Taylor rule with hidden states

This work evaluates empirically the Taylor rule for the US and Brazil using Kalman Filter and Markov-Switching Regimes. We show that the parameters of the rule change significantly with variations in both output and output gap proxies, considering hidden variables and states. Such conclusions call naturally for robust optimal monetary rules. We also show that Brazil and US have very contrasting parameters, first because Brazil presents time-varying intercept, second because of the rigidity in the parameters of the Brazilian Taylor rule, regardless the output gap proxy, data frequency or sample data. Finally, we show that the long-run inflation parameter of the US Taylor rule is less than one in many periods, contrasting strongly with Orphanides (forthcoming) and Clarida, Gal´i and Gertler (2000), and the same happens with Brazilian monthly data.

In search of exchange rate predictability : a study about accuracy, consistency, and granger causality of forecasts generated by a Taylor Rule Model

Este estudo investiga o poder preditivo fora da amostra, um mês à frente, de um modelo baseado na regra de Taylor para previsão de taxas de câmbio. Revisamos trabalhos relevantes que concluem que modelos macroeconômicos podem explicar a taxa de câmbio de curto prazo. Também apresentamos estudos que são céticos em relação à capacidade de variáveis macroeconômicas preverem as variações cambiais. Para contribuir com o tema, este trabalho apresenta sua própria evidência através da implementação do modelo que demonstrou o melhor resultado preditivo descrito por Molodtsova e Papell (2009), o “symmetric Taylor rule model with heterogeneous coefficients, smoothing, and a constant”. Para isso, utilizamos uma amostra de 14 moedas em relação ao dólar norte-americano que permitiu a geração de previsões mensais fora da amostra de janeiro de 2000 até março de 2014. Assim como o critério adotado por Galimberti e Moura (2012), focamos em países que adotaram o regime de câmbio flutuante e metas de inflação, porém escolhemos moedas de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados da nossa pesquisa corroboram o estudo de Rogoff e Stavrakeva (2008), ao constatar que a conclusão da previsibilidade da taxa de câmbio depende do teste estatístico adotado, sendo necessária a adoção de testes robustos e rigorosos para adequada avaliação do modelo. Após constatar não ser possível afirmar que o modelo implementado provém previsões mais precisas do que as de um passeio aleatório, avaliamos se, pelo menos, o modelo é capaz de gerar previsões “racionais”, ou “consistentes”. Para isso, usamos o arcabouço teórico e instrumental definido e implementado por Cheung e Chinn (1998) e concluímos que as previsões oriundas do modelo de regra de Taylor são “inconsistentes”. Finalmente, realizamos testes de causalidade de Granger com o intuito de verificar se os valores defasados dos retornos previstos pelo modelo estrutural explicam os valores contemporâneos observados. Apuramos que o modelo fundamental é incapaz de antecipar os retornos realizados.

Taylor rule in Brazil

In this paper, we use the Taylor Rule to characterize empirically the Brazilian monetary policy before and after its major and succesful stabilization plan, Real Plan, launched in 1994. Specifically, we show how the inflation coefficient has changed after the stabilization plan was carried out. This is a natural experiment to test theories surrounding the Taylor Rule in which monetary instability is characterized by an inflation coefficient less than one, whereas monetary stability will have a greater than one coefficient (seeWoodford’s (2003)). Very suprisingly the paper shows that the inflation coefficient has remained less than one even after the stabilization. Our results are quite robust with respect to different samples, lags of variables, proxies for GDP, proxies for potential GDP and even with respect to econometric methods (see Bueno (2005a, 2005b)). The implications are very important both theoretically and empirically. First, it shows some gap in theory that deserves further investigation. Second, it suggests that the inflation targeting regime has been uneffective in Brazil confirming a feeling largerly spread among Brazilians.

