Planktonic foraminifera in the Arabian Sea

Variations in primary productivity (PP) have been reconstructed in eutrophic, mesotrophic and oligotrophic parts of the Arabian Sea over the past 135 000 years applying principal component analysis and transfer function to planktic foraminiferal assemblages. Temporal variation in paleoproductivity is most pronounced in the mesotrophic northern (NAST site) and oligotrophic eastern (EAST site) Arabian Sea, and comparatively weak in the western eutrophic GeoB 3011-1 site in the upwelling area off Oman. Higher PP during interglacials (250-320 g C/m**2 year) than during cold stages (210-270 g C/m**2 year) at GeoB 3011-1 could have been caused by a strengthened upwelling during intensified summer monsoons and increased wind velocities. At NAST, during interglacials, PP is estimated to exceed g C/m**2 year 1, and during glacials to be as low as 140-180 g C/m**2 year. These fluctuations may result from a (1) varying impact of filaments that are associated to the Oman coastal upwelling, and (2) from open-ocean upwelling associated to the Findlater Jet. At EAST, highest productivity of about 380 g C/m**2 year is documented for the transition from isotope stage 5 to 4. We suggest that during isotope stages 2, 4, 5.2, the transition 5/4, and the end of stage 6, deep mixing of surface waters was caused by moderate to strong winter monsoons, and induced an injection of nutrients into the euphotic layer leading to enhanced primary production. The deepening of the mixed layer during these intervals is confirmed by an increased concentration of deep-dwelling planktic foraminiferal species. A high-productivity event in stage 3, displayed by estimated PP values, and by planktic foraminifera and radiolaria flux and accumulation rate, likely resulted from a combination of intensified SW monsoons with moderate to strong NE monsoons. Differential response of Globigerina bulloides, Globigerinita glutinata and mixed layer species to the availability of food is suited to subdivide productivity regimes on a temporal and spatial scale.

Seasonality affects macroalgal community response to increases in pCO2

Ocean acidification is expected to alter marine systems, but there is uncertainty about its effects due to the logistical difficulties of testing its large-scale and long-term effects. Responses of biological communities to increases in carbon dioxide can be assessed at CO2 seeps that cause chronic exposure to lower seawater pH over localised areas of seabed. Shifts in macroalgal communities have been described at temperate and tropical pCO2 seeps, but temporal and spatial replication of these observations is needed to strengthen confidence our predictions, especially because very few studies have been replicated between seasons. Here we describe the seawater chemistry and seasonal variability of macroalgal communities at CO2 seeps off Methana (Aegean Sea). Monitoring from 2011 to 2013 showed that seawater pH decreased to levels predicted for the end of this century at the seep site with no confounding gradients in Total Alkalinity, salinity, temperature or wave exposure. Most nutrient levels were similar along the pH gradient; silicate increased significantly with decreasing pH, but it was not limiting for algal growth at all sites. Metal concentrations in seaweed tissues varied between sites but did not consistently increase with pCO2. Our data on the flora are consistent with results from laboratory experiments and observations at Mediterranean CO2 seep sites in that benthic communities decreased in calcifying algal cover and increased in brown algal cover with increasing pCO2. This differs from the typical macroalgal community response to stress, which is a decrease in perennial brown algae and proliferation of opportunistic green algae. Cystoseira corniculata was more abundant in autumn and Sargassum vulgare in spring, whereas the articulated coralline alga Jania rubens was more abundant at reference sites in autumn. Diversity decreased with increasing CO2 regardless of season. Our results show that benthic community responses to ocean acidification are strongly affected by season.

