Optimizing the renewable generation mix in the portuguese power system based on temporal and spatial diversity

Renewable energy sources (RES) have unique characteristics that grant them preference in energy and environmental policies. However, considering that the renewable resources are barely controllable and sometimes unpredictable, some challenges are faced when integrating high shares of renewable sources in power systems. In order to mitigate this problem, this paper presents a decision-making methodology regarding renewable investments. The model computes the optimal renewable generation mix from different available technologies (hydro, wind and photovoltaic) that integrates a given share of renewable sources, minimizing residual demand variability, therefore stabilizing the thermal power generation. The model also includes a spatial optimization of wind farms in order to identify the best distribution of wind capacity. This methodology is applied to the Portuguese power system.

Comparing wind generation profiles: A circular data approach

The importance of wind power energy for energy and environmental policies has been growing in past recent years. However, because of its random nature over time, the wind generation cannot be reliable dispatched and perfectly forecasted, becoming a challenge when integrating this production in power systems. In addition the wind energy has to cope with the diversity of production resulting from alternative wind power profiles located in different regions. In 2012, Portugal presented a cumulative installed capacity distributed over 223 wind farms [1]. In this work the circular data statistical methods are used to analyze and compare alternative spatial wind generation profiles. Variables indicating extreme situations are analyzed. The hour (s) of the day where the farm production attains its maximum daily production is considered. This variable was converted into circular variable, and the use of circular statistics enables to identify the daily hour distribution for different wind production profiles. This methodology was applied to a real case, considering data from the Portuguese power system regarding the year 2012 with a 15-minutes interval. Six geographical locations were considered, representing different wind generation profiles in the Portuguese system.In this work the circular data statistical methods are used to analyze and compare alternative spatial wind generation profiles. Variables indicating extreme situations are analyzed. The hour (s) of the day where the farm production attains its maximum daily production is considered. This variable was converted into circular variable, and the use of circular statistics enables to identify the daily hour distribution for different wind production profiles. This methodology was applied to a real case, considering data from the Portuguese power system regarding the year 2012 with a 15-minutes interval. Six geographical locations were considered, representing different wind generation profiles in the Portuguese system.

Deteção de avarias na caixa de engrenagens de aerogeradores

Ao longo dos últimos anos tem-se assistido a um forte desenvolvimento e crescimento do número de parques eólicos instalados no mundo, o que leva a que seja necessário o incremento de ferramentas que permitam aperfeiçoar os sistemas de monitorização e controlo atualmente existentes. Por outro lado, não se deve deixar de ter em conta os custos elevados de operação e manutenção dos sistemas eólicos bem como o facto de os aerogeradores estarem localizadas em locais remotos ou offshore, o que faz aumentar os custos associados à sua exploração. A dissertação nasce da intenção clara do mercado em apostar na supervisão e previsão de avarias graves, de forma a minimizar os encargos subjacentes. Este trabalho de dissertação visa a utilização de redes neuronais para criar uma ferramenta informática de previsão de avarias em caixas de engrenagens em aerogeradores. As redes neuronais são ferramentas informáticas ideais para trabalhar com muita informação, sendo que a sua aplicação depende da qualidade e quantidade dos dados. Para tal irá ser efetuado um estudo em um parque eólico, no qual se analisará as principais avarias detetadas bem como as grandezas que deverão integrar a construção desta rede neuronal. Assim sendo, a informação relativa às diversas máquinas existentes num parque, é de enorme importância para a definição e otimização da rede neuronal a construir. Os resultados obtidos neste trabalho com a aplicação de redes neuronais para a previsão de avarias em caixas de engrenagens do parque eólico de estudo, provam que é possível realizar uma deteção da avaria bem como uma constatação de que a reparação possa ter sido bem efetuada ou mal sucedida, podendo assim ser ajustados os programas de manutenção a efetuar e uma verificação das ações de reparação para sua validação.

Strategic planning of electricity systems: Integrating renewable energies

Tese de Doutoramento - Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Industrial e Sistemas (PDEIS)

Per-antenna rate and power control for MIMO layered architectures in the low- and high-power regimes

In a MIMO layered architecture, several codewordsare transmitted from a multiplicity of antennas. Although thespectral efficiency is maximized if the rates of these codewordsare separately controlled, the feedback rate within the linkadaptation loop is reduced if they are constrained to be identical.This poses a direct tradeoff between performance andfeedback overhead. This paper provides analytical expressionsthat quantify the difference in spectral efficiency between bothapproaches for arbitrary numbers of antennas. Specifically, thecharacterization takes place in the realm of the low- and highpowerregimes via expansions that are shown to have a widerange of validity.In addition, the possibility of adjusting the transmit powerof each codeword individually is considered as an alternative tothe separate control of their rates. Power allocation, however,turns out to be inferior to rate control within the context of thisproblem.

