Bayesian designs with frequentist and Bayesian error rate considerations

So far, most Phase II trials have been designed and analysed under a frequentist framework. Under this framework, a trial is designed so that the overall Type I and Type II errors of the trial are controlled at some desired levels. Recently, a number of articles have advocated the use of Bavesian designs in practice. Under a Bayesian framework, a trial is designed so that the trial stops when the posterior probability of treatment is within certain prespecified thresholds. In this article, we argue that trials under a Bayesian framework can also be designed to control frequentist error rates. We introduce a Bayesian version of Simon's well-known two-stage design to achieve this goal. We also consider two other errors, which are called Bayesian errors in this article because of their similarities to posterior probabilities. We show that our method can also control these Bayesian-type errors. We compare our method with other recent Bayesian designs in a numerical study and discuss implications of different designs on error rates. An example of a clinical trial for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma is used to illustrate differences of the different designs.

Modelling growth rate of Penaeus monodon Fabricius in intensively managed ponds: effects of temperature, pond age and stocking density

Records of shrimp growth and water quality made during 12 crops from each of 48 ponds, over a period of 6.5 years, were provided by a Queensland, Australia, commercial shrimp farm, These data were analysed with a new growth model derived from the Gompertz model. The results indicate that water temperature, mortality and pond age significantly affect growth rates. After 180 days, shrimp reach 34 g at constant 30 degrees C, but only 15 g after the same amount of time at 20 degrees C. Mortality, through thinning the density of shrimp in the ponds, increased the growth rate, but the effect is small. With continual production, growth rates at first remained steady, then appeared to decrease for the sixth and seventh crop, after which they have increased steadily with each crop. It appears that conservative pond management, together with a gradual improvement in husbandry techniques, particularly feed management, brought about this change. This has encouraging implications for the long-term sustainability of the farming methods used. The growth model can be used to predict productivity, and hence, profitability, of new aquaculture locations or new production strategies.

Correlation of plasma IGF-I concentrations and growth rate in aquacultured finfish: a tool for assessing the potential of new diets

A recently developed radioimmunoassay (RIA) for measuring insulin-like growth factor (IGF-I) in a variety of fish species was used to investigate the correlation between growth rate and circulating IGF-I concentrations of barramundi (Lates calcarifer), Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Southern Bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii). Plasma IGF-I concentration significantly increased with increasing ration size in barramundi and IGF-I concentration was positively correlated to growth rates obtained in Atlantic salmon (r2=0.67) and barramundi (r2=0.65) when fed a variety of diet formulations. IGF-I was also positively correlated to protein concentration (r2=0.59). This evidence suggested that measuring IGF-I concentration may provide a useful tool for monitoring fish growth rate and also as a method to rapidly assess different aquaculture diets. However, no such correlation was demonstrated in the tuna study probably due to seasonal cooling of sea surface temperature shortly before blood was sampled. Thus, some recommendations for the design and sampling strategy of nutritional trials where IGF-I concentrations are measured are discussed

Genetic response to growth rate selection in pigs measured on two feeding levels

From the findings of McPhee et al. (1988), there is an expectation that selection in the growing pig for bodyweight gain measured on restricted feeding will result in favourable responses in the rate and efficiency of growth of lean pork on different levels of feeding. This paper examines this in two lines of Australian Large White pigs which have undergone 3 years of selection for high and for low growth rate over a 6-week period starting at 50 kg liveweight. Over this test period, pigs of both lines are all fed the same total amount of grower food, restricted to an estimated 80% of average ad libitum intake. 'Animal production for a consuming world': proceedings of 9th Congress of the AAAAP Societies and 23rd Biennial Conference of the ASAP and 17th Annual Symposium of the University of Sydney, Dairy Research Foundation, (DRF). Sydney, Australia.

