Climate change impact assessment: Uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability

Hydrologic impacts of climate change are usually assessed by downscaling the General Circulation Model (GCM) output of large-scale climate variables to local-scale hydrologic variables. Such an assessment is characterized by uncertainty resulting from the ensembles of projections generated with multiple GCMs, which is known as intermodel or GCM uncertainty. Ensemble averaging with the assignment of weights to GCMs based on model evaluation is one of the methods to address such uncertainty and is used in the present study for regional-scale impact assessment. GCM outputs of large-scale climate variables are downscaled to subdivisional-scale monsoon rainfall. Weights are assigned to the GCMs on the basis of model performance and model convergence, which are evaluated with the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) generated from the downscaled GCM output (for both 20th Century [20C3M] and future scenarios) and observed data. Ensemble averaging approach, with the assignment of weights to GCMs, is characterized by the uncertainty caused by partial ignorance, which stems from nonavailability of the outputs of some of the GCMs for a few scenarios (in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] data distribution center for Assessment Report 4 [AR4]). This uncertainty is modeled with imprecise probability, i.e., the probability being represented as an interval gray number. Furthermore, the CDF generated with one GCM is entirely different from that with another and therefore the use of multiple GCMs results in a band of CDFs. Representing this band of CDFs with a single valued weighted mean CDF may be misleading. Such a band of CDFs can only be represented with an envelope that contains all the CDFs generated with a number of GCMs. Imprecise CDF represents such an envelope, which not only contains the CDFs generated with all the available GCMs but also to an extent accounts for the uncertainty resulting from the missing GCM output. This concept of imprecise probability is also validated in the present study. The imprecise CDFs of monsoon rainfall are derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, with A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The model is demonstrated with the prediction of monsoon rainfall in Orissa meteorological subdivision, which shows a possible decreasing trend in the future.

An object-centred approach to encourage online participation in the context of behaviour change

Online groups rely on contributions from their members to flourish, but in the context of behaviour change individuals are typically reluctant to participate actively before they have changed successfully. We took inspiration from CSCW research on objects to address this problem by shifting the focus of online participation from the exchange of personal experiences to more incidental interactions mediated by objects that offer support for change. In this article we describe how we designed, deployed and studied a smartphone application that uses different objects, called distractions and tips, to facilitate social interaction amongst people trying to quit smoking. A field study with 18 smokers revealed different forms of interaction: purely instrumental interactions with the objects, subtle engagement with other users through receptive and covert interactions, as well as explicit interaction with other users through disclosure and mutual support. The distraction objects offered a stepping-stone into interaction, whereas the tips encouraged interaction with the people behind the objects. This understanding of interaction through objects complements existing frameworks of online participation and adds to the current discourse on object-centred sociality. Furthermore, it provides an alternative approach to the design of online support groups, which offers the users enhanced control about the information they share with other users. We conclude by discussing how researchers and practitioners can apply the ideas of interaction around objects to other domains where individuals may have a simultaneous desire and reluctance to interact.

Social interaction and reflection for behaviour change

This article introduces the theme issue on social interaction and reflection for behaviour change. A large body of research exists on systems designed to help users in changing their behaviours, for instance, to exercise more regularly or to reduce energy consumption. Increasingly, these systems focus on multiple users, often to encourage open-ended reflection rather than prescribing a particular course of action. As background for this theme issue, this article presents a literature review on behaviour change support systems that focus on social interaction and reflection. The review highlights five key approaches amongst these systems: social traces, social support, collective use, reflection-in-action, and reflection-on-action. Each approach offers unique benefits, but also challenges for the design of behaviour change support systems. We highlight how the articles in this theme issue contribute to our current understanding of these five approaches, and beyond that, set out some broad directions for future work.

Free vibration of rectangular plates of arbitrary thickness

Free vibration of thick rectangular plates is investigated by using the “method of initial functions” proposed by Vlasov. The governing equations are derived from the three-dimensional elastodynamic equations. They are obtained in the form of series and theories of any desired order can be constructed by deleting higher terms in the infinite order differential equations. The numerical results are compared with those of classical, Mindlin, and Lee and Reismann solutions.

Expanding the research area of behavior change support systems

The First International Workshop on Behavior Change Support Systems attracted a great research interest. The selected papers focused on abstraction, implementation and evaluation of Behavior Change Support Systems. The workshop is an evidence of how researchers from around the globe have their own perspective of behavior change interventions. In this abstract, we have attempted to outline core issues that can enhance persuasiveness of such support systems. Finally, we highlight important research questions relating to the development of effective Behavior Change Support Systems.

Things you don't want to know about yourself: Ambivalence about tracking and sharing personal information for behaviour change

Technologies that facilitate the collection and sharing of personal information can feed people's desire for enhanced self-knowledge and help them to change their behaviour, yet for various reasons people can also be reluctant to use such technologies. This paper explores this tension through an interview study in the context of smoking cessation. Our findings show that smokers and recent ex-smokers were ambivalent about their behaviour change as well as about collecting personal information through technology and sharing it with other users. We close with a summary of three challenges emerging from such ambivalence and directions to address them.

