Permutation-based stochastic ordering using pairwise comparisons

The topic of this work concerns nonparametric permutation-based methods aiming to find a ranking (stochastic ordering) of a given set of groups (populations), gathering together information from multiple variables under more than one experimental designs. The problem of ranking populations arises in several fields of science from the need of comparing G>2 given groups or treatments when the main goal is to find an order while taking into account several aspects. As it can be imagined, this problem is not only of theoretical interest but it also has a recognised relevance in several fields, such as industrial experiments or behavioural sciences, and this is reflected by the vast literature on the topic, although sometimes the problem is associated with different keywords such as: "stochastic ordering", "ranking", "construction of composite indices" etc., or even "ranking probabilities" outside of the strictly-speaking statistical literature. The properties of the proposed method are empirically evaluated by means of an extensive simulation study, where several aspects of interest are let to vary within a reasonable practical range. These aspects comprise: sample size, number of variables, number of groups, and distribution of noise/error. The flexibility of the approach lies mainly in the several available choices for the test-statistic and in the different types of experimental design that can be analysed. This render the method able to be tailored to the specific problem and the to nature of the data at hand. To perform the analyses an R package called SOUP (Stochastic Ordering Using Permutations) has been written and it is available on CRAN.

Messung des elektrischen Neutron-Formfaktors in der Reaktion 3 He(e,e'n)pp bei Q 2 = 1.58 (GeV/c) 2

Die elektromagnetischen Nukleon-Formfaktoren sind fundamentale Größen, welche eng mit der elektromagnetischen Struktur der Nukleonen zusammenhängen. Der Verlauf der elektrischen und magnetischen Sachs-Formfaktoren G_E und G_M gegen Q^2, das negative Quadrat des Viererimpulsübertrags im elektromagnetischen Streuprozess, steht über die Fouriertransformation in direkter Beziehung zu der räumlichen Ladungs- und Strom-Verteilung in den Nukleonen. Präzise Messungen der Formfaktoren über einen weiten Q^2-Bereich werden daher für ein quantitatives Verständnis der Nukleonstruktur benötigt.rnrnDa es keine freien Neutrontargets gibt, gestaltet sich die Messung der Neutron-Formfaktoren schwierig im Vergleich zu der Messung am Proton. Konsequenz daraus ist, dass die Genauigkeit der vorhandenen Daten von Neutron-Formfaktoren deutlich geringer ist als die von Formfaktoren des Protons; auch der vermessene Q^2-Bereich ist kleiner. Insbesondere der elektrische Sachs-Formfaktor des Neutrons G_E^n ist schwierig zu messen, da er aufgrund der verschwindenden Nettoladung des Neutrons im Verhältnis zu den übrigen Nukleon-Formfaktoren sehr klein ist. G_E^n charakterisiert die Ladungsverteilung des elektrisch neutralen Neutrons und ist damit besonders sensitiv auf die innere Struktur des Neutrons.rnrnIn der hier vorgestellten Arbeit wurde G_E^n aus Strahlhelizitätsasymmetrien in der quasielastischen Streuung vec{3He}(vec{e}, e'n)pp bei einem Impulsübertrag von Q^2 = 1.58 (GeV/c)^2 bestimmt. Die Messung fand in Mainz an der Elektronbeschleunigeranlage Mainzer Mikrotron innerhalb der A1-Kollaboration im Sommer 2008 statt. rnrnLongitudinal polarisierte Elektronen mit einer Energie von 1.508 GeV wurden an einem polarisierten ^3He-Gastarget, das als effektives, polarisiertes Neutrontarget diente, gestreut. Die gestreuten Elektronen wurden in Koinzidenz mit den herausgeschlagenen Neutronen detektiert; die Elektronen wurden in einem magnetischen Spektrometer nachgewiesen, durch den Nachweis der Neutronen in einer Matrix aus Plastikszintillatoren wurde der Beitrag der quasielastischen Streuung am Proton unterdrückt.rnrnAsymmetrien des Wirkungsquerschnitts bezüglich der Elektronhelizität sind bei Orientierung der Targetpolarisation in der Streuebene und senkrecht zum Impulsübertrag sensitiv auf G_E^n / G_M^n; mittels deren Messung kann G_E^n bestimmt werden, da der magnetische Formfaktor G_M^n mit vergleichsweise hoher Präzision bekannt ist. Zusätzliche Messungen der Asymmetrie bei einer Polarisationsorientierung parallel zum Impulsübertrag wurden genutzt, um systematische Fehler zu reduzieren.rnrnFür die Messung inklusive statistischem (stat) und systematischem (sys) Fehler ergab sich G_E^n = 0.0244 +/- 0.0057_stat +/- 0.0016_sys.

