A dynamic analysis of human welfare in a warming planet

Climate science indicates that climate stabilization requires low GHG emissions. Is thisconsistent with nondecreasing human welfare?Our welfare or utility index emphasizes education, knowledge, and the environment. Weconstruct and calibrate a multigenerational model with intertemporal links provided by education,physical capital, knowledge and the environment.We reject discounted utilitarianism and adopt, first, the Pure Sustainability Optimization (orIntergenerational Maximin) criterion, and, second, the Sustainable Growth Optimization criterion,that maximizes the utility of the first generation subject to a given future rate of growth. We applythese criteria to our calibrated model via a novel algorithm inspired by the turnpike property.The computed paths yield levels of utility higher than the level at reference year 2000 for allgenerations. They require the doubling of the fraction of labor resources devoted to the creation ofknowledge relative to the reference level, whereas the fractions of labor allocated to consumptionand leisure are similar to the reference ones. On the other hand, higher growth rates requiresubstantial increases in the fraction of labor devoted to education, together with moderate increasesin the fractions of labor devoted to knowledge and the investment in physical capital.

The genetic structure of metapopulations and conservation biology.

A range of models describing metapopulations is surveyed and their implications for conservation biology are described. An overview of the use of both population genetic elements and demographic theory in metapopulation models is given. It would appear that most of the current models suffer from either the use of over-simplified demography or the avoidance of selectively important genetic factors. The scale for which predictions are made by the various models is often obscure. A conceptual framework for describing metapopulations by utilising the concept of fitness of local populations is provided and some examples are given. The expectation that any general theory, such as that of metapopulations, can make useful predictions for particular problems of conservation is examined and compared with the prevailing 'state of the art' recommendations.

The changing relationship between commodity prices and equity prices in commodity exporting

We explore the linkage between equity and commodity markets, focusing in particular on its evolution over time. We document that a country's equity market valuehas significant out-of-sample predictive ability for the future global commodity priceindex for several primary commodity-exporting countries. The out-of-sample predictive ability of the equity market appears around 2000s. The results are robust to usingseveral control variables as well as firm-level equity data. Finally, our results indicatethat exchange rates are a better predictor of commodity prices than equity markets,especially at very short horizons.

El síndrome de burnout y los recortes sanitarios en los profesionales enfermeros del Hospital del Mar de Barcelona

El siguiente trabajo es un proyecto de un estudio cuantitativo observacional transversal sobreel personal enfermero del Hospital del Mar de Barcelona, con el objetivo de determinar de quéforman afectan la crisis económica y los recortes sanitarios en la aparición del síndrome delburnout y calidad de vida en los enfermeros/as. Este estudio puede servir de ayuda en unfuturo al diseño de una propuesta de intervención preventiva contextualizada a la situaciónlaboral que están viviendo los profesionales sanitarios de dicho hospital.Hipótesis: La crisis económica y los posteriores recortes sanitarios que han afectado a recursosmateriales, de personal y salariales, aumentan el síndrome de burnout en los profesionalesenfermeros.Metodología: Se utilizará un cuestionario como forma de recogida de datos, que constará dedos partes, la primera el MBI – HSS (Maslach Burnout Inventory)2, para poder identificar lossujetos con burnout, analizando tres dimensiones principales (cansancio emocional,despersonalización y realización personal). La segunda parte, es un cuestionario deelaboración propia, e incluirá variables de tipo sociodemográfico, además se realizaranpreguntas relacionadas con la crisis económica y los recortes sanitarios con tal decontextualizarlo al momento actual. Como medidas descriptivas se utilizarán la media, lamoda, desviación estándar y porcentaje de acuerdo al tipo de variable, estableciéndose laasociación entre variables mediante Spearman y Pearson. Para el análisis estadístico seutilizará el paquete estadístico SPSS versión 19 y triangulación con un grupo de profesionalesimplicados en el análisis de los resultados con tal de evaluar los riesgos psicosociales.

Evaluation of DuroTrim Vegetation Control Mats, HR-2090, 2002

The routine maintenance along Iowa's highways and roadways during the summer growing season is a time consuming and costly endeavor. Trimming around guardrail posts and delineator posts is especially costly due to the handwork required. Trimming costs account for approximately 50% of the shoulder mowing costs according to expense figures obtained from the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT), Office of Maintenance. The FY 2001 statewide trimming costs for the Iowa DOT was approximately $430,000 ($305,000 labor, $125,000 equipment and materials). This product would be required to perform well for 9-21 years, on average, in order to recoup the cost of installation. This includes the durability of the product, but not the cost of repair due to traffic damage, snowplow and wing damage, or damage caused by mowing operations. Maintenance costs associated with vegetation creep over the mats and repair costs would extend the required service life. As a result of resource realignment, the Iowa DOT roadside maintenance policy, for FY 2003 and the future, will be to eliminate trimming around delineator posts unless the reflector is obstructed. This policy change will effectively eliminate the need for weed control mats due to the significant reduction in trimming. The use of the weed control mats could be justified in areas that are dangerous to maintenance workers such as guardrail installations in high traffic areas. Because the delineator posts are further from the edge of the traveled roadway, there is a reduced risk to the maintenance workforce while hand trimming. Because the DuroTrim Vegetation Control Mats appear to have performed adequately in the field trial, they could be considered for use, where safety conditions warrant. That use should be limited, however, due to the considerable initial cost and changes in Iowa DOT roadside maintenance policy. Application should be limited to instances where the use of the DuroTrim Vegetation Control Mats would have a significant impact on the safety of the roadside maintenance workers. The cost savings, due to the elimination of the trimming and mowing alone, is not enough to justify their use in most situations at their current cost. The test sections will continue to be monitored periodically so that approximate service life can be determined.