Essays on Labor Market Frictions, Technological Change and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

The dissertation consists of an introductory chapter and three essays that apply search-matching theory to study the interaction of labor market frictions, technological change and macroeconomic fluctuations. The first essay studies the impact of capital-embodied growth on equilibrium unemployment by extending a vintage capital/search model to incorporate vintage human capital. In addition to the capital obsolescence (or creative destruction) effect that tends to raise unemployment, vintage human capital introduces a skill obsolescence effect of faster growth that has the opposite sign. Faster skill obsolescence reduces the value of unemployment, hence wages and leads to more job creation and less job destruction, unambiguously reducing unemployment. The second essay studies the effect of skill biased technological change on skill mismatch and the allocation of workers and firms in the labor market. By allowing workers to invest in education, we extend a matching model with two-sided heterogeneity to incorporate an endogenous distribution of high and low skill workers. We consider various possibilities for the cost of acquiring skills and show that while unemployment increases in most scenarios, the effect on the distribution of vacancy and worker types varies according to the structure of skill costs. When the model is extended to incorporate endogenous labor market participation, we show that the unemployment rate becomes less informative of the state of the labor market as the participation margin absorbs employment effects. The third essay studies the effects of labor taxes on equilibrium labor market outcomes and macroeconomic dynamics in a New Keynesian model with matching frictions. Three policy instruments are considered: a marginal tax and a tax subsidy to produce tax progression schemes, and a replacement ratio to account for variability in outside options. In equilibrium, the marginal tax rate and replacement ratio dampen economic activity whereas tax subsidies boost the economy. The marginal tax rate and replacement ratio amplify shock responses whereas employment subsidies weaken them. The tax instruments affect the degree to which the wage absorbs shocks. We show that increasing tax progression when taxation is initially progressive is harmful for steady state employment and output, and amplifies the sensitivity of macroeconomic variables to shocks. When taxation is initially proportional, increasing progression is beneficial for output and employment and dampens shock responses.

Scar outcome of children with partial thickness burns: A 3 and 6 month follow up

INTRODUCTION There is a paucity of research investigating the scar outcome of children with partial thickness burns. The aim of this study was to assess the scar outcome of children with partial thickness burns who received a silver dressing acutely. METHOD Children aged 0-15 years with an acute partial thickness burn, ≤10% TBSA were included. Children were originally recruited for an RCT investigating three dressings for partial thickness burns. Children were assessed at 3 and 6 months after re-epithelialization. 3D photographs were taken of the burn site, POSAS was completed and skin thickness was measured using ultrasound imaging. RESULTS Forty-three children returned for 3 and 6 month follow-ups or returned a photo. Days to re-epithelialization was a significant predictor of skin/scar quality at 3 and 6 months (p<0.01). Patient-rated color and observer-rated vascularity and pigmentation POSAS scores were comparable at 3 months (color vs. vascularity 0.88, p<0.001; color vs. pigmentation 0.64, p<0.001), but patients scored higher than the observer at 6 months (color vs. vascularity 0.57, p<0.05; color vs. pigmentation 0.15, p=0.60). Burn depth was significantly correlated with skin thickness (r=0.51, p<0.01). Hypopigmentation of the burn site was present in 25.8% of children who re-epithelialized in ≤2 weeks. CONCLUSION This study has provided information on outcomes for children with partial thickness burns and highlighted a need for further education of this population.

Randomised controlled trial of three burns dressings for partial thickness burns in children

BACKGROUND This study compared the effects of three silver dressing combinations on small to medium size acute partial thickness burns in children, focusing on re-epithelialization time, pain and distress during dressing changes. METHOD Children (0-15 years) with clean, ≤ 10% total body surface area (TBSA) partial thickness burns who met the inclusion criteria were included in the study. Children received either (1) Acticoat™; (2) Acticoat™ with Mepitel™; or (3) Mepilex Ag™ dressings. Measures of burn re-epithelialization, pain, and distress were recorded at dressing changes every 3-5 days until full re-epithelialization occurred. RESULTS One hundred and three children were recruited with 96 children included for analysis. No infections were detected for the course of the study. When adjusted for burn depth, Acticoat™ significantly increased the expected days to full re-epithelialization by 40% (IRR = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.14-1.73, p < 0.01) and Acticoat™ with Mepitel™ significantly increased the expected days to full re-epithelialization by 33% (IRR = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.08-1.63, p ≤ 0.01) when compared to Mepilex Ag™. Expected FLACC scores in the Mepilex Ag™ group were 32% lower at dressing removal (p = 0.01) and 37% lower at new dressing application (p = 0.04); and scores in the Acticoat™ with Mepitel™ group were 23% lower at dressing removal (p = 0.04) and 40% lower at new dressing application (p < 0.01), in comparison to the Acticoat™ group. Expected Visual Analog Scale-Pain (VAS-P) scores were 25% lower in the Mepilex Ag™ group at dressing removal (p = 0.04) and 34% lower in the Acticoat™ with Mepitel™ group (p = 0.02) at new dressing application in comparison to the Acticoat™ group. There was no significant difference between the Mepilex Ag™ and the Acticoat™ with Mepitel™ groups at all timepoints and with any pain measure. CONCLUSION Mepilex Ag™ is an effective silver dressing, in terms of accelerated wound re-epithelialization time (compared to Acticoat™ and Acticoat™ with Mepitel™) and decreased pain during dressing changes (compared to Acticoat™), for clean, < 10% TBSA partial thickness burns in children.

