Patterns of maximum body size evolution in Cenozoic land mammals: eco-evolutionary processes and abiotic forcing

There is accumulating evidence that macroevolutionary patterns of mammal evolution during the Cenozoic follow similar trajectories on different continents. This would suggest that such patterns are strongly determined by global abiotic factors, such as climate, or by basic eco-evolutionary processes such as filling of niches by specialization. The similarity of pattern would be expected to extend to the history of individual clades. Here, we investigate the temporal distribution of maximum size observed within individual orders globally and on separate continents. While the maximum size of individual orders of large land mammals show differences and comprise several families, the times at which orders reach their maximum size over time show strong congruence, peaking in the Middle Eocene, the Oligocene and the Plio-Pleistocene. The Eocene peak occurs when global temperature and land mammal diversity are high and is best explained as a result of niche expansion rather than abiotic forcing. Since the Eocene, there is a significant correlation between maximum size frequency and global temperature proxy. The Oligocene peak is not statistically significant and may in part be due to sampling issues. The peak in the Plio-Pleistocene occurs when global temperature and land mammal diversity are low, it is statistically the most robust one and it is best explained by global cooling. We conclude that the macroevolutionary patterns observed are a result of the interplay between eco-evolutionary processes and abiotic forcing

The dependence of radiative forcing and feedback on evolving patterns of surface temperature change in climate models

Experiments with CO2 instantaneously quadrupled and then held constant are used to show that the relationship between the global-mean net heat input to the climate system and the global-mean surface-air-temperature change is nonlinear in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The nonlinearity is shown to arise from a change in strength of climate feedbacks driven by an evolving pattern of surface warming. In 23 out of the 27 AOGCMs examined the climate feedback parameter becomes significantly (95% confidence) less negative – i.e. the effective climate sensitivity increases – as time passes. Cloud feedback parameters show the largest changes. In the AOGCM-mean approximately 60% of the change in feedback parameter comes from the topics (30N-30S). An important region involved is the tropical Pacific where the surface warming intensifies in the east after a few decades. The dependence of climate feedbacks on an evolving pattern of surface warming is confirmed using the HadGEM2 and HadCM3 atmosphere GCMs (AGCMs). With monthly evolving sea-surface-temperatures and sea-ice prescribed from its AOGCM counterpart each AGCM reproduces the time-varying feedbacks, but when a fixed pattern of warming is prescribed the radiative response is linear with global temperature change or nearly so. We also demonstrate that the regression and fixed-SST methods for evaluating effective radiative forcing are in principle different, because rapid SST adjustment when CO2 is changed can produce a pattern of surface temperature change with zero global mean but non-zero change in net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (~ -0.5 Wm-2 in HadCM3).

Physiological and behavioral patterns of corruption

We study the behavior and emotional arousal of the participants in an experimental auction, leading to an asymmetric social dilemma involving an auctioneer and two bidders. An antisocial transfer (bribe) which is beneficial for the auctioneer (official) is paid, if promised, by the winner of the auction. Some pro-social behavior on both the auctioneers' and the bidders' sides is observed even in the absence of any punishment mechanism (Baseline, Treatment 0). However, pro-social behavior is adopted by the vast majority of subjects when the loser of the auction can inspect the transaction between the winner and the auctioneer (Inspection, Treatment 1). The inspection and punishment mechanism is such that, if a bribe is (not) revealed, both corrupt agents (the denouncing bidder) lose(s) this period's payoffs. This renders the inspection option unprofitable for the loser and is rarely used, especially towards the end of the session, when pro-social behavior becomes pervasive. Subjects' emotional arousal was obtained through skin conductance responses. Generally speaking, our findings suggest that stronger emotions are associated with decisions deviating from pure monetary reward maximization, rather than with (un)ethical behavior per se. In fact, using response times as a measure of the subject's reflection during the decision-making process, we can associate emotional arousal with the conflict between primary or instinctive and secondary or contemplative motivations and, more specifically, with deviations from the subject's pure monetary interest.