Taylor rule in Brazil

In this paper, we use the Taylor Rule to characterize empirically the Brazilian monetary policy before and after its major and succesful stabilization plan, Real Plan, launched in 1994. Specifically, we show how the inflation coefficient has changed after the stabilization plan was carried out. This is a natural experiment to test theories surrounding the Taylor Rule in which monetary instability is characterized by an inflation coefficient less than one, whereas monetary stability will have a greater than one coefficient (seeWoodford’s (2003)). Very suprisingly the paper shows that the inflation coefficient has remained less than one even after the stabilization. Our results are quite robust with respect to different samples, lags of variables, proxies for GDP, proxies for potential GDP and even with respect to econometric methods (see Bueno (2005a, 2005b)). The implications are very important both theoretically and empirically. First, it shows some gap in theory that deserves further investigation. Second, it suggests that the inflation targeting regime has been uneffective in Brazil confirming a feeling largerly spread among Brazilians.

Prevalence and antimicrobial resistance patterns of methicillin-resistant staphylococci (MRS) isolated in a Veterinary Teaching Hospital in Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Analysis of the Priestley-Taylor alpha parameter for a bean crop

This work deals with the Priestley-Taylor model for evapotranspiration in different grown stages of a bean crop. Priestley and Taylor derived a practical Formulation for energy partitioning between the sensible and latent heat fluxes through the a parameter. Bowen ratio energy balance (BREB) was carried out for daily sensible and latent heat flux estimations in three different crop stages. Mean daily values of Priestley-Taylor a parameter were determined for eleven days during the crop cycle. Diurnal variation patterns of a are presented for the growing, flowering and graining periods. The mean values of 1.13 +/- 0.33, 1.26 +/- 0.74, 1.22 +/- 0.55 were obtained for a day in the growing, in the flowering and for graining periods, respectively. Eleven days values of a are shown and gave a mean value of 1.23 +/- 0.10 which agree on the reported literature.

Amostragem seqüencial com base na lei de Taylor para levantamento de Spodoptera frugiperda na cultura do milho

A lagarta do cartucho do milho é uma das principais pragas do milho nas Américas, podendo ocorrer durante todos os estágios de crescimento da cultura, causando perdas de 15 a 37% na produção. Neste trabalho estudou-se a distribuição espacial dessa praga no campo, com a finalidade de desenvolver um sistema de amostragem para estimar sua densidade populacional. Na área cultivada com milho foram selecionados 3 campos experimentais de 40 m x 250 m cada, divididos em 100 parcelas cada. Foram contados o número de lagartas pequenas e grandes de S. frugiperda nas folhas e no cartucho das plantas, em 10 plantas ao acaso por parcela, num total de 1000 plantas por campo, em 5, 5 e 4 datas de amostragem, respectivamente. Lagartas menores que 1 cm eram consideradas pequenas e lagartas maiores que 1 cm, grandes. Foram estimados os parâmetros da lei de Taylor, sendo as estimativas dos parâmetros das regressões altamente significativas para todas as categorias larvais. O parâmetro b da lei de Taylor para lagarta pequena foi igual a 1,57, indicando que a forma de distribuição dessa categoria larval é agregada. Para lagartas grandes o parâmetro b foi igual a 0,79, o que conduz a um tipo de distribuição tendendo para aleatoriedade. Para o número total de lagartas os resultados são equivalentes aos obtidos para lagartas pequenas. Foi desenvolvido um plano de amostragem seqüencial com base nos parâmetros da lei de Taylor.

Prevalence of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococci on a Farm: Staff can Harbour MRS When Animals do Not

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Cytogenetic and molecular markers reveal the complexity of the genus Piabina Reinhardt, 1867 (Characiformes: Characidae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Processo de trabalho e eficiência produtiva: Smith, Marx, Taylor e Lênin