Zur Karbonatsedimentologie, Biofazies und sequenzstratigraphischen Architektur eines fossilen Hochenergie-Schelfs aus dem Neogen der Algarve (Miozän, Südportugal)

Die neogene Lagos-Portimão Formation (Unter- bis Mittelmiozän) bildet einen Teil der Steilküste der Algarve (S-Portugal) und besteht aus einer zyklischen Wechsellagerung von Karbonaten und Sand-steinen. Die vorliegende Arbeit bietet ein Modell zur sedimentologischen, faziellen und stratigraphischen Entwicklung dieser Einheit an. Basierend auf Profilen entlang der gesamten lateralen Erstreckung der Einheit wurden verschiedene Gelände- und Labormethoden angewandt, um ein Modell entwickeln zu können. Messungen des Sr87/86-Isotopenverhältnisses sollten Klarheit bezüglich der stratigraphischen Position bringen. Die laterale Korrelation der Profile erfolgte über lithologische und fazielle Ansprachen. Unterstützend wurden einzelne Profile mit einem tragbaren Gammaray-Spektrometer gemessen. Es wurden vier Leithorizonte etabliert, die sich durch fazielle Merkmale und spezielle Fossilführung defi-nieren lassen. Die Mikrofazies wurde qualitativ und quantitativ analysiert. Als statistisches Verfahren wurde unter anderem eine hierarchische Clusteranalyse durchgeführt, über welche fünf Biofaziestypen des warm-temperierten Klimabereichs unterschieden werden. Die Fossilführung wird von Mollusken, Bryozoen und Rotalgen dominiert. Ausnahmen bilden stratigraphisch isolierte Vorkommen von kolo-nialen Korallen, die jedoch keine Riffkörper aufbauen. Die Ergebnisse aller zuvor erwähnten Untersuchungen deuten auf Ablagerungen eines nicht-tropischen Hochenergie-Schelfs hin. Sedimentäre Zyklen sind oftmals unvollständig, es treten Hartgründe und Auf-arbeitungs- bzw- Kondesationshorizonte auf. Die geochemische Altersdatierung weist Alterssprünge und -inversionen auf. Ein Vergleich mit dem SW-australischen Schelf und dem von James et al. (1994) eingeführten Modell des shaved shelf bietet sich aufgrund der Ähnlichkeit der Sedimentgesteine und des ozeanographischen Settings an. Weiterhin werden zeitgleiche bzw. faziell ähnliche Becken vergleichend diskutiert. Das Sedimentationsgeschehen der Lagos-Portimão Formation wird maßgeblich durch eine halokinetisch bedingte unregelmäßige Subsidenz und Hebung beeinflußt. Der Salzdom von Albufeira war während der Sedimentation der Einheit mehrfach in Bewegung. Rutschungspakete, Entlastungsspalten und Sanddikes zeugen davon. Die sequenzstratigraphische Interpretation bietet einen neuen Ansatz, in dem sie von Hochstand-Sandsteinen und Tiefstand-Karbonaten ausgeht.

