Polarity chron boundaries and foraminiferal 87Sr/86Sr ratios of ODP Sites 162-986 and 162-987

Cores recovered at Sites 986 and 987 comprise glacial fan sedimentation associated with the Svalbard-Barents Sea and Greenland Ice Sheets, respectively. At Site 986, the top 150 m and the basal 250 m yielded interpretable magnetic stratigraphies. The record from the intervening 550 m is compromised by drilling-related core deformation, poor recovery, and numerous debris flows. The uppermost 150 m appears to record the Brunhes/Matuyama boundary and the Jaramillo Subchron. The base of the drilled section (at ~950 meters below seafloor [mbsf]) is interpreted to lie within the Matuyama Chron (age <2.58 Ma) with an apparent normal polarity interval in the ~730-750 mbsf interval. Dinoflagellate cyst biostratigraphy and Sr isotopic ratios are consistent with a Matuyama age for the base of the drilled section and with the normal polarity interval as the Olduvai Subchron. On the other hand, the last occurrence of Neogloboquadrina atlantica (sinistral) and the last common occurrence of the warm-dwelling Globigerina bulloides at 647-650 mbsf in Hole 986D indicate an age for this level of ~2.3 Ma, inconsistent with the designation of the Olduvai Subchron in the ~730-750 mbsf interval. If the age at 647-650 mbsf in Hole 986D is taken as 2.3 Ma and the base of the hole lies within the Matuyama Chron, then the sedimentation rate in the basal 300 m of the cored section averages 1 m/k.y. At Site 987, the magnetic stratigraphy is fairly unambiguous throughout the section and yields an age of 7.5 Ma (Chron 4n) for the base of the drilled section. The paucity of calcareous and siliceous microfossils precludes biostratigraphic corroboration of the magnetostratigraphic interpretation, although dinoflagellate cysts provide general support, particularly at the base of the section. The age model indicates relatively low sedimentation rates (~5 cm/k.y.) at the base of the section with rates at least four to five times greater during intervals of debris flows at ~5-4.6 and ~2.6 Ma.

Geographic distribution of dinoflagellate cysts in surface sediments

Dinoflagellate cysts are useful for reconstructing upper water conditions. For adequate reconstructions detailed information is required about the relationship between modern day environmental conditions and the geographic distribution of cysts in sediments. This Atlas summarises the modern global distribution of 71 organicwalled dinoflagellate cyst species. The synthesis is based on the integration of literature sources together with data of 2405 globally distributed surface sediment samples that have been preparedwith a comparable methodology and taxonomy. The distribution patterns of individual cyst species are being comparedwith environmental factors that are knownto influence dinoflagellate growth, gamete production, encystment, excystment and preservation of their organic-walled cysts: surface water temperature, salinity, nitrate, phosphate, chlorophyll-a concentrations and bottom water oxygen concentrations. Graphs are provided for every species depicting the relationship between seasonal and annual variations of these parameters and the relative abundance of the species. Results have been compared with previously published records; an overview of the ecological significance as well as information about the seasonal production of each individual species is presented. The relationship between the cyst distribution and variation in the aforementioned environmental parameters was analysed by performing a canonical correspondence analysis. All tested variables showed a positive relationship on the 99% confidence level. Sea-surface temperature represents the parameter corresponding to the largest amount of variance within the dataset (40%) followed by nitrate, salinity, phosphate and bottom-water oxygen concentration, which correspond to 34%, 33%, 25% and 24% of the variance, respectively. Characterisations of selected environments as well as a discussion about how these factors could have influenced the final cyst yield in sediments are included.

Hormone replacement therapy and everyday memory in mid-aged New Zealand women

While empirical research to date has generally supported positive effects of estrogen on verbal memory performance in women, the literature examining specific effects of Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) on cognitive functioning in mid-life women is more equivocal. The Rivermead Behavioural Memory Test-Extended Version (RBMT-E), a measure of everyday memory functioning in adults within an average range of cognitive functioning, was administered to a sample of 104 New Zealand women aged 40 to 60 years who had self-selected to either use or not use HRT (53 HRT users and 51 non-users). Self-report. measures of mood, stress, general health and menopausal symptoms were also administered. These variables, along with age and education level, were used in analyses of group differences on the everyday memory measures. Results showed significant differences between the groups for three sub-tests of the RBMT-E:'Story Immediate', 'Story Delayed', and 'Message Delayed'. Women who use HRT scored higher on these subtests than those who do not use HRT. After calculation of a total profile score (adjusting for age and IQ), HRT users score higher than HRT non-users on the RBMT-E overall measure of Everyday Memory. These pilot results suggest that HRT use in this sample-is related to enhanced verbal memory in everyday memory tasks and that the RBMT-E may be a useful tool for further work in this area of research.

