Value roadmapping: A structured approach for early stage technology investment decisions

Deciding to invest in early stage technologies is one of the most important tasks of technology management and arguably also the most uncertain. It assumes a particular significance in the rise of technology companies in emerging economies, which have to make appropriate investment decisions. Technology managers already have a wide range of methods and tools at their disposal, but these are mostly focussed on quantitative measures such as discounted cash flow and real options techniques. However, in the early stages of technology development there seems to be a lot of dissatisfaction with these techniques as there appears to be a lack of accuracy with respect to the underlying assumptions that these models require. In order to complement these models this paper will discuss an alternative approach that we call value road-mapping. By adapting roadmapping techniques the potential value streams of early stages technologies can be plotted and hence a clearer consensus based picture of the future potential of new technologies emerges. Roadmapping is a workshop-based process bringing together multifunctional perspectives, and supporting communication in particular between technical and commercial groups. The study is work in progress and is based on a growing number of cases. (c) 2006 PICMET.

Handling uncertainty in housing stock models

Housing stock models can be useful tools in helping to assess the environmental and socio-economic impacts of retrofits to residential buildings; however, existing housing stock models are not able to quantify the uncertainties that arise in the modelling process from various sources, thus limiting the role that they can play in helping decision makers. This paper examines the different sources of uncertainty involved in housing stock models and proposes a framework for handling these uncertainties. This framework involves integrating probabilistic sensitivity analysis with a Bayesian calibration process in order to quantify uncertain parameters more accurately. The proposed framework is tested on a case study building, and suggestions are made on how to expand the framework for retrofit analysis at an urban-scale. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Simulating intertwined design processes that have similar structures: A case study of a small company that creates made-to-order fashion products

The authors use simulation to analyse the resource-driven dependencies between concurrent processes used to create customised products in a company. Such processes are uncertain and unique according to the design changes required. However, they have similar structures. For simulation, a level of abstraction is chosen such that all possible processes are represented by the same activity network. Differences between processes are determined by the customisations that they implement. The approach is illustrated through application to a small business that creates customised fashion products. We suggest that similar techniques could be applied to study intertwined design processes in more complex domains. Copyright © 2011 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Multiple maternal origins of chickens: Out of the Asian jungles

Domestic chickens have long been important to human societies for food, religion, entertainment, and decorative uses, yet the origins and phylogeography of chickens through Eurasia remain uncertain. Here, we assessed their origins and phylogeographic hist

Zebu Cattle Are an Exclusive Legacy of the South Asia Neolithic

Animal domestication was a major step forward in human prehistory, contributing to the emergence of more complex societies. At the time of the Neolithic transition, zebu cattle (Bos indicus) were probably the most abundant and important domestic livestock species in Southern Asia. Although archaeological evidence points toward the domestication of zebu cattle within the Indian subcontinent, the exact geographic origins and phylogenetic history of zebu cattle remains uncertain. Here, we report evidence from 844 zebu mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences surveyed from 19 Asiatic countries comprising 8 regional groups, which identify 2 distinct mitochondrial haplogroups, termed I1 and I2. The marked increase in nucleotide diversity (P < 0.001) for both the I1 and I2 haplogroups within the northern part of the Indian subcontinent is consistent with an origin for all domestic zebu in this area. For haplogroup I1, genetic diversity was highest within the Indus Valley among the three hypothesized domestication centers (Indus Valley, Ganges, and South India). These data support the Indus Valley as the most likely center of origin for the I1 haplogroup and a primary center of zebu domestication. However, for the I2 haplogroup, a complex pattern of diversity is detected, preventing the unambiguous pinpointing of the exact place of origin for this zebu maternal lineage. Our findings are discussed with respect to the archaeological record for zebu domestication within the Indian subcontinent.

Min-Max Moving Horizon Estimation for a Class of Hybrid Systems

In this paper, a strategy for min-max Moving Horizon Estimation (MHE) of a class of uncertain hybrid systems is proposed. The class of hybrid systems being considered are Piecewise Affine systems (PWA) with both continuous valued and logic components. Furthermore, we consider the case when there is a (possibly structured) norm bounded uncertainty in each subsystem. Sufficient conditions on the time horizon and the penalties on the state at the beginning of the estimation horizon to guarantee convergence of the MHE scheme will be provided. The MHE scheme will be implemented as a mixed integer semidefinite optimisation for which an efficient algorithm was recently introduced.

IUTAM Symposium on the Vibration Analysis of Structures with Uncertainties

The Symposium was aimed at the theoretical and numerical problems involved in modelling the dynamic response of structures which have uncertain properties due ...

Optimization of nanotube electrode geometry in a liquid crystal media from wavefront aberrations

This paper presents experimental optimization of number and geometry of nanotube electrodes in a liquid crystal media from wavefront aberrations for realizing nanophotonic devices. The refractive-index gradient profiles from different nanotube geometries-arrays of one, three, four, and five-were studied along with wavefront aberrations using Zernike polynomials. The optimizations help the device to make application in the areas of voltage reconfigurable microlens arrays, high-resolution displays, wavefront sensors, holograms, and phase modulators. © 2012 Optical Society of America.

The effects of centrally administered fluorocitrate via inhibiting glial cells on working memory in rats

Although prefrontal and hippocampal neurons are critical for spatial working memory, the function of glial cells in spatial working memory remains uncertain. In this study we investigated the function of glial cells in rats' working memory. The glial cell

Proposal of a method to clarify and enhance decision-making at the front-end of innovation

Decision-making at the front-end of innovation is critical for the success of companies. This paper presents a simple visual method, called DMCA (Decision-Making Criteria Assessment), which was created to clarify and improve decision-making at the front-end of innovation. The method maps the uncertainty of project information and importance of decision criteria, compiling a measure that indicates whether the decision is highly uncertain, what information interferes with it, and what criteria are actually being considered. The DMCA method was tested in two projects that faced decision-making issues, and the results confirm the benefits of using this method in decision-making at the front-end. © 2012 IEEE.

