System failure prediction through rare-events elastic-net logistic regression

Predicting failures in a distributed system based on previous events through logistic regression is a standard approach in literature. This technique is not reliable, though, in two situations: in the prediction of rare events, which do not appear in enough proportion for the algorithm to capture, and in environments where there are too many variables, as logistic regression tends to overfit on this situations; while manually selecting a subset of variables to create the model is error- prone. On this paper, we solve an industrial research case that presented this situation with a combination of elastic net logistic regression, a method that allows us to automatically select useful variables, a process of cross-validation on top of it and the application of a rare events prediction technique to reduce computation time. This process provides two layers of cross- validation that automatically obtain the optimal model complexity and the optimal mode l parameters values, while ensuring even rare events will be correctly predicted with a low amount of training instances. We tested this method against real industrial data, obtaining a total of 60 out of 80 possible models with a 90% average model accuracy.

Sacra Rituum Congregatione Emo & Rmo Domino Card. Antonio ab Auria valentina beatificationis [et] canonizationis Ven. Servi Dei Joannis de Ribera Patriarchae Antiocheni & Archiepiscopi Valentini Nova positio super miraculis [Texto impreso]

Marca tip. en port.

Sacra Rituum Congregatione Emo & Rmo Domino Card. Antonio ab Auria Valentina Beatificationis [et] Canonizationis Ven. Servi Dei Joannis de Ribera ... [Texto impreso] Positio super miraculis

Marca tip. en port

Peritissimi viri F. Fran. Lecheti de Brixia ... in Io. Duns Scotum super primo senten. clarissima commentaria in geniosarum difficultatum perpulcre dilucidationes, apparentium prelibati Scoti contradictionum solutiones, demum opinionum multarum scotice dogmati obuiantium destructiones feliciter incipiunt [Texto impreso]

Pie de imprenta tomado de colofón

R.P.D. Ursino Valentina Vicariae Lunae 10 Ianuarij 1695, Reintegrata hodie disputatione super articulo [Texto impreso]

Tít. tomado de comienzo de texto

Casus longi super sexto libro Decretalium et super Clementinis [Texto impreso]