A comparison of the excretion rate of endogenous purine derivatives in the urine of Bos indicus and Bos taurus steers

Estimates of microbial crude protein (MCP) production by ruminants, using a method based on the excretion of purine derivatives in urine, require an estimate of the excretion of endogenous purine derivatives (PD) by the animal. Current methods allocate a single value to all cattle. An experiment was carried out to compare the endogenous PD excretion in Bos taurus and high-content B. indicus (hereafter, B. indicus) cattle. Five Holstein–Friesian (B. taurus) and 5 Brahman (> 75% B. indicus) steers (mean liveweight 326 ± 3.0 kg) were used in a fasting study. Steers were fed a low-quality buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris; 59.4 g crude protein/kg dry matter) hay at estimated maintenance requirements for 19 days, after which hay intake was incrementally reduced for 2 days and the steers were fasted for 7 days. The excretion of PD in urine was measured daily for the last 6 days of the fasting period and the mean represented the daily endogenous PD excretion. Excretion of endogenous PD in the urine of B. indicus steers was less than half that of the B. taurus steers (190 µmol/kg W0.75.day v. 414 µmol/kg W0.75.day; combined s.e. 37.2 µmol/kg W0.75.day; P < 0.001). It was concluded that the use of a single value for endogenous PD excretion is inappropriate for use in MCP estimations and that subspecies-specific values would improve precision.

The use of animation to promote student learning about the importance of mental well-being for tertiary study success

It is now widely acknowledged that student mental well-being is a critical factor in the tertiary student learning experience and is important to student learning success. The issue of student mental well-being also has implications for effective student transition out of university and into the world of work. It is therefore vital that intentional strategies are adopted by universities both within the formal curriculum, and outside it, to promote student well-being and to work proactively and preventatively to avoid a decline in student psychological well-being. This paper describes how the Queensland University of Technology Law School is using animation to teach students about the importance for their learning success of the protection of their mental well-being. Mayer and Moreno (2002) define an animation as an external representation with three main characteristics: (1) it is a pictorial representation, (2) it depicts apparent movement, and (3) it consists of objects that are artificially created through drawing or some other modelling technique. Research into the effectiveness of animation as a tool for tertiary student learning engagement is relatively new and growing field of enquiry. Nash argues, for example, that animations provide a “rich, immersive environment [that] encourages action and interactivity, which overcome an often dehumanizing learning management system approach” (Nash, 2009, 25). Nicholas states that contemporary millennial students in universities today, have been immersed in animated multimedia since their birth and in fact need multimedia to learn and communicate effectively (2008). However, it has also been established, for example through the work of Lowe (2003, 2004, 2008) that animations can place additional perceptual, attentional, and cognitive demands on students that they are not always equipped to cope with. There are many different genres of animation. The dominant style of animation used in the university learning environment is expository animation. This approach is a useful tool for visualising dynamic processes and is used to support student understanding of subjects and themes that might otherwise be perceived as theoretically difficult and disengaging. It is also a form of animation that can be constructed to avoid any potential negative impact on cognitive load that the animated genre might have. However, the nature of expository animation has limitations for engaging students, and can present as clinical and static. For this reason, the project applied Kombartzky, Ploetzner, Schlag, and Metz’s (2010) cognitive strategy for effective student learning from expository animation, and developed a hybrid form of animation that takes advantage of the best elements of expository animation techniques along with more engaging short narrative techniques. First, the paper examines the existing literature on the use of animation in tertiary educational contexts. Second, the paper describes how animation was used at QUT Law School to teach students about the issue of mental well-being and its importance to their learning success. Finally, the paper analyses the potential of the use of animation, and of the cognitive strategy and animation approach trialled in the project, as a teaching tool for the promotion of student learning about the importance of mental well-being.

Two Methods of Ambiguity Resolution in Pulse Doppler Weather Radars

A comparison is made of the performance of a weather Doppler radar with a staggered pulse repetition time and a radar with a random (but known) phase. As a standard for this comparison, the specifications of the forthcoming next generation weather radar (NEXRAD) are used. A statistical analysis of the spectral momentestimates for the staggered scheme is developed, and a theoretical expression for the signal-to-noise ratio due to recohering-filteringrecohering for the random phase radar is obtained. Algorithms for assignment of correct ranges to pertinent spectral moments for both techniques are presented.