Precipitation over sea: Validation against shipboard in-situ measurements

The satellite derived HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite data) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-Interim reanalysis data sets have been validated against in-situ precipitation measurements from ship rain gauges and optical disdrometers over the open-ocean by applying a statistical analysis for binary forecasts. For this purpose collocated pairs of data were merged within a certain temporal and spatial threshold into single events, according to the satellites' overpass, the observation and the forecast times. HOAPS detects the frequency of precipitation well, while ERA-Interim strongly overestimates it, especially in the tropics and subtropics. Although precipitation rates are difficult to compare because along-track point measurements are collocated with areal estimates and the numbers of available data are limited, we find that HOAPS underestimates precipitation rates, while ERA-Interim's Atlantic-wide average precipitation rate is close to measurements. However, regionally averaged over latitudinal belts, there are deviations between the observed mean precipitation rates and ERA-Interim. The most obvious ERA-Interim feature is an overestimation of precipitation in the area of the intertropical convergence zone and the southern sub-tropics over the Atlantic Ocean. For a limited number of snow measurements by optical disdrometers it can be concluded that both HOAPS and ERA-Interim are suitable to detect the occurrence of solid precipitation.

Land Surface Temperature continuous time series from SSM/I passive microwave radiometers, over northern latitudes (Latitudes > 45°N), during summer snow free period (2000-2011), with links to NetCDF files

Remote sensing instruments are key players to map land surface temperature (LST) at large temporal and spatial scales. In this paper, we present how we combine passive microwave and thermal infrared data to estimate LST during summer snow-free periods over northern high latitudes. The methodology is based on the SSM/I-SSMIS 37 GHz measurements at both vertical and horizontal polarizations on a 25 km × 25 km grid size. LST is retrieved from brightness temperatures introducing an empirical linear relationship between emissivities at both polarizations as described in Royer and Poirier (2010). This relationship is calibrated at pixel scale, using cloud-free independent LST data from MODIS instruments. The SSM/I-SSMIS and MODIS data are synchronized by fitting a diurnal cycle model built on skin temperature reanalysis provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The resulting temperature dataset is provided at 25 km scale and at an hourly time step during the ten-year analysis period (2000-2011). This new product was locally evaluated at five experimental sites of the EU-PAGE21 project against air temperature measurements and meteorological model reanalysis, and compared to the MODIS LST product at both local and circumpolar scale. The results giving a mean RMSE of the order of 2.2 K demonstrate the usefulness of the microwave product, which is unaffected by clouds as opposed to thermal infrared products and offers a better resolution compared to model reanalysis.

Linear global instability of non-orthogonal incompressible swept attachment-line boundary layer flow

Instability of the orthogonal swept attachment line boundary layer has received attention by local1, 2 and global3–5 analysis methods over several decades, owing to the significance of this model to transition to turbulence on the surface of swept wings. However, substantially less attention has been paid to the problem of laminar flow instability in the non-orthogonal swept attachment-line boundary layer; only a local analysis framework has been employed to-date.6 The present contribution addresses this issue from a linear global (BiGlobal) instability analysis point of view in the incompressible regime. Direct numerical simulations have also been performed in order to verify the analysis results and unravel the limits of validity of the Dorrepaal basic flow7 model analyzed. Cross-validated results document the effect of the angle _ on the critical conditions identified by Hall et al.1 and show linear destabilization of the flow with decreasing AoA, up to a limit at which the assumptions of the Dorrepaal model become questionable. Finally, a simple extension of the extended G¨ortler-H¨ammerlin ODE-based polynomial model proposed by Theofilis et al.4 is presented for the non-orthogonal flow. In this model, the symmetries of the three-dimensional disturbances are broken by the non-orthogonal flow conditions. Temporal and spatial one-dimensional linear eigenvalue codes were developed, obtaining consistent results with BiGlobal stability analysis and DNS. Beyond the computational advantages presented by the ODE-based model, it allows us to understand the functional dependence of the three-dimensional disturbances in the non-orthogonal case as well as their connections with the disturbances of the orthogonal stability problem.

