Valuation of defaultable bonds and debt restructuring

In this paper we develop a contingent valuation model for zero-coupon bonds with default. In order to emphasize the role of maturity time and place of the lender’s claim in the hierarchy of debt of a firm, we consider a firm that issues two bonds with different maturities and different seniorage. The model allows us to analyze the implications of both debt renegotiation and capital structure of a firm on the prices of bonds. We obtain that renegotiation brings about a significant change in the bond prices and that the effect is dispersed through different channels: increasing the value of the firm, reallocating payments, and avoiding costly liquidation. Moreover, the presence of two creditors leads to qualitatively different implications for pricing, while emphasizing the importance of bond covenants and renegotiation of the entire debt.

Accuracy vs. simplicity: a complex trade-off

Inductive learning aims at finding general rules that hold true in a database. Targeted learning seeks rules for the predictions of the value of a variable based on the values of others, as in the case of linear or non-parametric regression analysis. Non-targeted learning finds regularities without a specific prediction goal. We model the product of non-targeted learning as rules that state that a certain phenomenon never happens, or that certain conditions necessitate another. For all types of rules, there is a trade-off between the rule's accuracy and its simplicity. Thus rule selection can be viewed as a choice problem, among pairs of degree of accuracy and degree of complexity. However, one cannot in general tell what is the feasible set in the accuracy-complexity space. Formally, we show that finding out whether a point belongs to this set is computationally hard. In particular, in the context of linear regression, finding a small set of variables that obtain a certain value of R2 is computationally hard. Computational complexity may explain why a person is not always aware of rules that, if asked, she would find valid. This, in turn, may explain why one can change other people's minds (opinions, beliefs) without providing new information.

An ordinal shapley value for economic environments

We propose a new solution concept to address the problem of sharing a surplus among the agents generating it. The sharing problem is formulated in the preferences-endowments space. The solution is defined in a recursive manner incorporating notions of consistency and fairness and relying on properties satisfied by the Shapley value for Transferable Utility (TU) games. We show a solution exists, and refer to it as an Ordinal Shapley value (OSV). The OSV associates with each problem an allocation as well as a matrix of concessions ``measuring'' the gains each agent foregoes in favor of the other agents. We analyze the structure of the concessions, and show they are unique and symmetric. Next we characterize the OSV using the notion of coalitional dividends, and furthermore show it is monotone in an agent's initial endowments and satisfies anonymity. Finally, similarly to the weighted Shapley value for TU games, we construct a weighted OSV as well.

Toxoplasmose congênita

We had the opportunity to study 6 cases of the congenital form of toxoplasmosis, found in a series of 1200 necropsies of fetuses and newborn babies, realized at 3 different hospitals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Among the 6 cases, 4 were premature babies liveborn at the 6th-8th gestational month and 2 were stillborn (1 premature and 1 at term). In all those cases, the diagnosis was based in the detection of the parasite in tissues and in one case it was even isolated the Toxoplasma from the necrotic material found in the cranial cavity. This strain of Toxoplasma, pathogenic to pigeons, to guinea pigs and to mice, is preserved by successive transfers in mice. Some facts observed in those cases present an interest not only strictly anatomic but also have certain value for the better acknowlegment of the disease. First, we want to call the attention to the presence of a sudden high fever, during or just before pregnancy in the 4 cases in which the maternal anamnesis was perfectly studied; this fever that was preceded by a normal beginning of pregnancy, had relatively rapid remission, but in 2 cases was immediately followed by uterine bleeding and premature delivery, although the puerperium had been apparently normal. It is known that are normal the subsequent children of the mothers that delivered a baby with toxoplasmosis and that several women have normal babies before the toxoplasmotic one. We believe that the fever observed in our cases could be indicative of the beginning of maternal infection and those are the reasons why we emphasize the need of careful anamnesis, specially in the cases actually diagnosed as inapparent infection. Another fact to notice is that in 5 of our cases the event premature delivery happened always between the 6th and the 8th months of pregnancy, and the only term fetus was delivered in advanced stage of maceration. The above mentioned facts could agree with the opinion of FRENKEL (1949), when he declared that "primary infection of the pregnant mother appears more likely to be the commoner mode of fetal toxoplasmic infection", but they would disagree with WEINMAN (1952) who believes that the transmission of Toxoplasma to the fetus is more frequent through a pregnant woman with chronic disease and who says "that infection contracted during pregnancy may and probably does happen from time to time"...Still in connection with the transmission of toxoplasmosis, we want to note the verification of inflammatory lesions in the placental villi and in the umbilical cord in 3 of the 4 cases in which such organs were examined at the microscope. In the case n. 1, we found several pseudocysts of Toxoplasma in the placenta, and the fibroblasts of Wharton's jelly were particularly rich in isolated forms and in colonies of Toxoplasma; the easy multiplication of the parasite in that tissue calls the attention and even suggests its utilisation for Toxoplasma's cultivation. The confirmation of Toxoplasma in human placenta was made only recently by CRISTEN et al. (1951) and by NEGHME et al. (1952), in Chile; it is not frequent in the literature, what gives some value to our present verification. Another observation was that provided by the case n. 6. This baby, a premature one of the 6th month, was 14 days old and-died with signs of respiratory disease, the causa mortis have been pneumonia. At the necropsy, we found no gross change that suggested toxoplasmosis, except the presence of some small necrotic focuses in the cerebral nervous substance around the ventricles. As a matter of fact, there was no enlargement of spleen or liver and neither leptomeningitis nor hydrocephalus. Such focuses were attributed to possible anoxia and in fact they are extremely similar to anoxial softenings, even when they are examined at the microscope; its structure composed of a central necrotic zone, surrounded by proliferated neuroglia and by a variable deposit of calcium salts, closely simulated the anoxial softenings, when the microscopical examination is based in the common histological preparations (hematoxilin-eosin, etc.). But when we examine preparations by the Giemsa or by the periodic acid-Schiff methods, we will note the presence of Toxoplasma, with its typical aspect or a little changed by degeneration. When we describe this observation, we wish to evidence the need of the search of Toxoplasma and closed parasites, in the cases of supposed pure anoxial softenings of nervous substance, in children. The frequency with which the congenital toxoplasmosis was anatomically verified should be emphasized, although the disease had not been clinically suspected, and it should be borne in mind that the second case of toxoplasmosis reported in the world was observed in Brazil by MAGARINOS TORRES; this case was the first to be described of the generalized congenital form of the infection, i. e. with myocardial lesions and parasites in skeletal muscles and skin.

