Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale

We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth’s climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two. The implications, and the relative merits, of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite, which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades, is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.

Carbon suboxide: the vibrational dependence of the v7 bending potential function

Data on the vibrational energy levels and rotational constants of carbon suboxide for the low-wavenumber bending mode ν7 are reviewed, in the ground-state manifold, and in the ν2-, ν3-, ν4-, and ν2 + ν4-state manifolds. Following the procedure developed by Duckett, Mills, and Robiette [J. Mol. Spectrosc. 63, 249 (1976)] the data have been inverted to give the effective bending potential in ν7 for each of these five states. Values are obtained for various other parameters in the effective vibration-rotation Hamiltonian. The potential and rotational constants in ν2 + ν4 are given to a close approximation by linear extrapolation from the ground state through the ν2 and ν4 states.

Atmospheric chemistry of C4F9OC2H5 (HFE-7200), C4F9OCH3 (HFE-7100), C3F7OCH3 (HFE-7000) and C3F7CH2OH: temperature dependence of the kinetics of their reactions with OH radicals, atmospheric lifetimes and global warming potentials

The atmospheric chemistry of several gases used in industrial applications, C4F9OC2H5 (HFE-7200), C4F9OCH3 (HFE-7100), C3F7OCH3 (HFE-7000) and C3F7CH2OH, has been studied. The discharge flow technique coupled with mass-spectrometric detection has been used to study the kinetics of their reactions with OH radicals as a function of temperature. The infrared spectra of the compounds have also been measured. The following Arrhenius expressions for the reactions were determined (in units of cm3 molecule-1 s-1): k(OH + HFE-7200) = (6.9+2.3-1.7) × 10-11 exp(-(2030 ± 190)/T); k(OH + HFE-7100) = (2.8+3.2-1.5) × 10-11 exp(-(2200 ± 490)/T); k(OH + HFE-7000) = (2.0+1.2-0.7) × 10-11 exp(-(2130 ± 290)/T); and k(OH + C3F7CH2OH) = (1.4+0.3-0.2) × 10-11 exp(-(1460 ± 120)/T). From the infrared spectra, radiative forcing efficiencies were determined and compared with earlier estimates in the literature. These were combined with the kinetic data to estimate 100-year time horizon global warming potentials relative to CO2 of 69, 337, 499 and 36 for HFE-7200, HFE-7100, HFE-7000 and CF3CF2CF2CH2OH, respectively.

Restricted dispersal reduces the strength of spatial density dependence in a tropical bird population

Spatial processes could play an important role in density-dependent population regulation because the disproportionate use of poor quality habitats as population size increases is widespread in animal populations-the so-called buffer effect. While the buffer effect patterns and their demographic consequences have been described in a number of wild populations, much less is known about how dispersal affects distribution patterns and ultimately density dependence. Here, we investigated the role of dispersal in spatial density dependence using an extraordinarily detailed dataset from a reintroduced Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus) population with a territorial (despotic) breeding system. We show that recruitment rates varied significantly between territories, and that territory occupancy was related to its recruitment rate, both of which are consistent with the buffer effect theory. However, we also show that restricted dispersal affects the patterns of territory occupancy with the territories close to release sites being occupied sooner and for longer as the population has grown than the territories further away. As a result of these dispersal patterns, the strength of spatial density dependence is significantly reduced. We conclude that restricted dispersal can modify spatial density dependence in the wild, which has implications for the way population dynamics are likely to be impacted by environmental change.

Time patterns in UK demand for alcohol and tobacco: an application of the EM algorithm

Capturing the pattern of structural change is a relevant task in applied demand analysis, as consumer preferences may vary significantly over time. Filtering and smoothing techniques have recently played an increasingly relevant role. A dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System with random walk parameters is estimated in order to detect modifications in consumer habits and preferences, as well as changes in the behavioural response to prices and income. Systemwise estimation, consistent with the underlying constraints from economic theory, is achieved through the EM algorithm. The proposed model is applied to UK aggregate consumption of alcohol and tobacco, using quarterly data from 1963 to 2003. Increased alcohol consumption is explained by a preference shift, addictive behaviour and a lower price elasticity. The dynamic and time-varying specification is consistent with the theoretical requirements imposed at each sample point. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The cell wall and secretory proteome of a tobacco cell line synthesising secondary wall

The utility of plant secondary cell wall biomass for industrial and biofuel purposes depends upon improving cellulose amount, availability and extractability. The possibility of engineering such biomass requires much more knowledge of the genes and proteins involved in the synthesis, modification and assembly of cellulose, lignin and xylans. Proteomic data are essential to aid gene annotation and understanding of polymer biosynthesis. Comparative proteomes were determined for secondary walls of stem xylem and transgenic xylogenic cells of tobacco and detected peroxidase, cellulase, chitinase, pectinesterase and a number of defence/cell death related proteins, but not marker proteins of primary walls such as xyloglucan endotransglycosidase and expansins. Only the corresponding detergent soluble proteome of secretory microsomes from the xylogenic cultured cells, subjected to ion-exchange chromatography, could be determined accurately since, xylem-specific membrane yields were of poor quality from stem tissue. Among the 109 proteins analysed, many of the protein markers of the ER such as BiP, HSP70, calreticulin and calnexin were identified, together with some of the biosynthetic enzymes and associated polypeptides involved in polymer synthesis. However 53% of these endomembrane proteins failed identification despite the use of two different MS methods, leaving considerable possibilities for future identification of novel proteins involved in secondary wall polymer synthesis once full genomic data are available.

