesian mixture model by reducing the proportion of false positive findings among the identified interactions and successfully identifying the reported associations. This is practically appealing for the study of investigating the causal factors from a moderate number of candidate genetic and environmental factors along with a relatively large number of interactions. The natural and orthogonal interaction (NOIA) models of genetic effects have previously been developed to provide an analysis framework, by which the estimates of effects for a quantitative trait are statistically orthogonal regardless of the existence of Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) within loci. Ma et al. (2012) recently developed a NOIA model for the gene-environment interaction studies and have shown the advantages of using the model for detecting the true main effects and interactions, compared with the usual functional model. In this project, we propose a novel Bayesian statistical model that combines the Bayesian hierarchical mixture model with the NOIA statistical model and the usual functional model. The proposed Bayesian NOIA model demonstrates more power at detecting the non-null effects with higher marginal posterior probabilities. Also, we review two Bayesian statistical models (Bayesian empirical shrinkage-type estimator and Bayesian model averaging), which were developed for the gene-environment interaction studies. Inspired by these Bayesian models, we develop two novel statistical methods that are able to handle the related problems such as borrowing data from historical studies. The proposed methods are analogous to the methods for the gene-environment interactions on behalf of the success on balancing the statistical efficiency and bias in a unified model. By extensive simulation studies, we compare the operating characteristics of the proposed models with the existing models including the hierarchical meta-analysis model. The results show that the proposed approaches adaptively borrow the historical data in a data-driven way. These novel models may have a broad range of statistical applications in both of genetic/genomic and clinical studies.

Phosphorus components, CaCO3 and biogenic opal in sediments from ODP Leg 167 sites

The ocean history of reactive phosphorus (P) (i.e., dissolved P available to fuel oceanic primary productivity) is of interest because of the role of P as a biolimiting nutrient, and knowledge of P burial in marine sediments is key to testing hypotheses about temporal changes in P input or output fluxes. Our understanding of the history of the P cycle over the Cenozoic has increased substantially with temporal records of reactive P mass accumulation rates from open-ocean Pacific and Atlantic equatorial sites. However, questions about the relative importance of nutrient burial in ocean-margin sediments relative to burial in open-ocean sediments and about the extent of P remobilization in organic-rich, reducing environments characteristic of margin sediments remain unresolved. Nutrient burial in oceanic boundary current systems has been suggested to have a controlling role in oceanic nutrient budgets in certain time intervals (Vincent and Berger, 1985, doi:10.1029/GM032p0455), with higher sediment accumulation rates balancing the limited spatial extent of these sediments. Some investigators suggest that remobilization of P from reducing sediments in margin settings is a significant positive feedback to primary productivity (e.g., Van Cappellan and Ingall, 1994, doi:10.1029/94PA01455), whereas other results indicate that both P uptake and P release may occur in these settings depending on the balance of organic carbon and iron supply to the sediments and on the oxygenation of bottom waters (McManus et al., 1997, doi:10.1016/S0016-7037(97)00138-5). It is important to quantitatively understand the geochemistry of reactive P in margin sediments, where productivity and delivery of organic-rich material to the sediments in relatively shallow-water settings is often sufficient to promote anoxia in interstitial waters. To address these questions, we determined the P concentrations and geochemistry in sediment samples from eight sites drilled during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 167, California margin (Sites 1010-1012, 1014, 1016-1017, and 1021-1022). These results are the first records of reactive P concentrations on long time scales-required for the calculation of P accumulation rates-for sediments from a highly productive eastern boundary current setting. In addition, we determined calcium carbonate contents and biogenic silica concentrations to define the environments of sedimentary production, burial, and diagenesis.

(Table 1) Estimated e-Nd(0) input calculated using the relative fraction of ODP Hole 105-647A amphibole grains originated from different provinces of the North America

Many marine radiogenic isotope records show both spatial and temporal variations, reflecting both the degree of mixing of distinct sources in the oceans and changes in the distribution of chemical weathering on the continents. However, changes in weathering and transport processes may themselves affect the composition of radiogenic isotopes released into seawater. The provenance of physically weathered material in the Labrador Sea, constrained through the use of Ar-Ar ages of individual detrital minerals, has been used to estimate the relative contributions of chemically weathered terranes releasing radiogenic isotopes into the Labrador Sea. A simple box-model approach for balancing observed Nd-isotope variations has been used to constrain the relative importance of localised input in the Labrador Sea, and the subsequent mixing of Labrador Sea Water into North Atlantic Deep-Water. The long-term pattern of erosion and deep-water formation around the North Atlantic seems to have been a relatively stable feature since 1.5 Ma, although there has been a dramatic shift in the nature of physical and chemical weathering affecting the release of Hf and Pb isotopes. The modelled Nd isotopes imply a relative decrease in water mass advection into the Labrador Sea between 2.4 and 1.5 Ma, accompanied by a decrease in the rate of overturning, possibly caused by an increased freshwater input into the Labrador Sea.