Extreme temperature events analyzed with Fast Fourier Transform

Extreme weather and climate events have received increased attention in the last few years, due to the often large loss of agriculture business and exponentially increasing costs associated with them and insurance planning. This increased attention raises the question as to whether extreme weather and climate events are truly increasing, whether this is only a perceived increase exacerbated by enhanced media coverage, or both. There are a number of ways extreme climate events can be defined, such as extreme daily temperatures, extreme daily rainfall amounts, and large areas experiencing unusually warm monthly temperatures, among others. In this study, we will focus our attention in frost and heatstroke events measuring it as the number of days under 0 ºC and number of days with daily maximum over 30ºC monthly respectively. We have studied the trends in these extreme events applying a Fast Fourier Transform to the series to clarify the tendency. Lack of long-term climate data suitable for analysis of extremes is the single biggest obstacle to quantifying whether extreme events have changed over the twentieth century, including high temporal and spatial resolution observations of temperatures. However, several series have been grouped in different ways: chosen the longest series independently, by provinces, by main watersheds and altitude. On the other hand, synthetic series generated by Luna and Balairón (AEMet) were also analyzed. The results obtained by different pooling data are discussed concluding the difficulties to assess the extreme events tendencies and high regional variation in the trends.

Modelización de costas rocosas acantiladas

El retroceso de las costas acantiladas es un fenómeno muy extendido sobre los litorales rocosos expuestos a la incidencia combinada de los procesos marinos y meteorológicos que se dan en la franja costera. Este fenómeno se revela violentamente como movimientos gravitacionales del terreno esporádicos, pudiendo causar pérdidas materiales y/o humanas. Aunque el conocimiento de estos riesgos de erosión resulta de vital importancia para la correcta gestión de la costa, el desarrollo de modelos predictivos se encuentra limitado desde el punto de vista geomorfológico debido a la complejidad e interacción de los procesos de desarrollo espacio-temporal que tienen lugar en la zona costera. Los modelos de predicción publicados son escasos y con importantes inconvenientes: a) extrapolación, extienden la información de registros históricos; b) empíricos, sobre registros históricos estudian la respuesta al cambio de un parámetro; c) estocásticos, determinan la cadencia y magnitud de los eventos futuros extrapolando las distribuciones de probabilidad extraídas de catálogos históricos; d) proceso-respuesta, de estabilidad y propagación del error inexplorada; e) en Ecuaciones en Derivadas Parciales, computacionalmente costosos y poco exactos. La primera parte de esta tesis detalla las principales características de los modelos más recientes de cada tipo y, para los más habitualmente utilizados, se indican sus rangos de aplicación, ventajas e inconvenientes. Finalmente como síntesis de los procesos más relevantes que contemplan los modelos revisados, se presenta un diagrama conceptual de la recesión costera, donde se recogen los procesos más influyentes que deben ser tenidos en cuenta, a la hora de utilizar o crear un modelo de recesión costera con el objetivo de evaluar la peligrosidad (tiempo/frecuencia) del fenómeno a medio-corto plazo. En esta tesis se desarrolla un modelo de proceso-respuesta de retroceso de acantilados costeros que incorpora el comportamiento geomecánico de materiales cuya resistencia a compresión no supere los 5 MPa. El modelo simula la evolución espaciotemporal de un perfil-2D del acantilado que puede estar formado por materiales heterogéneos. Para ello, se acoplan la dinámica marina: nivel medio del mar, cambios en el nivel medio del lago, mareas y oleaje; con la evolución del terreno: erosión, desprendimiento rocoso y formación de talud de derrubios. El modelo en sus diferentes variantes es capaz de incluir el análisis de la estabilidad geomecánica de los materiales, el efecto de los derrubios presentes al pie del acantilado, el efecto del agua subterránea, la playa, el run-up, cambios en el nivel medio del mar o cambios (estacionales o interanuales) en el nivel medio de la masa de agua (lagos). Se ha estudiado el error de discretización del modelo y su propagación en el tiempo a partir de las soluciones exactas para los dos primeros periodos de marea para diferentes aproximaciones numéricas tanto en tiempo como en espacio. Los resultados obtenidos han permitido justificar las elecciones que minimizan el error y los métodos de aproximación más adecuados para su posterior