The Jama legal narrative. Part II: A foray into concepts of improbability

In judicial decision making, the doctrine of chances takes explicitly into account the odds. There is more to forensic statistics, as well as various probabilistic approaches which taken together form the object of an enduring controversy in the scholarship of legal evidence. In this paper, we reconsider the circumstances of the Jama murder and inquiry (dealt with in Part I of this paper: "The Jama Model. On Legal Narratives and Interpretation Patterns"), to illustrate yet another kind of probability or improbability. What is improbable about the Jama story, is actually a given, which contributes in terms of dramatic underlining. In literary theory, concepts of narratives being probable or improbable date back from the eighteenth century, when both prescientific and scientific probability was infiltrating several domains, including law. An understanding of such a backdrop throughout the history of ideas is, I claim, necessary for AI researchers who may be tempted to apply statistical methods to legal evidence. The debate for or against probability (and especially bayesian probability) in accounts of evidence has been flouishing among legal scholars. Nowadays both the the Bayesians (e.g. Peter Tillers) and Bayesioskeptics (e.g. Ron Allen) among those legal scholars whoare involved in the controversy are willing to give AI researchers a chance to prove itself and strive towards models of plausibility that would go beyond probability as narrowly meant. This debate within law, in turn, has illustrious precedents: take Voltaire, he was critical of the application or probability even to litigation in civil cases; take Boole, he was a starry-eyed believer in probability applications to judicial decision making (Rosoni 1995). Not unlike Boole, the founding father of computing, nowadays computer scientists approaching the field may happen to do so without full awareness of the pitfalls. Hence, the usefulness of the conceptual landscape I sketch here.

The Jama legal narrative part II: A foray into concepts of improbability

In judicial decision making, the doctrine of chances takes explicitly into account the odds. There is more to forensic statistics, as well as various probabilistic approaches, which taken together form the object of an enduring controversy in the scholarship of legal evidence. In this paper, I reconsider the circumstances of the Jama murder and inquiry (dealt with in Part I of this paper: 'The JAMA Model and Narrative Interpretation Patterns'), to illustrate yet another kind of probability or improbability. What is improbable about the Jama story is actually a given, which contributes in terms of dramatic underlining. In literary theory, concepts of narratives being probable or improbable date back from the eighteenth century, when both prescientific and scientific probability were infiltrating several domains, including law. An understanding of such a backdrop throughout the history of ideas is, I claim, necessary for Artificial Intelligence (AI) researchers who may be tempted to apply statistical methods to legal evidence. The debate for or against probability (and especially Bayesian probability) in accounts of evidence has been flourishing among legal scholars; nowadays both the Bayesians (e.g. Peter Tillers) and the Bayesio-skeptics (e.g. Ron Allen), among those legal scholars who are involved in the controversy, are willing to give AI research a chance to prove itself and strive towards models of plausibility that would go beyond probability as narrowly meant. This debate within law, in turn, has illustrious precedents: take Voltaire, he was critical of the application of probability even to litigation in civil cases; take Boole, he was a starry-eyed believer in probability applications to judicial decision making. Not unlike Boole, the founding father of computing, nowadays computer scientists approaching the field may happen to do so without full awareness of the pitfalls. Hence, the usefulness of the conceptual landscape I sketch here.

Domain decomposition methods for welding problems

This paper, a 2-D non-linear electric arc-welding problem is considered. It is assumed that the moving arc generates an unknown quantity of energy which makes the problem an inverse problem with an unknown source. Robust algorithms to solve such problems e#ciently, and in certain circumstances in real-time, are of great technological and industrial interest. There are other types of inverse problems which involve inverse determination of heat conductivity or material properties [CDJ63][TE98], inverse problems in material cutting [ILPP98], and retrieval of parameters containing discontinuities [IK90]. As in the metal cutting problem, the temperature of a very hot surface is required and it relies on the use of thermocouples. Here, the solution scheme requires temperature measurements lied in the neighbourhood of the weld line in order to retrieve the unknown heat source. The size of this neighbourhood is not considered in this paper, but rather a domain decomposition concept is presented and an examination of the accuracy of the retrieved source are presented. This paper is organised as follows. The inverse problem is formulated and a method for the source retrieval is presented in the second section. The source retrieval method is based on an extension of the 1-D source retrieval method as proposed in [ILP].

The introduction of social adaptation within evacuation modelling

In recent history, a number of tragic events have borne a consistent message; the social structures that existed prior to and during the evacuation significantly affected the decisions made and the actions adopted by the evacuating population in response to the emergency. This type of influence over behaviour has long been neglected in the modelling community. This paper is an attempt to introduce some of these considerations into evacuation models and to demonstrate their impact. To represent this type of behaviour within evacuation models a mechanism to represent the membership and position within social hierarchies is established. In addition, individuals within the social groupings are given the capacity to communicate relevant pieces of data such as the need to evacuate—impacting the response time—and the location of viable exits—impacting route selection. Furthermore, the perception and response to this information is also affected by the social circumstances in which individuals find themselves. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Joint ownership and beneficial entitlement: Stack v Dowden.

