End-to-end modelling for an ecosystem approach to fisheries in the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem

This work represents an original contribution to the methodology for ecosystem models' development as well as the rst attempt of an end-to-end (E2E) model of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem (NHCE). The main purpose of the developed model is to build a tool for ecosystem-based management and decision making, reason why the credibility of the model is essential, and this can be assessed through confrontation to data. Additionally, the NHCE exhibits a high climatic and oceanographic variability at several scales, the major source of interannual variability being the interruption of the upwelling seasonality by the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which has direct e ects on larval survival and sh recruitment success. Fishing activity can also be highly variable, depending on the abundance and accessibility of the main shery resources. This context brings the two main methodological questions addressed in this thesis, through the development of an end-to-end model coupling the high trophic level model OSMOSE to the hydrodynamics and biogeochemical model ROMS-PISCES: i) how to calibrate ecosystem models using time series data and ii) how to incorporate the impact of the interannual variability of the environment and shing. First, this thesis highlights some issues related to the confrontation of complex ecosystem models to data and proposes a methodology for a sequential multi-phases calibration of ecosystem models. We propose two criteria to classify the parameters of a model: the model dependency and the time variability of the parameters. Then, these criteria along with the availability of approximate initial estimates are used as decision rules to determine which parameters need to be estimated, and their precedence order in the sequential calibration process. Additionally, a new Evolutionary Algorithm designed for the calibration of stochastic models (e.g Individual Based Model) and optimized for maximum likelihood estimation has been developed and applied to the calibration of the OSMOSE model to time series data. The environmental variability is explicit in the model: the ROMS-PISCES model forces the OSMOSE model and drives potential bottom-up e ects up the foodweb through plankton and sh trophic interactions, as well as through changes in the spatial distribution of sh. The latter e ect was taken into account using presence/ absence species distribution models which are traditionally assessed through a confusion matrix and the statistical metrics associated to it. However, when considering the prediction of the habitat against time, the variability in the spatial distribution of the habitat can be summarized and validated using the emerging patterns from the shape of the spatial distributions. We modeled the potential habitat of the main species of the Humboldt Current Ecosystem using several sources of information ( sheries, scienti c surveys and satellite monitoring of vessels) jointly with environmental data from remote sensing and in situ observations, from 1992 to 2008. The potential habitat was predicted over the study period with monthly resolution, and the model was validated using quantitative and qualitative information of the system using a pattern oriented approach. The nal ROMS-PISCES-OSMOSE E2E ecosystem model for the NHCE was calibrated using our evolutionary algorithm and a likelihood approach to t monthly time series data of landings, abundance indices and catch at length distributions from 1992 to 2008. To conclude, some potential applications of the model for shery management are presented and their limitations and perspectives discussed.

Selective Coupling between Theta Phase and Neocortical Fast Gamma Oscillations during REM-Sleep in Mice

TORT, A. B. L. ; SCHEFFER-TEIXEIRA, R ; Souza, B.C. ; DRAGUHN, A. ; BRANKACK, J. . Theta-associated high-frequency oscillations (110-160 Hz) in the hippocampus and neocortex. Progress in Neurobiology , v. 100, p. 1-14, 2013.

Ketamine alters oscillatory coupling in the hoppocampus

Recent studies show that higher order oscillatory interactions such as cross-frequency coupling are important for brain functions that are impaired in schizophrenia, including perception, attention and memory. Here we investigated the dynamics of oscillatory coupling in the hippocampus of awake rats upon NMDA receptor blockade by ketamine, a pharmacological model of schizophrenia. Ketamine (25, 50 and 75 mg/kg i.p.) increased gamma and high-frequency oscillations (HFO) in all depths of the CA1-dentate axis, while theta power changes depended on anatomical location and were independent of a transient increase of delta oscillations. Phase coherence of gamma and HFO increased across hippocampal layers. Phase-amplitude coupling between theta and fast oscillations was markedly altered in a dose-dependent manner: ketamine increased hippocampal theta-HFO coupling at all doses, while theta-gamma coupling increased at the lowest dose and was disrupted at the highest dose. Our results demonstrate that ketamine alters network interactions that underlie cognitively relevant theta-gamma coupling.

Strong connections, loose coupling: the influence of the Bering Sea ecosystem on commercial fisheries and subsistence harvests in Alaska

Human-environment connections are the subject of much study, and the details of those connections are crucial factors in effective environmental management. In a large, interdisciplinary study of the eastern Bering Sea ecosystem involving disciplines from physical oceanography to anthropology, one of the research teams examined commercial fisheries and another looked at subsistence harvests by Alaska Natives. Commercial fisheries and subsistence harvests are extensive, demonstrating strong connections between the ecosystem and the humans who use it. At the same time, however, both research teams concluded that the influence of ecosystem conditions on the outcomes of human activities was weaker than anticipated. Likely explanations of this apparently loose coupling include the ability of fishers and hunters to adjust to variable conditions, and the role of social systems and management in moderating the direct effects of changes in the ecosystem. We propose a new conceptual model for future studies that incorporates a greater range of social factors and their dynamics, in addition to similarly detailed examinations of the ecosystem itself.

