Indústria de máquinas agrícolas no Brasil: um modelo para estimação da demanda de tratores para o triênio 2016 – 2018

O objetivo desta dissertação foi estimar a demanda de tratores agrícolas para o mercado brasileiro no triênio 2016-2018, utilizando-se para isto de técnicas de econometria de séries temporais, neste caso, modelos univariados da classe ARIMA e SARIMA e ou multivariados SARIMAX. Justifica-se esta pesquisa quando se observa a indústria de máquinas agrícolas no Brasil, dados os ciclos econômicos e outros fatores exógenos aos fundamentos econômicos da demanda, onde esta enfrenta muitos desafios. Dentre estes, a estimação de demanda se destaca, pois exerce forte impacto, por exemplo, no planejamento e custo de produção de curto e médio prazo, níveis de inventários, na relação com fornecedores de materiais e de mão de obra local, e por consequência na geração de valor para o acionista. Durante a fase de revisão bibliográfica foram encontrados vários trabalhos científicos que abordam o agronegócio e suas diversas áreas de atuação, porém, não foram encontrados trabalhos científicos publicados no Brasil que abordassem a previsão da demanda de tratores agrícolas no Brasil, o que serviu de motivação para agregar conhecimento à academia e valor ao mercado através deste. Concluiu-se, após testes realizados com diversos modelos que estão dispostos no texto e apêndices, que o modelo univariado SARIMA (15,1,1) (1,1,1) cumpriu as premissas estabelecidas nos objetivos específicos para escolha do modelo que melhor se ajusta aos dados, e foi escolhido então, como o modelo para estimação da demanda de tratores agrícolas no Brasil. Os resultados desta pesquisa apontam para uma demanda de tratores agrícolas no Brasil oscilando entre 46.000 e 49.000 unidades ano entre os anos de 2016 e 2018.

Barriers to entry and development

This paper analyzes the effect of an accountability system in the Brazilian college market. For each discipline, colleges were assigned a grade that depended on the scores of their students on the ENC, an annual mandatory exam. Those grades were then disclosed to the public, giving applicants information about college quality. The system also established rewards and penalties based on the colleges’ grades. I find that the ENC had a substantial effect on different measures of college quality, such as faculty education and the proportion of full-time faculty. The detailed information from this unique dataset and the fact that the ENC started being required for different disciplines in different years allow me to control for time-specific effects, thus minimizing the bias caused by policy endogeneity. Indeed, I find strong evidence on the importance of controlling for time-specific effects: estimates of the impact of the ENC on college quality more than double when I do not take those effects into account. The ENC also affects positively the ratio between applicants and vacancies, and it decreases the faculty and the entering class sizes. The results suggest that its introduction fostered competition and favored colleges entering the market.

A corretagem de imóveis no Rio Grande do Norte: das práticas históricas à emergência como segmento integrante da fração imobiliária do capital

This research proposed to question the development of what was defined as historical practices (commercial, social and political institutions), of the economic activity of the real estate brokerage in the Rio Grande do Norte from the progressive institutionalization of economic agents - individuals (realtors) and legal (real estate) - based on two main approaches: a) the development of economic activity as an integral segment of a fraction of capital (POULANTZAs, 1985; LESSA, 1981). This work set out from a socio-historical approach of the historical practices development the of real estate brokerage in Brazil started in the Southeast, especially in the cities of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo as a result of the "expansion of capitalist relations by the housing sector" (RIBEIRO , 1996). especially the real estate capital ; b) the historical development of relations between labor and capital within the activity, in other words, the development of the relationship between realtors and Real Estate in relation to "group of interests" and their "collective actions" (OFFE, 1984). These historical practices are defined in this research as: 1) mercantile practices, times when there was no distinction between the activity of real estate brokerage and other forms of mercantile capital; 2) social practices, which began in the 1930s, when agents of real estate are to be distinguished from each other within the activity through Taylorist division of labor between workers realtors and developers of real estate; 3) political and institutional practices, initiated in 1962, characterized by State action, in the individualization and distinction of the agents of real estate brokerage as socioprofessional category regulated throughout Brazil by Law 4.116/62 and 6.530/78. The results achieved by the present study showed that in Rio Grande do Norte, due to the specifics as to the peripheral processes of urbanization of the constitution of the land market, as well as the process of conservative modernization of the oligarchic State from the 1960s (CLEMENTINE, 1995; FERREIRA, 1996, 2010, TRINDADE, 2004), the State was led to the development of a late manifestation of the historical practices of real estate brokerage. In other words, it was a process in which historical practices, in particular social practices, not fully developed, mitigating, thus the perception of realtors from his position in the process of exploitation of labor by the Real Estate. And, as a result, of their collective interests front of them.