Towards a fast electro-thermo-mechanical IGBT/Diode simulation framework for design of reliable power electronic converters

This paper describes a methodology that enables fast and reasonably accurate prediction of the reliability of power electronic modules featuring IGBTs and p-i-n diodes, by taking into account thermo-mechanical failure mechanisms of the devices and their associated packaging. In brief, the proposed simulation framework performs two main tasks which are tightly linked together: (i) the generation of the power devices' transient thermal response for realistic long load cycles and (ii) the prediction of the power modules' lifetime based on the obtained temperature profiles. In doing so the first task employs compact, physics-based device models, power losses lookup tables and polynomials and combined material-failure and thermal modelling, while the second task uses advanced reliability tests for failure mode and time-to-failure estimation. The proposed technique is intended to be utilised as a design/optimisation tool for reliable power electronic converters, since it allows easy and fast investigation of the effects that changes in circuit topology or devices' characteristics and packaging have on the reliability of the employed power electronic modules. © 2012 IEEE.

A method for VVER-1000 fuel rearrangement optimization taking into account both fuel cladding durability and burnup

A method for VVER-1000 fuel rearrangement optimization that takes into account both cladding durability and fuel burnup and which is suitable for any regime of normal reactor operation has been established. The main stages involved in solving the problem of fuel rearrangement optimization are discussed in detail. Using the proposed fuel rearrangement efficiency criterion, a simple example VVER-1000 fuel rearrangement optimization problem is solved under deterministic and uncertain conditions. It is shown that the deterministic and robust (in the face of uncertainty) solutions of the rearrangement optimization problem are similar in principle, but the robust solution is, as might be anticipated, more conservative. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Neural activity associated with the passive prediction of ambiguity and risk for aversive events.

In economic decision making, outcomes are described in terms of risk (uncertain outcomes with certain probabilities) and ambiguity (uncertain outcomes with uncertain probabilities). Humans are more averse to ambiguity than to risk, with a distinct neural system suggested as mediating this effect. However, there has been no clear disambiguation of activity related to decisions themselves from perceptual processing of ambiguity. In a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) experiment, we contrasted ambiguity, defined as a lack of information about outcome probabilities, to risk, where outcome probabilities are known, or ignorance, where outcomes are completely unknown and unknowable. We modified previously learned pavlovian CS+ stimuli such that they became an ambiguous cue and contrasted evoked brain activity both with an unmodified predictive CS+ (risky cue), and a cue that conveyed no information about outcome probabilities (ignorance cue). Compared with risk, ambiguous cues elicited activity in posterior inferior frontal gyrus and posterior parietal cortex during outcome anticipation. Furthermore, a similar set of regions was activated when ambiguous cues were compared with ignorance cues. Thus, regions previously shown to be engaged by decisions about ambiguous rewarding outcomes are also engaged by ambiguous outcome prediction in the context of aversive outcomes. Moreover, activation in these regions was seen even when no actual decision is made. Our findings suggest that these regions subserve a general function of contextual analysis when search for hidden information during outcome anticipation is both necessary and meaningful.

Striatal activity underlies novelty-based choice in humans.

The desire to seek new and unfamiliar experiences is a fundamental behavioral tendency in humans and other species. In economic decision making, novelty seeking is often rational, insofar as uncertain options may prove valuable and advantageous in the long run. Here, we show that, even when the degree of perceptual familiarity of an option is unrelated to choice outcome, novelty nevertheless drives choice behavior. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we show that this behavior is specifically associated with striatal activity, in a manner consistent with computational accounts of decision making under uncertainty. Furthermore, this activity predicts interindividual differences in susceptibility to novelty. These data indicate that the brain uses perceptual novelty to approximate choice uncertainty in decision making, which in certain contexts gives rise to a newly identified and quantifiable source of human irrationality.

Modulation of pain ratings by expectation and uncertainty: Behavioral characteristics and anticipatory neural correlates.

Expectations about the magnitude of impending pain exert a substantial effect on subsequent perception. However, the neural mechanisms that underlie the predictive processes that modulate pain are poorly understood. In a combined behavioral and high-density electrophysiological study we measured anticipatory neural responses to heat stimuli to determine how predictions of pain intensity, and certainty about those predictions, modulate brain activity and subjective pain ratings. Prior to receiving randomized laser heat stimuli at different intensities (low, medium or high) subjects (n=15) viewed cues that either accurately informed them of forthcoming intensity (certain expectation) or not (uncertain expectation). Pain ratings were biased towards prior expectations of either high or low intensity. Anticipatory neural responses increased with expectations of painful vs. non-painful heat intensity, suggesting the presence of neural responses that represent predicted heat stimulus intensity. These anticipatory responses also correlated with the amplitude of the Laser-Evoked Potential (LEP) response to painful stimuli when the intensity was predictable. Source analysis (LORETA) revealed that uncertainty about expected heat intensity involves an anticipatory cortical network commonly associated with attention (left dorsolateral prefrontal, posterior cingulate and bilateral inferior parietal cortices). Relative certainty, however, involves cortical areas previously associated with semantic and prospective memory (left inferior frontal and inferior temporal cortex, and right anterior prefrontal cortex). This suggests that biasing of pain reports and LEPs by expectation involves temporally precise activity in specific cortical networks.