20 Years of the Atlantic Meridional Transect — AMT

The AMT (www.amt-uk.org) is a multidisciplinary programme which undertakes biological, chemical, and physical oceanographic research during an annual voyage between the UK and a destination in the South Atlantic such as the Falkland Islands,South Africa, or Chile. This transect of >12,000 km crosses a range of ecosystems from subpolar to tropical, from euphotic shelf seas and upwelling systems, to oligotrophic mid-ocean gyres. The year 2015 has seen two milestones in the history of the AMT: the achievement of 20 years of this unique ocean going programme and the departure of the 25th cruise on the 15th of September. Both of these events were celebrated in June this year with an open science conference hosted by the Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) and will be further documented in a special issue of Progress in Oceanography which is planned for publication in 2016. Since 1995, the 25 research cruises have involved 242 sea-going scientists from 66 institutes representing 22 countries.

Basking sharks and oceanographic fronts: quantifying associations in the north-east Atlantic

Understanding the mechanisms linking oceanographic processes and marine vertebrate habitat use is critical to effective management of populations of conservation concern. The basking shark Cetorhinus maximus has been shown to associate with oceanographic fronts – physical interfaces at the transitions between water masses – to exploit foraging opportunities resulting from aggregation of zooplankton. However, the scale, significance and variability of these observed associations have not yet been established. Here, we quantify the influence of mesoscale (10s – 100s km) frontal activity on habitat use over timescales of weeks to months. We use animal-mounted archival tracking with composite front mapping via Earth Observation (EO) remote sensing to provide an oceanographic context to individual shark movements. We investigate levels of association with fronts occurring over two spatio-temporal scales, (i) broad-scale seasonally persistent frontal zones and (ii) contemporaneous mesoscale thermal and chl-a fronts. Using random walk simulations and logistic regression within an iterative generalised linear mixed modelling (GLMM) framework, we find that seasonal front frequency is a significant predictor of shark presence. Temporally-matched oceanographic metrics also indicate that sharks demonstrate a preference for productive regions, and associate with contemporaneous thermal and chl-a fronts more frequently than could be expected at random. Moreover, we highlight the importance of cross-frontal temperature change and persistence, which appear to interact to affect the degree of prey aggregation along thermal fronts. These insights have clear implications for understanding the preferred habitats of basking sharks in the context of anthropogenic threat management and marine spatial planning in the northeast Atlantic.

The effect of the North Atlantic Subpolar Front as a boundary in pelagic biogeography decreases with increasing depth and organism size

Broad-scale patterns in the distribution of deep-sea pelagic species and communities are poorly known. An important question is whether biogeographic boundaries identified from surface features are important in the deep mesopelagic and bathypelagic. We present community analyses of discrete-depth samples of mesozooplankton and micronekton to full-ocean depth collected in the area where the Mid-Atlantic Ridge is crossed by the Subpolar Front. The results show that the distributional discontinuity associated with the front, which is strong near the surface, decreases with increasing depth. Both the frontal separation near the surface and the community convergence at increasing depths were clearer for mesozooplankton than for micronekton.

Southern Annular Mode and westerly-wind-driven changes in Indian-Atlantic exchange mechanisms

The dynamical link between the Indian Ocean and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) remains poorly understood. This partly arises from the complex Agulhas leakage, which occurs via rings, cyclones, and non-eddy flux. Hindcast simulations suggest that leakage has recently increased but have not decomposed this signal into its constituent mechanisms. Here these are isolated in a realistic ocean model. Increases in simulated leakage are attributed to stronger eddy and non-eddy-driven transports, and a strong warming and salinification, especially within Agulhas rings. Variability in both regimes is associated with strengthening Indian Ocean westerly winds, reflecting an increasingly positive Southern Annular Mode. While eddy and non-eddy flux signals are tied through turbulent eddy dissipation, the ratio between the two varies decadally. Consequently, while altimetry suggests a recent increase in retroflection turbulence and implied leakage, non-eddy flux may also play a significant role in modulating the leakage AMOC connection.