Protagonismo juvenil: uma avaliação do programa agente jovem de desenvolvimento humano na cidade de Natal RN (2006/2007).

This paper presents a critical rescue of the term youth, while simultaneously is presented as the lifetime of between 15 and 24 years. Rescue two features in the literature. The first considers youth as a transition period and the second phase work that from a predisposition to rebellion. Discusses the design plural of that term, youth recital to this social and historical aspects of different societies to which it relates and highlights the importance of realizing the diversity of it. Where the object of investigation, the Young Agent Program, the overall objective of the study is to evaluate the effectiveness of the actions of the Young Agent Program for Human Development in Natal-RN. Specifically aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the Young Agent Program: a) as an enhancer of the integration of young people in social spaces of family, school and community, b) as to (re) insertion and the incorporation of issues related to health in adolescence, and c ) regarding the work of young people as multipliers of the actions of the program. With regard to the methodological procedures presents a review of the literature on youth, and the categories of human development, leadership and evaluation of youth policies for the construction of theoretical and analytical approach, using documentary data collection in the Municipal Labor and Social Services - SEMT on the Young Agent Program, and interviews with actors involved in the program. Finally, evaluates the effectiveness of the Young Agent Program from the perspective of participants

Desenvolvimento e autonomia das mulheres: uma avaliação do POPMR na região oeste potiguar - 2008/2012

The dissertation evaluates about Rural Women s Productive Organization Program effectiveness of Western Rio Grande do Norte(2008-2012). Specifically, it has aimed to: 1) Describe about Rural Women s Productive Organization Program characteristics in Western Potiguar Region; 2) Investigate which social economic changes the program has caused in Rural Women s lives from Western Potiguar Region; 3) Evaluate whether women s participation in the feminist social movement has contributed in order to facilitate access to the program; 4) evaluate whether rural women s participation from western Potiguar region in POPMR has provoked some questions in relation to labor sexual division in policy all female users or whether it has amplified their capacities for their economical autonomy conquest. The evaluation has been as reference the development concept as freedom according to Amartya Sen (2000) and labor sex division sustained by separation and hierarchy activities performed by men and women according to Kergoat (2009). The qualitative character investigation was made up by a bibliographical and documental research, semi-structured interviews and focal group. The interviews with female mediator agents and female public managers have demonstrated the paths how to create the program by explaining the difficulties and possibilities. The research was concluded with focal groups that had accessed POPMR in western region. With the methodological instruments used, it was possible to achieve the results: The research data show that POPMR has contributed for the region development specifically by expanding rural women s capacities. However, there are still some difficulties which could be overcome with a state actualization, as policies for home labor and home labor care socialization. In this way, the infrastructure construction for production and reproduction must be based on a kind of legislation for a small production which are indispensable elements for a bigger effective policy for women in a rural environment

