A multiple time scale survival model with a cure fraction

Many recent survival studies propose modeling data with a cure fraction, i.e., data in which part of the population is not susceptible to the event of interest. This event may occur more than once for the same individual (recurrent event). We then have a scenario of recurrent event data in the presence of a cure fraction, which may appear in various areas such as oncology, finance, industries, among others. This paper proposes a multiple time scale survival model to analyze recurrent events using a cure fraction. The objective is analyzing the efficiency of certain interventions so that the studied event will not happen again in terms of covariates and censoring. All estimates were obtained using a sampling-based approach, which allows information to be input beforehand with lower computational effort. Simulations were done based on a clinical scenario in order to observe some frequentist properties of the estimation procedure in the presence of small and moderate sample sizes. An application of a well-known set of real mammary tumor data is provided.

Blood transfusion utilization and recipient survival at Hospital das Clinicas in Sao Paulo, Brazil

BACKGROUND: The characteristics of blood recipients including diagnoses associated with transfusion and posttransfusion survival are unreported in Brazil. The goals of this analysis were: 1) to describe blood utilization according to clinical diagnoses and patient characteristics and 2) to determine the factors associated with survival of blood recipients. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A retrospective cross-sectional analysis was conducted on all inpatients in 2004. Data came from three sources: The first two files consist of data about patient characteristics, clinical diagnosis, and transfusion. Analyses comparing transfused and nontransfused patients were conducted. The third file was used to determine survival recipients up to 3 years after transfusion. Logistic regression was conducted among transfused patients to examine characteristics associated with survival. RESULTS: In 2004, a total of 30,779 patients were admitted, with 3835 (12.4%) transfused. These patients had 10,479 transfusions episodes, consisting of 39,561 transfused components: 16,748 (42%) red blood cells, 15,828 (40%) platelets (PLTs), and 6190 (16%) plasma. The median number of components transfused was three (range, 1-656) per patient admission. Mortality during hospitalization was different for patients whose admissions included transfusion or not (24% vs. 4%). After 1 year, 56% of transfusion recipients were alive. The multivariable model of factors associated with mortality after transfusion showed that the most significant factors in descending order were hospital ward, increasing age, increasing number of components transfused, and type of components received. CONCLUSION: Ward and transfusion are markers of underlying medical conditions and are associated with the probability of survival. PLT transfusions are common and likely reflect the types of patients treated. This comprehensive blood utilization study, the first of its kind in Brazil, can help in developing transfusion policy analyses in South America.

Extraoral Implants in the Rehabilitation of Craniofacial Defects: Implant and Prosthesis Survival Rates and Peri-Implant Soft Tissue Evaluation

Purpose: Few reports have evaluated cumulative survival rates of extraoral rehabilitation and peri-implant soft tissue reaction at long-term follow-up. The objective of this study was to evaluate implant and prosthesis survival rates and the soft tissue reactions around the extraoral implants used to support craniofacial prostheses. Materials and Methods: A retrospective study was performed of patients who received implants for craniofacial rehabilitation from 2003 to 2010. Two outcome variables were considered: implant and prosthetic success. The following predictor variables were recorded: gender, age, implant placement location, number and size of implants, irradiation status in the treated field, date of prosthesis delivery, soft tissue response, and date of last follow-up. A statistical model was used to estimate survival rates and associated confidence intervals. We randomly selected 1 implant per patient for analysis. Data were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test to compare survival curves. Results: A total of 150 titanium implants were placed in 56 patients. The 2-year overall implant survival rates were 94.1% for auricular implants, 90.9% for nasal implants, 100% for orbital implants, and 100% for complex midfacial implants (P = .585). The implant survival rates were 100% for implants placed in irradiated patients and 94.4% for those placed in nonirradiated patients (P = .324). The 2-year overall prosthesis survival rates were 100% for auricular implants, 90.0% for nasal implants, 92.3% for orbital implants, and 100% for complex midfacial implants (P = .363). The evaluation of the peri-implant soft tissue response showed that 15 patients (26.7%) had a grade 0 soft tissue reaction, 30 (53.5%) had grade 1, 6 (10.7%) had grade 2, and 5 (8.9%) had grade 3. Conclusions: From this study, it was concluded that craniofacial rehabilitation with extraoral implants is a safe, reliable, and predictable method to restore the patient's normal appearance. (C) 2012 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons J Oral Maxillofac Surg 70:1551-1557, 2012