The population dynamical consequences of density-dependence in fungal plant pathogens

Almost all stages of a plant pathogen life cycle are potentially density dependent. At small scales and short time spans appropriate to a single-pathogen individual, density dependence can be extremely strong, mediated both by simple resource use, changes in the host due to defence reactions and signals between fungal individuals. In most cases, the consequences are a rise in reproductive rate as the pathogen becomes rarer, and consequently stabilisation of the population dynamics; however, at very low density reproduction may become inefficient, either because it is co-operative or because heterothallic fungi do not form sexual spores. The consequence will be historically determined distributions. On a medium scale, appropriate for example to several generations of a host plant, the factors already mentioned remain important but specialist natural enemies may also start to affect the dynamics detectably. This could in theory lead to complex (e.g. chaotic) dynamics, but in practice heterogeneity of habitat and host is likely to smooth the extreme relationships and make for more stable, though still very variable, dynamics. On longer temporal and longer spatial scales evolutionary responses by both host and pathogen are likely to become important, producing patterns which ultimately depend on the strength of interactions at smaller scales.

Modification of hemicellulose content by antisense down-regulation of UDP-glucuronate decarboxylase in tobacco and its consequences for cellulose extractability

Extractability and recovery of cellulose from cell walls influences many industrial processes and also the utilisation of biomass for energy purposes. The utility of genetic manipulation of lignin has proven potential for optimising such processes and is also advantageous for the environment. Hemicelluloses, particularly secondary wall xylans, also influence the extractability of cellulose. UDP-glucuronate decarboxylase produces UDP-xylose, the precursor for xylans and the effect of its down-regulation on cell wall structure and cellulose extractability in transgenic tobacco has been investigated. Since there are a number of potential UDP-glucuronate decarboxylase genes, a 490 bp sequence of high similarity between members of the family, was chosen for general alteration of the expression of the gene family. Sense and antisense transgenic lines were analysed for enzyme activity using a modified and optimised electrophoretic assay, for enzyme levels by western blotting and for secondary cell wall composition. Some of the down-regulated antisense plants showed high glucose to xylose ratios in xylem walls due to less xylose-containing polymers, while arabinose and uronic acid contents, which could also have been affected by any change in UDP-xylose provision, were unchanged. The overall morphology and stem lignin content of the modified lines remained little changed compared with wild-type. However, there were some changes in vascular organisation and reduction of xylans in the secondary walls was confirmed by immunocytochemistry. Pulping analysis showed a decreased pulp yield and a higher Kappa number in some lines compared with controls, indicating that they were less delignified, although the level of residual alkali was reduced. Such traits probably indicate that lignin was less available for removal in a reduced background of xylans. However, the viscosity was higher in most antisense lines, meaning that the cellulose was less broken-down during the pulping process. This is one of the first studies of a directed manipulation of hemicellulose content on cellulose extractability and shows both positive and negative outcomes.

Modification of hemicellulose content by antisense down-regulation of UDP-glucuronate decarboxylase in tobacco and its conscequence for cellulose extractability

Extractability and recovery of cellulose from cell walls influences many industrial processes and also the utilisation of biomass for energy purposes. The utility of genetic manipulation of lignin has proven potential for optimising such processes and is also advantageous for the environment. Hemicelluloses, particularly secondary wall xylans, also influence the extractability of cellulose. UDP-glucuronate decarboxylase produces UDP-xylose, the precursor for xylans and the effect of its down-regulation on cell wall structure and cellulose extractability in transgenic tobacco has been investigated. Since there are a number of potential UDP-glucuronate decarboxylase genes, a 490 bp sequence of high similarity between members of the family, was chosen for general alteration of the expression of the gene family. Sense and antisense transgenic lines were analysed for enzyme activity using a modified and optimised electrophoretic assay, for enzyme levels by western blotting and for secondary cell wall composition. Some of the down-regulated antisense plants showed high glucose to xylose ratios in xylem walls due to less xylose-containing polymers, while arabinose and uronic acid contents, which could also have been affected by any change in UDP-xylose provision, were unchanged. The overall morphology and stem lignin content of the modified lines remained little changed compared with wild-type. However, there were some changes in vascular organisation and reduction of xylans in the secondary walls was confirmed by immunocytochemistry. Pulping analysis showed a decreased pulp yield and a higher Kappa number in some lines compared with controls, indicating that they were less delignified, although the level of residual alkali was reduced. Such traits probably indicate that lignin was less available for removal in a reduced background of xylans. However, the viscosity was higher in most antisense lines, meaning that the cellulose was less broken-down during the pulping process. This is one of the first studies of a directed manipulation of hemicellulose content on cellulose extractability and shows both positive and negative outcomes.

