Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Experiments on a plume with off-source heating: Implications for cloud fluid dynamics

We report here on a series of laboratory experiments on plumes, undertaken with the object of simulating the effect of the heat release that occurs in clouds on condensation of water vapor. The experimental technique used for this purpose relies on ohmic heating generated in an electrically conducting plume fluid subjected to a suitable alternating voltage across specified axial stations in the plume flow [Bhat et al., 1989]. The present series of experiments achieves a value of the Richardson number that is toward the lower end of the range that characteristics cumulus clouds. It is found that the buoyancy enhancement due to heating disrupts the eddy structures in the flow and reduces the dilution owing to entrainment of ambient fluid that would otherwise have occurred in the central region of the plume. Heating also reduces the spread rate of the plume, but as it accelerates the flow as well, the overall specific mass flux in the plume does not show a very significant change at the heat input employed in the experiment. However, there is some indication that the entrainment rate (proportional to the streamwise derivative of the mass flux) is slightly higher immediately after heat injection and slightly lower farther downstream. The measurements support a previous proposal for a cloud scenario [Bhat and Narasimha, 1996] and demonstrate how fresh insights into certain aspects of the fluid dynamics of clouds may be derived from the experimental techniques employed here.

The hunt for disability: The new eugenics and the normalization of school children

Examines issues of sameness, difference, equality, and democracy in present public school systems, focusing on the question of (dis)ability and implications of rethinking (dis)ability as an ontological issue before its inscription as an educational one concerning the politics of inclusion. The paper analyzes old and new discourses of eugenics as quality control of national populations. (Contains references.) (SM)

Species-area and species-individual relationships for tropical trees: A comparison of three 50-ha plots

1 Species-accumulation curves for woody plants were calculated in three tropical forests, based on fully mapped 50-ha plots in wet, old-growth forest in Peninsular Malaysia, in moist, old-growth forest in central Panama, and in dry, previously logged forest in southern India. A total of 610 000 stems were identified to species and mapped to < Im accuracy. Mean species number and stem number were calculated in quadrats as small as 5 m x 5 m to as large as 1000 m x 500 m, for a variety of stem sizes above 10 mm in diameter. Species-area curves were generated by plotting species number as a function of quadrat size; species-individual curves were generated from the same data, but using stem number as the independent variable rather than area. 2 Species-area curves had different forms for stems of different diameters, but species-individual curves were nearly independent of diameter class. With < 10(4) stems, species-individual curves were concave downward on log-log plots, with curves from different forests diverging, but beyond about 104 stems, the log-log curves became nearly linear, with all three sites having a similar slope. This indicates an asymptotic difference in richness between forests: the Malaysian site had 2.7 times as many species as Panama, which in turn was 3.3 times as rich as India. 3 Other details of the species-accumulation relationship were remarkably similar between the three sites. Rectangular quadrats had 5-27% more species than square quadrats of the same area, with longer and narrower quadrats increasingly diverse. Random samples of stems drawn from the entire 50 ha had 10-30% more species than square quadrats with the same number of stems. At both Pasoh and BCI, but not Mudumalai. species richness was slightly higher among intermediate-sized stems (50-100mm in diameter) than in either smaller or larger sizes, These patterns reflect aggregated distributions of individual species, plus weak density-dependent forces that tend to smooth the species abundance distribution and 'loosen' aggregations as stems grow. 4 The results provide support for the view that within each tree community, many species have their abundance and distribution guided more by random drift than deterministic interactions. The drift model predicts that the species-accumulation curve will have a declining slope on a log-log plot, reaching a slope of O.1 in about 50 ha. No other model of community structure can make such a precise prediction. 5 The results demonstrate that diversity studies based on different stem diameters can be compared by sampling identical numbers of stems. Moreover, they indicate that stem counts < 1000 in tropical forests will underestimate the percentage difference in species richness between two diverse sites. Fortunately, standard diversity indices (Fisher's sc, Shannon-Wiener) captured diversity differences in small stem samples more effectively than raw species richness, but both were sample size dependent. Two nonparametric richness estimators (Chao. jackknife) performed poorly, greatly underestimating true species richness.