Systematic Construction of Linear Transform Based Full-Diversity, Rate-One Space-Time Frequency Codes

In this paper, we generalize the existing rate-one space frequency (SF) and space-time frequency (STF) code constructions. The objective of this exercise is to provide a systematic design of full-diversity STF codes with high coding gain. Under this generalization, STF codes are formulated as linear transformations of data. Conditions on these linear transforms are then derived so that the resulting STF codes achieve full diversity and high coding gain with a moderate decoding complexity. Many of these conditions involve channel parameters like delay profile (DP) and temporal correlation. When these quantities are not available at the transmitter, design of codes that exploit full diversity on channels with arbitrary DIP and temporal correlation is considered. Complete characterization of a class of such robust codes is provided and their bit error rate (BER) performance is evaluated. On the other hand, when channel DIP and temporal correlation are available at the transmitter, linear transforms are optimized to maximize the coding gain of full-diversity STF codes. BER performance of such optimized codes is shown to be better than those of existing codes.

Association of a second phase of mortality in cucumber seedlings with a rapid rate of metalaxyl biodegradation in greenhouse soils

A study was undertaken from 2004 to 2007 to investigate factors associated with decreased efficacy of metalaxyl to manage damping-off of cucumber in Oman. A survey over six growing seasons showed that growers lost up to 14.6% of seedlings following application of metalaxyl. No resistance to metalaxyl was found among Pythium isolates. Damping-off disease in the surveyed greenhouses followed two patterns. In most (69%) greenhouses, seedling mortality was found to occur shortly after transplanting and decrease thereafter (Phase-I). However, a second phase of seedling mortality (Phase-II) appeared 9-14 d after transplanting in about 31% of the surveyed greenhouses. Analysis of the rate of biodegradation of metalaxyl in six greenhouses indicated a significant increase in the rate of metalaxyl biodegradation in greenhouses, which encountered Phase-II damping-off. The half-life of metalaxyl dropped from 93 d in soil, which received no previous metalaxyl treatment to 14 d in soil, which received metalaxyl for eight consecutive seasons, indicating an enhanced rate of metalaxyl biodegradation after repeated use. Multiple applications of metalaxyl helped reduce the appearance of Phase-II damping-off. This appears to be the first report of rapid biodegradation of metalaxyl in greenhouse soils and the first report of its association with appearance of a second phase of mortality in cucumber seedlings.

Short-term responses of leaf growth rate to water deficit scale up to whole-plant and crop levels: An integrated modelling approach in maize.

Physiological and genetic studies of leaf growth often focus on short-term responses, leaving a gap to whole-plant models that predict biomass accumulation, transpiration and yield at crop scale. To bridge this gap, we developed a model that combines an existing model of leaf 6 expansion in response to short-term environmental variations with a model coordinating the development of all leaves of a plant. The latter was based on: (1) rates of leaf initiation, appearance and end of elongation measured in field experiments; and (2) the hypothesis of an independence of the growth between leaves. The resulting whole-plant leaf model was integrated into the generic crop model APSIM which provided dynamic feedback of environmental conditions to the leaf model and allowed simulation of crop growth at canopy level. The model was tested in 12 field situations with contrasting temperature, evaporative demand and soil water status. In observed and simulated data, high evaporative demand reduced leaf area at the whole-plant level, and short water deficits affected only leaves developing during the stress, either visible or still hidden in the whorl. The model adequately simulated whole-plant profiles of leaf area with a single set of parameters that applied to the same hybrid in all experiments. It was also suitable to predict biomass accumulation and yield of a similar hybrid grown in different conditions. This model extends to field conditions existing knowledge of the environmental controls of leaf elongation, and can be used to simulate how their genetic controls flow through to yield.

Phosphorus nutrition and tolerance of cotton to water stress: II. Water relations, free and bound water and leaf expansion rate

In previous experiments, increased leaf-Phosphorus (P) content with increasing P supply enhanced the individual leaf expansion and water content of fresh cotton leaves in a severely drying soil. In this paper, we report on the bulk water content of leaves and its components, free and bound water, along with other measures of plant water status, in expanding cotton leaves of various ages in a drying soil with different P concentrations. The bound water in living tissue is more likely to play a major role in tolerance to abiotic stresses by maintaining the structural integrity and/or cell wall extensibility of the leaves, whilst an increased amount of free water might be able to enhance solute accumulation, leading to better osmotic adjustment and tolerance to water stress, and maintenance of the volumes of sub-cellular compartments for expansive leaf growth. There were strong correlations between leaf-P%, leaf water (total, free and bound water) and leaf expansion rate (LER) under water stress conditions in a severely drying soil. Increased soil-P enhanced the uptake of P from a drying soil, leading to increased supply of osmotically active inorganic solutes to the cells in growing leaves. This appears to have led to the accumulation of free water and more bound water, ultimately leading to increased leaf expansion rates as compared to plants in low P soil under similar water stress conditions. The greater amount of bound and free water in the high-P plants was not necessarily associated with changes in cell turgor, and appears to have maintained the cell-wall properties and extensibility under water stressed conditions in soils that are nutritionally P-deficient.

