Overview of complex systems in sport

The complex systems approach offers an opportunity to replace the extant pre-dominant mechanistic view on sport-related phenomena. The emphasis on the environment-system relationship, the applications of complexity principles, and the use of nonlinear dynamics mathematical tools propose a deep change in sport science. Coordination dynamics, ecological dynamics, and network approaches have been successfully applied to the study of different sport-related behaviors, from movement patterns that emerge at different scales constrained by specific sport contexts to game dynamics. Sport benefit from the use of such approaches in the understanding of technical, tactical, or physical conditioning aspects which change their meaning and dilute their frontiers. The creation of new learning and training strategies for teams and individual athletes is a main practical consequence. Some challenges for the future are investigating the influence of key control parameters in the nonlinear behavior of athlete-environment systems and the possible relatedness of the dynamics and constraints acting at different spatio-temporal scales in team sports. Modelling sport-related phenomena can make useful contributions to a better understanding of complex systems and vice-versa.

Science of winning soccer : emergent pattern-forming dynamics in association football

Quantitative analysis is increasingly being used in team sports to better understand performance in these stylized, delineated, complex social systems. Here we provide a first step toward understanding the pattern-forming dynamics that emerge from collective offensive and defensive behavior in team sports. We propose a novel method of analysis that captures how teams occupy sub-areas of the field as the ball changes location. We used the method to analyze a game of association football (soccer) based upon a hypothesis that local player numerical dominance is key to defensive stability and offensive opportunity. We found that the teams consistently allocated more players than their opponents in sub-areas of play closer to their own goal. This is consistent with a predominantly defensive strategy intended to prevent yielding even a single goal. We also find differences between the two teams' strategies: while both adopted the same distribution of defensive, midfield, and attacking players (a 4:3:3 system of play), one team was significantly more effective both in maintaining defensive and offensive numerical dominance for defensive stability and offensive opportunity. That team indeed won the match with an advantage of one goal (2 to 1) but the analysis shows the advantage in play was more pervasive than the single goal victory would indicate. Our focus on the local dynamics of team collective behavior is distinct from the traditional focus on individual player capability. It supports a broader view in which specific player abilities contribute within the context of the dynamics of multiplayer team coordination and coaching strategy. By applying this complex system analysis to association football, we can understand how players' and teams' strategies result in successful and unsuccessful relationships between teammates and opponents in the area of play.

Capturing complex, non-linear team behaviours during competitive football performance

This study investigated changes in the complexity (magnitude and structure of variability) of the collective behaviours of association football teams during competitive performance. Raw positional data from an entire competitive match between two professional teams were obtained with the ProZone® tracking system. Five compound positional variables were used to investigate the collective patterns of performance of each team including: surface area, stretch index, team length, team width, and geometrical centre. Analyses involve the coefficient of variation (%CV) and approximate entropy (ApEn), as well as the linear association between both parameters. Collective measures successfully captured the idiosyncratic behaviours of each team and their variations across the six time periods of the match. Key events such as goals scored and game breaks (such as half time and full time) seemed to influence the collective patterns of performance. While ApEn values significantly decreased during each half, the %CV increased. Teams seem to become more regular and predictable, but with increased magnitudes of variation in their organisational shape over the natural course of a match.

Weekly cisplatin concurrently with radiotherapy in head and neck squamous cell cancer : a retrospective analysis of a tertiary institute experience