A global view of cross-border migration

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of observed levels of migration using a quantitativemulti-sector model of the world economy calibrated to aggregate and firm-level data.Our framework features cross-country labor productivity differences, international trade, remittances,and a heterogeneous workforce. We compare welfare under the observed levels ofmigration to a no-migration counterfactual. In the long run, natives in countries that receiveda lot of migration -such as Canada or Australia- are better o due to greater product varietyavailable in consumption and as intermediate inputs. In the short run the impact of migrationon average welfare in these countries is close to zero, while the skilled and unskilled nativestend to experience welfare changes of opposite signs. The remaining natives in countries withlarge emigration flows -such as Jamaica or El Salvador- are also better off due to migration,but for a different reason: remittances. The welfare impact of observed levels of migration issubstantial, at about 5 to 10% for the main receiving countries and about 10% in countries withlarge incoming remittances. Our results are robust to accounting for imperfect transferabilityof skills, selection into migration, and imperfect substitution between natives and immigrants.

Worldwide Population Structure, Long-Term Demography, and Local Adaptation of Helicobacter pylori.

Helicobacter pylori is an important human pathogen associated with serious gastric diseases. Owing to its medical importance and close relationship with its human host, understanding genomic patterns of global and local adaptation in H. pylori may be of particular significance for both clinical and evolutionary studies. Here we present the first such whole genome analysis of 60 globally distributed strains, from which we inferred worldwide population structure and demographic history and shed light on interesting global and local events of positive selection, with particular emphasis on the evolution of San-associated lineages. Our results indicate a more ancient origin for the association of humans and H. pylori than previously thought. We identify several important perspectives for future clinical research on candidate selected regions that include both previously characterized genes (e.g., transcription elongation factor NusA and tumor necrosis factor alpha-inducing protein Tip 45;) and hitherto unknown functional genes.

Public-private sector wage differentials by type of contract: evidence from Spain

The article examines public-private sector wage differentials in Spain using microdata from the Structure of Earnings Survey (Encuesta de Estructura Salarial). When applying various decomposition techniques, we find that it is important to distinguish by gender and type of contract. Our results also highlight the presence of a positive wage premium for public sector workers that can be partially explained by their better endowment of characteristics, in particular by the characteristics of the establishment where they work. The wage premium is greater for female and fixed-term employees and falls across the wage distribution, being negative for more highly skilled workers.

The use of future-oriented knowledge in regional innovation processes: Research on knowledge generation, transfer and conversion

The importance of the regional level in research has risen in the last few decades and a vast literature in the fields of, for instance, evolutionary and institutional economics, network theories, innovations and learning systems, as well as sociology, has focused on regional level questions. Recently the policy makers and regional actors have also began to pay increasing attention to the knowledge economy and its needs, in general, and the connectivity and support structures of regional clusters in particular. Nowadays knowledge is generally considered as the most important source of competitive advantage, but even the most specialised forms of knowledge are becoming a short-lived resource for example due to the accelerating pace of technological change. This emphasizes the need of foresight activities in national, regional and organizational levels and the integration of foresight and innovation activities. In regional setting this development sets great challenges especially in those regions having no university and thus usually very limited resources for research activities. Also the research problem of this dissertation is related to the need to better incorporate the information produced by foresight process to facilitate and to be used in regional practice-based innovation processes. This dissertation is a constructive case study the case being Lahti region and a network facilitating innovation policy adopted in that region. Dissertation consists of a summary and five articles and during the research process a construct or a conceptual model for solving this real life problem has been developed. It is also being implemented as part of the network facilitating innovation policy in the Lahti region.

Public-private sector wage differentials by type of contract: evidence from Spain

The article examines public-private sector wage differentials in Spain using microdata from the Structure of Earnings Survey (Encuesta de Estructura Salarial). When applying various decomposition techniques, we find that it is important to distinguish by gender and type of contract. Our results also highlight the presence of a positive wage premium for public sector workers that can be partially explained by their better endowment of characteristics, in particular by the characteristics of the establishment where they work. The wage premium is greater for female and fixed-term employees and falls across the wage distribution, being negative for more highly skilled workers.