Limitations and biases of conventional analysis of climate change. Towards an analysis coherent with sustainable development

This paper shows the numerous problems of conventional economic analysis in the evaluation of climate change mitigation policies. The article points out the many limitations, omissions, and the arbitrariness that have characterized most evaluation models applied up until now. These shortcomings, in an almost overwhelming way, have biased the result towards the recommendation of a lower aggressiveness of emission mitigation policies. Consequently, this paper questions whether these results provide an appropriate answer to the problem. Finally, various points that an analysis coherent with sustainable development should take into account are presented.

Inequality in CO2 emissions across countries and its relationship with income inequality: a distributive approach

This paper analyses the inequality in CO2 emissions across countries (and groups of countries) and the relationship of this inequality with income inequality across countries for the period (1971-1999). The research employs the tools that are usually applied in income distribution analysis. The methodology used here gives qualitative and quantitative information on some of the features of the inequalities across countries that are considered most relevant for the design and discussion of policies aimed at mitigating climate change. The paper studies the relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP and shows that income inequality across countries has been followed by an important inequality in the distribution of emissions. This inequality has diminished mildly, although the inequality in emissions across countries ordered in the increasing value of income (inequality between rich and poor countries) has diminished less than the “simple” inequality in emissions. Lastly, the paper shows that the inequality in CO2 emissions is mostly explained by the inequality between groups with different per capita income level. The importance of the inequality within groups of similar per capita income is much lower and has diminished during the period, especially in the low-middle income group.

Globalization and Europeanization: Analysing Change

The main motivation for exploring the relationship between globalization and Europeanization is the understanding of the importance of exogenous factors for policy change at the domestic level. Can we distinguish the impact of Europeanization to that of globalization? What is the relationship between globalization and Europeanization and what can we learn about the impact of the two phenomena upon political institutions, public policies, identities and values of EU member-states? Can we distinguish the traces of globalization to those of Europeanization upon the domestic level? The paper draws upon International Relations and International Political Economy theories of globalization as well as upon the Europeanization literature. Both phenomena are multi-dimensional and in order to assess their impact and their relationship three dimensions are explored: political institutions, public policies and values and identities. It is concluded that the two phenomena are interwoven and that there is no antithetical relationship between them. Their core is similar, based on the values of neo-liberalism, representative democracy and open market economy.

Thickening of phase change materials (PCM) to avoid segregation

Estudi elaborat a partir d’una estada a Çukurova University, Turquia, al juliol del 2006. L’emmagatzematge d’energia tèrmica ha atret interès en aplicacions tèrmiques com l’aigua calenta, la calefacció i l’aire condicionat. Aquests sistemes són útils per corregir la no coincidència entre la oferta i la demanda d’energia. Principalment hi ha dos tipus de sistemes d’emmagatzematge d’energia tèrmica, emmagatzematge amb calor sensible i amb calor latent. L’emmagatzematge amb calor latent és particularment atractiu degut a la seva habilitat de donar una densitat d’emmagatzematge d’energia més alt i la seva característica d’emmagatzemar calor a una temperatura constant corresponent a la temperatura de transició de fase de la substància emmagatzemadora de calor. Les salts hidratades orgàniques tenen certes avantatges com a materials d’emmagatzematge de calor latent sobre els materials orgànics. En canvi, quan les salts hidratades s’utilitzen com a materials de canvi de fase (PCM) apareixen alguns problemes en les aplicacions d’emmagatzematge de calor latent. Aquests són el subrefredament de les salts hidratades quan es congelen degut a les seves dèbils propietats de nucleació, i la separació de fase que hi apareix degut a una fusió incongruent. En aquest estudi, s’estabilitza sal de Glauber (Na2SO4.10H2O) amb diferents concentracions de poliacrilamida i gelatina per prevenir la fusió incongruent. Per prevenir el subrefredament s’utilitza un agent nucleant amb una estructura cristal•lina semblant a la de la sal de Glauber. La capacitat d’emmagatzematge de calor de les mostres de PCM estabilitzades amb diferents concentracions de gels polimèrics es determinen amb DCS i amb el mètode T-history.