Radiotherapy combined with three weekly 100 mg/m2 of cisplatin is the accepted standard of care in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. However, this regimen is associated with severe toxicities with devastating effects on patients. Alternative protocols like weekly 40 mg/m2 have been used in an attempt to reduce toxicities. The main objective of the present study is to identify the dose intensities and toxicities of weekly cisplatin in patients treated in a tertiary centre over a 12 month period. Included patients had squamous cell carcinoma arising in the oral cavity, oropharynx, larynx, or hypopharynx. Patients were excluded if they had nasopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma, distant metastasis or if they had prior treatment for head and neck cancer excluding neck dissection. During the study period, 52 patients met the inclusion criteria and their data were retrospectively obtained from the patients' database of St James hospital, Dublin. The median age of the study cohort was 54 years (range 33-73). Of the patients, 40 (76.9 %) were male and 12 (20.1 %) were female. The primary tumour sites were as follows: oral cavity and oropharynx in 38 (73 %), larynx in 10 (19 %), and hypopharynx in 4 (8 %). In total, 33 (63.5 %) patients had stage IV disease, while 19 (36.5 %) had stage III disease. Treatment was definitive in 35 (67 %) patients and adjuvant in 17 (35 %). Full-dose radiotherapy was achieved in 50 (96 %) patients. Only 22 (42.3 %) patients completed the intended six cycles of chemotherapy. Cumulative dose of 200 mg/m2 or more was reached in 37 (71 %) patients. The acute adverse effects included grades 3 and 4 mucositis, which occurred in 22 (43.3 %) and 6 patients (12 %), respectively. Grade 3 and 4 neutropenia occurred in six (11.5 %) and three (5.7 %) patients, respectively. The only other haematological toxicity was grade 3 anaemia in 20 (38.4 %) patients. There was no grade 3 or 4 renal toxicity among the study cohort, although grade 2 was observed in six (11.5 %) patients. Death occurred in one patient due to neutropenic septicaemia. In conclusion, weekly cisplatin is associated with moderate to severe toxicities and might lead to suboptimal chemotherapy delivery. More prospective clinical studies are required to determine the optimal chemoradiation regimen in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

Scepticism and trust: two counterpoint essentials in science education for complex socio-scientific issues

In this response to Tom G. K. Bryce and Stephen P. Day’s (Cult Stud Sci Educ. doi:10.1007/s11422-013-9500-0, 2013) original article, I share with them their interest in the teaching of climate change in school science, but I widen it to include other contemporary complex socio-scientific issues that also need to be discussed. I use an alternative view of the relationship between science, technology and society, supported by evidence from both science and society, to suggest science-informed citizens as a more realistic outcome image of school science than the authors’ one of mini-scientists. The intellectual independence of students Bryce and Day assume, and intend for school science, is countered with an active intellectual dependence. It is only in relation to emerging and uncertain scientific contexts that students should be taught about scepticism, but they also need to learn when, and why to trust science as an antidote to the expressions of doubting it. Some suggestions for pedagogies that could lead to these new learnings are made. The very recent fifth report of the IPCC answers many of their concerns about climate change.

Blast response and failure analysis of pile foundations subjected to surface explosion

This paper presents the response of pile foundations to ground shocks induced by surface explosion using fully coupled and non-linear dynamic computer simulation techniques together with different material models for the explosive, air, soil and pile. It uses the Arbitrary Lagrange Euler coupling formulation with proper state material parameters and equations. Blast wave propagation in soil, horizontal pile deformation and pile damage are presented to facilitate failure evaluation of piles. Effects of end restraint of pile head and the number and spacing of piles within a group on their blast response and potential failure are investigated. The techniques developed and applied in this paper and its findings provide valuable information on the blast response and failure evaluation of piles and will provide guidance in their future analysis and design.

Web based surveillance systems could improve disease detection and the response to emerging disease events

The Chinese government should be commended for its open, concerted, and rapid response to the recent H7N9 influenza outbreak. However, the first known case was not reported until 48 days after disease onset.1 Although the difficulties in detecting the virus and the lack of suitable diagnostic methods have been the focus of discussion,2 systematic limitations that may have contributed to this delay have hardly been discussed. The detection speed of surveillance systems is limited by the highly structured nature of information flow and hierarchical organisation of these systems. Flu surveillance usually relies on notification to a central authority of laboratory confirmed cases or presentations to sentinel practices for flu-like illness. Each step in this pathway presents a bottleneck at which information and time can be lost; this limitation must be dealt with...

