The Beacon, January 11, 2007

Vol. 19, Issue 38, 8 pages

A Study of Stock Market Fluctuations and their Relations to Business Conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubble-like deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the non-fundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

Macroinvertebrate abundance in montane tropical streams of varying land-use, Ecuador

Despite the importance of tropical montane cloud forest streams, studies investigating aquatic communities in these regions are rare and knowledge on the driving factors of community structure is missing. The objectives of this study therefore were to understand how land-use influences habitat structure and macroinvertebrate communities in cloud forest streams of southern Ecuador. We evaluated these relationships in headwater streams with variable land cover, using multivariate statistics to identify relationships between key habitat variables and assemblage structure, and to resolve differences in composition among sites. Results show that shading intensity, substrate type and pH were the environmental parameters most closely related to variation in community composition observed among sites. In addition, macroinvertebrate density and partly diversity was lower in forested sites, possibly because the pH in forested streams lowered to almost 5 during spates. Standard bioindicator metrics were unable to detect the changes in assemblage structure between disturbed and forested streams. In general, our results indicate that tropical montane headwater streams are complex and heterogeneous ecosystems with low invertebrate densities. We also found that some amount of disturbance, i.e. patchy deforestation, can lead at least initially to an increase in macroinvertebrate taxa richness of these streams.

Data compilation on the biological response to ocean acidification: environmental and experimental context of data sets and related literature

The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

Sediment core-top GDGT data from the Arctic, the North Pacific and the Southern Ocean

TEX86 (TetraEther indeX of tetraethers consisting of 86 carbon atoms) is a sea surface temperature (SST) proxy based on the distribution of archaeal isoprenoid glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs). In this study, we appraise the applicability of TEX86 and TEX86L in subpolar and polar regions using surface sediments. We present TEX86 and TEX86L data from 160 surface sediment samples collected in the Arctic, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific. Most of the SST estimates derived from both TEX86 and TEX86L are anomalously high in the Arctic, especially in the vicinity of Siberian river mouths and the sea ice margin, plausibly due to additional archaeal contributions linked to terrigenous input. We found unusual GDGT distributions at five sites in the North Pacific. High GDGT-0/crenarchaeol and GDGT-2/crenarchaeol ratios at these sites suggest a substantial contribution of methanogenic and/or methanotrophic archaea to the sedimentary GDGT pool here. Apart from these anomalous findings, TEX86 and TEX86L values in the surface sediments from the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific do usually vary with overlaying SSTs. In these regions, the sedimentary TEX86-SST relationship is similar to the global calibration, and the derived temperature estimates agree well with overlaying annual mean SSTs at the sites. However, there is a systematic offset between the regional TEX86L-SST relationships and the global calibration. At these sites, temperature estimates based on the global TEX86L calibration are closer to summer SSTs than annual mean SSTs. This finding suggests that in these subpolar settings a regional TEX86L calibration may be a more suitable equation for temperature reconstruction than the global calibration.

Getting to the point: The influence of communicative intent on the kinematics of pointing gestures

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Left to right: Kim de Mutsert, Nicole Poret, and Sharon Ewe taking a break during sampling, Taylor Slough

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation through the Florida Coastal Everglades Long-Term Ecological Research program under Cooperative Agreements #DBI-0620409 and #DEB-9910514. This image is made available for non-commercial or educational use only.

Growth and photosynthesis of a diatom Cylindrotheca closterium grown under elevated CO2 in the presence of solar UV radiation

The combination of elevated CO2 and the increased acidity in surface oceans is likely to have an impact on photosynthesis via its effects on inorganic carbon speciation and on the overall energetics of phytoplankton. Exposure to UV radiation (UVR) may also have a role in the response to elevated CO2 and acidification, due to the fact that UVR may variously impact on photosynthesis and because of the energy demand of UVR defense. The cell may gain energy by down-regulating the CO2 concentrating mechanism, which may lead to a greater ability to cope with UVR and/or higher growth rates. In order to clarify the interplay of cell responses to increasing CO2 and UVR, we investigated the photosynthetic response of the marine and estuarine diatom Cylindrotheca closterium f. minutissima cultured at either 390 (ambient) or 800 (elevated) ppmv CO2, while exposed to solar radiation with or without UVR (UVR, 280-400 nm). After a 6 day acclimation period, the growth rate of cells was little affected by elevated CO2 and no obvious correlation with the radiation dose (for both PAR and PAR + UV treatments) could be detected. However, the relative electron transport rate was reduced and was more sensitive to UVR in cells main - tained at elevated CO2 as compared to cells cultured at ambient CO2. The CO2 concentrating mechanism was down regulated at 800 ppmv CO2, but was apparently not completely switched off. These data are discussed with respect to their significance in the context of global climate change.

Opinion: Can coalescent models explain deep divergences in the diatoms and argue for the acceptance of paraphyletic taxa at all taxonomic hierarchies?

Although ancestral polymorphisms and incomplete lineage sorting are commonly used at the population level, increasing reports of these models have been invoked and tested to explain deep radiations. Hypotheses are put forward for ancestral polymorphisms being the likely reason for paraphyletic taxa at the class level in the diatoms based on an ancient rapid radiation of the entire groups. Models for ancestral deep coalescence are invoked to explain paraphyly and molecular evolution at the class level in the diatoms. Other examples at more recent divergences are also documented. Discussion as to whether or not paraphyletic groups seen in the diatoms at all taxonomic levels should be recognized is provided. The continued use of the terms centric and pennate diatoms is substantiated with additional evidence produced to support their use in diatoms both as descriptive terms for both groups and as taxonomic groups for the latter because new morphological evidence from the auxospores justifies the formal classification of the basal and core araphids as new subclasses of pennate diatoms in the Class Bacillariophyceae. Keys for higher levels of the diatoms showing how the terms centrics and araphid diatoms can be defined are provided.