Positive fluid balance is associated with reduced survival in critically ill patients with cancer

Background There are no studies that describe the impact of the cumulative fluid balance on the outcomes of cancer patients admitted to intensive care units ICUs. The aim of our study was to evaluate the relationship between fluid balance and clinical outcomes in these patients. Method One hundred twenty-two cancer patients were prospectively evaluated for survival during a 30-day period. Univariate (Chi-square, t-test, MannWhitney) and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to identify the admission parameters associated with mortality. Results The mean cumulative fluid balance was significantly higher in non-survivors than in survivors [1675?ml/24?h (4712921) vs. 887?ml/24?h (104557), P?=?0.017]. We used the area under the curve and the intersection of the sensibility and specificity curves to define a cumulative fluid balance value of 1100?ml/24?h. This value was used in the univariate model. In the multivariate model, the following variables were significantly associated with mortality in cancer patients: the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score at admission [Odds ratio (OR) 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.051.26), P?=?0.003], the Lung Injury Score at admission [OR 2.23; 95% CI (1.293.87), P?=?0.004] and a positive fluid balance higher than 1100?ml/24?h at ICU [OR 5.14; 95% CI (1.4518.24), P?=?0.011]. Conclusion A cumulative positive fluid balance higher than 1100?ml/24?h was independently associated with mortality in patients with cancer. These findings highlight the importance of improving the evaluation of these patients' volemic state and indicate that defined goals should be used to guide fluid therapy.

Overall Survival Improvement in Patients with Lung Cancer and Bone Metastases Treated with Denosumab Versus Zoledronic Acid Subgroup Analysis from a Randomized Phase 3 Study

Introduction: Denosumab, a fully human anti-RANKL monoclonal antibody, reduces the incidence of skeletal-related events in patients with bone metastases from solid tumors. We present survival data for the subset of patients with lung cancer, participating in the phase 3 trial of denosumab versus zoledronic acid (ZA) in the treatment of bone metastases from solid tumors (except breast or prostate) or multiple myeloma. Methods: Patients were randomized 1:1 to receive monthly subcutaneous denosumab 120 mg or intravenous ZA 4 mg. An exploratory analysis, using Kaplan-Meier estimates and proportional hazards models, was performed for overall survival among patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and SCLC. Results: Denosumab was associated with improved median overall survival versus ZA in 811 patients with any lung cancer (8.9 versus 7.7 months; hazard ratio [HR] 0.80) and in 702 patients with NSCLC (9.5 versus 8.0 months; HR 0.78) (p = 0.01, each comparison). Further analysis of NSCLC by histological type showed a median survival of 8.6 months for denosumab versus 6.4 months for ZA in patients with squamous cell carcinoma (HR 0.68; p = 0.035). Incidence of overall adverse events was balanced between treatment groups; serious adverse events occurred in 66.0% of denosumab-treated patients and 72.9% of ZA-treated patients. Cumulative incidence of osteonecrosis of the jaw was similar between groups (0.7% denosumab versus 0.8% ZA). Hypocalcemia rates were 8.6% with denosumab and 3.8% with ZA. Conclusion: In this exploratory analysis, denosumab was associated with improved overall survival compared with ZA, in patients with metastatic lung cancer.

Early development, survival and growth rates of the giant clam Tridacna crocea (Bivalvia: Tridacnidae)

Tridacnid clams are conspicuous inhabitants of Indo-Pacific coral reefs and are traded and cultivated for the aquarium and food industries. In the present study, daily growth rates of larvae of the giant clam Tridacna crocea were determined in the laboratory during the first week of life. Adults were induced to spawn via intra-gonadal serotonin injection through the byssal orifice. After spawning oocytes were collected, fertilized and kept in 3 L glass beakers and raceways treated with antibiotics to avoid culture contamination. Larvae were fed twice with the microalga Isochrysis galbana and zooxanthellae were also offered twice during the veliger stage (days 4 and 6). Larval length was measured using a digitizing tablet coupled to a microcomputer. Larval mortality was exponential during the first 48 hours of life declining significantly afterwards. Mean growth rate was 11.3 mu m day-1, increasing after addition of symbionts to 18.0 mu m day-1. Survival increased to ca. 75% after the addition of zooxanthellae. The results describe the growth curve for T. crocea larvae and suggest that the acquisition of symbionts by larvae may be useful for larval growth and survival even before larvae have attained metamorphosis.