Estimating Oceanic Primary Production Using Vertical Irradiance and Chlorophyll Profiles from Ocean Gliders in the North Atlantic

An autonomous underwater vehicle (Seaglider) has been used to estimate marine primary production (PP) using a combination of irradiance and fluorescence vertical profiles. This method provides estimates for depth-resolved and temporally evolving PP on fine spatial scales in the absence of ship-based calibrations. We describe techniques to correct for known issues associated with long autonomous deployments such as sensor calibration drift and fluorescence quenching. Comparisons were made between the Seaglider, stable isotope (13C), and satellite estimates of PP. The Seaglider-based PP estimates were comparable to both satellite estimates and stable isotope measurements.

Evaluating machine-learning techniques for recruitment forecasting of seven North East Atlantic fish species

The effect of different factors (spawning biomass, environmental conditions) on recruitment is a subject of great importance in the management of fisheries, recovery plans and scenario exploration. In this study, recently proposed supervised classification techniques, tested by the machine-learning community, are applied to forecast the recruitment of seven fish species of North East Atlantic (anchovy, sardine, mackerel, horse mackerel, hake, blue whiting and albacore), using spawning, environmental and climatic data. In addition, the use of the probabilistic flexible naive Bayes classifier (FNBC) is proposed as modelling approach in order to reduce uncertainty for fisheries management purposes. Those improvements aim is to improve probability estimations of each possible outcome (low, medium and high recruitment) based in kernel density estimation, which is crucial for informed management decision making with high uncertainty. Finally, a comparison between goodness-of-fit and generalization power is provided, in order to assess the reliability of the final forecasting models. It is found that in most cases the proposed methodology provides useful information for management whereas the case of horse mackerel is an example of the limitations of the approach. The proposed improvements allow for a better probabilistic estimation of the different scenarios, i.e. to reduce the uncertainty in the provided forecasts.

Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios

Here we present quantitative projections of potential futures for ecosystems in the North Atlantic basin generated from coupling a climate change-driven biophysical model (representing ecosystem and fish populations under climate change) and a scenario-driven ecological–economic model (representing fleets and industries under economic globalization). Four contrasting scenarios (Baseline, Fortress, Global Commons, Free Trade) were defined from the perspective of alternative regional management and governance of the oceanic basin, providing pathways for the future of ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic basin by 2040. Results indicate that in the time frame considered: (1) the effects of governance and trade decisions are more significant in determining outcomes than the effects of climate change alone, (2) climate change is likely to result in a poleward latitudinal shift of species ranges and thus resources, with implications for exploitation patterns, (3) the level of fisheries regulation is the most important factor in determining the long term evolution of the fisheries system, (4) coupling climate change and governance impacts demonstrates the complex interaction between different components of this social–ecological system, (5) an important driver of change for the future of the North Atlantic and the European fishing fleets appears to be the interplay between wild fisheries and aquaculture development, and finally (6) scenarios demonstrate that the viability and profit of fisheries industries is highly volatile. This study highlights the need to explore basin-scale policy that combines medium to long-term environmental and socio-economic considerations, and the importance of defining alternative sustainable pathways.

Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

Mercury presence and speciation in the South Atlantic Ocean along the 40°S transect