Statistical modelling of district-level residential electricity use in NSW, Australia

Electricity network investment and asset management require accurate estimation of future demand in energy consumption within specified service areas. For this purpose, simple models are typically developed to predict future trends in electricity consumption using various methods and assumptions. This paper presents a statistical model to predict electricity consumption in the residential sector at the Census Collection District (CCD) level over the state of New South Wales, Australia, based on spatial building and household characteristics. Residential household demographic and building data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and actual electricity consumption data from electricity companies are merged for 74 % of the 12,000 CCDs in the state. Eighty percent of the merged dataset is randomly set aside to establish the model using regression analysis, and the remaining 20 % is used to independently test the accuracy of model prediction against actual consumption. In 90 % of the cases, the predicted consumption is shown to be within 5 kWh per dwelling per day from actual values, with an overall state accuracy of -1.15 %. Given a future scenario with a shift in climate zone and a growth in population, the model is used to identify the geographical or service areas that are most likely to have increased electricity consumption. Such geographical representation can be of great benefit when assessing alternatives to the centralised generation of energy; having such a model gives a quantifiable method to selecting the 'most' appropriate system when a review or upgrade of the network infrastructure is required.

The impact of heat waves on children's health : a systematic review

Young children are thought to be particularly sensitive to heatwaves, but relatively less research attention has been paid to this field to date. A systematic review was conducted to elucidate the relationship between heat waves and children’s health. Literature published up to August 2012 were identified using the following MeSH terms and keywords: “heatwave”, “heat wave”, “child health”, “morbidity”, “hospital admission”, “emergency department visit”, “family practice”, “primary health care”, “death” and “mortality”. Of the 628 publications identified, 12 met the selection criteria. The existing literature does not consistently suggest that mortality among children increases significantly during heat waves, even though infants were associated with more heat-related deaths. Exposure to heat waves in the perinatal period may pose a threat to children’s health. Pediatric diseases or conditions associated with heat waves include renal disease, respiratory disease, electrolyte imbalance and fever. Future research should focus on how to develop a consistent definition of a heat wave from a children’s health perspective, identifying the best measure of children’s exposure to heat waves, exploring sensitive outcome measures to quantify the impact of heat waves on children, evaluating the possible impacts of heat waves on children’s birth outcomes, and understanding the differences in vulnerability to heat waves among children of different ages and from different income countries. Projection of the children’s disease burden caused by heat waves under climate change scenarios, and development of effective heat wave mitigation and adaptation strategies that incorporate other child protective health measures, are also strongly recommended.

Prevention of surgical site infection in total joint arthroplasty : an international tertiary care center survery

Background Prevention strategies are critical to reduce infection rates in total joint arthroplasty (TJA), but evidence-based consensus guidelines on prevention of surgical site infection (SSI) remain heterogeneous and do not necessarily represent this particular patient population. Questions/Purposes What infection prevention measures are recommended by consensus evidence-based guidelines for prevention of periprosthetic joint infection? How do these recommendations compare to expert consensus on infection prevention strategies from orthopedic surgeons from the largest international tertiary referral centers for TJA? Patients and Methods A review of consensus guidelines was undertaken as described by Merollini et al. Four clinical guidelines met inclusion criteria: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's, British Orthopedic Association, National Institute of Clinical Excellence's, and National Health and Medical Research Council's (NHMRC). Twenty-eight recommendations from these guidelines were used to create an evidence-based survey of infection prevention strategies that was administered to 28 orthopedic surgeons from members of the International Society of Orthopedic Centers. The results between existing consensus guidelines and expert opinion were then compared. Results Recommended strategies in the guidelines such as prophylactic antibiotics, preoperative skin preparation of patients and staff, and sterile surgical attire were considered critically or significantly important by the surveyed surgeons. Additional strategies such as ultraclean air/laminar flow, antibiotic cement, wound irrigation, and preoperative blood glucose control were also considered highly important by surveyed surgeons, but were not recommended or not uniformly addressed in existing guidelines on SSI prevention. Conclusion Current evidence-based guidelines are incomplete and evidence should be updated specifically to address patient needs undergoing TJA.