Porewater and solid-phase phosphorus geochemistry in surface sediments of sediment core GeoB9510-3, GeoB9518-4 and GeoB9519-6

Despite intensive research on the different domains of the marine phosphorus (P) cycle during the last decades, frequently discussed open questions still exist especially on controlling factors for the benthic behaviour of P and its general distribution in sediment-pore water systems. Steady state or the internal balance of all relevant physical and (bio)geochemical processes are amongst the key issues. In this study we present and discuss an extended data set from surface sediments recovered from three locations on the NW African continental slope. Pore water data and results from sequential sediment extractions give clear evidence to the well-known close relationship between the benthic cycles of P and iron. Accordingly, most of the dissolved phosphate must have been released by microbially catalyzed reductive dissolution of iron (oxhydr)oxides. However, rates of release and association of P and iron, respectively, are not directly represented in profiles of element specific sediment compositions. Results from steady-state based transport-reaction modelling suggest that particle mixing due to active bioturbation, or rather a physical net downward transport of P associated to iron (oxyhydr)oxides, is an essential process for the balance of the inspected benthic cycles. This study emphasizes the importance of balancing analytical data for a comprehensive understanding of all processes involved in biogeochemical cycles.

Explaining the Persistence of State-ownership in China

In the recent decade China witnessed an upsurge of privatization of small and medium state-owned enterprises (SOEs). In contrast to the consequent sharp reduction in the number of firms, however, the estimated share of broadly-defined SOEs that includes limited liabilities companies controlled by the State has shown virtually no sign of decline. We explain the backgrounds of this seemingly paradoxical persistence of state-ownership by looking into two distinctive types of large SOEs: traditional SOEs that remain dominant in oligopolistic industries and manager-controlled SOEs surviving in competitive industries. The two types exemplify several factors constraining further progress of SOE reform such as, financing the costs of restructuring, redefining the role of the State as the single dominant shareholder, and balancing the interests of the State and managers as entrepreneurs. Sorting these issues out will take time, which means that instabilities associated with state corporate ownership will remain in place in the foreseeable future in China.

Post-1988 civil-military relations in Myanmar

This paper explores the development of civil–military relations in Myanmar since 1988. After the Tatmadaw (Myanmar Armed Forces) took over the state by means of a coup d’état in 1988, the top generals ruled the country without recourse to significant formal political institutions such as a constitution, elections and parliament. A unique authoritarian regime, where political power was predominantly under the military’s influence, lasted for more than 20 years in the country. It seemed to many observers that the military regime was highly durable and that its dictator, General Than Shwe, had no intention of altering the highly repressive character of the political system. However, a new leader, President Thein Sein, who came to power in March 2011, has decided to implement some political and economic reforms that could undermine the Tatmadaw’s dominant role in politics and the economy. This paper examines the background to this sudden political change in Myanmar, focusing on the relationship between its dictator, the military and the state. This paper’s main argument is that Than Shwe has carefully prepared the transition of 2011 as a generational change in the Tatmadaw and in state leadership. The argument is also made that the challenges created by Thein Sein can be understood as a result of his redefinition of national security and balancing of security-centralism with state-led developmentalism.