Analisi del degassamento di CO2 diffuso dal suolo presso la Solfatara di Pozzuoli (Napoli, Italia): Misura, mapping e quantificazione del flusso totale.

Il presente lavoro ha come obiettivo la descrizione dello studio del degassamento diffuso di CO2 (acquisizione dei dati e loro trattazione) effettuato nell'area vulcanica dei Campi Flegrei (NA), nello specifico nell'area della Solfatara di Pozzuoli. Questo infatti rappresenta attualmente il punto di massimo rilascio di fluidi ed energia dell'intero Distretto Vulcanico Flegreo attraverso attività quali fumarole e degassamento diffuso dal suolo, nonché deformazioni del terreno (bradisismo). Tramite l'acquisizione dei valori di flusso diffuso e delle temperature dei primi 10 cm di suolo, attraverso una trattazione dei dati statistica e geostatistica, è stato possibile distinguere e caratterizzare le sorgenti di CO2 (biologica o vulcanica), la realizzazione di sviluppo di mappe di probabilità e di flusso medio e la quantificazione dell'output totale giornaliero di CO2. Il lavoro è stato suddiviso in due fasi principali: 1. La prima fase ha riguardato l'acquisizione dei dati sul campo nei giorni 19 e 20 marzo 2015, tramite l'utilizzo di una camera d'accumulo ed un termometro munito di sonda, in 434 punti all'interno del cratere della Solfatara e nelle aree circostanti. 2. Nella seconda fase sono stati elaborati i dati, utilizzando il metodo statistico GSA (Graphical Statistic Approach) ed il metodo geostatistico della simulazione sequenziale Gaussiana (sGs). Tramite il GSA è stato possibile ripartire i dati in popolazioni e definire una media (con relativa varianza) per ognuna di esse. Con la sGs è stato possibile trattare i dati, considerando la loro distribuzione spaziale, per simulare valori per le aree prive di misurazioni; ciò ha permesso di generare delle mappe che mostrassero l'andamento dei flussi e la geometria della struttura del degassamento diffuso (Diffuse Degassing Structure, DDS; Chiodini et al., 2001). Infine i dati ottenuti sono stati confrontati con i risultati di precedenti studi e si è messo in relazione la geometria e l'intensità di degassamento con la geologia strutturale dell'area flegrea indagata.

Relationship between the logistic EuroSCORE and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score in patients implanted with the CoreValve ReValving system--a Bern-Rotterdam Study

Background Surgical risk scores, such as the logistic EuroSCORE (LES) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS) score, are commonly used to identify high-risk or “inoperable” patients for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). In Europe, the LES plays an important role in selecting patients for implantation with the Medtronic CoreValve System. What is less clear, however, is the role of the STS score of these patients and the relationship between the LES and STS. Objective The purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between LES and STS scores and their performance characteristics in high-risk surgical patients implanted with the Medtronic CoreValve System. Methods All consecutive patients (n = 168) in whom a CoreValve bioprosthesis was implanted between November 2005 and June 2009 at 2 centers (Bern University Hospital, Bern, Switzerland, and Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands) were included for analysis. Patient demographics were recorded in a prospective database. Logistic EuroSCORE and STS scores were calculated on a prospective and retrospective basis, respectively. Results Observed mortality was 11.1%. The mean LES was 3 times higher than the mean STS score (LES 20.2% ± 13.9% vs STS 6.7% ± 5.8%). Based on the various LES and STS cutoff values used in previous and ongoing TAVI trials, 53% of patients had an LES ≥15%, 16% had an STS ≥10%, and 40% had an LES ≥20% or STS ≥10%. Pearson correlation coefficient revealed a reasonable (moderate) linear relationship between the LES and STS scores, r = 0.58, P < .001. Although the STS score outperformed the LES, both models had suboptimal discriminatory power (c-statistic, 0.49 for LES and 0.69 for STS) and calibration. Conclusions Clinical judgment and the Heart Team concept should play a key role in selecting patients for TAVI, whereas currently available surgical risk score algorithms should be used to guide clinical decision making.