UV Photodissociation Action Spectroscopy of Haloanilinium Ions in a Linear Quadrupole Ion Trap Mass Spectrometer

UV-vis photodissociation action spectroscopy is becoming increasingly prevalent because of advances in, and commercial availability of, ion trapping technologies and tunable laser sources. This study outlines in detail an instrumental arrangement, combining a commercial ion-trap mass spectrometer and tunable nanosecond pulsed laser source, for performing fully automated photodissociation action spectroscopy on gas-phase ions. The components of the instrumentation are outlined, including the optical and electronic interfacing, in addition to the control software for automating the experiment and performing online analysis of the spectra. To demonstrate the utility of this ensemble, the photodissociation action spectra of 4-chloroanilinium, 4-bromoanilinium, and 4-iodoanilinium cations are presented and discussed. Multiple photoproducts are detected in each case and the photoproduct yields are followed as a function of laser wavelength. It is shown that the wavelength-dependent partitioning of the halide loss, H loss, and NH3 loss channels can be broadly rationalized in terms of the relative carbon-halide bond dissociation energies and processes of energy redistribution. The photodissociation action spectrum of (phenyl)Ag-2 (+) is compared with a literature spectrum as a further benchmark.

Formation and Fragmentation of Unsaturated Fatty Acid M-2H+Na (-) Ions: Stabilized Carbanions for Charge-Directed Fragmentation

Fatty acids are long-chain carboxylic acids that readily produce \[M - H](-) ions upon negative ion electrospray ionization (ESI) and cationic complexes with alkali, alkaline earth, and transition metals in positive ion ESI. In contrast, only one anionic monomeric fatty acid-metal ion complex has been reported in the literature, namely \[M - 2H + (FeCl)-Cl-II](-). In this manuscript, we present two methods to form anionic unsaturated fatty acid-sodium ion complexes (i.e., \[M - 2H + Na](-)). We find that these ions may be generated efficiently by two distinct methods: (1) negative ion ESI of a methanolic solution containing the fatty acid and sodium fluoride forming an \[M - H + NaF](-) ion. Subsequent collision-induced dissociation (CID) results in the desired \[M - 2H + Na](-) ion via the neutral loss of HF. (2) Direct formation of the \[M - 2H + Na](-) ion by negative ion ESI of a methanolic solution containing the fatty acid and sodium hydroxide or bicarbonate. In addition to deprotonation of the carboxylic acid moiety, formation of \[M - 2H + Na](-) ions requires the removal of a proton from the fatty acid acyl chain. We propose that this deprotonation occurs at the bis-allylic position(s) of polyunsaturated fatty acids resulting in the formation of a resonance-stabilized carbanion. This proposal is supported by ab initio calculations, which reveal that removal of a proton from the bis-allylic position, followed by neutral loss of HX (where X = F- and -OH), is the lowest energy dissociation pathway.

Task constraints

Newell (1985, 1986) identified the importance of interacting constraints on the emergent behaviours of learners or performers in sport as they assemble functional states of movement organisation in achieving task goals. Constraints, related to the person, task and environment, were defined as ‘boundaries or features that limit motion of the entity under consideration at any moment in time’ (Newell, 1986, p.347). Personal (or organismic) constraints include factors such as individual anthropometrics (height, weight, and limb lengths), fitness (e.g., strength, speed, aerobic capacity, and flexibility), mental skills (e.g. concentration, confidence, emotional control and motivation), perceptual and decisionmaking skills (e.g., recognising patterns of play, anticipation by reading the movements of opponents) and personality factors (e.g., risk taking or conservative behaviours). Newell (1986, p.350) distinguished between general environmental constraints, such as gravity, ambient temperature, natural light and altitude and task constraints, which are task specific and concerned with the goals of a specific activity. More recently, socio-cultural constraints (e.g., family support, cultural expectations and access to facilities) have also been considered as environmental constraints. Application of the constraints framework to the study of sport performance has led to task constraints being defined to include factors such as rules of games, equipment used, boundary playing areas and markings, nets and goals, the number of...