Tit. tomado del Craviotto II, 4895

Nonlinear seismic behaviour of concrete arch bridges

Arch bridge structural solution has been known for centuries, in fact the simple nature of arch that require low tension and shear strength was an advantage as the simple materials like stone and brick were the only option back in ancient centuries. By the pass of time especially after industrial revolution, the new materials were adopted in construction of arch bridges to reach longer spans. Nowadays one long span arch bridge is made of steel, concrete or combination of these two as "CFST", as the result of using these high strength materials, very long spans can be achieved. The current record for longest arch belongs to Chaotianmen bridge over Yangtze river in China with 552 meters span made of steel and the longest reinforced concrete type is Wanxian bridge which also cross the Yangtze river through a 420 meters span. Today the designer is no longer limited by span length as long as arch bridge is the most applicable solution among other approaches, i.e. cable stayed and suspended bridges are more reasonable if very long span is desired. Like any super structure, the economical and architectural aspects in construction of a bridge is extremely important, in other words, as a narrower bridge has better appearance, it also require smaller volume of material which make the design more economical. Design of such bridge, beside the high strength materials, requires precise structural analysis approaches capable of integrating the combination of material behaviour and complex geometry of structure and various types of loads which may be applied to bridge during its service life. Depend on the design strategy, analysis may only evaluates the linear elastic behaviour of structure or consider the nonlinear properties as well. Although most of structures in the past were designed to act in their elastic range, the rapid increase in computational capacity allow us to consider different sources of nonlinearities in order to achieve a more realistic evaluations where the dynamic behaviour of bridge is important especially in seismic zones where large movements may occur or structure experience P - _ effect during the earthquake. The above mentioned type of analysis is computationally expensive and very time consuming. In recent years, several methods were proposed in order to resolve this problem. Discussion of recent developments on these methods and their application on long span concrete arch bridges is the main goal of this research. Accordingly available long span concrete arch bridges have been studied to gather the critical information about their geometrical aspects and properties of their materials. Based on concluded information, several concrete arch bridges were designed for further studies. The main span of these bridges range from 100 to 400 meters. The Structural analysis methods implemented in in this study are as following: Elastic Analysis: Direct Response History Analysis (DRHA): This method solves the direct equation of motion over time history of applied acceleration or imposed load in linear elastic range. Modal Response History Analysis (MRHA): Similar to DRHA, this method is also based on time history, but the equation of motion is simplified to single degree of freedom system and calculates the response of each mode independently. Performing this analysis require less time than DRHA. Modal Response Spectrum Analysis (MRSA): As it is obvious from its name, this method calculates the peak response of structure for each mode and combine them using modal combination rules based on the introduced spectra of ground motion. This method is expected to be fastest among Elastic analysis. Inelastic Analysis: Nonlinear Response History Analysis (NL-RHA): The most accurate strategy to address significant nonlinearities in structural dynamics is undoubtedly the nonlinear response history analysis which is similar to DRHA but extended to inelastic range by updating the stiffness matrix for every iteration. This onerous task, clearly increase the computational cost especially for unsymmetrical buildings that requires to be analyzed in a full 3D model for taking the torsional effects in to consideration. Modal Pushover Analysis (MPA): The Modal Pushover Analysis is basically the MRHA but extended to inelastic stage. After all, the MRHA cannot solve the system of dynamics because the resisting force fs(u; u_ ) is unknown for inelastic stage. The solution of MPA for this obstacle is using the previously recorded fs to evaluate system of dynamics. Extended Modal Pushover Analysis (EMPA): Expanded Modal pushover is a one of very recent proposed methods which evaluates response of structure under multi-directional excitation using the modal pushover analysis strategy. In one specific mode,the original pushover neglect the contribution of the directions different than characteristic one, this is reasonable in regular symmetric building but a structure with complex shape like long span arch bridges may go through strong modal coupling. This method intend to consider modal coupling while it take same time of computation as MPA. Coupled Nonlinear Static Pushover Analysis (CNSP): The EMPA includes the contribution of non-characteristic direction to the formal MPA procedure. However the static pushovers in EMPA are performed individually for every mode, accordingly the resulted values from different modes can be combined but this is only valid in elastic phase; as soon as any element in structure starts yielding the neutral axis of that section is no longer fixed for both response during the earthquake, meaning the longitudinal deflection unavoidably affect the transverse one or vice versa. To overcome this drawback, the CNSP suggests executing pushover analysis for governing modes of each direction at the same time. This strategy is estimated to be more accurate than MPA and EMPA, moreover the calculation time is reduced because only one pushover analysis is required. Regardless of the strategy, the accuracy of structural analysis is highly dependent on modelling and numerical integration approaches used in evaluation of each method. Therefore the widely used Finite Element Method is implemented in process of all analysis performed in this research. In order to address the study, chapter 2, starts with gathered information about constructed long span arch bridges, this chapter continuous with geometrical and material definition of new models. Chapter 3 provides the detailed information about structural analysis strategies; furthermore the step by step description of procedure of all methods is available in Appendix A. The document ends with the description of results and conclusion of chapter 4.

Determining the elastic-plastic properties of metallic materials through instrumented indentation