National interest to global reform: patterns of reasoning in British foreign policy discourse

Discussion of the national interest often focuses on how Britain's influence can be maximized, rather than on the goals that influence serves. Yet what gives content to claims about the national interest is the means-ends reasoning which links interests to deeper goals. In ideal-typical terms, this can take two forms. The first, and more common, approach is conservative: it infers national interests and the goals they advance from existing policies and commitments. The second is reformist: it starts by specifying national goals and then asks how they are best advanced under particular conditions. New Labour's foreign policy discourse is notable for its explicit use of a reformist approach. Indeed, Gordon Brown's vision of a 'new global society' not only identifies global reform as a key means of fulfilling national goals, but also thereby extends the concept of the national interest well beyond a narrow concern with national security.

Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme cold winters in the UK

This study examines the atmospheric circulation patterns and surface features associated with the seven coldest winters in the U.K. since 1870, using the 20th Century Reanalysis. Six of these winters are outside the scope of previous reanalysis datasets; we examine them here for the first time. All winters show a marked lack of the climatological southwesterly flow over the UK, displaying easterly and northeasterly anomalies. Six of the seven winters (all except 1890) were associated with a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation; 1890 was characterised by a blocking anticyclone over and northeast of the UK.

Hidden Markov analysis describes dive patterns in semiaquatic animals

Existing methods of dive analysis, developed for fully aquatic animals, tend to focus on frequency of behaviors rather than transitions between them. They, therefore, do not account for the variability of behavior of semiaquatic animals, and the switching between terrestrial and aquatic environments. This is the first study to use hidden Markov models (HMM) to divide dives of a semiaquatic animal into clusters and thus identify the environmental predictors of transition between behavioral modes. We used 18 existing data sets of the dives of 14 American mink (Neovison vison) fitted with time-depth recorders in lowland England. Using HMM, we identified 3 behavioral states (1, temporal cluster of dives; 2, more loosely aggregated diving within aquatic activity; and 3, terminal dive of a cluster or a single, isolated dive). Based on the higher than expected proportion of dives in State 1, we conclude that mink tend to dive in clusters. We found no relationship between temperature and the proportion of dives in each state or between temperature and the rate of transition between states, meaning that in our study area, mink are apparently not adopting different diving strategies at different temperatures. Transition analysis between states has shown that there is no correlation between ambient temperature and the likelihood of mink switching from one state to another, that is, changing foraging modes. The variables provided good discrimination and grouped into consistent states well, indicating promise for further application of HMM and other state transition analyses in studies of semiaquatic animals.

Using experimental evolution to explore natural patterns between bacterial motility and resistance to bacteriophages

Resistance of bacteria to phages may be gained by alteration of surface proteins to which phages bind, a mechanism that is likely to be costly as these molecules typically have critical functions such as movement or nutrient uptake. To address this potential trade-off, we combine a systematic study of natural bacteria and phage populations with an experimental evolution approach. We compare motility, growth rate and susceptibility to local phages for 80 bacteria isolated from horse chestnut leaves and, contrary to expectation, find no negative association between resistance to phages and bacterial motility or growth rate. However, because correlational patterns (and their absence) are open to numerous interpretations, we test for any causal association between resistance to phages and bacterial motility using experimental evolution of a subset of bacteria in both the presence and absence of naturally associated phages. Again, we find no clear link between the acquisition of resistance and bacterial motility, suggesting that for these natural bacterial populations, phage-mediated selection is unlikely to shape bacterial motility, a key fitness trait for many bacteria in the phyllosphere. The agreement between the observed natural pattern and the experimental evolution results presented here demonstrates the power of this combined approach for testing evolutionary trade-offs.