Predicting the pathogen of diabetic toe osteomyelitis by two consecutive ulcer cultures with bone contact

In this study, we investigate the accuracy of two consecutive ulcer cultures with bone contact compared to bone biopsy for the diagnosis of diabetic toe osteomyelitis. The same nurse and orthopaedic surgeon obtained all samples: sample A-1: bone contact swabbing through the ulcer; sample A-2: a second culture swabbing from the bone surface within 24 h; sample B: surgical bone biopsy in the operating theatre. The kappa statistic measure between samples A-1 and A-2 (bone contact swabs) indicated 82.35% agreement. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the two samples A compared to B were 96%, 79%, 92% and 88%, respectively, for the causative pathogen. These results were similar with prior antibiotic treatment, discordant bone surface swabs or with monomicrobial infections. As a conclusion, two consecutive diabetic toe cultures with bone contact accurately predict the pathogen of diabetic toe osteomyelitis in 90% of cases.

Validation of the Asthma Predictive Index and comparison with simpler clinical prediction rules

Background The loose and stringent Asthma Predictive Indices (API), developed in Tucson, are popular rules to predict asthma in preschool children. To be clinically useful, they require validation in different settings. Objective To assess the predictive performance of the API in an independent population and compare it with simpler rules based only on preschool wheeze. Methods We studied 1954 children of the population-based Leicester Respiratory Cohort, followed up from age 1 to 10 years. The API and frequency of wheeze were assessed at age 3 years, and we determined their association with asthma at ages 7 and 10 years by using logistic regression. We computed test characteristics and measures of predictive performance to validate the API and compare it with simpler rules. Results The ability of the API to predict asthma in Leicester was comparable to Tucson: for the loose API, odds ratios for asthma at age 7 years were 5.2 in Leicester (5.5 in Tucson), and positive predictive values were 26% (26%). For the stringent API, these values were 8.2 (9.8) and 40% (48%). For the simpler rule early wheeze, corresponding values were 5.4 and 21%; for early frequent wheeze, 6.7 and 36%. The discriminative ability of all prediction rules was moderate (c statistic ≤ 0.7) and overall predictive performance low (scaled Brier score < 20%). Conclusion Predictive performance of the API in Leicester, although comparable to the original study, was modest and similar to prediction based only on preschool wheeze. This highlights the need for better prediction rules.

A prediction model for assessing residential radon concentration in Switzerland

Indoor radon is regularly measured in Switzerland. However, a nationwide model to predict residential radon levels has not been developed. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to assess indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland. The model was based on 44,631 measurements from the nationwide Swiss radon database collected between 1994 and 2004. Of these, 80% randomly selected measurements were used for model development and the remaining 20% for an independent model validation. A multivariable log-linear regression model was fitted and relevant predictors selected according to evidence from the literature, the adjusted R², the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The prediction model was evaluated by calculating Spearman rank correlation between measured and predicted values. Additionally, the predicted values were categorised into three categories (50th, 50th-90th and 90th percentile) and compared with measured categories using a weighted Kappa statistic. The most relevant predictors for indoor radon levels were tectonic units and year of construction of the building, followed by soil texture, degree of urbanisation, floor of the building where the measurement was taken and housing type (P-values <0.001 for all). Mean predicted radon values (geometric mean) were 66 Bq/m³ (interquartile range 40-111 Bq/m³) in the lowest exposure category, 126 Bq/m³ (69-215 Bq/m³) in the medium category, and 219 Bq/m³ (108-427 Bq/m³) in the highest category. Spearman correlation between predictions and measurements was 0.45 (95%-CI: 0.44; 0.46) for the development dataset and 0.44 (95%-CI: 0.42; 0.46) for the validation dataset. Kappa coefficients were 0.31 for the development and 0.30 for the validation dataset, respectively. The model explained 20% overall variability (adjusted R²). In conclusion, this residential radon prediction model, based on a large number of measurements, was demonstrated to be robust through validation with an independent dataset. The model is appropriate for predicting radon level exposure of the Swiss population in epidemiological research. Nevertheless, some exposure misclassification and regression to the mean is unavoidable and should be taken into account in future applications of the model.