Mercury (Hg) natural biogeochemical cycle is complex and a significant portion of biological and chemical transformation occurs in the marine environment. To better understand the presence and abundance of Hg species in the remote ocean regions, waters of South Atlantic Ocean along 40°S parallel were investigated during UK-GEOTRACES cruise GA10. Total mercury (THg), methylated mercury (MeHg), and dissolved gaseous mercury (DGM) concentrations were determined. The concentrations were very low in the range of pg/L (femtomolar). All Hg species had higher concentration in western than in eastern basin. THg did not appear to be a useful geotracer. Elevated methylated Hg species were commonly associated with low-oxygen water masses and occasionally with peaks of chlorophyll a, both involved with carbon (re)cycling. The overall highest MeHg concentrations were observed in themixed layer (500m) and in the vicinity of the Gough Island. Conversely, DGM concentrations showed distinct layering and differed between the water masses in a nutrient-like manner. DGM was lowest at surface, indicating degassing to the atmosphere, and was highest in the Upper Circumpolar Deep Water, where the oxygen concentration was lowest. DGM increased also in Antarctic Bottom Water. At one station, dimethylmercury was determined and showed increase in region with lowest oxygen saturation. Altogether, our data indicate that the South Atlantic Ocean could be a source of Hg to the atmosphere and that its biogeochemical transformations depend primarily upon carbon cycling and are thereby additionally prone to global ocean change.

Brassica oleracea L. distribution and ecology in the Iberian atlantic coasts

The distribution and ecology of Brassica oleracea in the atlantic coasts of Iberian Peninsule are studied. A new association or nitrified maritime cliffs is described: Crithmo-Brassicetum oleraceae. This community has been included in the Alliance Crithmo-Armerion due to the high presence of halophitic species.

Diatom carbon export enhanced by silicate upwelling in the North East Atlantic.

Diatom carbon export enhanced by silicate upwelling in the northeast Atlantic John T. Allen1,2, Louise Brown1,3, Richard Sanders1, C. Mark Moore1, Alexander Mustard1, Sophie Fielding1, Mike Lucas1, Michel Rixen4, Graham Savidge5, Stephanie Henson1 and Dan Mayor1 Top of pageDiatoms are unicellular or chain-forming phytoplankton that use silicon (Si) in cell wall construction. Their survival during periods of apparent nutrient exhaustion enhances carbon sequestration in frontal regions of the northern North Atlantic. These regions may therefore have a more important role in the 'biological pump' than they have previously been attributed1, but how this is achieved is unknown. Diatom growth depends on silicate availability, in addition to nitrate and phosphate2, 3, but northern Atlantic waters are richer in nitrate than silicate4. Following the spring stratification, diatoms are the first phytoplankton to bloom2, 5. Once silicate is exhausted, diatom blooms subside in a major export event6, 7. Here we show that, with nitrate still available for new production, the diatom bloom is prolonged where there is a periodic supply of new silicate: specifically, diatoms thrive by 'mining' deep-water silicate brought to the surface by an unstable ocean front. The mechanism we present here is not limited to silicate fertilization; similar mechanisms could support nitrate-, phosphate- or iron-limited frontal regions in oceans elsewhere.

The uptake of silica during the spring bloom in the North East Atlantic Ocean

A full understanding of the biogeochemical cycling of silica in the North Atlantic is hampered by a lack of estimates of silica uptake by phytoplankton. We applied the ${}^{32}\text{Si}$ radiotracer incubation technique to determine silica uptake rates at 10 sites during the UK-(Natural Environment Research Council) Faroes-Iceland-Scotland hydrographic and environmental survey (FISHES) cruise in the Northeast Atlantic, May 2001. Column silica uptake rates ranged between 6 and 166 mmol Si $\text{m}^{-2}\ \text{d}^{-1}$; this data set was integrated with concurrent hydrographic, chemical, and primary productivity data to explain these changes in silica uptake in terms of the progress of the spring bloom. In order to interpret data covering a relatively large spatial and temporal scale, we used mean photic zone silica concentration as a proxy time-series measure of diatom bloom progression. Both absolute and specific silica uptake rates were highest at dissolved silica concentrations >2 mmol $\text{L}^{-1}$. Si and C uptake were vertically decoupled at those stations where surface silica was strongly depleted. Absolute primary productivity was not strongly correlated with dissolved silica concentrations, owing to either exhaustion of silica at diatom-dominated stations or to dominance of the community by other phytoplankton. Silica uptake as a function of increased substrate concentration was linear up to 25 $\mu \text{mol}\ \text{L}^{-1}$; we consider some possible reasons for the nonhyperbolic response.