A probabilistic constrained nonlinear optimization framework to optimize RED parameters

The random early detection (RED) technique has seen a lot of research over the years. However, the functional relationship between RED performance and its parameters viz,, queue weight (omega(q)), marking probability (max(p)), minimum threshold (min(th)) and maximum threshold (max(th)) is not analytically availa ble. In this paper, we formulate a probabilistic constrained optimization problem by assuming a nonlinear relationship between the RED average queue length and its parameters. This problem involves all the RED parameters as the variables of the optimization problem. We use the barrier and the penalty function approaches for its Solution. However (as above), the exact functional relationship between the barrier and penalty objective functions and the optimization variable is not known, but noisy samples of these are available for different parameter values. Thus, for obtaining the gradient and Hessian of the objective, we use certain recently developed simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) based estimates of these. We propose two four-timescale stochastic approximation algorithms based oil certain modified second-order SPSA updates for finding the optimum RED parameters. We present the results of detailed simulation experiments conducted over different network topologies and network/traffic conditions/settings, comparing the performance of Our algorithms with variants of RED and a few other well known adaptive queue management (AQM) techniques discussed in the literature.

Energy-based motion control of a slender hull unmanned underwater vehicle

This paper presents a motion control system for tracking of attitude and speed of an underactuated slender-hull unmanned underwater vehicle. The feedback control strategy is developed using the Port-Hamiltonian theory. By shaping of the target dynamics (desired dynamic response in closed loop) with particular attention to the target mass matrix, the influence of the unactuated dynamics on the controlled system is suppressed. This results in achievable dynamics independent of stable uncontrolled states. Throughout the design, the insight of the physical phenomena involved is used to propose the desired target dynamics. Integral action is added to the system for robustness and to reject steady disturbances. This is achieved via a change of coordinates that result in input-to-state stable (ISS) target dynamics. As a final step in the design, an anti-windup scheme is implemented to account for limited actuator capacity, namely saturation. The performance of the design is demonstrated through simulation with a high-fidelity model.

Rapid Synthesis And Properties Of Fevo4, Alvo4, Yvo4, And Eu3+-Doped Yvo4

Fine particle FeVO4, AIVO4, YVO4 and Yo.95Eu0.05VO4 have been prepared by the combustion of aqueous solutions containing corresponding metal nitrate, ammonium metavanadate, ammonium nitrate and 3-methyl-5-pyrazolone.The solutions containing the redox mixtures, when rapidly heated at 370 °C, ignite and undergo self-propagating,gas-producing, exothermic reactions to yield fine particle metal vanadates. Formation of crystalline vanadates was confirmed by powder X-ray diffraction patterns,27A1 nuclear magnetic resonance, IR and fluorescence spectra.

The effect of ball milling on the melting behavior of Sn-Cu-Ag eutectic alloy

Sn-Ag-Cu (SAC) solder alloys are the best Pb free alternative for electronic industry. Since their introduction, efforts are made to improve their efficacies by tuning the processing and composition to achieve lower melting point and better wettability. Nanostructured alloys with large boundary content are known to depress the melting points of metals and alloys. In this article we explore this possibility by processing prealloyed SAC alloys close to SAC305 composition (Sn-3wt%Ag-0.5wt%Cu) by mechanical milling which results in the formation of nanostructured alloys. Pulverisette ball mill (P7) and Vibratory ball mills are used to carry out the milling of the powders at room temperature and at lower temperatures (-104 A degrees C), respectively. We report a relatively smaller depression of melting point ranging up to 5 A degrees C with respect to original alloys. The minimum grain sizes achieved and the depression of melting point are similar for both room temperature and low-temperature processed samples. An attempt has been made to rationalize the observations in terms of the basic processes occurring during the milling.

General ranked set sampling for efficient treatment comparisons

In treatment comparison experiments, the treatment responses are often correlated with some concomitant variables which can be measured before or at the beginning of the experiments. In this article, we propose schemes for the assignment of experimental units that may greatly improve the efficiency of the comparison in such situations. The proposed schemes are based on general ranked set sampling. The relative efficiency and cost-effectiveness of the proposed schemes are studied and compared. It is found that some proposed schemes are always more efficient than the traditional simple random assignment scheme when the total cost is the same. Numerical studies show promising results using the proposed schemes.