Mejora del comportamiento térmico de los morteros de cal aditivados y su empleo en la rehabilitación de inmuebles = Improvement of thermal behaviour of additived lime mortars and their use in rehabilitation of buildings

La envolvente de la edificación es la responsable de equilibrar el intercambio energético entre el interior y el exterior, por lo tanto cualquier actuación encaminada a la reducción del consumo energético ha de establecer, como uno de sus objetivos prioritarios, la mejora del comportamiento de la misma. Las edificaciones anteriores a 1940 constituyen la mayor parte de las existentes en áreas rurales y centros urbanos. En ellas, la repercusión de la fachada sobre las transmitancias globales pone de manifiesto la necesidad de intervención. Sin embargo, su elevada inercia térmica y los importantes saltos térmicos característicos de gran parte de España plantean la importancia de que aquélla se efectúe por el exterior. A tal respecto, la falta de disponibilidad de espesor suficiente para implantar sistemas tipo SATE deriva en que, frecuentemente, la única solución viable sea la de aislar por el interior perdiendo con ello la capacidad de acumulación térmica del muro y con el asociado riesgo de condensaciones. La amplia tradición en el empleo de revestimientos, especialmente en base de cal, permiten que éstos sean utilizados no sólo como elemento estético o de protección de la obra de fábrica antigua sino también para la mejora del comportamiento térmico del soporte, si se aprovecha el mecanismo de transmisión térmica por radiación. Éste es el objetivo de la presente Tesis Doctoral en la que se estudia la modificación de las propiedades radiantes de los morteros de revestimiento para la mejora de la eficiencia energética de las construcciones históricas, principalmente las constituidas por muros monolíticos, aunque podría ser de aplicación a otro tipo de construcciones compuestas por diversas capas. Como punto de partida, se estudió y revisó la documentación disponible sobre las investigaciones de las tres áreas científico-tecnológicas que convergen en la Tesis Doctoral: rehabilitación, material y comportamiento térmico, a partir de lo cual se comprobó la inexistencia de estudios similares al objeto de la presente Tesis Doctoral. Complementariamente, se analizaron los revestimientos en lo concerniente a los materiales que los constituyen, la composición de las mezclas y características de cada una de las capas así como al enfoque que, desde el punto de vista térmico, se estimaba más adecuado para la obtención de los objetivos propuestos. Basándonos en dichos análisis, se preseleccionaron ochenta materiales que fueron ensayados en términos de reflectancia y emisividad para elegir cuatro con los que se continuó la investigación. Éstos, junto con la cal elegida para la investigación y el árido marmóreo característico de la última capa de revestimiento, fueron caracterizados térmicamente, de forma pormenorizada, así como química y físicamente. Los fundamentos teóricos y los estudios preliminares desarrollados con distintos materiales, en estado fresco y endurecido, fueron empleados en la dosificación de componentes de las mezclas, en dos proporciones distintas, para el estudio del efecto del agregado. Éstas se ensayaron en estado fresco, para comprobar su adecuación de puesta en obra y prever su VI adherencia al soporte, así como en estado endurecido a 28 y 90 días de curado, para conocer las propiedades que permitieran prever su compatibilidad con aquél y estimar el alcance de la reducción de transferencias térmicas lograda. Además, se estudiaron las características generales de las mezclas que sirvieron para establecer correlaciones entre distintas propiedades y entender los resultados mecánicos, físicos (comportamiento frente al agua) y energéticos. Del estudio conjunto de las distintas propiedades analizadas se propusieron dos mezclas, una blanca y otra coloreada, cuyas características permiten garantizar la compatibilidad con la obra de fábrica antigua, desde el punto de vista físico y mecánico, y preservar la autenticidad de los revestimientos, en cuanto a la técnica de aplicación tradicional en sistemas multicapa. El comportamiento térmico de las mismas, sobre una obra de fábrica de 40 cm de espesor, se estimó, en estado estacionario y pseudo-transitorio, demostrándose reducciones del flujo térmico entre 16-48%, en condiciones de verano, y entre el 6-11%, en invierno, en función de la coloración y de la rugosidad de la superficie, en comparación con el empleo de la mezcla tradicional. Por lo que, se constata la viabilidad de los materiales compuestos propuestos y su adecuación al objetivo de la investigación. VII ABSTRACT The envelope is responsible for balancing the energy exchange between the inside and outside in buildings. For this reason, any action aimed at reducing energy consumption must establish, as one of its key priorities, its improvement. In rural areas and urban centers, most of the constructions were built before 1940. In them, the impact of the façade on the global transmittance highlights the need for intervention. However, its high thermal inertia and fluctuation of temperatures in the majority of Spain bring up that it should be placed outside the insulation. In this regard, the lack of availability of enough thickness to implement systems such as ETICS results in that often the only viable solution is to isolate the interior, losing thereby the wall’s heat storage capacity with the associated risk of condensation. The tradition in the use of renders, especially lime-based, allows us to use them not only as an aesthetic element or to protect the ancient masonry, but also for improved thermal performance of the support by taking advantage of the heat transfer mechanism by radiation. This is the aim of this Doctoral Thesis in which the modification of the radiative properties of lime mortars for renders to improve the energy efficiency of historic buildings, mainly composed of monolithic walls, is studied, although it could be applied to other structures composed of several layers. As a starting point, the available literature in the three scientific-technological areas that converge at the Doctoral Thesis: rehabilitation, material and thermal behaviour, was reviewed, and confirmed the absence of researches similar to this Doctoral Thesis. Additionally, the renders were studied with regard to the materials that constitute them, the composition of the mixtures and the characteristics of each layer, as well as to the approach which, from a thermal point of view, was deemed the most suitable for achieving the objectives sets. Based on thre aforementioned analysis, eighty materials tested in terms of reflectance and emissivity were pre-selected, to choose four with which the research was continued. Common marble sand, used in the last layer of the renders, together with the appointed materials and hydrated lime were characterized thermally, in detail, as well as chemically and physically. The theoretical bases and preliminary studies with different materials, in fresh and hardened state, were used in the dosage of the composition of the mixtures. In order to study their effect they were used in two different proportions, that is, ten mixtures in total. These were tested in their fresh state to evaluate their setting-up suitability and foresee their adhesion to the support, as well as in their hardened state, at 28 and 90 days of curing, to establish the properties which enabled us to anticipate their compatibility with the old masonry walls and estimate the scope of the reduction of heat transfers achieved. In addition, the general characteristics of the mixtures used to establish correlations and to understand the mechanical, physical and energy results were studied. Two mixtures, one white and one colored, were proposed as the result of the different properties analysed, whose characteristics allow the guarantee of mechanical and physical compatibility VIII with the old masonry and preserve the authenticity of the renders. The thermal behavior of both, applied on a masonry wall 40 cm thick, was estimated at a steady and pseudo-transient state, with heat flow reductions between 16-48% during summertime and 6-11% during wintertime, depending on the color and surface roughness, compared to the use of the traditional mixture. So, the viability of the proposed composite materials and their fitness to the aim of the research are established.