A lagged response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns

The surface response to 11 year solar cycle variations is investigated by analyzing the long-term mean sea level pressure and sea surface temperature observations for the period 1870–2010. The analysis reveals a statistically significant 11 year solar signal over Europe, and the North Atlantic provided that the data are lagged by a few years. The delayed signal resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) following a solar maximum. The corresponding sea surface temperature response is consistent with this. A similar analysis is performed on long-term climate simulations from a coupled ocean-atmosphere version of the Hadley Centre model that has an extended upper lid so that influences of solar variability via the stratosphere are well resolved. The model reproduces the positive NAO signal over the Atlantic/European sector, but the lag of the surface response is not well reproduced. Possible mechanisms for the lagged nature of the observed response are discussed.

Causal relationships vs. emergent patterns in the global controls of fire frequency

Global controls on month-by-month fractional burnt area (2000–2005) were investigated by fitting a generalised linear model (GLM) to Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) data, with 11 predictor variables representing vegetation, climate, land use and potential ignition sources. Burnt area is shown to increase with annual net primary production (NPP), number of dry days, maximum temperature, grazing-land area, grass/shrub cover and diurnal temperature range, and to decrease with soil moisture, cropland area and population density. Lightning showed an apparent (weak) negative influence, but this disappeared when pure seasonal-cycle effects were taken into account. The model predicts observed geographic and seasonal patterns, as well as the emergent relationships seen when burnt area is plotted against each variable separately. Unimodal relationships with mean annual temperature and precipitation, population density and gross domestic product (GDP) are reproduced too, and are thus shown to be secondary consequences of correlations between different controls (e.g. high NPP with high precipitation; low NPP with low population density and GDP). These findings have major implications for the design of global fire models, as several assumptions in current models – most notably, the widely assumed dependence of fire frequency on ignition rates – are evidently incorrect.

The impacts of learning styles, learning patterns and demographic factors on learners’ performance in a blended learning environment

Many studies have widely accepted the assumption that learning processes can be promoted when teaching styles and learning styles are well matched. In this study, the synergy between learning styles, learning patterns, and gender as a selected demographic feature and learners’ performance were quantitatively investigated in a blended learning setting. This environment adopts a traditional teaching approach of ‘one-sizefits-all’ without considering individual user’s preferences and attitudes. Hence, evidence can be provided about the value of taking such factors into account in Adaptive Educational Hypermedia Systems (AEHSs). Felder and Soloman’s Index of Learning Styles (ILS) was used to identify the learning styles of 59 undergraduate students at the University of Babylon. Five hypotheses were investigated in the experiment. Our findings show that there is no statistical significance in some of the assessed factors. However, processing dimension, the total number of hits on course website and gender indicated a statistical significance on learners’ performance. This finding needs more investigation in order to identify the effective factors on students’ achievement to be considered in Adaptive Educational Hypermedia Systems (AEHSs).

Consumer purchasing behaviour towards fish and seafood products: patterns and insights from a sample of international studies

The present systematic review was performed to assess consumer purchasing behaviour towards fish and seafood products in the wide context of developed countries. Web of Science, Scopus, ScienceDirect and Google Scholar engines were used to search the existing literature and a total of 49 studies were identified for inclusion. These studies investigated consumer purchasing behaviour towards a variety of fish and seafood products, in different countries and by means of different methodological approaches. In particular, the review identifies and discusses the main drivers and barriers of fish consumption as well as consumers’ preferences about the most relevant attributes of fish and seafood products providing useful insights for both practitioners and policy makers. Finally, main gaps of the existing literature and possible trajectories for future research are also discussed.