Parallel-Operating Three-Phase Voltage Source Inverters – Circulating CurrentModeling, Analysis and Mitigation

The maximum realizable power throughput of power electronic converters may be limited or constrained by technical or economical considerations. One solution to this problemis to connect several power converter units in parallel. The parallel connection can be used to increase the current carrying capacity of the overall system beyond the ratings of individual power converter units. Thus, it is possible to use several lower-power converter units, produced in large quantities, as building blocks to construct high-power converters in a modular manner. High-power converters realized by using parallel connection are needed for example in multimegawatt wind power generation systems. Parallel connection of power converter units is also required in emerging applications such as photovoltaic and fuel cell power conversion. The parallel operation of power converter units is not, however, problem free. This is because parallel-operating units are subject to overcurrent stresses, which are caused by unequal load current sharing or currents that flow between the units. Commonly, the term ’circulatingcurrent’ is used to describe both the unequal load current sharing and the currents flowing between the units. Circulating currents, again, are caused by component tolerances and asynchronous operation of the parallel units. Parallel-operating units are also subject to stresses caused by unequal thermal stress distribution. Both of these problemscan, nevertheless, be handled with a proper circulating current control. To design an effective circulating current control system, we need information about circulating current dynamics. The dynamics of the circulating currents can be investigated by developing appropriate mathematical models. In this dissertation, circulating current models aredeveloped for two different types of parallel two-level three-phase inverter configurations. Themodels, which are developed for an arbitrary number of parallel units, provide a framework for analyzing circulating current generation mechanisms and developing circulating current control systems. In addition to developing circulating current models, modulation of parallel inverters is considered. It is illustrated that depending on the parallel inverter configuration and the modulation method applied, common-mode circulating currents may be excited as a consequence of the differential-mode circulating current control. To prevent the common-mode circulating currents that are caused by the modulation, a dual modulator method is introduced. The dual modulator basically consists of two independently operating modulators, the outputs of which eventually constitute the switching commands of the inverter. The two independently operating modulators are referred to as primary and secondary modulators. In its intended usage, the same voltage vector is fed to the primary modulators of each parallel unit, and the inputs of the secondary modulators are obtained from the circulating current controllers. To ensure that voltage commands obtained from the circulating current controllers are realizable, it must be guaranteed that the inverter is not driven into saturation by the primary modulator. The inverter saturation can be prevented by limiting the inputs of the primary and secondary modulators. Because of this, also a limitation algorithm is proposed. The operation of both the proposed dual modulator and the limitation algorithm is verified experimentally.

The role of nuclear power in the future energy system

Currently widely accepted consensus is that greenhouse gas emissions produced by the mankind have to be reduced in order to avoid further global warming. The European Union has set a variety of CO2 reduction and renewable generation targets for its member states. The current energy system in the Nordic countries is one of the most carbon free in the world, but the aim is to achieve a fully carbon neutral energy system. The objective of this thesis is to consider the role of nuclear power in the future energy system. Nuclear power is a low carbon energy technology because it produces virtually no air pollutants during operation. In this respect, nuclear power is suitable for a carbon free energy system. In this master's thesis, the basic characteristics of nuclear power are presented and compared to fossil fuelled and renewable generation. Nordic energy systems and different scenarios in 2050 are modelled. Using models and information about the basic characteristics of nuclear power, an opinion is formed about its role in the future energy system in Nordic countries. The model shows that it is possible to form a carbon free Nordic energy system. Nordic countries benefit from large hydropower capacity which helps to offset fluctuating nature of wind power. Biomass fuelled generation and nuclear power provide stable and predictable electricity throughout the year. Nuclear power offers better energy security and security of supply than fossil fuelled generation and it is competitive with other low carbon technologies.

Impacts of increased levels of wind penetration on the Electric Power System of the Åland Islands

The application of VSC-HVDC technology throughout the world has turned out to be an efficient solution regarding a large share of wind power in different power systems. This technology enhances the overall reliability of the grid by utilization of the active and reactive power control schemes which allows to maintain frequency and voltage on busbars of the end-consumers at the required level stated by the network operator. This master’s thesis is focused on the existing and planned wind farms as well as electric power system of the Åland Islands. The goal is to analyze the wind conditions of the islands and appropriately predict a possible production of the existing and planned wind farms with a help of WAsP software program. Further, to investigate the influence of increased wind power it is necessary to develop a simulation model of the electric grid and VSC-HVDC system in PSCAD and examine grid response to different wind power production cases with respect to the grid code requirements and ensure the stability of the power system.