Evaluating the wage differential between public and private sectors in Brazil

This paper uses a rotating panel of households to analyze wage differentials between public and private sectors in Brazil. Focusing on the transition of individuals between jobs available in the public and private sectors and controlling for individual time invariant characteristics, we find evidence of small wage differentials in favor of the public sector.

A comparison of life satisfaction, job satisfaction, and happiness using demographic variables

This study examined the interrelationships among life satisfaction, job satisfaction, and happiness and the selected demographic variables of income, age, marital status, education, sex, job tenure, job title, type of school, and location of employment. Survey data were collected from 1,993 elementary, high school, and community college teachers in the southern Ontario area, representing ten public school boards, three Roman Catholic school boards and three community colleges. Several theories were utilized in developing thirteen hypotheses and eleven experimental hypotheses. A thorough review of the literature (to January, 1980) was undertaken and major conclusions noted. Hoppock's (1935) Job Satisfaction Measure, Gurin, Veroff, and Feld's (1960) Happiness Scale, and Converse and Robinson's (1965) Life Satisfaction Scale were used as the instrument. Chi-square analysis was employed as the statistical method. Indicative of the findings: the level of education taught was significantly related to all three organizational variables, sex was unrelated to life satisfaction though positively related to job satisfaction, and income was found not to be related to either happiness or life satisfaction. A minority of findings were contrary to hypothesized relationships. Specifically, age was found to be unrelated to any of the three organizational variables, and educational achievement was not significantly related to happiness. A model was developed to illustrate the interrelationships of the organizational and demographic variables. This model was designed specifically to reflect teacher attitudes, though it may have reasonable application for other relatively homogeneous groups of employees such as nurses, engineers, or social workers.

Économétrie, théorie des tests et philosophie des sciences

Dans ce texte, nous revoyons certains développements récents de l’économétrie qui peuvent être intéressants pour des chercheurs dans des domaines autres que l’économie et nous soulignons l’éclairage particulier que l’économétrie peut jeter sur certains thèmes généraux de méthodologie et de philosophie des sciences, tels la falsifiabilité comme critère du caractère scientifique d’une théorie (Popper), la sous-détermination des théories par les données (Quine) et l’instrumentalisme. En particulier, nous soulignons le contraste entre deux styles de modélisation - l’approche parcimonieuse et l’approche statistico-descriptive - et nous discutons les liens entre la théorie des tests statistiques et la philosophie des sciences.

Simulation-Based Finite-Sample Tests for Heteroskedasticity and ARCH Effects.

A wide range of tests for heteroskedasticity have been proposed in the econometric and statistics literature. Although a few exact homoskedasticity tests are available, the commonly employed procedures are quite generally based on asymptotic approximations which may not provide good size control in finite samples. There has been a number of recent studies that seek to improve the reliability of common heteroskedasticity tests using Edgeworth, Bartlett, jackknife and bootstrap methods. Yet the latter remain approximate. In this paper, we describe a solution to the problem of controlling the size of homoskedasticity tests in linear regression contexts. We study procedures based on the standard test statistics [e.g., the Goldfeld-Quandt, Glejser, Bartlett, Cochran, Hartley, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey, White and Szroeter criteria] as well as tests for autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH-type models). We also suggest several extensions of the existing procedures (sup-type of combined test statistics) to allow for unknown breakpoints in the error variance. We exploit the technique of Monte Carlo tests to obtain provably exact p-values, for both the standard and the new tests suggested. We show that the MC test procedure conveniently solves the intractable null distribution problem, in particular those raised by the sup-type and combined test statistics as well as (when relevant) unidentified nuisance parameter problems under the null hypothesis. The method proposed works in exactly the same way with both Gaussian and non-Gaussian disturbance distributions [such as heavy-tailed or stable distributions]. The performance of the procedures is examined by simulation. The Monte Carlo experiments conducted focus on : (1) ARCH, GARCH, and ARCH-in-mean alternatives; (2) the case where the variance increases monotonically with : (i) one exogenous variable, and (ii) the mean of the dependent variable; (3) grouped heteroskedasticity; (4) breaks in variance at unknown points. We find that the proposed tests achieve perfect size control and have good power.

Asymmetric Smiles, Leverage Effects and Structural Parameters.

In this paper, we characterize the asymmetries of the smile through multiple leverage effects in a stochastic dynamic asset pricing framework. The dependence between price movements and future volatility is introduced through a set of latent state variables. These latent variables can capture not only the volatility risk and the interest rate risk which potentially affect option prices, but also any kind of correlation risk and jump risk. The standard financial leverage effect is produced by a cross-correlation effect between the state variables which enter into the stochastic volatility process of the stock price and the stock price process itself. However, we provide a more general framework where asymmetric implied volatility curves result from any source of instantaneous correlation between the state variables and either the return on the stock or the stochastic discount factor. In order to draw the shapes of the implied volatility curves generated by a model with latent variables, we specify an equilibrium-based stochastic discount factor with time non-separable preferences. When we calibrate this model to empirically reasonable values of the parameters, we are able to reproduce the various types of implied volatility curves inferred from option market data.