En los últimos años, y asociado al desarrollo de la tecnología MEMS, la técnica de indentación instrumentada se ha convertido en un método de ensayo no destructivo ampliamente utilizado para hallar las características elástico-plásticas de recubrimientos y capas delgadas, desde la escala macroscópica a la microscópica. Sin embargo, debido al complejo mecanismo de contacto debajo de la indentación, es urgente proponer un método más simple y conveniente para obtener unos resultados comparables con otras mediciones tradicionales. En este estudio, el objetivo es mejorar el procedimiento analítico para extraer las propiedades elástico-plásticas del material mediante la técnica de indentación instrumentada. La primera parte se centra en la metodología llevada a cabo para medir las propiedades elásticas de los materiales elásticos, presentándose una nueva metodología de indentación, basada en la evolución de la rigidez de contacto y en la curva fuerza-desplazamiento del ensayo de indentación. El método propuesto permite discriminar los valores de indentación experimental que pudieran estar afectados por el redondeo de la punta del indentador. Además, esta técnica parece ser robusta y permite obtener valores fiables del modulo elástico. La segunda parte se centra en el proceso analítico para determinar la curva tensión-deformación a partir del ensayo de indentación, empleando un indentador esférico. Para poder asemejar la curva tension-deformación de indentación con la que se obtendría de un ensayo de tracción, Tabor determinó empíricamente un factor de constricción de la tensión () y un factor de constricción de la deformación (). Sin embargo, la elección del valor de y  necesitan una derivación analítica. Se describió analíticamente una nueva visión de la relación entre los factores de constricción de tensión y la deformación basado en la deducción de la ecuación de Tabor. Un modelo de elementos finitos y un diseño experimental se realizan para evaluar estos factores de constricción. A partir de los resultados obtenidos, las curvas tension-deformación extraidas de los ensayos de indentación esférica, afectadas por los correspondientes factores de constricción de tension y deformación, se ajustaron a la curva nominal tensión-deformación obtenida de ensayos de tracción convencionales. En la última parte, se estudian las propiedades del revestimiento de cermet Inconel 625-Cr3C2 que es depositado en el medio de una aleación de acero mediante un láser. Las propiedades mecánicas de la matriz de cermet son estudiadas mediante la técnica de indentación instrumentada, haciendo uso de las metodologías propuestas en el presente trabajo. In recent years, along with the development of MEMS technology, instrumented indentation, as one type of a non-destructive measurement technique, is widely used to characterize the elastic and plastic properties of metallic materials from the macro to the micro scale. However, due to the complex contact mechanisms under the indentation tip, it is necessary to propose a more convenient and simple method of instrumented indention to obtain comparable results from other conventional measurements. In this study, the aim is to improve the analytical procedure for extracting the elastic plastic properties of metallic materials by instrumented indentation. The first part focuses on the methodology for measuring the elastic properties of metallic materials. An alternative instrumented indentation methodology is presented. Based on the evolution of the contact stiffness and indentation load versus the depth of penetration, the possibility of obtaining the actual elastic modulus of an elastic-plastic bulk material through instrumented sharp indentation tests has been explored. The proposed methodology allows correcting the effect of the rounding of the indenter tip on the experimental indentation data. Additionally, this technique does not seem too sensitive to the pile-up phenomenon and allows obtaining convincing values of the elastic modulus. In the second part, an analytical procedure is proposed to determine the representative stress-strain curve from the spherical indentation. Tabor has determined the stress constraint factor (stress CF), and strain constraint factor (strain CF), empirically but the choice of a value for and is debatable and lacks analytical derivation. A new insight into the relationship between stress and strain constraint factors is analytically described based on the formulation of Tabor’s equation. Finite element model and experimental tests have been carried out to evaluate these constraint factors. From the results, representative stress-strain curves using the proposed strain constraint factor fit better with the nominal stress-strain curve than those using Tabor’s constraint factors. In the last part, the mechanical properties of an Inconel 625-Cr3C2 cermet coating which is deposited onto a medium alloy steel by laser cladding has been studied. The elastic and plastic mechanical properties of the cermet matrix are studied using depth-sensing indentation (DSI) on the micro scale.