A comparison of the molecular orbital (ab initio, CNDO and EHT) methods applied to the conformational study of thiocarbonohydrazide in its basic and diprotonated forms

Conformational preferences of thiocarbonohydrazide (H2NNHCSNHNH2) in its basic and N,N′-diprotonated forms are examined by calculating the barrier to internal rotation around the C---N bonds, using the theoretical LCAO—MO (ab initio and semiempirical CNDO and EHT) methods. The calculated and experimental results are compared with each other and also with values for N,N′-dimethylthiourea which is isoelectronic with thiocarbonohydrazide. The suitability of these methods for studying rotational isomerism seems suspect when lone pair interactions are present.

Phase relations and dielectric properties of BaTi03 ceramics heavily substituted with neodymium

Investigations on the phase relations and dielectric properties of (1 -x)BaTiO3 + xNd2/3TiO 3 (BNT) ceramics sintered in air below 1650 K have been carried out. X-ray powder diffraction studies indicate apparent phase singularity for compositions with x < 0.3. Nd2Ti207 is detected at higher neodymium concentrations. The unit cell parameter changes continuously with neodymium content, and BaTiO3 is completely cubic at room temperature with x -- 0.0525, whereas electron diffraction studies indicate that the air-sintered BNT ceramics with x > 0.08 contain additional phases that are partly amorphous even to an electron beam. SEM observations reveal that BaTiO3 grains are mostly covered by a molten intergranular phase, and show the presence of randomly distributed Nd2Ti207 grains. Energy dispersive X-ray analysis shows the Ba-Nd-Ti ternary composition of the intergranular phase. Differential thermal analysis studies support the formation of a partial melt involving dissolution-precipitation of boundary layers of BaTiO3 grains. These complex phase relations are accounted for in terms of the phase instability of BaTiO3 with large cation-vacancy concentration as a result of heavy Nd 3+ substitution. The absence of structural intergrowth in (1 - x)BaTiO3 + xNd2/3TiO3 under oxidative conditions leads to a separation of phases wherein the new phases undergo melting and remain X-ray amorphous. BNT ceramics with 0.1 < x < 0.3 have ~eff >~ 104 with tan 6 < 0.1 and nearly flat temperature capacitance characteristics. The grain-size dependence of ee,, variations of ~eff and tan 6 with the measuring frequency, the non-ohmic resistivities, and the non-linear leakage currents at higher field-strengths which are accompanied by the decrease in eeff and rise in tan 3, are explained on the basis of an intergranular (internal boundary layer) dielectric characteristic of these ceramics.

On the moulding of population viscosity by natural selection

In this paper, we explore the conjoint evolution of dispersal and social behaviour. The model investigated is of a population distributed over a number of sites each with a carrying capacity of two adults and an episode of dispersal in the juvenile stage. The fertilities are governed by whether an individual and its neighbour are selfish or co-operative. It is shown that the best dispersal strategy for the co-operative genotype always involves lower levels of dispersal; and further that ecological conditions favouring low levels of dispersal increase the selective advantage of a co-operative genotype. Given this positive feedback, we suggest that in any taxon viscosity and co-operativity will tend to be correlated and bimodally distributed. Hence we predict the existence of two kinds of animal societies; viscous and co-operative (e.g. quasi-social wasps such as Mischocyttarus), and non-viscous and selfish (e.g. communal sphecid wasps such as Cerceris), and relatively few social groups with intermediate levels of co-operativity and viscosity. We also suggest that when one of the two sexes disperses, it will be the sex with lower potential for co-operative behaviour.

