Reconfiguration of supply chain network:an ISM-based roadmap to performance

Purpose: Short product life cycle and/or mass customization necessitate reconfiguration of operational enablers of supply chain (SC) from time to time in order to harness high levels of performance. The purpose of this paper is to identify the key operational enablers under stochastic environment on which practitioner should focus while reconfiguring a SC network. Design/methodology/approach: The paper used interpretive structural modeling (ISM) approach that presents a hierarchy-based model and the mutual relationships among the enablers. The contextual relationship needed for developing structural self-interaction matrix (SSIM) among various enablers is realized by conducting experiments through simulation of a hypothetical SC network. Findings: The research identifies various operational enablers having a high driving power towards assumed performance measures. In this regard, these enablers require maximum attention and of strategic importance while reconfiguring SC. Practical implications: ISM provides a useful tool to the SC managers to strategically adopt and focus on the key enablers which have comparatively greater potential in enhancing the SC performance under given operational settings. Originality/value: The present research realizes the importance of SC flexibility under the premise of reconfiguration of the operational units in order to harness high value of SC performance. Given the resulting digraph through ISM, the decision maker can focus the key enablers for effective reconfiguration. The study is one of the first efforts that develop contextual relations among operational enablers for SSIM matrix through integration of discrete event simulation to ISM. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

A techno-economic comparison of power production by biomass fast pyrolysis with gasification and combustion

This paper presents an assessment of the technical and economic performance of thermal processes to generate electricity from a wood chip feedstock by combustion, gasification and fast pyrolysis. The scope of the work begins with the delivery of a wood chip feedstock at a conversion plant and ends with the supply of electricity to the grid, incorporating wood chip preparation, thermal conversion, and electricity generation in dual fuel diesel engines. Net generating capacities of 1–20 MWe are evaluated. The techno-economic assessment is achieved through the development of a suite of models that are combined to give cost and performance data for the integrated system. The models include feed pretreatment, combustion, atmospheric and pressure gasification, fast pyrolysis with pyrolysis liquid storage and transport (an optional step in de-coupled systems) and diesel engine or turbine power generation. The models calculate system efficiencies, capital costs and production costs. An identical methodology is applied in the development of all the models so that all of the results are directly comparable. The electricity production costs have been calculated for 10th plant systems, indicating the costs that are achievable in the medium term after the high initial costs associated with novel technologies have reduced. The costs converge at the larger scale with the mean electricity price paid in the EU by a large consumer, and there is therefore potential for fast pyrolysis and diesel engine systems to sell electricity directly to large consumers or for on-site generation. However, competition will be fierce at all capacities since electricity production costs vary only slightly between the four biomass to electricity systems that are evaluated. Systems de-coupling is one way that the fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system can distinguish itself from the other conversion technologies. Evaluations in this work show that situations requiring several remote generators are much better served by a large fast pyrolysis plant that supplies fuel to de-coupled diesel engines than by constructing an entire close-coupled system at each generating site. Another advantage of de-coupling is that the fast pyrolysis conversion step and the diesel engine generation step can operate independently, with intermediate storage of the fast pyrolysis liquid fuel, increasing overall reliability. Peak load or seasonal power requirements would also benefit from de-coupling since a small fast pyrolysis plant could operate continuously to produce fuel that is stored for use in the engine on demand. Current electricity production costs for a fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system are 0.091/kWh at 1 MWe when learning effects are included. These systems are handicapped by the typical characteristics of a novel technology: high capital cost, high labour, and low reliability. As such the more established combustion and steam cycle produces lower cost electricity under current conditions. The fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system is a low capital cost option but it also suffers from relatively low system efficiency particularly at high capacities. This low efficiency is the result of a low conversion efficiency of feed energy into the pyrolysis liquid, because of the energy in the char by-product. A sensitivity analysis has highlighted the high impact on electricity production costs of the fast pyrolysis liquids yield. The liquids yield should be set realistically during design, and it should be maintained in practice by careful attention to plant operation and feed quality. Another problem is the high power consumption during feedstock grinding. Efficiencies may be enhanced in ablative fast pyrolysis which can tolerate a chipped feedstock. This has yet to be demonstrated at commercial scale. In summary, the fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system has great potential to generate electricity at a profit in the long term, and at a lower cost than any other biomass to electricity system at small scale. This future viability can only be achieved through the construction of early plant that could, in the short term, be more expensive than the combustion alternative. Profitability in the short term can best be achieved by exploiting niches in the market place and specific features of fast pyrolysis. These include: •countries or regions with fiscal incentives for renewable energy such as premium electricity prices or capital grants; •locations with high electricity prices so that electricity can be sold direct to large consumers or generated on-site by companies who wish to reduce their consumption from the grid; •waste disposal opportunities where feedstocks can attract a gate fee rather than incur a cost; •the ability to store fast pyrolysis liquids as a buffer against shutdowns or as a fuel for peak-load generating plant; •de-coupling opportunities where a large, single pyrolysis plant supplies fuel to several small and remote generators; •small-scale combined heat and power opportunities; •sales of the excess char, although a market has yet to be established for this by-product; and •potential co-production of speciality chemicals and fuel for power generation in fast pyrolysis systems.