StreamCloud: An Elastic Parallel-Distributed Stream Processing Engine

In recent years, applications in domains such as telecommunications, network security or large scale sensor networks showed the limits of the traditional store-then-process paradigm. In this context, Stream Processing Engines emerged as a candidate solution for all these applications demanding for high processing capacity with low processing latency guarantees. With Stream Processing Engines, data streams are not persisted but rather processed on the fly, producing results continuously. Current Stream Processing Engines, either centralized or distributed, do not scale with the input load due to single-node bottlenecks. Moreover, they are based on static configurations that lead to either under or over-provisioning. This Ph.D. thesis discusses StreamCloud, an elastic paralleldistributed stream processing engine that enables for processing of large data stream volumes. Stream- Cloud minimizes the distribution and parallelization overhead introducing novel techniques that split queries into parallel subqueries and allocate them to independent sets of nodes. Moreover, Stream- Cloud elastic and dynamic load balancing protocols enable for effective adjustment of resources depending on the incoming load. Together with the parallelization and elasticity techniques, Stream- Cloud defines a novel fault tolerance protocol that introduces minimal overhead while providing fast recovery. StreamCloud has been fully implemented and evaluated using several real word applications such as fraud detection applications or network analysis applications. The evaluation, conducted using a cluster with more than 300 cores, demonstrates the large scalability, the elasticity and fault tolerance effectiveness of StreamCloud. Resumen En los útimos años, aplicaciones en dominios tales como telecomunicaciones, seguridad de redes y redes de sensores de gran escala se han encontrado con múltiples limitaciones en el paradigma tradicional de bases de datos. En este contexto, los sistemas de procesamiento de flujos de datos han emergido como solución a estas aplicaciones que demandan una alta capacidad de procesamiento con una baja latencia. En los sistemas de procesamiento de flujos de datos, los datos no se persisten y luego se procesan, en su lugar los datos son procesados al vuelo en memoria produciendo resultados de forma continua. Los actuales sistemas de procesamiento de flujos de datos, tanto los centralizados, como los distribuidos, no escalan respecto a la carga de entrada del sistema debido a un cuello de botella producido por la concentración de flujos de datos completos en nodos individuales. Por otra parte, éstos están basados en configuraciones estáticas lo que conducen a un sobre o bajo aprovisionamiento. Esta tesis doctoral presenta StreamCloud, un sistema elástico paralelo-distribuido para el procesamiento de flujos de datos que es capaz de procesar grandes volúmenes de datos. StreamCloud minimiza el coste de distribución y paralelización por medio de una técnica novedosa la cual particiona las queries en subqueries paralelas repartiéndolas en subconjuntos de nodos independientes. Ademas, Stream- Cloud posee protocolos de elasticidad y equilibrado de carga que permiten una optimización de los recursos dependiendo de la carga del sistema. Unidos a los protocolos de paralelización y elasticidad, StreamCloud define un protocolo de tolerancia a fallos que introduce un coste mínimo mientras que proporciona una rápida recuperación. StreamCloud ha sido implementado y evaluado mediante varias aplicaciones del mundo real tales como aplicaciones de detección de fraude o aplicaciones de análisis del tráfico de red. La evaluación ha sido realizada en un cluster con más de 300 núcleos, demostrando la alta escalabilidad y la efectividad tanto de la elasticidad, como de la tolerancia a fallos de StreamCloud.