Paternal Care Decreases Foraging Activity and Body Condition, but Does Not Impose Survival Costs to Caring Males in a Neotropical Arachnid

Exclusive paternal care is the rarest form of parental investment in nature and theory predicts that the maintenance of this behavior depends on the balance between costs and benefits to males. Our goal was to assess costs of paternal care in the harvestman Iporangaia pustulosa, for which the benefits of this behavior in terms of egg survival have already been demonstrated. We evaluated energetic costs and mortality risks associated to paternal egg-guarding in the field. We quantified foraging activity of males and estimated how their body condition is influenced by the duration of the caring period. Additionally, we conducted a one-year capture-mark-recapture study and estimated apparent survival probabilities of caring and non-caring males to assess potential survival costs of paternal care. Our results indicate that caring males forage less frequently than non-caring individuals (males and females) and that their body condition deteriorates over the course of the caring period. Thus, males willing to guard eggs may provide to females a fitness-enhancing gift of cost-free care of their offspring. Caring males, however, did not show lower survival probabilities when compared to both non-caring males and females. Reduction in mortality risks as a result of remaining stationary, combined with the benefits of improving egg survival, may have played an important and previously unsuspected role favoring the evolution of paternal care. Moreover, males exhibiting paternal care could also provide an honest signal of their quality as offspring defenders, and thus female preference for caring males could be responsible for maintaining the trait.

Co-expression of monocarboxylate transporter 1 (MCT1) and its chaperone (CD147) is associated with low survival in patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs)

Monocarboxylate transporters (MCTs) have been described to play an important role in cancer, but to date there are no reports on the significance of MCT expression in gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs). The aim of the present work was to assess the value of MCT expression, as well as co-expression with the MCT chaperone CD147 in GISTs and evaluate their clinical-pathological significance. We analyzed the immunohistochemical expression of MCT1, MCT2, MCT4 and CD147 in a series of 64 GISTs molecularly characterized for KIT, PDGFRA and BRAF mutations. MCT1, MCT2 and MCT4 were highly expressed in GISTs. CD147 expression was associated with mutated KIT (p = 0.039), as well as a progressive increase in Fletcher's Risk of Malignancy (p = 0.020). Importantly, co-expression of MCT1 with CD147 was associated with low patient's overall survival (p = 0.037). These findings suggest that co-expression of MCT1 with its chaperone CD147 is involved in GISTs aggressiveness, pointing to a contribution of cancer cell metabolic adaptations in GIST development and/or progression.

De Novo Thrombotic Microangiopathy After Kidney Transplantation: Clinical Features, Treatment, and Long-Term Patient and Graft Survival

Introduction. Posttransplant thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA)/hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) can occur as a recurrent or de novo disease. Methods. A retrospective single-center observational study was applied in order to examine the incidence and outcomes of de novo TMA/HUS among transplantations performed between 2000 and 2010. Recurrent HUS or antibody-mediated rejections were excluded. Results. Seventeen (1.1%) among 1549 kidney transplant recipients fulfilled criteria for de novo TMA. The mean follow-up was 572 days (range, 69-1769). Maintenance immunosuppression was prednisone, tacrolimus (TAC), and mycophenolic acid in 14 (82%) patients. Mean age at onset was 40 +/- 15 years, and serum creatinine was 6.1 +/- 4.1 mg/dL. TMA occurred at a median of 25 days (range, 1-1755) after transplantation. Nine (53%) patients developed TMA within 1 month of transplantation and only 12% after 1 year. Clinical features were anemia (hemoglobin < 10 g/dL) in 9 (53%) patients, thrombocytopenia in 7 (41%), and increased lactate dehydrogenase in 12 (70%). Decreased haptoglobin was observed in 64% and schistocytes in 35%. Calcineurin inhibitor (CM) withdrawal or reduction was the first step in the management of 10/15 (66%) patients, and 6 (35%) received fresh frozen plasma (FFP) and/or plasmapheresis. TAC was successfully reintroduced in six patients after a median of 17 days. Eight (47%) patients needed dialytic support after TMA diagnosis and 75% remained on dialysis. At 4 years of follow-up, death-censored graft survival was worse for TMA group (43.0% versus 85.6%, log-rank = 0.001; hazard ratio = 3.74) and there was no difference in patient survival (53.1% versus 82.2%, log-rank = 0.24). Conclusion. De novo TMA after kidney transplantation is a rare but severe condition with poor graft outcomes. This syndrome may not be fully manifested, and clinical suspicion is essential for early diagnosis and treatment, based mainly in CM withdrawal and FFP infusions and/or plasmapheresis.