Declining survival rates in a reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel: evidence for non-linear density dependence and environmental stochasticity

1. We studied a reintroduced population of the formerly critically endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus Temmink from its inception in 1987 until 2002, by which time the population had attained carrying capacity for the study area. Post-1994 the population received minimal management other than the provision of nestboxes. 2. We analysed data collected on survival (1987-2002) using program MARK to explore the influence of density-dependent and independent processes on survival over the course of the population's development. 3.We found evidence for non-linear, threshold density dependence in juvenile survival rates. Juvenile survival was also strongly influenced by climate, with the temporal distribution of rainfall during the cyclone season being the most influential climatic variable. Adult survival remained constant throughout. 4. Our most parsimonious capture-mark-recapture statistical model, which was constrained by density and climate, explained 75.4% of the temporal variation exhibited in juvenile survival rates over the course of the population's development. 5. This study is an example of how data collected as part of a threatened species recovery programme can be used to explore the role and functional form of natural population regulatory processes. With the improvements in conservation management techniques and the resulting success stories, formerly threatened species offer unique opportunities to further our understanding of the fundamental principles of population ecology.

The addition reaction between silylene and ethyne: further isotope studies, pressure dependence studies, and quantum chemical calculations

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of dideutero-silylene, SiD2, generated by laser flash photolysis of phenylsilane-d(3), have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with C2H2. The reaction was studied in the gas phase over the pressure range 1-100 Torr in SF6 bath gas, at five temperatures in the range 297-600 K. The second-order rate constants obtained by extrapolation to the high-pressure limits at each temperature fitted the Arrhenius equation log(k(infinity)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-10.05 +/- 0.05) + (3.43 +/- 0.36 kJ mol(-1))/RT ln 10. The rate constants were used to obtain a comprehensive set of isotope effects by comparison with earlier obtained rate constants for the reactions of SiH2 with C2H2 and C2D2. Additionally, pressure-dependent rate constants for the reaction of SiH2 with C2H2 in the presence of He (1-100 Tort) were obtained at 300, 399, and 613 K. Quantum chemical (ab initio) calculations of the SiC2H4 reaction system at the G3 level support the initial formation of silirene, which rapidly isomerizes to ethynylsilane as the major pathway. Reversible formation of vinylsilylene is also an important process. The calculations also indicate the involvement of several other intermediates, not previously suggested in the mechanism. RRKM calculations are in semiquantitative agreement with the pressure dependences and isotope effects suggested by the ab initio calculations, but residual discrepancies suggest the possible involvement of the minor reaction channel, SiH2 + C2H2 - SWPO + C2H4. The results are compared and contrasted with previous studies of this reaction system.

Atopococcus tabaci gen. nov., sp nov., a novel Gram-positive, catalase-negative, coccus-shaped bacterium isolated from tobacco

A novel Gram-positive, aerobic, catalase-negative, coccus-shaped organism originating from tobacco was characterized using phenotypic and molecular taxonomic methods. The organism contained a cell wall murein based on L-lysine (variation A4 alpha, type L-lysine-L-glutamic acid), synthesized long-chain cellular fatty acids of the straight-chain saturated and monounsaturated types (with C(16:1)omega 9, C-16:0 and C(18:1)omega 9 predominating) and possessed a DNA G+C content of 46 mol%. Based on morphological, biochemical and chemical characteristics, the coccus-shaped organism did not conform to any presently recognized taxon. Comparative 16S rRNA gene sequencing studies confirmed the distinctiveness of the unknown coccus, with the bacterium displaying sequence divergence values of greater than 7% with other recognized Gram-positive taxa. Treeing analysis reinforced its distinctiveness, with the unidentified organism forming a relatively long subline branching at the periphery of an rRNA gene sequence cluster which encompasses the genera Alloiococcus, Allolustis, Alkalibacterium, Atopostipes, Dolosigranulum and Marinilactibacillus. Based on phenotypic and molecular phylogenetic evidence, it is proposed that the unknown organism from tobacco be classified as a new genus and species, Atopococcus tabaci gen. nov., sp. nov. The type strain of Atopococcus tabaci is CCUG 48253(T) (= CIP 108502(T)).

Uniformization of affine dependence programs for parallel embedded system design

This paper is concerned with the uniformization of a system of afine recurrence equations. This transformation is used in the design (or compilation) of highly parallel embedded systems (VLSI systolic arrays, signal processing filters, etc.). In this paper, we present and implement an automatic system to achieve uniformization of systems of afine recurrence equations. We unify the results from many earlier papers, develop some theoretical extensions, and then propose effective uniformization algorithms. Our results can be used in any high level synthesis tool based on polyhedral representation of nested loop computations.