Relating goal scheduling, precedence, and memory management in and-parallel execution of logic programs

The interactions among three important issues involved in the implementation of logic programs in parallel (goal scheduling, precedence, and memory management) are discussed. A simplified, parallel memory management model and an efficient, load-balancing goal scheduling strategy are presented. It is shown how, for systems which support "don't know" non-determinism, special care has to be taken during goal scheduling if the space recovery characteristics of sequential systems are to be preserved. A solution based on selecting only "newer" goals for execution is described, and an algorithm is proposed for efficiently maintaining and determining precedence relationships and variable ages across parallel goals. It is argued that the proposed schemes and algorithms make it possible to extend the storage performance of sequential systems to parallel execution without the considerable overhead previously associated with it. The results are applicable to a wide class of parallel and coroutining systems, and they represent an efficient alternative to "all heap" or "spaghetti stack" allocation models.

OSIA: Out-of-order scheduling for in-order arriving in concurrent multi-path transfer.

One major problem of concurrent multi-path transfer (CMT) scheme in multi-homed mobile networks is that the utilization of different paths with diverse delays may cause packet reordering among packets of the same ?ow. In the case of TCP-like, the reordering exacerbates the problem by bringing more timeouts and unnecessary retransmissions, which eventually degrades the throughput of connections considerably. To address this issue, we ?rst propose an Out-of-order Scheduling for In-order Arriving (OSIA), which exploits the sending time discrepancy to preserve the in-order packet arrival. Then, we formulate the optimal traf?c scheduling as a constrained optimization problem and derive its closedform solution by our proposed progressive water-?lling solution. We also present an implementation to enforce the optimal scheduling scheme using cascaded leaky buckets with multiple faucets, which provides simple guidelines on maximizing the utilization of aggregate bandwidth while decreasing the probability of triggering 3 dupACKs. Compared with previous work, the proposed scheme has lower computation complexity and can also provide the possibility for dynamic network adaptability and ?ner-grain load balancing. Simulation results show that our scheme signi?cantly alleviates reordering and enhances transmission performance.

StreamCloud: An elastic and scalable data streaming system

Many applications in several domains such as telecommunications, network security, large scale sensor networks, require online processing of continuous data lows. They produce very high loads that requires aggregating the processing capacity of many nodes. Current Stream Processing Engines do not scale with the input load due to single-node bottlenecks. Additionally, they are based on static con?gurations that lead to either under or over-provisioning. In this paper, we present StreamCloud, a scalable and elastic stream processing engine for processing large data stream volumes. StreamCloud uses a novel parallelization technique that splits queries into subqueries that are allocated to independent sets of nodes in a way that minimizes the distribution overhead. Its elastic protocols exhibit low intrusiveness, enabling effective adjustment of resources to the incoming load. Elasticity is combined with dynamic load balancing to minimize the computational resources used. The paper presents the system design, implementation and a thorough evaluation of the scalability and elasticity of the fully implemented system.