Rodando a bolsinha: dinheiro e relações de prostituição

In this work a series of discussions is made on the relationship between money and prostitution in a way of overcoming its merely economic aspects, in the perception of both being social, cultural and historical phenomena, and taking them as symbols, whose study aids to unveil the reality. In this context it is looked for revealing its forms and contents to make it possible to understand them beyond the rationality, calculability and mathematical elements presents in them; beyond apparentness, taking them in their complexity. The discussions encompass theoretical elements, based especially on Georg Simmel s theoretical analyses, allied to a specific empirical frame that regards the life experience of the women of Praia do Meio, pedaço of the city of Natal-RN-Brazil, where the data were collected from. Fundamentally, prostitution is perceived as an exchange activity, which is not depleted in the economic elements, but, contrarily, starts on them and surpasses them in diverse aspects. It deals about a money-mediated relationship between human beings that possesses in itself a full complexity, which demands an accurate and keen attention to be comprehended. Since money has transformed the world and the men and women in it, the discussions in the text are conducted in a direction to attempt to encircle and understand the relationship between money and prostitution. Prostitution, in turn, aids to understand such a transformation as it is also a symbol of our times and it makes us to face the true essence of our society: the transformation of human beings into merchandise, into negotiable objects. In the money-based society it is possible to picture the phenomenon of double prostitution: negotiation of the human being, through labor, and negotiation of sex, the last being dramatically stigmatized and the former strongly encouraged. This may be demonstrating that the paid sex is, in the money-ruled society, a limit of commercialization, widely accepted provided it is camouflaged and surrounded by an aura of sensuality and legitimacy

Expansão canavieira e ocupação formal em empresas sucroalcooleiras do Centro-Sul do Brasil, entre 2007 e 2009

Considerando-se a região Centro-Sul do Brasil e com base nos dados do Ministério do Trabalho e Emprego e do Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento, comparou-se a evoluçãoda produção sucroalcooleira comonúmero e tipos de pessoas formalmente ocupadas em empresas do setor, de 2007 a 2009. Nas empresas dedicadas ao cultivo da cana-de-açúcar, o número de pessoas ocupadas caiu nesses três anos, enquanto aumentava nas empresas dedicadas à produção de açúcareetanol.Quantoàscategoriasdeocupação,constatou-seaumentononúmero de pessoas ocupadas em atividades industriais, administrativas, de apoio ou não sucroalcooleiras, enquanto diminuíam as pessoas ocupadas na agricultura. Neste caso, houve redução dos trabalhadores canavieiros não qualificados e crescimento dos trabalhadores da mecanização agrícola, fatos associados à intensificação da adoção da colheita mecânica de cana-de-açúcar. Não ocorreu mudança expressiva na sazonalidade de emprego dos trabalhadores canavieiros não qualificados, que permaneceu muito alta. O aumento mais intenso da produção do que do número de pessoas ocupadas refletiu em indicadores de produtividade, com crescimento da relação da produção de cana-de-açúcar, tanto com o total de pessoas ocupadas, quanto com o número de trabalhadores canavieiros não qualificados. Também foi constatada redução significativa na relação desse grupo de trabalhadores com a área colhida com cana-de-açúcar.

Crescimento econômico e restrição externa da economia brasileira: uma análise do padrão das exportações em relação ao BRIC e do Sistema de Inovação do Brasil (1980-2012)

This Master s Thesis aims to use the theoretical models of growth with restricted balance of payments, specifically Kaldor (1970) and Thirlwall (1979) models, to analyze the behavior and the pattern of specialization of Brazilian exports and imports in the last years. It is observed that, in some periods, the pattern of specialization has contributed in restricting long-term growth of the Brazilian economy. It has been hypothesized that overall this is due to lack of structural transformation policies. To achieve this goal, it analyzed the performance of Brazilian exports and imports disaggregating them according to their technological content. The basis for comparison was a group of countries to which Brazil is inserted in, the BRIC. In this regard, the work is a comparative analysis by using descriptive statistics. It is concluded that the low rate of GDP growth experienced by Brazil since the 1980s can be explained in part by the decoupling of the Brazilian National Innovation System (NIS) and the Brazilian productive structure. This would be reducing the income elasticity of exports and raising imports, causing a pattern of specialization intensive primary commodities and labor and low-skill labor