A lesson from cyclone Larry: An untold story of the success of good coastal planning

When tropical cyclone Larry crossed the Queensland coast on 20 March 2006, commercial, recreational and naval vessels in the port of Cairns, 60 km north of the eye of the cyclone and others closer to the eye, were protected from the destructive winds by sheltering in deep mangrove creeks in Trinity Inlet and off other coastal rivers. The Trinity Inlet mangroves are protected under the comprehensive multi-use Trinity Inlet Management Plan, agreed by the local and state government agencies (Cairns City Council, the Cairns Port Authority and the Queensland Government). Using this Australian example and one from the town of Palompon in Leyte province, central Philippines, we show how long-term mangrove habitat protection resulting from well-conceived coastal planning can deliver important economic and infrastructure benefits.

Effect of changes in hook pattern and size on catch rate, hooking location, injury and bleeding for a number of tropical reef fish species

The Queensland Great Barrier Reef line fishery in Australia is regulated via a range of input and output controls including minimum size limits, daily catch limits and commercial catch quotas. As a result of these measures a substantial proportion of the catch is released or discarded. The fate of these released fish is uncertain, but hook-related mortality can potentially be decreased by using hooks that reduce the rates of injury, bleeding and deep hooking. There is also the potential to reduce the capture of non-target species though gear selectivity. A total of 1053 individual fish representing five target species and three non-target species were caught using six hook types including three hook patterns (non-offset circle, J and offset circle), each in two sizes (small 4/0 or 5/0 and large 8/0). Catch rates for each of the hook patterns and sizes varied between species with no consistent results for target or non-target species. When data for all of the fish species were aggregated there was a trend for larger hooks, J hooks and offset circle hooks to cause a greater number of injuries. Using larger hooks was more likely to result in bleeding, although this trend was not statistically significant. Larger hooks were also more likely to foul-hook fish or hook fish in the eye. There was a reduction in the rates of injuries and bleeding for both target and non-target species when using the smaller hook sizes. For a number of species included in our study the incidence of deep hooking decreased when using non-offset circle hooks, however, these results were not consistent for all species. Our results highlight the variability in hook performance across a range of tropical demersal finfish species. The most obvious conservation benefits for both target and non-target species arise from using smaller sized hooks and non-offset circle hooks. Fishers should be encouraged to use these hook configurations to reduce the potential for post-release mortality of released fish.

High-Rate, Multisymbol-Decodable STBCs From Clifford Algebras

It is well known that space-time block codes (STBCs) obtained from orthogonal designs (ODs) are single-symbol decodable (SSD) and from quasi-orthogonal designs (QODs) are double-symbol decodable (DSD). However, there are SSD codes that are not obtainable from ODs and DSD codes that are not obtainable from QODs. In this paper, a method of constructing g-symbol decodable (g-SD) STBCs using representations of Clifford algebras are presented which when specialized to g = 1, 2 gives SSD and DSD codes, respectively. For the number of transmit antennas 2(a) the rate (in complex symbols per channel use) of the g-SD codes presented in this paper is a+1-g/2(a-9). The maximum rate of the DSD STBCs from QODs reported in the literature is a/2(a-1) which is smaller than the rate a-1/2(a-2) of the DSD codes of this paper, for 2(a) transmit antennas. In particular, the reported DSD codes for 8 and 16 transmit antennas offer rates 1 and 3/4, respectively, whereas the known STBCs from QODs offer only 3/4 and 1/2, respectively. The construction of this paper is applicable for any number of transmit antennas. The diversity sum and diversity product of the new DSD codes are studied. It is shown that the diversity sum is larger than that of all known QODs and hence the new codes perform better than the comparable QODs at low signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) for identical spectral efficiency. Simulation results for DSD codes at variousspectral efficiencies are provided.