Nepfix: on-demand cloud elastic simulation of networks of evolutionary processors

Una Red de Procesadores Evolutivos o NEP (por sus siglas en ingles), es un modelo computacional inspirado por el modelo evolutivo de las celulas, específicamente por las reglas de multiplicación de las mismas. Esta inspiración hace que el modelo sea una abstracción sintactica de la manipulation de information de las celulas. En particu¬lar, una NEP define una maquina de cómputo teorica capaz de resolver problemas NP completos de manera eficiente en tóerminos de tiempo. En la praóctica, se espera que las NEP simuladas en móaquinas computacionales convencionales puedan resolver prob¬lemas reales complejos (que requieran ser altamente escalables) a cambio de una alta complejidad espacial. En el modelo NEP, las cóelulas estóan representadas por palabras que codifican sus secuencias de ADN. Informalmente, en cualquier momento de cómputo del sistema, su estado evolutivo se describe como un coleccion de palabras, donde cada una de ellas representa una celula. Estos momentos fijos de evolucion se denominan configuraciones. De manera similar al modelo biologico, las palabras (celulas) mutan y se dividen en base a bio-operaciones sencillas, pero solo aquellas palabras aptas (como ocurre de forma parecida en proceso de selection natural) seran conservadas para la siguiente configuracióon. Una NEP como herramienta de computation, define una arquitectura paralela y distribuida de procesamiento simbolico, en otras palabras, una red de procesadores de lenguajes. Desde el momento en que el modelo fue propuesto a la comunidad científica en el año 2001, múltiples variantes se han desarrollado y sus propiedades respecto a la completitud computacional, eficiencia y universalidad han sido ampliamente estudiadas y demostradas. En la actualidad, por tanto, podemos considerar que el modelo teórico NEP se encuentra en el estadio de la madurez. La motivación principal de este Proyecto de Fin de Grado, es proponer una aproxi-mación práctica que permita dar un salto del modelo teórico NEP a una implantación real que permita su ejecucion en plataformas computacionales de alto rendimiento, con el fin de solucionar problemas complejos que demanda la sociedad actual. Hasta el momento, las herramientas desarrolladas para la simulation del modelo NEP, si bien correctas y con resultados satisfactorios, normalmente estón atadas a su entorno de ejecucion, ya sea el uso de hardware específico o implementaciones particulares de un problema. En este contexto, el propósito fundamental de este trabajo es el desarrollo de Nepfix, una herramienta generica y extensible para la ejecucion de cualquier algo¬ritmo de un modelo NEP (o alguna de sus variantes), ya sea de forma local, como una aplicación tradicional, o distribuida utilizando los servicios de la nube. Nepfix es una aplicacion software desarrollada durante 7 meses y que actualmente se encuentra en su segunda iteration, una vez abandonada la fase de prototipo. Nepfix ha sido disenada como una aplicacion modular escrita en Java 8 y autocontenida, es decir, no requiere de un entorno de ejecucion específico (cualquier maquina virtual de Java es un contenedor vólido). Nepfix contiene dos componentes o móodulos. El primer móodulo corresponde a la ejecución de una NEP y es por lo tanto, el simulador. Para su desarrollo, se ha tenido en cuenta el estado actual del modelo, es decir, las definiciones de los procesadores y filtros mas comunes que conforman la familia del modelo NEP. Adicionalmente, este componente ofrece flexibilidad en la ejecucion, pudiendo ampliar las capacidades del simulador sin modificar Nepfix, usando para ello un lenguaje de scripting. Dentro del desarrollo de este componente, tambióen se ha definido un estóandar de representacióon del modelo NEP basado en el formato JSON y se propone una forma de representation y codificación de las palabras, necesaria para la comunicación entre servidores. Adicional-mente, una característica importante de este componente, es que se puede considerar una aplicacion aislada y por tanto, la estrategia de distribution y ejecución son total-mente independientes. El segundo moódulo, corresponde a la distribucióon de Nepfix en la nube. Este de-sarrollo es el resultado de un proceso de i+D, que tiene una componente científica considerable. Vale la pena resaltar el desarrollo de este modulo no solo por los resul-tados prócticos esperados, sino por el proceso de investigation que se se debe abordar con esta nueva perspectiva para la ejecución de sistemas de computación natural. La principal característica de las aplicaciones que se ejecutan en la nube es que son gestionadas por la plataforma y normalmente se encapsulan en un contenedor. En el caso de Nepfix, este contenedor es una aplicacion