La evolución del paisaje fluvial en la confluencia de los ríos Tajo y Jarama

La tesis doctoral que se presenta realiza un análisis de la evolución del paisaje fluvial de las riberas de los ríos Tajo y Jarama en el entorno de Aranjuez desde una perspectiva múltiple. Contempla y conjuga aspectos naturales, tales como los hidrológicos, geomorfológicos y ecológicos; también culturales, como la regulación hidrológica y la gestión del agua, las intervenciones en cauce y márgenes, la evolución de la propiedad y los cambios de usos del suelo, fundamentalmente. Este análisis ha permitido identificar el sistema de factores, dinámico y complejo, que ha creado este paisaje, así como las interrelaciones, conexiones, condicionantes y dependencias de los descriptores paisajísticos considerados. Por ejemplo, se han estudiado las relaciones cruzadas observadas entre dinámica fluvial-propiedad de la tierra-estado de conservación, cuestiones que hasta la fecha no habían sido tratadas, evaluadas o cuantificadas en otros trabajos dedicados a esta zona. La investigación se ha organizado en tres fases fundamentales que han dado lugar a los capítulos centrales del documento (capítulos 2, 3 y 4). En primer lugar, se ha realizado una caracterización de los factores, naturales y culturales, que organizan el paisaje de este territorio eminentemente fluvial (geomorfología, factores climáticos e hidrológicos, vegetación, propiedad de la tierra y elementos culturales de significación paisajística). A continuación, se ha realizado el estudio de la evolución del paisaje fluvial mediante el análisis de diversos elementos, previamente identificados y caracterizados. Para ello se han procesado imágenes aéreas correspondientes a cinco series temporales así como varios planos antiguos, obteniendo una amplia base de datos que se ha analizado estadísticamente. Finalmente, se han contrastado los resultados parciales obtenidos en los capítulos anteriores, lo que ha permitido identificar relaciones causales entre los factores que organizan el paisaje y la evolución de los elementos que lo constituyen. También, interconexiones entre factores o entre elementos. Este método de trabajo ha resultado muy útil para la comprensión del funcionamiento y evolución de un sistema complejo, como el paisaje de la vega de Aranjuez, un territorio con profundas y antiguas intervenciones culturales donde lo natural, en cualquier caso, siempre subyace. Es posible que la principal aportación de este trabajo, también su diferencia más destacada respecto a otros estudios de paisaje, haya sido mostrar una visión completa y exhaustiva de todos los factores que han intervenido en la conformación y evolución del paisaje fluvial, destacando las relaciones que se establecen entre ellos. Esta manera de proceder puede tener una interesante faceta aplicada, de tal manera que resulta un instrumento muy útil para el diseño de planes de gestión de este territorio fluvial. No en vano, una parte sustancial de la vega del Tajo-Jarama en Aranjuez es un Lugar de Importancia Comunitaria (LIC) y su posterior e ineludible declaración como Zona de Especial Conservación (ZEC) de la Red Natura 2000, de acuerdo con lo establecido en la Directiva 92/43/CE, exige la elaboración de un Plan de Gestión que, en gran medida, podría nutrirse de lo presentado, analizado e interpretado en este trabajo. En este sentido, conviene señalar la conciencia ya asumida de considerar, por su carácter integrador de la realidad territorial, el paisaje como elemento clave para la gestión adecuada de la naturaleza y el territorio. Por otra parte, se considera que los resultados de esta Tesis Doctoral permitirían plantear medidas para la puesta en valor de un paisaje sobresaliente, cuyos límites sobrepasan con creces los que en la actualidad conforman el Paisaje Cultural declarado por la UNESCO. En suma, el análisis de este espacio fluvial realizado con la profundidad y amplitud que permite el método de trabajo seguido puede utilizarse para el diseño de estrategias que dirijan la evolución de este territorio en una línea que garantice su conservación global en términos paisajísticos, patrimoniales y ecológicos, permitiendo además, de este modo, su uso equilibrado como recurso económico, cultural o educativo. This doctoral thesis shows an analysis of fluvial landscape evolution from multiple perspectives on the banks of Tagus and Jarama rivers, around Aranjuez. The thesis contemplates and combines natural features, such as hydrological, geomorphological and ecological features, as well as cultural features, like hydrological regulation and water management, interventions in channels and margins, changes in ownership and land use changes, mainly. This analysis has allowed to identify the factors system, dynamic and complex, that this landscape has created, as well as the interrelationships, connections, constraints and dependencies among considered landscape descriptors. For example, we have studied the relationships observed among fluvial dynamics- land ownership -conservation status, issues not addressed, assessed or quantified up to now in other works about this area. The research is organized into three major phases that led to the paper's central chapters (Chapters 2, 3 and 4). First, there has been a characterization of the factors, both natural and cultural, that organize the landscape of this predominantly fluvial area (geomorphology, climate and hydrological factors, vegetation, land and cultural elements of landscape significance). Then, it was made to study of fluvial landscape evolution by analyzing various elements previously identified and characterized. Aerial images were processed for five series and several old maps, obtaining an extensive database, that has been analyzed statistically. Finally, we have contrasted the partial results obtained in the previous chapters, making it possible to identify causal relationships between the factors that organize the landscape and the evolution of the elements that constitute it. This working method has been very useful for understanding the operation and evolution of a complex system, as the landscape of the Vega de Aranjuez, a territory with deep and ancient cultural interventions where anyway, nature feature always lies. It is possible that the main contribution of this work, also its most prominent difference compared with other studies of landscape, has been to show a complete and exhaustive view of all factors involved in the formation and evolution of the fluvial landscape, highlighting the relationships established among them. This approach could have an interesting applied facet, so that is a very useful tool for designing management plans on this river territory. Not surprisingly, a substantial part of the valley of the Tagus-Jarama in Aranjuez is a Site of Community Importance (SCI) and their subsequent and inevitable declaration as Special Area of Conservation (SAC) of the Natura 2000 network, in accordance with the provisions Directive 92/43/EC, requires the development of a management plan that largely could draw on what was presented, analyzed and interpreted in this paper. In this regard, it should be noted conscience and assumed to consider, on the inclusiveness of territorial reality, the landscape as a key element for the proper management of nature and territory. On the other hand, it is considered that the results of this thesis allow to propose measures for enhancement of outstanding scenery, which go well beyond the boundaries that currently the Cultural Landscape declared by UNESCO. In sum, the analysis of this river area made with the depth and breadth that enables working method can be used to design strategies that address the evolution of this territory in a line that guarantees global conservation landscape terms, heritage and ecological, also, allowing its use as a balancing economic, cultural or educational resource.