Distribution of major health risks: findings from the global burden of disease study

Background Most analyses of risks to health focus on the total burden of their aggregate effects. The distribution of risk-factor-attributable disease burden, for example by age or exposure level, can inform the selection and targeting of specific interventions and programs, and increase cost-effectiveness. Methods and Findings For 26 selected risk factors, expert working groups conducted comprehensive reviews of data on risk-factor exposure and hazard for 14 epidemiological subregions of the world, by age and sex. Age-sex-subregion-population attributable fractions were estimated and applied to the mortality and burden of disease estimates from the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease database. Where possible, exposure levels were assessed as continuous measures, or as multiple categories. The proportion of risk-factor-attributable burden in different population subgroups, defined by age, sex, and exposure level, was estimated. For major cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, cholesterol, tobacco use, fruit and vegetable intake, body mass index, and physical inactivity) 43%-61% of attributable disease burden occurred between the ages of 15 and 59 y, and 87% of alcohol-attributable burden occurred in this age group. Most of the disease burden for continuous risks occurred in those with only moderately raised levels, not among those with levels above commonly used cut-points, such as those with hypertension or obesity. Of all disease burden attributable to being underweight during childhood, 55% occurred among children 1-3 standard deviations below the reference population median, and the remainder occurred among severely malnourished children, who were three or more standard deviations below median. Conclusions Many major global risks are widely spread in a population, rather than restricted to a minority. Population-based strategies that seek to shift the whole distribution of risk factors often have the potential to produce substantial reductions in disease burden.

Application of central composite rotatable design to modelling the effect of some operating variables on the performance of the three-product cyclone

The central composite rotatable design (CCRD) was used to design an experimental program to model the effects of inlet pressure, feed density, and length and diameter of the inner vortex finder on the operational performance of a 150-min three-product cyclone. The ranges of values of the variables used in the design were: inlet pressure: 80-130 kPa, feed density: 30 60%; length of IVF below the OVF: 50-585 mm; diameter of IVF: 35-50 mm. A total of 30 tests were conducted, which is 51 less; an that required for a three-level full factorial design. Because the model allows confident performance prediction by interpolation over the range of data in the database, it was used to construct response surface graphs to describe the effects of the variables on the performance of the three-product cyclone. To obtain a simple and yet a realistic model, it was refitted using only the variable terms that are significant at greater than or equal to 90% confidence level. Considering the selected operating variables, the resultant model is significant and predicts the experimental data well. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of rock properties on specific cutting energy in linear cutting of sandstones by picks

Specific cutting energy (SE) has been widely used to assess the rock cuttability for mechanical excavation purposes. Some prediction models were developed for SE through correlating rock properties with SE values. However, some of the textural and compositional rock parameters i.e. texture coefficient and feldspar, mafic, and felsic mineral contents were not considered. The present study is to investigate the effects of previously ignored rock parameters along with engineering rock properties on SE. Mineralogical and petrographic analyses, rock mechanics, and linear rock cutting tests were performed on sandstone samples taken from sites around Ankara, Turkey. Relationships between SE and rock properties were evaluated using bivariate correlation and linear regression analyses. The tests and subsequent analyses revealed that the texture coefficient and feldspar content of sandstones affected rock cuttability, evidenced by significant correlations between these parameters and SE at a 90% confidence level. Felsic and mafic mineral contents of sandstones did not exhibit any statistically significant correlation against SE. Cementation coefficient, effective porosity, and pore volume had good correlations against SE. Poisson's ratio, Brazilian tensile strength, Shore scleroscope hardness, Schmidt hammer hardness, dry density, and point load strength index showed very strong linear correlations against SE at confidence levels of 95% and above, all of which were also found suitable to be used in predicting SE individually, depending on the results of regression analysis, ANOVA, Student's t-tests, and R2 values. Poisson's ratio exhibited the highest correlation with SE and seemed to be the most reliable SE prediction tool in sandstones.