Coliforms in processed mango: Significance and control

The aims of this investigation were to enumerate coliforms in fresh mangoes, puree, cheeks, and cheeks-in-puree in order to determine the source of these organisms in the processed products, to determine methods for their control, and to identify coliforms isolated from cheeks-in-puree to determine whether they have any public health significance. Product from four processors was tested on two occasions. The retail packs of cheeks-in-puree having the highest coliform counts were those in which raw puree was added to the cheeks. Coliform counts in these samples ranged between 1.4 × 103 and 5.4 × 104 cfu/g. Pasteurisation reduced the coliform count of raw puree to < 5 cfu/g. Forty-seven percent of the 73 colonies, isolated as coliforms on the basis of their colony morphology on violet red bile agar, were identified as Klebsiella pneumoniae using the ATB 32E Identification System. Klebsiella strains were tested for growth at 10 °C, faecal coliform response, and fermentation of -melizitose, to differentiate the three phenotypically similar strains, K. pneumoniae, K. terrigena and K planticola. Results indicated that 41% of K. pneumoniae isolates gave reactions typical of K. pneumoniae. A further 44% of strains gave an atypical reaction pattern for these tests and were designated ‘psychrotrophic’ K. pneumoniae. Klebsiella pneumoniae counts of between 2.1 × 103 and 4.9 × 104 cfu/g were predicted to occur in the retail packs of mango cheeks-in-puree produced by the processors who constituted this product with raw puree. In view of the opportunistic pathogenic nature of K. pneumoniae, its presence in these products is considered undesirable and steps, such as pasteurisation of puree, should be taken in order to inactivate it

The fishery and reproductive biology of Barking crayfish, Linuparus trigonus (Von Siebold, 1824) along Queenslands east coast

This paper describes the fishery and reproductive biology for Linuparus trigonus obtained from trawl fishermen operating off Queensland’s east coast, Australia. The smallest mature female lobster measured 59.8 mm CL, however, 50% maturity was reached between 80 and 85 mm CL. Brood fecundity (BF) was size dependent and ranged between 19,287 and 100,671 eggs in 32 females from 59.8 to 104.3 mm CL. The relationship was best described by the power equation BF = 0.1107*CL to the power of 2.9241 (r to the power of 2 = 0:74). Egg size ranged from 0.96 to 1.12 mm in diameter (mean = 1:02 (+or-) 0:01 mm). Egg weight and size were independent of lobster size. Length frequencies displayed multi-modal distributions.The percentage of female to male lobsters was relatively stable for small size classes (30 to 70 mm CL; 50.0 to 63.6% females), but female proportions rose markedly between 75 and 90 mm (72.2 to 85.4%) suggesting that at the onset of sexual maturity female growth rates are reduced. In size classes greater than 95 mm, males were numerically dominant. A description of the L. trigonus fishery in Queensland is also detailed.

Microbiological status of piggery effluent from 13 piggeries in the south east Queensland region of Australia

Aims: To assist in the development of safe piggery effluent re-use guidelines by determining the level of selected pathogens and indicator organisms in the effluent ponds of 13 south-east Queensland piggeries. Methods and Results: The numbers of thermotolerant coliforms, Campylobacter jejuni/coli, Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae, Escherichia coli, Salmonella and rotavirus were determined in 29 samples derived from the 13 piggeries. The study demonstrated that the 13 final effluent ponds contained an average of 1Æ2 · 105 colony-forming units (CFU) 100 ml)1 of thermotolerant coliforms and 1Æ03 · 105 CFU 100 ml)1 of E. coli. The Campylobacter level varied from none detectable (two of 13 piggeries) to a maximum of 930 most probable number (MPN) 100 ml)1 (two of 13 piggeries). Salmonella was detected in the final ponds of only four of the 13 piggeries and then only at a low level (highest level being 51 MPN 100 ml)1). No rotavirus and no Erysip. rhusiopathiae were detected. The average log10 reductions across the ponding systems to the final irrigation pond were 1Æ77 for thermotolerant coliforms, 1Æ71 for E. coli and 1Æ04 for Campylobacter. Conclusions: This study has provided a baseline knowledge on the levels of indicator organisms and selected pathogens in piggery effluent. Significance and Impact of the Study: The knowledge gained in this study will assist in the development of guidelines to ensure the safe and sustainable re-use of piggery effluent.