El papel de la hidroelectricidad en el contexto de las energías renovables en España

En el artículo se discute el papel de la energía hidroeléctrica en el marco del sistema eléctrico español, donde existe una elevada penetración de energías no gestionables con una tendencia clara a aumentar en los próximos años. El desarrollo de nuevas centrales hidroeléctricas se basará probablemente en centrales reversibles. La energía hidroeléctrica es una tecnología madura y eficiente para el almacenamiento de energía a gran escala y contribuye por tanto de manera decisiva a la integración de fuentes renovables no gestionables. Los beneficios obtenidos con la operación punta-valle pueden ser insuficientes para compensar el coste de una nueva central. Sin embargo, los ingresos obtenidos pueden incrementarse sustancialmente mediante su participación en los servicios de ajuste del sistema. Ello requeriría un diseño apropiado del mercado eléctrico. La contribución de las centrales hidráulicas reversibles al balance producción-consumo puede extenderse a las horas valle utilizando, bien bombeo en velocidad variable o bien una configuración de cortocircuito hidráulico. La necesidad de mitigar los efectos hidrológicos aguas abajo de las centrales hidroeléctricas puede introducir algunas restricciones en la operación que limitaría de algún modo los servicios descritos más arriba. Sin embargo, cabe esperar que los efectos ambientales provocados por las centrales hidráulicas reversibles sean significativamente menores. In this paper the role of hydropower in electric power systems is discussed, in the framework of the Spanish system, where a high penetration of intermittent power sources exists, showing a clear trend to increase in next years. The development of new hydro power facilities will be likely based on pumped storage hydro power plants. Hydropower is a mature and efficient technology for large-scale energy storage and therefore represents a key contribution for the integration of intermittent power sources, such as wind or photovoltaic. The benefits obtained from load shifting may be insufficient to compensate the costs of a new plant. However, the obtained revenues can significantly increase through its contribution to providing ancillary services. This would require an appropriate design of the electricity market. The contribution of pumped storage hydro power plants to balancing services can be extended to off-peak hours, using either variable speed pumping or the hydraulic shortcircuit configuration. The need to mitigate hydrological effects downstream of hydro plants may introduce some operational constraints which could limit to some extent the services described above. However environmental effects caused by pumped storage hydro power plants are expected to be significantly smaller.