Electricity market price spike forecast with data mining techniques

Electricity market price forecast is a changeling yet very important task for electricity market managers and participants. Due to the complexity and uncertainties in the power grid, electricity prices are highly volatile and normally carry with spikes. which may be (ens or even hundreds of times higher than the normal price. Such electricity spikes are very difficult to be predicted. So far. most of the research on electricity price forecast is based on the normal range electricity prices. This paper proposes a data mining based electricity price forecast framework, which can predict the normal price as well as the price spikes. The normal price can be, predicted by a previously proposed wavelet and neural network based forecast model, while the spikes are forecasted based on a data mining approach. This paper focuses on the spike prediction and explores the reasons for price spikes based on the measurement of a proposed composite supply-demand balance index (SDI) and relative demand index (RDI). These indices are able to reflect the relationship among electricity demand, electricity supply and electricity reserve capacity. The proposed model is based on a mining database including market clearing price, trading hour. electricity), demand, electricity supply and reserve. Bayesian classification and similarity searching techniques are used to mine the database to find out the internal relationships between electricity price spikes and these proposed. The mining results are used to form the price spike forecast model. This proposed model is able to generate forecasted price spike, level of spike and associated forecast confidence level. The model is tested with the Queensland electricity market data with promising results. Crown Copyright (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of rock properties on specific cutting energy in linear cutting of sandstones by picks

Specific cutting energy (SE) has been widely used to assess the rock cuttability for mechanical excavation purposes. Some prediction models were developed for SE through correlating rock properties with SE values. However, some of the textural and compositional rock parameters i.e. texture coefficient and feldspar, mafic, and felsic mineral contents were not considered. The present study is to investigate the effects of previously ignored rock parameters along with engineering rock properties on SE. Mineralogical and petrographic analyses, rock mechanics, and linear rock cutting tests were performed on sandstone samples taken from sites around Ankara, Turkey. Relationships between SE and rock properties were evaluated using bivariate correlation and linear regression analyses. The tests and subsequent analyses revealed that the texture coefficient and feldspar content of sandstones affected rock cuttability, evidenced by significant correlations between these parameters and SE at a 90% confidence level. Felsic and mafic mineral contents of sandstones did not exhibit any statistically significant correlation against SE. Cementation coefficient, effective porosity, and pore volume had good correlations against SE. Poisson's ratio, Brazilian tensile strength, Shore scleroscope hardness, Schmidt hammer hardness, dry density, and point load strength index showed very strong linear correlations against SE at confidence levels of 95% and above, all of which were also found suitable to be used in predicting SE individually, depending on the results of regression analysis, ANOVA, Student's t-tests, and R-2 values. Poisson's ratio exhibited the highest correlation with SE and seemed to be the most reliable SE prediction tool in sandstones.

Extinction times for a birth-death process with two phases

Many populations have a negative impact on their habitat or upon other species in the environment if their numbers become too large. For this reason they are often subjected to some form of control. One common control regime is the reduction regime: when the population reaches a certain threshold it is controlled (for example culled) until it falls below a lower predefined level. The natural model for such a controlled population is a birth-death process with two phases, the phase determining which of two distinct sets of birth and death rates governs the process. We present formulae for the probability of extinction and the expected time to extinction, and discuss several applications. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Get the picture? The effects of iconicity on toddlers' reenactment from picture books

What do toddlers learn from everyday picture-book reading interactions? To date, there has been scant research exploring this question. In this study, the authors adapted a standard imitation procedure to examine 18- to 30-month-olds' ability to learn how to reenact a novel action sequence from a picture book. The results provide evidence that toddlers can imitate specific target actions on novel real-world objects on the basis of a picture-book interaction. Children's imitative performance after the reading interaction varied both as a function of age and the level of iconicity of the pictures in the book. These findings are discussed in terms of children's emerging symbolic capacity and the flexibility of the cognitive representation.