Risk Factor Analysis of Late Survival After Heart Transplantation According to Donor Profile: A Multi-Institutional Retrospective Study of 512 Transplants

Introduction. Patients with terminal heart failure have increased more than the available organs leading to a high mortality rate on the waiting list. Use of Marginal and expanded criteria donors has increased due to the heart shortage. Objective. We analyzed all heart transplantations (HTx) in Sao Paulo state over 8 years for donor profile and recipient risk factors. Method. This multi-institutional review collected HTx data from all institutions in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. From 2002 to 2008 (6 years), only 512 (28.8%) of 1777 available heart donors were accepted for transplantation. All medical records were analyzed retrospectively; none of the used donors was excluded, even those considered to be nonstandard. Results. The hospital mortality rate was 27.9% (n = 143) and the average follow-up time was 29.4 +/- 28.4 months. The survival rate was 55.5% (n = 285) at 6 years after HTx. Univariate analysis showed the following factors to impact survival: age (P = .0004), arterial hypertension (P = .4620), norepinephrine (P = .0450), cardiac arrest (P = .8500), diabetes mellitus (P = .5120), infection (P = .1470), CKMB (creatine kinase MB) (P = .8694), creatinine (P = .7225), and Na+ (P = .3273). On multivariate analysis, only age showed significance; logistic regression showed a significant cut-off at 40 years: organs from donors older than 40 years showed a lower late survival rates (P = .0032). Conclusions. Donor age older than 40 years represents an important risk factor for survival after HTx. Neither donor gender nor norepinephrine use negatively affected early survival.

Endurance training stimulates growth and survival pathways and the redox balance in rat pancreatic islets

Calegari VC, Abrantes JL, Silveira LR, Paula FM, Costa JM Jr, Rafacho A, Velloso LA, Carneiro EM, Bosqueiro JR, Boschero AC, Zoppi CC. Endurance training stimulates growth and survival pathways and the redox balance in rat pancreatic islets. J Appl Physiol 112: 711-718, 2012. First published December 15, 2011; doi:10.1152/japplphysiol.00318.2011.-Endurance training has been shown to increase pancreatic beta-cell function and mass. However, whether exercise modulates beta-cell growth and survival pathways signaling is not completely understood. This study investigated the effects of exercise on growth and apoptotic markers levels in rat pancreatic islets. Male Wistar rats were randomly assigned to 8-wk endurance training or to a sedentary control group. After that, pancreatic islets were isolated; gene expression and the total content and phosphorylation of several proteins related to growth and apoptotic pathways as well as the main antioxidant enzymes were determined by real-time polymerase chain reaction and Western blot analysis, respectively. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) production was measured by fluorescence. Endurance training increased the time to reach fatigue by 50%. Endurance training resulted in increased protein phosphorylation content of AKT (75%), AKT substrate (AS160; 100%), mTOR (60%), p70s6k (90%), and ERK1/2 (50%), compared with islets from control group. Catalase protein content was 50% higher, whereas ROS production was 49 and 77% lower in islets from trained rats under basal and stimulating glucose conditions, respectively. Bcl-2 mRNA and protein levels increased by 46 and 100%, respectively. Bax and cleaved caspase-3 protein contents were reduced by 25 and 50% in islets from trained rats, respectively. In conclusion, these results demonstrate that endurance training favors the beta-cell growth and survival by activating AKT and ERK1/2 pathways, enhancing antioxidant capacity, and reducing ROS production and apoptotic proteins content.

Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

Protective Effects of Human Amniotic Fluid Stem Cells in a Model of Aorta Allograft Vasculopathy in Rats

Background. Chronic allograft vasculopathy (CAV) is an important cause of graft loss. Considering the immune inflammatory events involved in the development of CAV, therapeutic approaches to target this process are of relevance. Human amniotic fluid derived stem cells (hAFSCs), a class of fetal, pluripotent stem cells with intermediate characteristics between embryonic and adult stem cells, display immunomodulatory properties. hAFSCs express mesenchymal and embryonic markers, show high proliferation rates; however, they do not induce tumor formation, and their use does not raise ethical issues. Thus, we sought to investigate the effect of hAFSC on CAV in a model of aorta transplantation. Methods. Orthotopic aorta transplantation was performed using Fisher (F344) rats as donors and Lewis rats as recipients. Rats were divided into three groups: syngeneic (SYNG), untreated F344 receiving aorta from F344 (n = 8); allogeneic (ALLO), Lewis rats receiving allogeneic aorta from F344 (n = 8); and ALLO + hAFSC, ALLO rats treated with hAFSC (10(6) cells; n = 8). Histological analysis and immunohistochemistry were performed 30 days posttransplantation. Results. The ALLO group developed a robust aortic neointimal formation (208.7 +/- 25.4 gm) accompanied by a significant high number of ED1(+) (4845 +/- 841 cells/mm(2)) and CD43(+) cells (4064 +/- 563 cells/mm(2)), and enhanced expression of a-smooth muscle actin in the neointima (25 +/- 6%). Treatment with hAFSC diminished neointimal thickness (180.7 +/- 23.7 mu m) and induced a significant decrease of ED1(+) (1100 +/- 276 cells/mm(2)), CD43(+) cells (1080 +/- 309 cells/mu m(2)), and alpha-smooth muscle actin expression 8 +/- 3% in the neointima. Conclusions. These preliminary results showed that hAFSC suppressed inflammation and myofibroblast migration to the intima, which may contribute to ameliorate vascular changes in CAV.

Accumulation of the SET protein in HEK293T cells and mild oxidative stress: cell survival or death signaling

SET protein (I2PP2A) is an inhibitor of PP2A, which regulates the phosphorylated Akt (protein kinase B) levels. We assessed the effects of SET overexpression in HEK293T cells, both in the presence and the absence of mild oxidative stress induced by 50 mu M tert-butyl hydroperoxide. Immunoblotting assays demonstrated that SET accumulated in HEK293T cells and increased the levels of phosphorylated Akt and PTEN; in addition, SET decreased glutathione antioxidant defense of cell and increased expression of genes encoding antioxidant defense proteins. Immunofluorescence analysis demonstrated that accumulated SET was equally distributed in cytoplasm and nucleus; however, in cells that had been exposed to oxidative stress, SET was found in large aggregates in the cytoplasm. SET accumulation in HEK293T cells correlated with inhibition of basal apoptosis as evidenced by a decrease in annexin V staining and activity of caspases; under mild oxidative stress, SET accumulation correlated with caspase-independent cell death, as evidenced by increased PI and annexin V/PI double staining. The results suggest that accumulated SET could act via Akt/PTEN either as cell survival signal or as oxidative stress sensor for cell death.

Survival, Causes of Death, and Prognostic Factors in Systemic Sclerosis: Analysis of 947 Brazilian Patients

Objective. To analyze survival, prognostic factors, and causes of death in a large cohort of patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). Methods. From 1991 to 2010, 947 patients with SSc were treated at 2 referral university centers in Brazil. Causes of death were considered SSc-related and non-SSc-related. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify prognostic factors. Survival at 5 and 10 years was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results. One hundred sixty-eight patients died during the followup. Among the 110 deaths considered related to SSc, there was predominance of lung (48.1%) and heart (24.5%) involvement. Most of the 58 deaths not related to SSc were caused by infection, cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease, and cancer. Male sex, modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) > 20, osteoarticular involvement, lung involvement, and renal crisis were the main prognostic factors associated to death. Overall survival rate was 90% for 5 years and 84% for 10 years. Patients presented worse prognosis if they had diffuse SSc (85% vs 92% at 5 yrs, respectively, and 77% vs 87% at 10 yrs, compared to limited SSc), male sex (77% vs 90% at 5 yrs and 64% vs 86% at 10 yrs, compared to female sex), and mRSS > 20 (83% vs 90% at 5 yrs and 66% vs 86% at 10 yrs, compared to mRSS <20). Conclusion. Survival was worse in male patients with diffuse SSc, and lung and heart involvement represented the main causes of death in this South American series of patients with SSc. (First Release Aug 15 2012; J Rheumatol 2012;39:1971-8; doi:10.3899/jrheum.111582)