uso en la modelización. El modelo ha sido validado frente a datos reales en la costa de Holderness, Yorkshire, Reino Unido; y en la costa norte del lago Erie, Ontario, Canadá. Los resultados obtenidos presentan un importante avance en los modelos de recesión costera, especialmente en su relación con las condiciones geomecánicas del medio, la influencia del agua subterránea, la verticalización de los perfiles rocosos y su respuesta ante condiciones variables producidas por el cambio climático (por ejemplo, nivel medio del mar, cambios en los niveles de lago, etc.). The recession of coastal cliffs is a widespread phenomenon on the rocky shores that are exposed to the combined incidence of marine and meteorological processes that occur in the shoreline. This phenomenon is revealed violently and occasionally, as gravitational movements of the ground and can cause material or human losses. Although knowledge of the risks of erosion is vital for the proper management of the coast, the development of cliff erosion predictive models is limited by the complex interactions between environmental processes and material properties over a range of temporal and spatial scales. Published prediction models are scarce and present important drawbacks: extrapolation, that extend historical records to the future; empirical, that based on historical records studies the system response against the change in one parameter; stochastic, that represent of cliff behaviour based on assumptions regarding the magnitude and frequency of events in a probabilistic framework based on historical records; process-response, stability and error propagation unexplored; PDE´s, highly computationally expensive and not very accurate. The first part of this thesis describes the main features of the latest models of each type and, for the most commonly used, their ranges of application, advantages and disadvantages are given. Finally as a synthesis of the most relevant processes that include the revised models, a conceptual diagram of coastal recession is presented. This conceptual model includes the most influential processes that must be taken into account when using or creating a model of coastal recession to evaluate the dangerousness (time/frequency) of the phenomenon to medium-short term. A new process-response coastal recession model developed in this thesis has been designed to incorporate the behavioural and mechanical characteristics of coastal cliffs which are composed of with materials whose compressive strength is less than 5 MPa. The model simulates the spatial and temporal evolution of a cliff-2D profile that can consist of heterogeneous materials. To do so, marine dynamics: mean sea level, waves, tides, lake seasonal changes; is coupled with the evolution of land recession: erosion, cliff face failure and associated protective colluvial wedge. The model in its different variants can include analysis of material geomechanical stability, the effect of debris present at the cliff foot, groundwater effects, beach and run-up effects, changes in the mean sea level or changes (seasonal or inter-annual) in the mean lake level. Computational implementation and study of different numerical resolution techniques, in both time and space approximations, and the produced errors are exposed and analysed for the first two tidal periods. The results obtained in the errors analysis allow us to operate the model with a configuration that minimizes the error of the approximation methods. The model is validated through profile evolution assessment at various locations of coastline retreat on the Holderness Coast, Yorkshire, UK and on the north coast of Lake Erie, Ontario, Canada. The results represent an important stepforward in linking material properties to the processes of cliff recession, in considering the effect of groundwater charge and the slope oversteeping and their response to changing conditions caused by climate change (i.e. sea level, changes in lakes levels, etc.).

Optimal fits of diffusion constants from single-time data points of Brownian trajectories

Experimental methods based on single particle tracking (SPT) are being increasingly employed in the physical and biological sciences, where nanoscale objects are visualized with high temporal and spatial resolution. SPT can probe interactions between a particle and its environment but the price to be paid is the absence of ensemble averaging and a consequent lack of statistics. Here we address the benchmark question of how to accurately extract the diffusion constant of one single Brownian trajectory. We analyze a class of estimators based on weighted functionals of the square displacement. For a certain choice of the weight function these functionals provide the true ensemble averaged diffusion coefficient, with a precision that increases with the trajectory resolution.