Wind power forecasts using Gaussian processes and numerical weather prediction

Since wind at the earth's surface has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safe and economic use of wind energy. In this paper, we investigated a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: a Gaussian process (GP) combined with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model was applied to wind-power forecasting up to one day ahead. First, the wind-speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP, then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due to the turbine controlling strategy, wind power forecasts were realized by modeling the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output using a censored GP. To validate the proposed approach, three real-world datasets were used for model training and testing. The empirical results were compared with several classical wind forecast models, and based on the mean absolute error (MAE), the proposed model provides around 9% to 14% improvement in forecasting accuracy compared to an artificial neural network (ANN) model, and nearly 17% improvement on a third dataset which is from a newly-built wind farm for which there is a limited amount of training data. © 2013 IEEE.

Practical photovoltaic simulator with a cross tackling control strategy based on the first-hand duty cycle processing

This paper proposes a methodological scheme for the photovoltaic (PV) simulator design. With the advantages of a digital controller system, linear interpolation is proposed for precise fitting with higher computational efficiency. A novel control strategy that directly tackles two different duty cycles is proposed and implemented to achieve a full-range operation including short circuit (SC) and open circuit (OC) conditions. Systematic design procedures for both hardware and algorithm are explained, and a prototype is built. Experimental results confirm an accurate steady state performance under different load conditions, including SC and OC. This low power apparatus can be adopted for PV education and research with a limited budget.

Direction Finding Estimators of Cyclostationary Signals in Array Processing for Microwave Power Transmission

A solar power satellite is paid attention to as a clean, inexhaustible large- scale base-load power supply. The following technology related to beam control is used: A pilot signal is sent from the power receiving site and after direction of arrival estimation the beam is directed back to the earth by same direction. A novel direction-finding algorithm based on linear prediction technique for exploiting cyclostationary statistical information (spatial and temporal) is explored. Many modulated communication signals exhibit a cyclostationarity (or periodic correlation) property, corresponding to the underlying periodicity arising from carrier frequencies or baud rates. The problem was solved by using both cyclic second-order statistics and cyclic higher-order statistics. By evaluating the corresponding cyclic statistics of the received data at certain cycle frequencies, we can extract the cyclic correlations of only signals with the same cycle frequency and null out the cyclic correlations of stationary additive noise and all other co-channel interferences with different cycle frequencies. Thus, the signal detection capability can be significantly improved. The proposed algorithms employ cyclic higher-order statistics of the array output and suppress additive Gaussian noise of unknown spectral content, even when the noise shares common cycle frequencies with the non-Gaussian signals of interest. The proposed method completely exploits temporal information (multiple lag ), and also can correctly estimate direction of arrival of desired signals by suppressing undesired signals. Our approach was generalized over direction of arrival estimation of cyclostationary coherent signals. In this paper, we propose a new approach for exploiting cyclostationarity that seems to be more advanced in comparison with the other existing direction finding algorithms.

On a Stochastic Partial Differential Equation with a Noisy Term

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60H15, 60H40

Short-term wind power forecasting using Gaussian processes

Since wind has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safety and economics of wind energy utilization. In this paper, we investigate a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: one-day-ahead wind power forecasts were made with Gaussian Processes (GPs) applied to the outputs of a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. Firstly the wind speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP. Then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due the turbine controlling strategy, a Censored GP was used to model the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output. To validate the proposed approach, two real world datasets were used for model construction and testing. The simulation results were compared with the persistence method and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs); the proposed model achieves about 11% improvement in forecasting accuracy (Mean Absolute Error) compared to the ANN model on one dataset, and nearly 5% improvement on another.

Non-stationary stochastic inventory lot-sizing with emission and service level constraints in a carbon cap-and-trade system

Firms worldwide are taking major initiatives to reduce the carbon footprint of their supply chains in response to the growing governmental and consumer pressures. In real life, these supply chains face stochastic and non-stationary demand but most of the studies on inventory lot-sizing problem with emission concerns consider deterministic demand. In this paper, we study the inventory lot-sizing problem under non-stationary stochastic demand condition with emission and cycle service level constraints considering carbon cap-and-trade regulatory mechanism. Using a mixed integer linear programming model, this paper aims to investigate the effects of emission parameters, product- and system-related features on the supply chain performance through extensive computational experiments to cover general type business settings and not a specific scenario. Results show that cycle service level and demand coefficient of variation have significant impacts on total cost and emission irrespective of level of demand variability while the impact of product's demand pattern is significant only at lower level of demand variability. Finally, results also show that increasing value of carbon price reduces total cost, total emission and total inventory and the scope of emission reduction by increasing carbon price is greater at higher levels of cycle service level and demand coefficient of variation. The analysis of results helps supply chain managers to take right decision in different demand and service level situations.