O pedagogo como agente de transformação social para além dos muros escolares

This thesis concerns the problem about the pedagogue actuation in the social education into no scholars places. It search to understand the context and the social pedagogue role to his praxis and formation that enlarger the possibilities of the social educative practices into no scholars places. In this direction, we developed an investigation about the actuation of the pedagogues-educators in Natal city, in the 2007-2010 periods, into Municipal Secretary of the Labor and Social Assistance (SEMTAS). Considering that pedagogues are regularly attached in social educators profession as municipals public employees, we re the objective to evaluate their role into the social executed in the no scholars places, with the focus in the environmental dimensions of theirs work s places, pedagogical organization, institutional management and the professional formation. It privileged in this research the Specialized Reference Center of Social Assistance II (CREAS II), the Passages Houses I, II and III, the Social-Educative Measures in Open Environment Execution Program of Natal city (PENSEMA) and the Pitimbú Educational Center (CEDUC-Pitimbú). To realize this study it developed a research with qualitative nature by critic ethnography approach privileging those information collected with the social pedagogue-educators of the mentioned places. Through the methodological procedures adopted; beyond the bibliographical review we remarked the documental research, the semi-structured interview, the questionnaires-routes and the field observations. The analytical results revealed that the politics to the social education in Brazil historically came been dimensioned by the fight of social movements demanding the fundamental rights to the excluded people; that the SEMTAS politics of social education present a relative basic social protection to the excluded children and young people specially into law view; that the politics of social education in Natal city it s close of the logic of sanitarian attention about the disadvantaged groups; that the conceptual, methodological and formatives fragilities needs to the social pedagogues-educators praxis into non scholars places made difficult the operation capacity of a educative proposition anchored in a institutional action guided by the idea of emancipator education; that the SEMTAS take face several difficulties to developed a web assistance as preview in the reception proposition elaborated by the social pedagogues-educators. However in despite the tensions we remarked the value of this potentiality to the non scholar social education in her attempt to constitute herself in a legitimate space to the pedagogue professional actuation. In despite the obstacles to work and formation quotidian, across those non scholar spaces in the municipalities institutes to the social politics, it demonstrated personal sensibility and professional creativity in learning mediations and educative action to the children and younger derived from exclusion process and the social iniquities

Fertility Rates Following Fixed-Time Artificial Insemination in Dairy Heifers in a Practical Progesterone-Based Protocol

Background: In bovines, more efficient management practices are important for maximizing profitability. In order to increase the pregnancy rates in artificial insemination (AI) programs, several hormonal protocols were developed to synchronize the follicular wave and the moment of ovulation in beef and dairy cattle. In dairy cattle, detection of estrus can be difficult due to a number of factors including the incidence of silent estrus. Hormonal treatments designed to control both luteal and follicular function has permitting efficient synchronizations of time of ovulation. Thus, the AI can be performed in a large number of animals on a fixed schedule without the need for detection of estrus. Using these management techniques, the fixed-time artificial insemination (TAI) can overcome the problem of accurate estrus detection and help in reducing the incidence of repeat breeding. In addition, with TAI in cattle operations, it is possible to facilitate management practices and commercialization, and to reduce the time and semen wasting with animals inseminated at incorrect times. The investigation of practical and efficient TAI protocols is important for reducing the labor and animal handling of TAI in dairy cattle, as well as for increasing the profitability of the cattle management system. This study was carried out in order to investigate the effectiveness of TAI in dairy heifers treated with a practical progesterone-based protocol.Materials, Methods & Results: This experiment was conducted at the university farm located in southwestern Brazil, during May 2009. Thirty-nine cycling crossbred dairy heifers were employed in this study. All animals received a single intramuscular injection of estradiol benzoate and intravaginal progesterone releasing device in a random stage of the estrous cycle (Day 0). on day 7 the animals were treated with PGF2a analogue and on day 9 the device was removed. Forty-eight hours after the device removal (day 11) a synthetic analogue of GnRH was administered and the animals were fixed-time artificially inseminated at the time of GnRH injection. The inseminations were performed using four different batches from the same Holstein bull. Among the heifers that were synchronized (87.2%), 30.8% ovulated until 24 h after TAI and 56.4% ovulated between 24 and 32 h after TAI. The conception rate was 61.5%. No effects of ovulation time in conception rates were detected. The conception rate from heifers that ovulated until 24 h after TAI was 58.3% and from heifers that ovulated between 24 and 32 h after TAI was 77.3%. The mean of ovulatory follicle in heifers that ovulated until 24 h was 14.3 mm and in heifers that ovulated between 24 and 32 h was 11.9 mm.Discussion: Taking together, the findings of the present study, along with those of others, emphasize the concept that development of practical methods for TAI offers significant advantages to dairy producers if conception rates are close or greater to those obtained after breeding at detected estrus. Thus, the results of the present study reinforce the possibility of making dairy cattle production more cost-effective using TAI. In conclusion, with the progesterone-based TAI protocol of the present experiment all synchronized animals ovulated up to 32 h after GnRH+TAI and no effects of ovulation time related to conception rate was detected. The exogenous control of luteal and follicular development facilitated the reproductive management and animal handling. Also, inseminating the heifers at the moment of GnRH injection in a progesterone-based TAI protocol is a practical strategy and provided satisfactory results regarding ovulation and conception rates in dairy heifers.