Economics of Hybrid Photovoltaic Power Plants

The global power supply stability is faced to several severe and fundamental threats, in particular steadily increasing power demand, diminishing and degrading fossil and nuclear energy resources, very harmful greenhouse gas emissions, significant energy injustice and a structurally misbalanced ecological footprint. Photovoltaic (PV) power systems are analysed in various aspects focusing on economic and technical considerations of supplemental and substitutional power supply to the constraint conventional power system. To infer the most relevant system approach for PV power plants several solar resources available for PV systems are compared. By combining the different solar resources and respective economics, two major PV systems are identified to be very competitive in almost all regions in the world. The experience curve concept is used as a key technique for the development of scenario assumptions on economic projections for the decade of the 2010s. Main drivers for cost reductions in PV systems are learning and production growth rate, thus several relevant aspects are discussed such as research and development investments, technical PV market potential, different PV technologies and the energetic sustainability of PV. Three major market segments for PV systems are identified: off-grid PV solutions, decentralised small scale on-grid PV systems (several kWp) and large scale PV power plants (tens of MWp). Mainly by application of ‘grid-parity’ and ‘fuel-parity’ concepts per country, local market and conventional power plant basis, the global economic market potential for all major PV system segments is derived. PV power plant hybridization potential of all relevant power technologies and the global power plant structure are analyzed regarding technical, economical and geographical feasibility. Key success criteria for hybrid PV power plants are discussed and comprehensively analysed for all adequate power plant technologies, i.e. oil, gas and coal fired power plants, wind power, solar thermal power (STEG) and hydro power plants. For the 2010s, detailed global demand curves are derived for hybrid PV-Fossil power plants on a per power plant, per country and per fuel type basis. The fundamental technical and economic potentials for hybrid PV-STEG, hybrid PV-Wind and hybrid PV-Hydro power plants are considered. The global resource availability for PV and wind power plants is excellent, thus knowing the competitive or complementary characteristic of hybrid PV-Wind power plants on a local basis is identified as being of utmost relevance. The complementarity of hybrid PV-Wind power plants is confirmed. As a result of that almost no reduction of the global economic PV market potential need to be expected and more complex power system designs on basis of hybrid PV-Wind power plants are feasible. The final target of implementing renewable power technologies into the global power system is a nearly 100% renewable power supply. Besides balancing facilities, storage options are needed, in particular for seasonal power storage. Renewable power methane (RPM) offers respective options. A comprehensive global and local analysis is performed for analysing a hybrid PV-Wind-RPM combined cycle gas turbine power system. Such a power system design might be competitive and could offer solutions for nearly all current energy system constraints including the heating and transportation sector and even the chemical industry. Summing up, hybrid PV power plants become very attractive and PV power systems will very likely evolve together with wind power to the major and final source of energy for mankind.

Exercise and Training at Altitudes: Physiological Effects and Protocols

An increase in altitude leads to a proportional fall in the barometric pressure, and a decrease in atmospheric oxygen pressure, producing hypobaric hypoxia that affects, in different degrees, all body organs, systems and functions. The chronically reduced partial pressure of oxygen causes that individuals adapt and adjust to physiological stress. These adaptations are modulated by many factors, including the degree of hypoxia related to altitude, time of exposure, exercise intensity and individual conditions. It has been established that exposure to high altitude is an environmental stressor that elicits a response that contributes to many adjustments and adaptations that influence exercise capacity and endurance performance. These adaptations include in crease in hemoglobin concentration, ventilation, capillary density and tissue myoglobin concentration. However, a negative effect in strength and power is related to a decrease in muscle fiber size and body mass due to the decrease in the training intensity. Many researches aim at establishing how training or living at high altitudes affects performance in athletes. Training methods, such as living in high altitudes training low, and training high-living in low altitudes have been used to research the changes in the physical condition in athletes and how the physiological adaptations to hypoxia can enhanceperformance at sea level. This review analyzes the literature related to altitude training focused on how physiological adaptations to hypoxic environments influence performance, and which protocols are most frequently used to train in high altitudes.