Numerical analysis of the modal coupling at low resonances in a Colombian Andean Bandola in C using the finite element method

The work presented in this thesis is concerned with the dynamical behavior of a CBandola's acoustical box at low resonances -- Two models consisting of two and three coupled oscillators are proposed in order to analyse the response at the first two and three resonances, respectively -- These models describe the first resonances in a bandola as a combination of the lowest modes of vibration of enclosed air, top and back plates -- Physically, the coupling between these elements is caused by the fluid-structure interaction that gives rise to coupled modes of vibration for the assembled resonance box -- In this sense, the coupling in the models is expressed in terms of the ratio of effective areas and masses of the elements which is an useful parameter to control the coupling -- Numerical models are developed for the analysis of modal coupling which is performed using the Finite Element Method -- First, it is analysed the modal behavior of separate elements: enclosed air, top plate and back plate -- This step is important to identify participating modes in the coupling -- Then, a numerical model of the resonance box is used to compute the coupled modes -- The computation of normal modes of vibration was executed in the frequency range of 0-800Hz -- Although the introduced models of coupled oscillators only predict maximum the first three resonances, they also allow to study qualitatively the coupling between the rest of the computed modes in the range -- Considering that dynamic response of a structure can be described in terms of the modal parameters, this work represents, in a good approach, the basic behavior of a CBandola, although experimental measurements are suggested as further work to verify the obtained results and get more information about some characteristics of the coupled modes, for instance, the phase of vibration of the air mode and the radiation e ciency

Effects of shrimp pond water on phytoplankton: importance of salinity and trophic status of the receiving environment

Aquaculture generates a large load of effluents richin organic matter and nutrients that may be intro-duced into the environment. This study aimed toassess in a microcosm experiment, the effect ofshrimp pond water mixed with Patos Lagoon estuarywater on phytoplankton chlorophyll a and primaryproduction, simulating two salinities. Chlorophyll a,dissolved inorganic nutrients and primary produc-tion were measured in two experiments. In Harvest I,salinity of shrimp pond and environment water wassimilar, and chlorophyll a showed different trendsover time, according to the amount of nitrogen avail-able. In Harvest II, with different salinities and highnutrient concentrations in environment water, chlo-rophyll a levels showed a similar increasing trendover time in all mixtures. Net primary productionshowed differences among treatments in the firstsampling in Harvest I, but not in the second, whereasno differences were observed among treatments inHarvest II. We conclude that shrimp pond effluentcan lead to short-term variations in chlorophyll aand primary production levels, with similar salinities.Salinity differences result in lower chlorophyll a andprimary production values than expected accordingto the nutrient input. Differences in salinity can bean important management strategy to choose thebest harvest period.

Coupling of Chemical Kinetics with Computational Fluid Dynamics in a Three-Dimensional Engine Model

The role of computer modeling has grown recently to integrate itself as an inseparable tool to experimental studies for the optimization of automotive engines and the development of future fuels. Traditionally, computer models rely on simplified global reaction steps to simulate the combustion and pollutant formation inside the internal combustion engine. With the current interest in advanced combustion modes and injection strategies, this approach depends on arbitrary adjustment of model parameters that could reduce credibility of the predictions. The purpose of this study is to enhance the combustion model of KIVA, a computational fluid dynamics code, by coupling its fluid mechanics solution with detailed kinetic reactions solved by the chemistry solver, CHEMKIN. As a result, an engine-friendly reaction mechanism for n-heptane was selected to simulate diesel oxidation. Each cell in the computational domain is considered as a perfectly-stirred reactor which undergoes adiabatic constant- volume combustion. The model was applied to an ideally-prepared homogeneous- charge compression-ignition combustion (HCCI) and direct injection (DI) diesel combustion. Ignition and combustion results show that the code successfully simulates the premixed HCCI scenario when compared to traditional combustion models. Direct injection cases, on the other hand, do not offer a reliable prediction mainly due to the lack of turbulent-mixing model, inherent in the perfectly-stirred reactor formulation. In addition, the model is sensitive to intake conditions and experimental uncertainties which require implementation of enhanced predictive tools. It is recommended that future improvements consider turbulent-mixing effects as well as optimization techniques to accurately simulate actual in-cylinder process with reduced computational cost. Furthermore, the model requires the extension of existing fuel oxidation mechanisms to include pollutant formation kinetics for emission control studies.

The effect of ecological changes in Lake Victoria on the present trophic characteristics of Oreochromis niloticus in relation to the species' role as a stabilizing factor of biomanipulation

The Lake Victoria ecosystem has experienced such a profound ecological change that Oreochromis niloticus - an introduced species, is the only important cichlid (out of the original 250 + spp) left in the lake. It is the basis of an important commercial fishery which is intensely exploited by sophisticated methods. An investigation of its feeding habits at present indicates that the species could also playa major role in the energy flux of the lake. Fisheries management in Lake Victoria will thus require multi-disciplinary studies which reflect a total ecosystem approach.