A streamlined life-cycle assessment and decision tool for used tyres recycling

In order to achieve progress towards sustainable resource management, it is essential to evaluate options for the reuse and recycling of secondary raw materials, in order to provide a robust evidence base for decision makers. This paper presents the research undertaken in the development of a web-based decision-support tool (the used tyres resource efficiency tool) to compare three processing routes for used tyres compared to their existing primary alternatives. Primary data on the energy and material flows for the three routes, and their alternatives were collected and analysed. The methodology used was a streamlined life-cycle assessment (sLCA) approach. Processes included were: car tyre baling against aggregate gabions; car tyre retreading against new car tyres; and car tyre shred used in landfill engineering against primary aggregates. The outputs of the assessment, and web-based tool, were estimates of raw materials used, carbon dioxide emissions and costs. The paper discusses the benefits of carrying out a streamlined LCA and using the outputs of this analysis to develop a decision-support tool. The strengths and weakness of this approach are discussed and future research priorities identified which could facilitate the use of life cycle approaches by designers and practitioners.

Information aggregation and belief elicitation in experimental parimutuel betting markets

This paper studies the impact of belief elicitation on informational efficiency and individual behavior in experimental parimutuel betting markets. In one treatment, groups of eight participants, who possess a private signal about the eventual outcome, play a sequential betting game. The second treatment is identical, except that bettors are observed by eight other participants who submit incentivized beliefs about the winning probabilities of each outcome. In the third treatment, the same individuals make bets and assess the winning probabilities of the outcomes. Market probabilities more accurately reflect objective probabilities in the third than in the other two treatments. Submitting beliefs reduces the favorite-longshot bias and making bets improves the accuracy of elicited beliefs. A level-k framework provides some insights about why belief elicitation improves the capacity of betting markets to aggregate information. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Individual and couple decision behavior under risk: evidence on the dynamics of power balance

This article reports results of an experiment designed to analyze the link between risky decisions made by couples and risky decisions made separately by each spouse. We estimate both the spouses and the couples' degrees of risk aversion, we assess how the risk preferences of the two spouses aggregate when they make risky decisions, and we shed light on the dynamics of the decision process that takes place when couples make risky decisions. We find that, far from being fixed, the balance of power within the household is malleable. In most couples, men have, initially, more decision-making power than women but women who ultimately implement the joint decisions gain more and more power over the course of decision making.

Freshwater pearl mussels show plasticity of responses to different predation risks but also show consistent individual differences in responsiveness

Animals often show behavioural plasticity with respect to predation risk but also show behavioural syndromes in terms of consistency of responses to different stimuli. We examine these features in the freshwater pearl mussel. These bivalves often aggregate presumably to reduce predation risk to each individual. Predation risk, however, will be higher in the presence of predator cues. Here we use dimming light, vibration and touch as novel stimuli to examine the trade-off between motivation to feed and motivation to avoid predation. We present two experiments that each use three sequential novel stimuli to cause the mussels to close their valves and hence cease feeding. We find that mussels within a group showed shorter closure times than solitary mussels, consistent with decreased vulnerability to predation in group-living individuals. Mussels exposed to the odour of a predatory crayfish showed longer closures than control mussels, highlighting the predator assessment abilities of this species. However, individuals showed significant consistency in their closure responses across the trial series, in line with behavioural syndrome theory. Our results show that bivalves trade-off feeding and predator avoidance according to predation risk but the degree to which this is achieved is constrained by behavioural consistency. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Direct, positive feedbacks produce instability in models of interrelationships among soil structure, plants and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi

Current conceptual models of reciprocal interactions linking soil structure, plants and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi emphasise positive feedbacks among the components of the system. However, dynamical systems with high dimensionality and several positive feedbacks (i.e. mutualism) are prone to instability. Further, organisms such as arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are obligate biotrophs of plants and are considered major biological agents in soil aggregate stabilization. With these considerations in mind, we developed dynamical models of soil ecosystems that reflect the main features of current conceptual models and empirical data, especially positive feedbacks and linear interactions among plants, AMF and the component of soil structure dependent on aggregates. We found that systems become increasingly unstable the more positive effects with Type I functional response (i.e., the growth rate of a mutualist is modified by the density of its partner through linear proportionality) are added to the model, to the point that increasing the realism of models by adding linear effects produces the most unstable systems. The present theoretical analysis thus offers a framework for modelling and suggests new directions for experimental studies on the interrelationship between soil structure, plants and AMF. Non-linearity in functional responses, spatial and temporal heterogeneity, and indirect effects can be invoked on a theoretical basis and experimentally tested in laboratory and field experiments in order to account for and buffer the local instability of the simplest of current scenarios. This first model presented here may generate interest in more explicitly representing the role of biota in soil physical structure, a phenomenon that is typically viewed in a more process- and management-focused context. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Are power laws that estimate fractal dimension a good descriptor of soil structure and its link to soil biological properties?

The study of interrelationships between soil structure and its functional properties is complicated by the fact that the quantitative description of soil structure is challenging. Soil scientists have tackled this challenge by taking advantage of approaches such as fractal geometry, which describes soil architectural complexity through a scaling exponent (D) relating mass and numbers of particles/aggregates to particle/aggregate size. Typically, soil biologists use empirical indices such as mean weight diameters (MWD) and percent of water stable aggregates (WSA), or the entire size distribution, and they have successfully related these indices to key soil features such as C and N dynamics and biological promoters of soil structure. Here, we focused on D, WSA and MWD and we tested whether: D estimated by the exponent of the power law of number-size distributions is a good and consistent correlate of MWD and WSA; D carries information that differs from MWD and WSA; the fraction of variation in D that is uncorrelated with MWD and WSA is related to soil chemical and biological properties that are thought to establish interdependence with soil structure (e.g., organic C, N, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi). We analysed observational data from a broad scale field study and results from a greenhouse experiment where arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) and collembola altered soil structure. We were able to develop empirical models that account for a highly significant and large portion of the correlation observed between WSA and MWD but we did not uncover the mechanisms that underlie this correlation. We conclude that most of the covariance between D and soil biotic (AMF, plant roots) and abiotic (C. N) properties can be accounted for by WSA and MWD. This result implies that the ecological effects of the fragmentation properties described by D and generally discussed under the framework of fractal models can be interpreted under the intuitive perspective of simpler indices and we suggest that the biotic components mostly impacted the largest size fractions, which dominate MWD, WSA and the scaling exponent ruling number-size distributions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maximum Outage Capacity in Dense Indoor Femtocell Networks with Joint Energy and Spectrum Utilization

We consider a multiple femtocell deployment in a small area which shares spectrum with the underlaid macrocell. We design a joint energy and radio spectrum scheme which aims not only for co-existence with the macrocell, but also for an energy-efficient implementation of the multi-femtocells. Particularly, aggregate energy usage on dense femtocell channels is formulated taking into account the cost of both the spectrum and energy usage. We investigate an energy-and-spectral efficient approach to balance between the two costs by varying the number of active sub-channels and their energy. The proposed scheme is addressed by deriving closed-form expressions for the interference towards the macrocell and the outage capacity. Analytically, discrete regions under which the most promising outage capacity is achieved by the same size of active sub-channels are introduced. Through a joint optimization of the sub-channels and their energy, properties can be found for the maximum outage capacity under realistic constraints. Using asymptotic and numerical analysis, it can be noticed that in a dense femtocell deployment, the optimum utilization of the energy and the spectrum to maximize the outage capacity converges towards a round-robin scheduling approach for a very small outage threshold. This is the inverse of the traditional greedy approach. © 2012 IEEE.