Spring que utiliza el protocolo HTTP o AMQP para comunicarse con el resto de instancias. Como valor añadido, Nepfix aborda dos perspectivas de implementation distintas (que han sido desarrolladas en dos iteraciones diferentes) del modelo de distribution y ejecucion, que tienen un impacto muy significativo en las capacidades y restricciones del simulador. En concreto, la primera iteration utiliza un modelo de ejecucion asincrono. En esta perspectiva asincrona, los componentes de la red NEP (procesadores y filtros) son considerados como elementos reactivos a la necesidad de procesar una palabra. Esta implementation es una optimization de una topologia comun en el modelo NEP que permite utilizar herramientas de la nube para lograr un escalado transparente (en lo ref¬erente al balance de carga entre procesadores) pero produce efectos no deseados como indeterminacion en el orden de los resultados o imposibilidad de distribuir eficiente-mente redes fuertemente interconectadas. Por otro lado, la segunda iteration corresponde al modelo de ejecucion sincrono. Los elementos de una red NEP siguen un ciclo inicio-computo-sincronizacion hasta que el problema se ha resuelto. Esta perspectiva sincrona representa fielmente al modelo teórico NEP pero el proceso de sincronizacion es costoso y requiere de infraestructura adicional. En concreto, se requiere un servidor de colas de mensajes RabbitMQ. Sin embargo, en esta perspectiva los beneficios para problemas suficientemente grandes superan a los inconvenientes, ya que la distribuciín es inmediata (no hay restricciones), aunque el proceso de escalado no es trivial. En definitiva, el concepto de Nepfix como marco computacional se puede considerar satisfactorio: la tecnología es viable y los primeros resultados confirman que las carac-terísticas que se buscaban originalmente se han conseguido. Muchos frentes quedan abiertos para futuras investigaciones. En este documento se proponen algunas aproxi-maciones a la solucion de los problemas identificados como la recuperacion de errores y la division dinamica de una NEP en diferentes subdominios. Por otra parte, otros prob-lemas, lejos del alcance de este proyecto, quedan abiertos a un futuro desarrollo como por ejemplo, la estandarización de la representación de las palabras y optimizaciones en la ejecucion del modelo síncrono. Finalmente, algunos resultados preliminares de este Proyecto de Fin de Grado han sido presentados recientemente en formato de artículo científico en la "International Work-Conference on Artificial Neural Networks (IWANN)-2015" y publicados en "Ad-vances in Computational Intelligence" volumen 9094 de "Lecture Notes in Computer Science" de Springer International Publishing. Lo anterior, es una confirmation de que este trabajo mas que un Proyecto de Fin de Grado, es solo el inicio de un trabajo que puede tener mayor repercusion en la comunidad científica. Abstract Network of Evolutionary Processors -NEP is a computational model inspired by the evolution of cell populations, which might model some properties of evolving cell communities at the syntactical level. NEP defines theoretical computing devices able to solve NP complete problems in an efficient manner. In this model, cells are represented by words which encode their DNA sequences. Informally, at any moment of time, the evolutionary system is described by a collection of words, where each word represents one cell. Cells belong to species and their community evolves according to mutations and division which are defined by operations on words. Only those cells are accepted as surviving (correct) ones which are represented by a word in a given set of words, called the genotype space of the species. This feature is analogous with the natural process of evolution. Formally, NEP is based on an architecture for parallel and distributed processing, in other words, a network of language processors. Since the date when NEP was pro¬posed, several extensions and variants have appeared engendering a new set of models named Networks of Bio-inspired Processors (NBP). During this time, several works have proved the computational power of NBP. Specifically, their efficiency, universality, and computational completeness have been thoroughly investigated. Therefore, we can say that the NEP model has reached its maturity. The main motivation for this End of Grade project (EOG project in short) is to propose a practical approximation that allows to close the gap between theoretical NEP model and a practical implementation in high performing computational platforms in order to solve some of high the high complexity problems society requires today. Up until now tools developed to simulate NEPs, while correct and successful, are usu¬ally tightly coupled to the execution environment, using