Wind generation's contribution to supporting peak electricity demand: meteorological insights

Wind generation’s contribution to meeting extreme peaks in electricity demand is a key concern for the integration of wind power. In Great Britain (GB), robustly assessing this contribution directly from power system data (i.e. metered wind-supply and electricity demand) is difficult as extreme peaks occur infrequently (by definition) and measurement records are both short and inhomogeneous. Atmospheric circulation-typing combined with meteorological reanalysis data is proposed as a means to address some of these difficulties, motivated by a case study of the extreme peak demand events in January 2010. A preliminary investigation of the physical and statistical properties of these circulation types suggests that they can be used to identify the conditions that are most likely to be associated with extreme peak demand events. Three broad cases are highlighted as requiring further investigation. The high-over-Britain anticyclone is found to be generally associated with very low winds but relatively moderate temperatures (and therefore moderate peak demands, somewhat in contrast to the classic low-wind cold snap that is sometimes apparent in the literature). In contrast, both longitudinally extended blocking over Scotland/Scandinavia and latitudinally extended troughs over western Europe appear to be more closely linked to the very cold GB temperatures (usually associated with extreme peak demands). In both of these latter situations, wind resource averaged across GB appears to be more moderate.

Climatology and predictability of the late summer stratospheric zonal wind turnaround over Vanscoy, Saskatchewan

A climatology of the late summer stratospheric zonal wind turnaround phenomenon is presented, with a particular focus on the behaviour over the Meteorological Service of Canada’s balloon-launching site at Vanscoy, Saskatchewan (52°N, 107°W). Turnaround refers to the change in sign of the zonal wind velocity and occurs twice each year at stratospheric mid-latitudes, in early spring and in late summer. The late summer turnaround is of particular interest to the high-altitude ballooning community because it offers the ideal conditions for launch, but it is also an interesting dynamical phenomenon in its own right. It is studied here using both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (MetO) analysis products as well as climate simulation data from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM). The phenomenon and its interannual variability are documented. The predictability of the late summer turnaround over Vanscoy is investigated using both statistical averages and autocorrelation analysis. From the statistical averages, it is found that during every year since 1993, the period from 26 August to 5 September has contained appropriate launch dates. From the autocorrelation analysis, it is found that stratospheric zonal wind anomalies can persist for a month or more during most of the summer, but there is a predictability horizon at the end of the summer — just before turnaround

Implications of the North Atlantic Oscillation for a UK–Norway renewable power system

UK wind-power capacity is increasing and new transmission links are proposed with Norway, where hydropower dominates the electricity mix. Weather affects both these renewable resources and the demand for electricity. The dominant large-scale pattern of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric variability is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), associated with positive correlations in wind, temperature and precipitation over northern Europe. The NAO's effect on wind-power and demand in the UK and Norway is examined, focussing on March when Norwegian hydropower reserves are low and the combined power system might be most susceptible to atmospheric variations. The NCEP/NCAR meteorological reanalysis dataset (1948–2010) is used to drive simple models for demand and wind-power, and ‘demand-net-wind’ (DNW) is estimated for positive, neutral and negative NAO states. Cold, calm conditions in NAO− cause increased demand and decreased wind-power compared to other NAO states. Under a 2020 wind-power capacity scenario, the increase in DNW in NAO− relative to NAO neutral is equivalent to nearly 25% of the present-day average rate of March Norwegian hydropower usage. As the NAO varies on long timescales (months to decades), and there is potentially some skill in monthly predictions, we argue that it is important to understand its impact on European power systems.

Verification of European subseasonal wind speed forecasts

Analysis of the forecasts and hindcasts from the ECMWF 32-day forecast model reveals that there is statistically significant skill in predicting weekly mean wind speeds over areas of Europe at lead times of at least 14–20 days. Previous research on wind speed predictability has focused on the short- to medium-range time scales, typically finding that forecasts lose all skill by the later part of the medium-range forecast. To the authors’ knowledge, this research is the first to look beyond the medium-range time scale by taking weekly mean wind speeds, instead of averages at hourly or daily resolution, for the ECMWF monthly forecasting system. It is shown that the operational forecasts have high levels of correlation (~0.6) between the forecasts and observations over the winters of 2008–12 for some areas of Europe. Hindcasts covering 20 winters show a more modest level of correlation but are still skillful. Additional analysis examines the probabilistic skill for the United Kingdom with the application of wind power forecasting in mind. It is also shown that there is forecast “value” for end users (operating in a simple cost/loss ratio decision-making framework). End users that are sensitive to winter wind speed variability over the United Kingdom, Germany, and some other areas of Europe should therefore consider forecasts beyond the medium-range time scale as it is clear there is useful information contained within the forecast.