In silico prediction of the effects of mutations in the human UDP-galactose 4'-epimerase gene:Towards a predictive framework for type III galactosemia

The enzyme UDP-galactose 4'-epimerase (GALE) catalyses the reversible epimerisation of both UDP-galactose and UDP-N-acetyl-galactosamine. Deficiency of the human enzyme (hGALE) is associated with type III galactosemia. The majority of known mutations in hGALE are missense and private thus making clinical guidance difficult. In this study a bioinformatics approach was employed to analyse the structural effects due to each mutation using both the UDP-glucose and UDP-N-acetylglucosamine bound structures of the wild-type protein. Changes to the enzyme's overall stability, substrate/cofactor binding and propensity to aggregate were also predicted. These predictions were found to be in good agreement with previous in vitro and in vivo studies when data was available and allowed for the differentiation of those mutants that severely impair the enzyme's activity against UDP-galactose. Next this combination of techniques were applied to another twenty-six reported variants from the NCBI dbSNP database that have yet to be studied to predict their effects. This identified p.I14T, p.R184H and p.G302R as likely severely impairing mutations. Although severely impaired mutants were predicted to decrease the protein's stability, overall predicted stability changes only weakly correlated with residual activity against UDP-galactose. This suggests other protein functions such as changes in cofactor and substrate binding may also contribute to the mechanism of impairment. Finally this investigation shows that this combination of different in silico approaches is useful in predicting the effects of mutations and that it could be the basis of an initial prediction of likely clinical severity when new hGALE mutants are discovered.

Molecular Validation of the Schizophrenia Spectrum

Background: Early descriptive work and controlled family and adoption studies support the hypothesis that a range of personality and nonschizophrenic psychotic disorders aggregate in families of schizophrenic probands. Can we validate, using molecular polygene scores from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), this schizophrenia spectrum? Methods: The predictive value of polygenic findings reported by the Psychiatric GWAS Consortium (PGC) was applied to 4 groups of relatives from the Irish Study of High-Density Schizophrenia Families (ISHDSF; N = s) differing on their assignment within the schizophrenia spectrum. Genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism data for affected and unaffected relatives were used to construct per-individual polygene risk scores based on the PGC stage-I results. We compared mean polygene scores in the ISHDSF with mean scores in ethnically matched population controls (N = 929). Results: The schizophrenia polygene score differed significantly across diagnostic categories and was highest in those with narrow schizophrenia spectrum, lowest in those with no psychiatric illness, and in-between in those classified in the intermediate, broad, and very broad schizophrenia spectrum. Relatives of all of these groups of affected subjects, including those with no diagnosis, had schizophrenia polygene scores significantly higher than the control sample. Conclusions: In the relatives of high-density families, the observed pattern of enrichment of molecular indices of schizophrenia risk suggests an underlying, continuous liability distribution and validates, using aggregate common risk alleles, a genetic basis for the schizophrenia spectrum disorders. In addition, as predicted by genetic theory, nonpsychotic members of multiply-affected schizophrenia families are significantly enriched for replicated, polygenic risk variants compared with the general population.

Life Cycle Assessment guidelines for the sustainable production and recycling of aggregates:The Sustainable Aggregates Resource Management project (SARMa)

The mining/quarrying industry is a sector of industry where there are very few Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) tools, and where the role of LCA has been poorly investigated. A key issue is the integration of three inter-dependent life cycles: Project, Asset and Product. Given the unique features of mining LCAs, this Note from the Field presents a common methodology implemented within the Sustainable Aggregates Resource Management (SARMa) Project (www.sarmaproject.eu) in order to boost adoption of LCA in the aggregate industry in South Eastern Europe. The proposed methodology emphasises the importance of resource efficiency and recycling in the context of a Sustainable Supply Mix of aggregates for the construction industry. Through its adoption, aggregate producers, recyclers, and governmental planners would gain confidence with LCA tools and conduct consistent and meaningful life cycle analyses of natural and recycled aggregates. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transient Polymorphism in NaCl

We introduce a new, collective variable (CV) that can be used to increase the frequency with which nucleation events are observed in biased atomistic simulations. This CV forces the ions to aggregate into clusters but does not force the ions to order themselves in a particular pattern. We perform metadynamics simulations using this CV in order to examine nucleation in a solution of sodium chloride and find that for small cluster sizes the usual bulk rocksalt structure is less stable than a structure that resembles wurtzite.