Explores the issue of the share of beneficial entitlement to the family home where the legal title is jointly owned, but where there has not been an express declaration of a beneficial joint tenancy. Discusses the House of Lords judgment in Stack v Dowden which addressed this point. Explains how the judges moved the focus away from the court imposing its own sense of fairness on the parties or imputing an intention based on the circumstances to one where the concentration will be on the parties' relevant conduct. Outlines three other points of interest referred to in the judgment: (1) whether an indirect financial contribution could support a constructive trust; (2) whether proprietary estoppel and common intention constructive trusts should be assimilated; and (3) whether a mortgage liability is equivalent to a financial contribution.

Patch me if you can

Considers the circumstances in which repair works may be more appropriate than replacement where a landlord is attempting to claim under a repair covenant. Examines case law on which method is more appropriate and on the standard of remedial work to be undertaken. Reflects on the situation where performance of remedial works would be futile. Comments on the Technology and Construction Court ruling in Carmel Southend Ltd v Strachan & Henshaw Ltd on whether a landlord had been correct to carry out overcladding works to a roof where surveyors had agreed that patch repairs would be adequate.

Termination of tenancies for tenant default: Law Commission's draft Bill

Reviews key proposals of a draft Bill set out in Command Paper: The Law Commission: Termination of Tenancies for Tenant Default (Cm.6946), aimed at replacing the existing law on forfeiture of tenancies. Summarises the main elements of the proposed termination action by landlords, the events justifying such an action, the time limits for serving default notices, the revised range of court orders available and the considerations influencing which type of order to make. Examines the position of qualifying interest holders and the circumstances in which summary termination notices are prohibited.

Constructive thinking

Discusses the House of Lords ruling in Cobbe v Yeoman's Row Management Ltd on whether the doctrine of constructive trust, as an alternative to proprietary estoppel, could be invoked by a property developer under the Law of Property (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 1989 s.2(5) where an agreement for the acquisition of an interest in land failed to comply with s.2(1), but where the developer had incurred expenditure obtaining planning permission to develop the property. Reflects on whether there are circumstances in which the courts will find a constructive trust in order to avoid the effects of s.2(1).

Return of deposits

Explores case law illustrating the circumstances in which the courts are likely to order the return of a deposit in the event of a buyer's default. Notes the unwillingness of the courts to apply the rule on penalties to deposits and discusses the court's discretion under the Law of Property Act 1925 s.49(2) to order repayment. Focuses on the Chancery Division ruling in Aribisala v St James Homes (Grosvenor Dock) Ltd giving guidance on the circumstances in which the discretion under s.49(2) should be exercised.

Returning to deposits...

Examines the Court of Appeal ruling in Midill (97PL) Ltd v Park Lane Estates Ltd on whether the court should exercise its discretion to return a deposit paid under a contract for the sale of a property where, despite the claimant having defaulted on its purchase, the owner obtained a higher price than would have been paid by the claimant when it subsequently sold the property to a third party. Considers the need for special or exceptional circumstances to be present to override the rule that deposits were to be forfeited upon the purchaser's default.

Insolvency: ordering a sale of the family home

Comments on the Chancery Division ruling in Nicholls v Lan on whether the interests of a bankrupt husband's creditors prevailed over those of the wife, despite her circumstances being exceptional within the meaning of the Insolvency Act 1986 s.335A on account of her suffering from chronic schizophrenia, where the wife was the joint owner of another property which could be realised to buy out the trustee in bankruptcy's half share in the equity of the matrimonial home.

Divorce deals and bankruptcy

Discusses the rights and responsibilities of trustees and beneficiaries of co-owned land under the Trusts of Land and Appointment of Trustees Act 1996, in particular s.14 which allows the court to make an order declaring the extent and nature of a person's interest in the property. Refers to the Court of Appeal decision in Avis v Turner on whether the existence of an earlier court order postponing the sale of matrimonial property following the owners' divorce meant that an application could not be brought by a trustee in bankruptcy under s.14. Considers the "exceptional circumstances" which could allow the court to postpone the sale. [From Legal Journals Index]

What's exceptional?

Outlines the factors which the court needs to consider when deciding whether to grant an application for the sale of a property where the owner becomes bankrupt. Considers the different priorities to be given to the claims of trustees in bankruptcy and to secure lenders, with reference to the Trusts of Land and Appointment of Trustees Act 1996 ss.14 and 15, the Insolvency Act 1986 s.355A, and the exceptional circumstances in which claims will not be granted. Explores case law, in particular the Court of Appeal ruling in Avis v Turner, and the implications of the Human Rights Act 1998. [From Legal Journals Index]

Constructive notice and independent legal advice: a study of lending institution practice

Cases on when lending institutions will be put on inquiry as to circumstances giving rise to presumption of undue influence, and results of research on lending practice of residential mortgage lenders in light of case law. [From Legal Journals Index]

Sustainable Olympic design and urban development

With appropriate planning and design, Olympic urban development has the potential to leave positive environmental legacies to the host city and contribute to environmental sustainability. This book explains how a modern Olympic games can successfully develop a more sustainable design approach by learning from the lessons of the past and by taking account of the latest developments. It offers an assessment tool that can be tailored to individual circumstances – a tool which emerges from the analysis of previous summer games host cities and from techniques in environmental analysis and assessment.