Hipertensão arterial e fatores de risco em servidores atendidos pelo departamento de assistência da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

Systemic arterial hypertension is a multifactorial disease that contributes to the country´s high cardiovascular morbi-mortality rates. Considering that hypertension affects individuals in their most productive age while facing work and living risk factors, it is important to investigate its occurrence and predisposing factors in different occupational segments. The objective of this study was to identify the prevalence of hypertension among workers attended to in a medical service of a public university, their hypertension levels, the risk factors present, and their knowledge of the factors that influence the arterial pressure. The epidemiologic study was conducted in the Health Department of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte with 102 workers that sought care in the medical clinic during the months of March to May 2009. Data were collected by means of a questionnaire and measurements of systolic and diastolic arterial pressure (SAP and DAP) that were classified in stages according to the Brazilian Society of Hypertension and the degree of risk for cardiovascular events according to the criteria of the Brazilian Society for Cardiology. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. The workers were, on average, 54 years of age; the majority (67%) was male and had primary or middle educational level; they worked mainly in supplemental units and deanship offices conducting different functions such as security guards, administrative assistants, health auxiliaries and constructions workers; 48 (47%) of the workers identified themselves as hypertensive for 8 years on average, with the majority executing hard labor and administrative functions. Among the workers with hypertension, the number of the pressure levels classified as pre-hypertensive, stage I and II were: (12% in the SAP and 20% in the DAP); (16% in the SAP and 9% in the DAP); and (15% in the SAP and 5% in the DAP), respectively. The workers that did not identify themselves as hypertensive presented classifications with greater frequencies were: normal (16% in the SAP and 30% in the DAP); and pre-hypertensive (21% in the SAP and 16% in the DAP). The risk factors identified in more than 50% of the workers were: tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption and indices of being overweight, although physical activities are also present. Of the 48 workers diagnosed as hypertensive, those that had 5 risk factors present and limitrophic pressure levels (12%), in stage I hypertension (16%) and stage II hypertension (15¨%) were categorized as being in high risk for vascular events. The number of workers that indicated they had knowledge of the factors that influence their hypertension was less than 39% for each factor. It is concluded that there is a high prevalence of systemic arterial hypertension in the university workers, even amongst those already under treatment. They constitute a population at risk considering their age group, their work functions, and their inadequate life habits. Health care of these hypertensive workers that seek attention in the Health Department is an important aspect of the internal workers health policy in the institution. Educational interventions are recommended for the improvement of quality of life and of work in these workers

A precarização do trabalho do enfermeiro na estratégia saúde da família: contribuição ao debate