Typographic meaning: readers’ impressions of patterns of typographic differentiation

This research explores whether patterns of typographic differentiation influence readers’ impressions of documents. It develops a systematic approach to typographic investigation that considers relationships between different kinds of typographic attributes, rather than testing the influence of isolated variables. An exploratory study using multiple sort tasks and semantic differential scales identifies that readers form a variety of impressions in relation to how typographic elements are differentiated in document design. Building on the findings of the exploratory study and analysis of a sample of magazines, the research describes three patterns of typographic differentiation: high, moderate, and low. Each pattern comprises clusters of typographic attributes and organisational principles that are articulated in relation to a specified level of typographic differentiation (amplified, medium, or subtle). The patterns are applied to two sets of controlled test material. Using this purposely-designed material, the influence of patterns of typographic differentiation on readers’ impressions of documents is explored in a repertory grid analysis and a paired comparison procedure. The results of these studies indicate that patterns of typographic differentiation consistently shape readers’ impressions of documents, influencing judgments of credibility, document address, and intended readership; and suggesting particular kinds of engagement and genre associations. For example, high differentiation documents are likely to be considered casual, sensationalist, and young; moderate differentiation documents are most likely to be seen as formal and serious; and low differentiation examples are considered calm. Typographic meaning is shown to be created through complex, yet systematic, interrelationships rather than reduced to a linear model of increasing or decreasing variation. The research provides a way of describing typographic articulation that has application across a variety of disciplines and design practice. In particular, it illuminates the ways in which typographic presentation is meaningful to readers, providing knowledge that document producers can use to communicate more effectively.

Motor imagery-induced EEG patterns in individuals with spinal cord injury and their impact on brain–computer interface accuracy

Objective. Assimilating the diagnosis complete spinal cord injury (SCI) takes time and is not easy, as patients know that there is no ‘cure’ at the present time. Brain–computer interfaces (BCIs) can facilitate daily living. However, inter-subject variability demands measurements with potential user groups and an understanding of how they differ to healthy users BCIs are more commonly tested with. Thus, a three-class motor imagery (MI) screening (left hand, right hand, feet) was performed with a group of 10 able-bodied and 16 complete spinal-cord-injured people (paraplegics, tetraplegics) with the objective of determining what differences were present between the user groups and how they would impact upon the ability of these user groups to interact with a BCI. Approach. Electrophysiological differences between patient groups and healthy users are measured in terms of sensorimotor rhythm deflections from baseline during MI, electroencephalogram microstate scalp maps and strengths of inter-channel phase synchronization. Additionally, using a common spatial pattern algorithm and a linear discriminant analysis classifier, the classification accuracy was calculated and compared between groups. Main results. It is seen that both patient groups (tetraplegic and paraplegic) have some significant differences in event-related desynchronization strengths, exhibit significant increases in synchronization and reach significantly lower accuracies (mean (M) = 66.1%) than the group of healthy subjects (M = 85.1%). Significance. The results demonstrate significant differences in electrophysiological correlates of motor control between healthy individuals and those individuals who stand to benefit most from BCI technology (individuals with SCI). They highlight the difficulty in directly translating results from healthy subjects to participants with SCI and the challenges that, therefore, arise in providing BCIs to such individuals

Digital technology and creative arts career patterns in the UK creative economy

The creative industries have attracted the attention of academics and policy makers for the complexity surrounding their development, supply-chains and models of production. In particular, many have recognised the difficulty in capturing the role that digital technologies play within the creative industries. Digital technologies are embedded in the production and market structures of the creative industries and are also partially distinct and discernible from it. This paper unfolds the role played by digital technologies focusing on a key aspect of its development: human capital. Using student micro-data collected by the Higher Education Statistical Agency (HESA) in the United Kingdom, we investigate the characteristics and location determinants of digital graduates. The paper deals specifically with understanding whether digital skills in the UK are equally embedded across the creative industries, or are concentrated in other sub-sectors. Furthermore, it explores the role that these graduates play in each sub-sector and their financial rewards. Findings suggest that digital technology graduates tend to concentrate in the software and gaming sub-sector of the creative industries but also are likely to be in embedded creative jobs outside of the creative industries. Although they are more likely to be in full-time employment than part-time or self-employment, they also suffer from a higher level of unemployment.