Model-Driven safety evaluation with state-event-based component failure annotations

Over the past years, the paradigm of component-based software engineering has been established in the construction of complex mission-critical systems. Due to this trend, there is a practical need for techniques that evaluate critical properties (such as safety, reliability, availability or performance) of these systems. In this paper, we review several high-level techniques for the evaluation of safety properties for component-based systems and we propose a new evaluation model (State Event Fault Trees) that extends safety analysis towards a lower abstraction level. This model possesses a state-event semantics and strong encapsulation, which is especially useful for the evaluation of component-based software systems. Finally, we compare the techniques and give suggestions for their combined usage

Patterns in complex systems modeling

The design, development, and use of complex systems models raises a unique class of challenges and potential pitfalls, many of which are commonly recurring problems. Over time, researchers gain experience in this form of modeling, choosing algorithms, techniques, and frameworks that improve the quality, confidence level, and speed of development of their models. This increasing collective experience of complex systems modellers is a resource that should be captured. Fields such as software engineering and architecture have benefited from the development of generic solutions to recurring problems, called patterns. Using pattern development techniques from these fields, insights from communities such as learning and information processing, data mining, bioinformatics, and agent-based modeling can be identified and captured. Collections of such 'pattern languages' would allow knowledge gained through experience to be readily accessible to less-experienced practitioners and to other domains. This paper proposes a methodology for capturing the wisdom of computational modelers by introducing example visualization patterns, and a pattern classification system for analyzing the relationship between micro and macro behaviour in complex systems models. We anticipate that a new field of complex systems patterns will provide an invaluable resource for both practicing and future generations of modelers.

PASTORAL EM SITUAÇÃO DE RUA Análise das Ações Pastorais da Comunidade Metodista do Povo de Rua na Cidade de São Paulo 1992 2009

A população em situação de rua é um fenômeno urbano, agravado na contemporaneidade por fatores de ordem social, econômica, cultural que agrupa pessoas independentemente da idade, etnia, grau de instrução e gênero, em situação de exclusão social, impedidos à renda e suprimento de suas necessidades vitais, culturais e sociais. Na condição de população sobrante, enfrenta obstáculos ao desenvolvimento de suas capacidades intelectuais, biológicas e culturais; à equidade de garantia de direitos civis, políticos e sociais; à qualidade de vida em harmonia e bem-estar objetivo dos seres humanos; e ao exercício pleno de sua cidadania. A Comunidade Metodista do Povo de Rua - CMPR encontrou o seu espaço no início da década de noventa, ao tempo em que a Prefeitura Municipal de São Paulo, na Legislatura da Prefeita Luíza Erundina, promoveu, através da Secretaria Municipal de Bem-Estar social, o censo para conhecer quem era, como vivia e como era vista a população de rua na cidade de São Paulo. Neste contexto, a Igreja Metodista Coreana Ebenezer oferecia à população uma assistência dominical servindo pão, café com leite e achocolatado na região do Parque Dom Pedro II. Sagrou-se a parceria para a criação da CMPR através do despertar do poder público e da participação da Igreja Metodista Coreana através do Café do Coreano. Foi fundamental a disposição dos Bispos Nelson Campos Leite e Geoval Jacinto da Silva, ambos da Terceira Região Eclesiástica da Igreja Metodista, que iniciaram os trabalhos utilizando a instituição de caráter filantrópico da Igreja Metodista, a AMAS Associação Metodista de Assistência Social. Assim, com sede no Viaduto Pedroso e, por proximidade geográfica, a CMPR vinculou-se a AMAS da Catedral Metodista de São Paulo, atuando em três dimensões: (1) criação da Casa de Convivência, (2) abrigamento no período do inverno; (3) Criação do albergue. O Plano de Ação elaborado pela CMPR que consagrou a criação do Albergue, data da transição 1994/95 e teve como base o Credo Social, o Plano para Vida e Missão da Igreja Metodista e o Plano de Ação encaminhado à Prefeitura, à luz da vertente social do movimento Metodista a partir de João Wesley, estabelecendo que o objetivo geral da CMPR fosse o resgate da cidadania das pessoas que constituem a população de rua. Nesta dimensão, a tese está estruturada em cinco capítulos, inclusa pesquisa de campo que foi aplicada a funcionários e ex-funcionários da CMPR, com objetivo de reunir conteúdos para se analisar as ações pastorais da CMPR na perspectiva da Práxis religiosa, considerando a Práxis filosófica e educacional, a fim de perceber se as ações pastorais são ações criadoras, reflexivas, libertadoras e radicais, e se promovem por meio da CMPR o resgate da cidadania em população de rua na cidade de São Paulo.(AU)