Eco-efficiency considering the issue of heterogeneity among power plants

One of the main objectives in restructuring power industry is enhancing the efficiency of power facilities. However, power generation industry, which plays a key role in the power industry, has a noticeable share in emission amongst all other emission-generating sectors. In this study, we have developed some new Data Envelopment Analysis models to find efficient power plants based on less fuel consumption, combusting less polluting fuel types, and incorporating emission factors in order to measure the ecological efficiency trend. We then applied these models to measuring eco-efficiency during an eight-year period of power industry restructuring in Iran. Results reveal that there has been a significant improvement in eco-efficiency, cost efficiency and allocative efficiency of the power plants during the restructuring period. It is also shown that despite the hydro power plants look eco-efficient; the combined cycle ones have been more allocative efficient than the other power generation technologies used in Iran.

Parametrikus nyugdíjreformok és életciklus-munkakínálat (Parametric pension reforms and life-cycle labour supply)

A társadalombiztosítási nyugdíjrendszer finanszírozása pusztán a demográfiai folyamatok következtében is jelentős terhet ró majd a költségvetésére, amin a különböző parametrikus és paradigmatikus nyugdíjreformok enyhíthetnek. A reformok azonban hosszú távon olyan viselkedési, munkakínálati reakciókat válthatnak ki, amelyek alapvetően változtatják meg a költségvetési hatásokat. Az 1999 és 2009 között Magyarországon megfigyelhető átlagos munka- és nyugdíjkorprofilok bemutatása után arra tettünk kísérletet, hogy mikroökonómiai alapon határozzuk meg néhány alapvető parametrikus nyugdíjreformnak a férfiak életciklus-munkakínálatára gyakorolt hatását. A modell paramétereit a magyar gazdaság 1999 és 2009 közötti jellemzőinek megfelelően kalibráltuk. Eredményeink szerint a helyettesítési ráta csökkentése, a nyugdíjkorhatár emelése és a svájci indexálás árindexálásra cserélése összességében számottevően növeli az egyes képzettségi csoportok munkakínálatát, s a fiatalabb korosztályok javára csoportosítja át az életciklus-munkakínálatot, míg a nyugdíj kiszámításához figyelembe vett évek számának megváltoztatása nem hoz jelentős aggregált hatást, és nem jár a munkakínálat korcsoportok közötti átcsoportosításával. ____ Financing the social-security pension system will weigh heavily on the government budget in developed countries, merely through the projected demographic processes. The burden could be eased by various parametric and paradigmatic pension reforms, but in the long run such reforms may trigger behavioural, labour-supply responses, which may alter the budgetary effects fundamentally. Having described the average work and pension profiles in Hungary between 1999 and 2009, the authors use a microeconomic approach in an attempt to assess the effect of certain parametric pension reforms on the life-cycle labour supply of males. The parameters for the model were calibrated for the characteristics of the Hungarian economy. The results show that decreasing the replacement rate, increasing the retirement age and replacing Swiss indexation of pensions by price indexation cause a considerable increase in the labour supply of all education-level groups, whereas changing the number of years considered in computing pensions does not have a significant aggregate effect. While introducing price indexation increases the labour supply of all cohorts by the same amount, the other reforms reallocate the life-cycle labour supply, mainly towards younger age-groups.

Analyzing interrelated stochastic trend and seasonality on the example of energy trading data

The correct modelling of long- and short-term seasonality is a very interesting issue. The choice between the deterministic and stochastic modelling of trend and seasonality and their implications are as relevant as the case of deterministic and stochastic trends itself. The study considers the special case when the stochastic trend and seasonality do not evolve independently and the usual differencing filters do not apply. The results are applied to the day-ahead (spot) trading data of some main European energy exchanges (power and natural gas).

Analyzing interrelated stochastic trend and seasonality on the example of energy trading data

The correct modelling of long- and short-term seasonality is a very interesting issue. The choice between the deterministic and stochastic modelling of trend and seasonality and their implications are as relevant as the case of deterministic and stochastic trends itself. The study considers the special case when the stochastic trend and seasonality do not evolve independently and the usual differencing filters do not apply. The results are applied to the day-ahead (spot) trading data of some main European energy exchanges (power and natural gas).