This study makes an analysis of the work of nurse of the, uncovering the meaning of work and of precarious work for the nurse. aims to analyze the forms of precariousness of work of the nurse of Family Health Strategy the municipality of Pau dos Ferros-RN, Brazil. This is a qualitative study with analysis of the categories that emerged from search through dialog with the authors studied in theoretical framework of the sense of human work, the world of work actual and the precariousness of work in health. Used if the methodology of thematic oral history and semi-structured interview as an instrument for data collection and information. Participated 07 nurses of. There was predominance of females, with civil state married, with age between 29 and 47 years, inserted as nurses in Family Health Strategy 1 to 9 years. All referred satisfaction with work. Emerged 02 main meanings of work, whichever the design of work as a source of human and practical transforming of reality, with the sense of perform an action by the individual facilitator and suffers change. Include the precarious work not only as the absence of links labor and social protection, unlike the thought of the Ministry of Health, similar to the design of the study, the precariousness understood yet as the absence of participation of workers in the spaces work management and running of the work and the absence of structural conditions and infra-structural where the work process takes place. evidenced the totality of nurses inserted in Family Health Strategy by public tender. Refer have labor rights guaranteed. Don´t include under which legal arrangements are governed. The researched reality does not have a policy desprecarização nursing work of Family Health Strategy. Concluded the municipality presents progress and setbacks for the precariousness of work of the nurse of Family Health Strategy. The collective work in health is a challenge in researched reality and the policy of desprecarização of the work of the management of education and work was not evidenced. Despite the implementation of the public tender these professionals have a degree of precariousness of work, with the accumulation gradient of responsibilities, some lack of working conditions in structural aspects, infra-structural and means and instruments

Metodologia de implantação da construção enxuta: estudo de caso em construtora de porte médio

In recent years, the Brazilian construction industry has gone by changes like currency stability, increasing competition, shortage of skilled labor and increasing quality importance required by the customer, who made the sector companies seek solutions through new management practices in order to become more efficient. A alternative to these management practices is known as Lean Construction which is derived from the Toyota System Production. Lean Construction main goals are to reduce parts of activities that do not add value, increase product value by considering customer needs, reduce variability and production cycle time, simplify process by reducing the number of parts or steps, increase the flexibility in the product execution and transparency process, focus the control on overall process, introduce continuous improvement process, maintain a balance between improvements in flows and conversions and seek to learn from practices adopted by competitors. However, the construction industry is characterized by having nomadic activity, which undertakes an unique product with high cost of production and big inertia for behavioral change, making it difficult to implement the philosophy of lean construction in companies. In this sense, the main objective of this study is to develop a methodology for implementation of the principles of Lean Construction. The method of implementing the proposed management system was designed with the aid of 5W2H tool, and the implementation process is divided into three phases. The first one aims to know in a macro way the current operation of construction, identify who is its target audience and what are the products and services offered to the Market. The second phase aims to describe what actions should be taken and which documents are needed to be created or modified; finally, the third step goal consists in how to control and monitor established processes, where through Strategic Planning the company goals would be set along with their respective targets and indicators in order to keep the system working, aiming for continuous improvement with focus on the customer. This methodology was conceived as a case study analyzing a medium size construction with more than 18 years of activity and certified for almost 10 years with ISO9001 and level A in PBQP-H. We also conclude that this implementation process can be used in any developer and / or builder

Relações entre mídia e lazer:o capitalismo, os meios e a apropriação do tempo livre nas sociedades industrial e pós-industrial

This research aims to understand the relationship between media, capitalism and ownership of free time for leisure practices in industrial societies and postindustrial. Searching is thus a conceptual framework that takes into account the kind of ideology that naturalizes the relationship of leisure with the foundations of contemporary media, and the media only with leisure, forgetting their insertion in the labor and industrial relations in society. We intend to demonstrate that every mode of production, in the capitalist system, entails a mode of reproduction. Methodologically, this is a first approximation, from theoretical concerns already performed, constituting a theoretical research, bibliographic and descriptive character. The results of the text drives us to the conclusion that the work and leisure spheres tend to be less and less differentiated, since both remain as activities of product management with the same intellective protocols, based on information and communication technology, and that accordingly, the media favors an expansion of productive activity even during leisure time