specific software frameworks (Hadoop) or direct hardware usage (GPUs). Within this context the main purpose of this work is the development of Nepfix, a generic and extensible tool that aims to execute algorithms based on NEP model and compatible variants in a local way, similar to a traditional application or in a distributed cloud environment. Nepfix as an application was developed during a 7 month cycle and is undergoing its second iteration once the prototype period was abandoned. Nepfix is designed as a modular self-contained application written in Java 8, that is, no additional external dependencies are required and it does not rely on an specific execution environment, any JVM is a valid container. Nepfix is made of two components or modules. The first module corresponds to the NEP execution and therefore simulation. During the development the current state of the theoretical model was used as a reference including most common filters and processors. Additionally extensibility is provided by the use of Python as a scripting language to run custom logic. Along with the simulation a definition language for NEP has been defined based on JSON as well as a mechanisms to represent words and their possible manipulations. NEP simulator is isolated from distribution and as mentioned before different applications that include it as a dependency are possible, the distribution of NEPs is an example of this. The second module corresponds to executing Nepfix in the cloud. The development carried a heavy R&D process since this front was not explored by other research groups until now. It's important to point out that the development of this module is not focused on results at this point in time, instead we focus on feasibility and discovery of this new perspective to execute natural computing systems and NEPs specifically. The main properties of cloud applications is that they are managed by the platform and are encapsulated in a container. For Nepfix a Spring application becomes the container and the HTTP or AMQP protocols are used for communication with the rest of the instances. Different execution perspectives were studied, namely asynchronous and synchronous models were developed for solving different kind of problems using NEPs. Different limitations and restrictions manifest in both models and are explored in detail in the respective chapters. In conclusion we can consider that Nepfix as a computational framework is suc-cessful: Cloud technology is ready for the challenge and the first results reassure that the properties Nepfix project pursued were met. Many investigation branches are left open for future investigations. In this EOG implementation guidelines are proposed for some of them like error recovery or dynamic NEP splitting. On the other hand other interesting problems that were not in the scope of this project were identified during development like word representation standardization or NEP model optimizations. As a confirmation that the results of this work can be useful to the scientific com-munity a preliminary version of this project was published in The International Work- Conference on Artificial Neural Networks (IWANN) in May 2015. Development has not stopped since that point and while Nepfix in it's current state can not be consid¬ered a final product the most relevant ideas, possible problems and solutions that were produced during the seven months development cycle are worthy to be gathered and presented giving a meaning to this EOG work.

Quinta pars Abulensis Super Mattheû a decimooctavo usqz ad vigesimum primum capitulum inclusive [Texto impreso]

Autor tomado de la h. 2

Sexta pars divi abulêsis super Mattheum a vigesimosecûdo usqz ad vigesimûquartum capitulum inclusive [Texto impreso]

Hay un ejemplar encuadernado con: Quinta pars Abulensis Super Mattheû a decimooctavo usqz ad vigesimum primum capitulum inclusive (XVI/199).

The folded plate model in structural analysis. Elastic, plastic and dynamic formulations for nonprismatic structures

A specific numerical procedure for the analysis of arbitrary nonprismatic folded plate structures is presented. An elastic model is studied and compared with a harmonic solution for a prismatic structure. An extension to the plastic analysis is developed, and the influence of the structural geometry and loading pattern is analyzed. Nonprismatic practical cases, with arbitrary geometry and loading are shown, as well in the elastic range as in the plastic one. Finally, a dynamic formulation is outlined

Commentaria expositio... Hieronymi Perez... ordinis sanctae Mariae de mercede redemptionis... super primam partem summae s. Thomae Aquinatis, quantum ad ea quae concernunt primum librum sententiarum [Texto impreso]

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