Quantifying nitrogen cycling rates in freshwater marshes of the southern Everglades using nitrogen-15 tracer techniques

This dissertation research project addressed the question of how hydrologic restoration of the Everglades is impacting the nutrient dynamics of marsh ecosystems in the southern Everglades. These effects were analyzed by quantifying nitrogen (N) cycle dynamics in the region. I utilized stable isotope tracer techniques to investigate nitrogen uptake and cycling between the major ecosystem components of the freshwater marsh system. I recorded the natural isotopic signatures (δ15N and δ 13C) for major ecosystem components from the three major watersheds of the Everglades: Shark River Slough, Taylor Slough, and C-111 basin. Analysis of δ15 N and δ13C natural abundance data were used to demonstrate the spatial extent to which nitrogen from anthropogenic or naturally enriched sources is entering the marshes of the Everglades. In addition, I measured the fluxes on N between various ecosystem components at both near-canal and estuarine ecotone locations. Lastly, I investigated the effect of three phosphorus load treatments (0.00 mg P m-2, 6.66 mg P m-2, and 66.6 mg P m-2) on the rate and magnitude of ecosystem N-uptake and N-cycling. The δ15N and δ13C natural abundance data supported the hypothesis that ecosystem components from near-canal sites have heavier, more enriched δ 15N isotopic signatures than downstream sites. The natural abundance data also showed that the marshes of the southern Everglades are acting as a sink for isotopically heavier, canal-borne dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and a source for "new" marsh derived dissolved organic nitrogen (DON). In addition, the 15N mesocosm data showed the rapid assimilation of the 15N tracer by the periphyton component and the delayed N uptake by soil and macrophyte components in the southern Everglades.

Physical dynamic simulation of shipboard power system components in a distributed computational environment

Shipboard power systems have different characteristics than the utility power systems. In the Shipboard power system it is crucial that the systems and equipment work at their peak performance levels. One of the most demanding aspects for simulations of the Shipboard Power Systems is to connect the device under test to a real-time simulated dynamic equivalent and in an environment with actual hardware in the Loop (HIL). The real time simulations can be achieved by using multi-distributed modeling concept, in which the global system model is distributed over several processors through a communication link. The advantage of this approach is that it permits the gradual change from pure simulation to actual application. In order to perform system studies in such an environment physical phase variable models of different components of the shipboard power system were developed using operational parameters obtained from finite element (FE) analysis. These models were developed for two types of studies low and high frequency studies. Low frequency studies are used to examine the shipboard power systems behavior under load switching, and faults. High-frequency studies were used to predict abnormal conditions due to overvoltage, and components harmonic behavior. Different experiments were conducted to validate the developed models. The Simulation and experiment results show excellent agreement. The shipboard power systems components behavior under internal faults was investigated using FE analysis. This developed technique is very curial in the Shipboard power systems faults detection due to the lack of comprehensive fault test databases. A wavelet based methodology for feature extraction of the shipboard power systems current signals was developed for harmonic and fault diagnosis studies. This modeling methodology can be utilized to evaluate and predicate the NPS components future behavior in the design stage which will reduce the development cycles, cut overall cost, prevent failures, and test each subsystem exhaustively before integrating it into the system.

Three essays on asset pricing

In this dissertation, I investigate three related topics on asset pricing: the consumption-based asset pricing under long-run risks and fat tails, the pricing of VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) options and the market price of risk embedded in stock returns and stock options. These three topics are fully explored in Chapter II through IV. Chapter V summarizes the main conclusions. In Chapter II, I explore the effects of fat tails on the equilibrium implications of the long run risks model of asset pricing by introducing innovations with dampened power law to consumption and dividends growth processes. I estimate the structural parameters of the proposed model by maximum likelihood. I find that the stochastic volatility model with fat tails can, without resorting to high risk aversion, generate implied risk premium, expected risk free rate and their volatilities comparable to the magnitudes observed in data. In Chapter III, I examine the pricing performance of VIX option models. The contention that simpler-is-better is supported by the empirical evidence using actual VIX option market data. I find that no model has small pricing errors over the entire range of strike prices and times to expiration. In general, Whaley’s Black-like option model produces the best overall results, supporting the simpler-is-better contention. However, the Whaley model does under/overprice out-of-the-money call/put VIX options, which is contrary to the behavior of stock index option pricing models. In Chapter IV, I explore risk pricing through a model of time-changed Lvy processes based on the joint evidence from individual stock options and underlying stocks. I specify a pricing kernel that prices idiosyncratic and systematic risks. This approach to examining risk premia on stocks deviates from existing studies. The empirical results show that the market pays positive premia for idiosyncratic and market jump-diffusion risk, and idiosyncratic volatility risk. However, there is no consensus on the premium for market volatility risk. It can be positive or negative. The positive premium on idiosyncratic risk runs contrary to the implications of traditional capital asset pricing theory.