Equity and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment

Emissions distribution is a focus variable for the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with a popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities.

North-South trade and directed technical change

In a world where poor countries provide weak protection for intellectual property rights (IPRs), market integration shifts technical change in favor of rich nations. Through this channel, free trade may amplify international income differences. At the same time, integration with countries where IPRs are weakly protected can slow down the world growth rate. An important implication of these results is that protection of intellectual property is most beneficial in open countries. This prediction, which is novel in the literature, is consistent with evidence from a panel of 53 countries observed in the years 1965-1990. The paper also provides empirical support for the mechanism linking North-South trade to the direction of technical change: an increase in import penetration from low-wage, low-IPRs, countries is followed by a sharp fall in R&D investment in a panel of US manufacturing sectors.

El Procés de la certificació energètica per edificació existent

Arran d’una part de la transposició a l’Estat espanyol de la Directiva 2002/91/CE sobre Eficiència Energètica d’Edificis mitjançant el Real Decret 47/2007, pel que s’aprova el Procediment bàsic per la certificació d’eficiència energètica d’edificis de nova construcció, la certificació energètica esdevé obligatòria per edificació nova, i es dóna de termini fins a 2009 per a l’obligatorietat en edificació existent. És en aquest buit de l’edificació existent on es presenta l’objectiu de l’estudi, que és precisament augmentar el coneixement i canvi d’actitud dels agents de l’habitatge social sobre solucions de la rehabilitació des d’una perspectiva de sostenibilitat ambiental, en el context de la certificació energètica per obra nova. Després d’un intens treball de recerca de dades, s’aplicà en un cas pràctic d’habitatge social la nova directiva sobre certificació energètica de l’edificació amb les eines oficials existents. S’aconseguí fer una avaluació energètica d’un habitatge com a eina de gestió per la definició d’estratègies, i solucions ambientals per aconseguir així una major eficiència dels mateixos. D’aquesta manera, s’ha demostrat el valor afegit de la certificació energètica, i les dades obtingudes de les diferents certificacions realitzades podran ajudar a desenvolupar eines i estratègies integrades d’aplicació de millores energètiques a nivell del parc d’edificis existent.

Explaining Variation in Organizational Change: The Reform of Human Resource Management in the European Commission and the OECD

In this article we investigate the reforms of human resource management in the European Commission and the OECD by analyzing comparatively to what extent both organizations have adjusted their respective structures towards the ideal type of the so-called New Public Management (NPM). The empirical findings show that reforms towards NPM are more pronounced in the Commission than in the OECD. These findings are surprising for two reasons: First, it seems rather paradoxical that the OECD as central promoter of NPM at the international level lags behind the global trend when it comes to reforming its own structures. Second, this result is in contradiction with theoretical expectations, as they can be derived from theories of institutional isomorphism. To nevertheless account for the surprising results, it is necessary to modify and complement existing theories especially with regard to the scope conditions of their causal mechanisms.

Understanding sources of the change in international business cycles

Macroeconomic activity has become less volatile over the past three decades in most G7 economies. Current literature focuses on the characterization of the volatility reduction and explanations for this so called "moderation" in each G7 economy separately. In opposed to individual country analysis and individual variable analysis, this paper focuses on common characteristics of the reduction and common explanations for the moderation in G7 countries. In particular, we study three explanations: structural changes in the economy, changes in common international shocks and changes in domestic shocks. We study these explanations in a unified model structure. To this end, we propose a Bayesian factor structural vector autoregressive model. Using the proposed model, we investigate whether we can find common explanations for all G7 economies when information is pooled from multiple domestic and international sources. Our empirical analysis suggests that volatility reductions can largely be attributed to the decline in the magnitudes of the shocks in most G7 countries while only for the U.K., the U.S. and Italy they can partially be attributed to structural changes in the economy. Analyzing the components of the volatility, we also find that domestic shocks rather than common international shocks can account for a large part of the volatility reduction in most of the G7 countries. Finally, we find that after mid-1980s the structure of the economy changes substantially in five of the G7 countries: Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S..