New Views on Effect of Recycled Aggregates on Concrete Compressive Strength

This paper presents an in-depth study on the effect that composition and properties of recycled coarse aggregates from previous concrete structures, together with water/cement ratio (w/c) and a replacement ratio of coarse aggregate, have on compressive strength, its evolution through time, and its variability. A rigorous approach through statistical inference based on multiple linear regression has identified the key factors. A predictive equation is given for compressive strength when recycled coarse aggregates are used. The w/c and replacement ratio are the capital factors affecting concrete compressive strength. Their effect is significantly modified by the properties and composition of the recycled aggregates used. An equation that accurately predicts concrete compressive strength in terms of these parameters is presented. Particular attention has been paid to the complex effect that old concrete and adhered mortar have on concrete compressive strength and its mid-term evolution. It has been confirmed that the presence of contaminants tends to increase variability of compressive strength values.

Assessing the distribution of social-ecological resilience and risk: Ireland as a case study of the uneven impact of famine

Explanations for the causes of famine and food insecurity often reside at a high level of aggregation or abstraction. Popular models within famine studies have often emphasised the role of prime movers such as population stress, or the political-economic structure of access channels, as key determinants of food security. Explanation typically resides at the macro level, obscuring the presence of substantial within-country differences in the manner in which such stressors operate. This study offers an alternative approach to analyse the uneven nature of food security, drawing on the Great Irish famine of 1845–1852. Ireland is often viewed as a classical case of Malthusian stress, whereby population outstripped food supply under a pre-famine demographic regime of expanded fertility. Many have also pointed to Ireland's integration with capitalist markets through its colonial relationship with the British state, and country-wide system of landlordism, as key determinants of local agricultural activity. Such models are misguided, ignoring both substantial complexities in regional demography, and the continuity of non-capitalistic, communal modes of land management long into the nineteenth century. Drawing on resilience ecology and complexity theory, this paper subjects a set of aggregate data on pre-famine Ireland to an optimisation clustering procedure, in order to discern the potential presence of distinctive social–ecological regimes. Based on measures of demography, social structure, geography, and land tenure, this typology reveals substantial internal variation in regional social–ecological structure, and vastly differing levels of distress during the peak famine months. This exercise calls into question the validity of accounts which emphasise uniformity of structure, by revealing a variety of regional regimes, which profoundly mediated local conditions of food security. Future research should therefore consider the potential presence of internal variations in resilience and risk exposure, rather than seeking to characterise cases based on singular macro-dynamics and stressors alone.

Is Mortality Spatial or Social?

Mortality modelling for the purposes of demographic forecasting and actuarial pricing is generally done at an aggregate level using national data. Modelling at this level fails to capture the variation in mortality within country and potentially leads to a mis-specification of mortality forecasts for a subset of the population. This can have detrimental effects for pricing and reserving in the actuarial context. In this paper we consider mortality rates at a regional level and analyse the variation in those rates. We consider whether variation in mortality rates within a country can be explained using local economic and social variables. Using Northern Ireland data on mortality and measures of deprivation we identify the variables explaining mortality variation. We create a population polarisation variable and find that this variable is significant in explaining some of the variation in mortality rates. Further, we consider whether spatial and non-spatial models have a part to play in explaining mortality differentials.

Opportunistic spectrum aggregation for cognitive communications under collision constraints

We consider a collision-sensitive secondary system that intends to opportunistically aggregate and utilize spectrum of a primary system to achieve higher data rates. In such opportunistic spectrum access, secondary transmission can collide with primary transmission. When the secondary system aggregates more channels for data transmission, more frequent collisions may occur, limiting the performance obtained by the opportunistic spectrum aggregation. In this context, dynamic spectrum aggregation problem is formulated to maximize the ergodic channel capacity under the constraint of collision tolerable level. To solve the problem, we develop the optimal spectrum aggregation approach, deriving closed-form expressions for the collision probability in terms of primary user traffic load, secondary user transmission interval, and the random number of sub-channels aggregated. Our results show that aggregating only a subset of sub-channels will be a better choice, depending on the ratio of collision sensitivity requirement to the primary user traffic.