A conditional random field-based downscaling method for assessment of climate change impact on multisite daily precipitation in the Mahanadi basin

Downscaling to station-scale hydrologic variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) is usually necessary to assess the hydrologic impact of climate change. This work presents CRF-downscaling, a new probabilistic downscaling method that represents the daily precipitation sequence as a conditional random field (CRF). The conditional distribution of the precipitation sequence at a site, given the daily atmospheric (large-scale) variable sequence, is modeled as a linear chain CRF. CRFs do not make assumptions on independence of observations, which gives them flexibility in using high-dimensional feature vectors. Maximum likelihood parameter estimation for the model is performed using limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) optimization. Maximum a posteriori estimation is used to determine the most likely precipitation sequence for a given set of atmospheric input variables using the Viterbi algorithm. Direct classification of dry/wet days as well as precipitation amount is achieved within a single modeling framework. The model is used to project the future cumulative distribution function of precipitation. Uncertainty in precipitation prediction is addressed through a modified Viterbi algorithm that predicts the n most likely sequences. The model is applied for downscaling monsoon (June-September) daily precipitation at eight sites in the Mahanadi basin in Orissa, India, using the MIROC3.2 medium-resolution GCM. The predicted distributions at all sites show an increase in the number of wet days, and also an increase in wet day precipitation amounts. A comparison of current and future predicted probability density functions for daily precipitation shows a change in shape of the density function with decreasing probability of lower precipitation and increasing probability of higher precipitation.

Perceptions of destinations don’t change much over time

One of the most popular topics in tourism research is destination image. That is, measuring consumers’ perceptions of a destination. The importance of the topic is a no brainer given travellers are spoilt by choice of destinations, and that the images they hold of a place are as important as the tangible tourism features. This is underpinned by the old adage perception is reality, a theory promoted by two academics back in 1928 who proposed “what people believe to be true will be real in its consequences”. So, every place marketer knows consumer perceptions play a major role in the competitiveness of their destination.

A curve shortening flow rule for closed embedded plane curves with a prescribed rate of change in enclosed area

Motivated by a problem from fluid mechanics, we consider a generalization of the standard curve shortening flow problem for a closed embedded plane curve such that the area enclosed by the curve is forced to decrease at a prescribed rate. Using formal asymptotic and numerical techniques, we derive possible extinction shapes as the curve contracts to a point, dependent on the rate of decreasing area; we find there is a wider class of extinction shapes than for standard curve shortening, for which initially simple closed curves are always asymptotically circular. We also provide numerical evidence that self-intersection is possible for non-convex initial conditions, distinguishing between pinch-off and coalescence of the curve interior.

Fraudsters change tactics as a crackdown cuts some losses due to online scams

The amount of financial loss from online fraud suffered by people in Western Australia has almost halved, dropping from A$16.8 million in 2014 to A$9.8 million for 2015, according to a statement this January from the state’s Attorney General and Minister for Commerce, Michael Mischin. In addition, the minister noted that losses from relationship and dating fraud have fallen by 55%, to A$4.9 million lost last year. These are both impressive claims, and at face value, there is truth to the statistics. Both assertions are based on data received by WA’s Scamnet, which is the public interface between consumer protection and citizens. While it is good to see a reduction in the number of losses overall, particularly to relationship and dating fraud, it is highly unlikely that the statistics tell the full story.

Free vibration of rectangular plates of arbitrary thickness with one or more edges clamped

Frequencies of free vibration of rectangular plates of arbitrary thickness, with different support conditions, are calculated by using the Method of Initial Functions (MIF), proposed by Vlasov. Sixth and fourth order MIF theories are used for the solution. Numerical results are presented for three square plates for three thickness ratios. The support conditions considered are (i) three sides simply supported and one side clamped, (ii) two opposite sides simply supported and the other two sides clamped and (iii) all sides clamped. It is found that the results produced by the MIF method are in fair agreement with those obtained by using other methods. The classical theory gives overestimates of the frequencies and the departures from the MIF results increase for higher modes and larger thickness ratios.