A partir de reflexão sobre uma hipotética transição do capitalismo em sua natureza manufatureira ao socialismo, procura-se deixar marcada a razão pela qual, seguindo a proposta de Marx, essa transição exige que a produção se realize sob a égide da maquinaria. Consegue-se, como parte dessa reflexão, identificar, para o caso da manufatura, um trade-off entre eficiência produtiva e humanização das atividades de trabalho. Procura-se esclarecer que, dada a natureza do taylorismo-fordismo como reinvenção da manufatura, o exercício de início especulativo passa a ter sentido histórico. Busca-se argumentar que a ampla assimilação do taylorismo-fordismo pela experiência de implantação do socialismo na União Soviética a aprisionou ao mencionado trade-off , fazendo com que a primeira experiência de superação do capitalismo se impregnasse perversamente da mediocridade imanente ao taylorismo-fordismo. Finalmente, são feitos rápidos comentários acerca dos desdobramentos da recente automação de base microeletrônica sobre a natureza de um projeto socialista.

Determination of carbofuran and 3-hydroxycarbofuran residues in coconut water by solid-phase extraction and liquid chromatography with UV detection

A simple method was developed to determine carbofuran and 3-hydroxycarbofuran in coconut water. The procedure involved solid-phase extraction using C-18 cartridges with acetonitrile for elution. The analysis of these compounds was carried out by liquid chromatography with UV detection at 275 nm using a gradient solvent system. The method was validated with fortified samples at different concentration levels (0.01-2.5 mu g/mL). Average recoveries ranged from 81 to 95% with relative standard deviation between 1.6 and 12.5%. Each recovery analysis was repeated at least five times. Detection limits ranged from 0.008 to 0.01 mu g/mL. The analytical procedure was applied to coconut water samples from palms submitted to treatment with commercial formulation under field conditions.

Analysis of the Priestley-Taylor α parameter for a bean crop

This work deals with the Priestley-Taylor model for evapotranspiration in different grown stages of a bean crop. Priestley and Taylor derived a practical formulation for energy partitioning between the sensible and latent heat fluxes through the α parameter. Bowen ratio energy balance (BREB) was carried out for daily sensible and latent heat flux estimations in three different crop stages. Mean daily values of Priestley-Taylor α parameter were determined for eleven days during the crop cycle. Diurnal variation patterns of α are presented for the growing, flowering and graining periods. The mean values of 1.13 ± 0.33, 1.26 ± 0.74, 1.22 ± 0.55 were obtained for a day in the growing, in the flowering and for graining periods, respectively. Eleven days values of α are shown and gave a mean value of 1.23 ± 0.10 which agree on the reported literature.

Agronomic effectiveness of cationic phosphate impurities present in superphosphate fertilizers as affected by soil pH

The general concept that low-water-soluble phosphorus (P) fertilizers should be more agronomically effective when applied to acidic soils was developed based on sources containing mainly calcium (Ca)-P compounds, but it may not hold true for sources with different chemical composition. To obtain information related to this issue, two important iron (Fe)-potassium (K)-P compounds present in superphosphates [Fe 3 KH 8 (PO 4 ) 6·6H 2 O, H8, and Fe 3 KH 14 (PO 4 ) 8·4H 2 O, H14] were prepared and characterized. These P sources were used to provide 30 and 60 mg P kg -1 as neutral ammonium citrate (NAC)+H 2 O-soluble P. Reagent-grade monocalcium phosphate (MCP) was used as a standard P source with high water solubility with an additional rate of 120 mg P kg -1 included. Also, mixtures of both Fe-K-P compounds and MCP were prepared to provide 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100% of the total P as MCP. All sources were applied to a clayey loamy acid soil (pH 5.3) classified as Rhodic Kanhapludult. The soil was incubated at two rates (0 and 10 g kg -1 ) of lime, which resulted in pH 5.4 and 6.8. Upland rice was cultivated to maturity. The H14 compound confirmed to be a highly effective source of P for the rice plants at both soil pH, as opposed to the H8, which was poorly effective when applied alone. When mixed with water-soluble P (WSP), the H8 was able to provide P to the plants with the maximum yield of upland rice reached with 54.8 and 80.5% of WSP for pH 5.4 and 6.8, respectively. The high agronomic performance of the H14 compound clearly indicates that this low-water-soluble P source cannot be deemed as ineffective at high soil pH. Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.