Rwandan youth in the development of music industry

In this days for ever, the Rwandan youth are more active in the development of music industry, the recording studio are created every day, and the number of musician is increasing from one day to another day, it is too early to get the statistic; some of the youth are dropped out their studies to develop their career of music; the question was how many of them are developing their career to become the Professional? WHY IN THESE DAYS, RWANDAN YOUTH ARE WORKING HARDLY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MUSIC INDUSTRY?” it was not easy for me to get the accurate answers; some questions remains in my mind like -Are they working for money-music as a job (professional)? -Are they willing to become célèbre-stars? -Is it for the entertainment/Relaxing? -Is it because they love music? -Are they escaping the problems-Music as an escape domain? -Are they exploring their free time? -Are they using the music as the way of expressing their views? Those questions require analysing each question deeply, and getting the answers from the singers and listeners of music or DJ, in order to confirm the causes of being more active in music industry for the Rwandan youth. I am not interesting to make a deep research but to analyze and I hope this article will help the students and many researchers to develop and find out the exact causes. As my aim is to open the door for the researchers, briefly let us analyze all those above questions one to one based on the main causes as the motivation of forcing the Rwandan youth to be in the industry music.

Does delaying the first mowing date benefit biodiversity in meadowland?

Background Meadows are regularly mown in order to provide fodder or litter for livestock and to prevent vegetation succession. However, the time of year at which meadows should be first mown in order to maximize biological diversity remains controversial and may vary with respect to context and focal taxa. We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis on the effects of delaying the first mowing date upon plants and invertebrates in European meadowlands. Methods Following a CEE protocol, ISI Web of Science, Science Direct, JSTOR, Google and Google Scholar were searched. We recorded all studies that compared the species richness of plants, or the species richness or abundance of invertebrates, between grassland plots mown at a postponed date (treatment) vs plots mown earlier (control). In order to be included in the meta-analysis, compared plots had to be similar in all management respects, except the date of the first cut that was (mostly experimentally) manipulated. They were also to be located in the same meadow type. Meta-analyses applying Hedges’d statistic were performed. Results Plant species richness responded differently to the date to which mowing was postponed. Delaying mowing from spring to summer had a positive effect, while delaying either from spring to fall, or from early summer to later in the season had a negative effect. Invertebrates were expected to show a strong response to delayed mowing due to their dependence on sward structure, but only species richness showed a clearly significant positive response. Invertebrate abundance was positively influenced in only a few studies. Conclusions The present meta-analysis shows that in general delaying the first mowing date in European meadowlands has either positive or neutral effects on plant and invertebrate biodiversity (except for plant species richness when delaying from spring to fall or from early summer to later). Overall, there was also strong between-study heterogeneity, pointing to other major confounding factors, the elucidation of which requires further field experiments with both larger sample sizes and a distinction between taxon-specific and meadow-type-specific responses.

Content comparison of health status measures for obesity based on the international classification of functioning, disability and health

OBJECTIVE: To compare the content covered by twelve obesity-specific health status measures using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF). DESIGN: Obesity-specific health status measures were identified and then linked to the ICF separately by two trained health professionals according to standardized guidelines. The degree of agreement between health professionals was calculated by means of the kappa (kappa) statistic. Bootstrapped confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. The obesity-specific health-status measures were compared on the component and category level of the ICF. MEASUREMENTS: welve condition-specific health-status measures were identified and included in this study, namely the obesity-related problem scale, the obesity eating problems scale, the obesity-related coping and obesity-related distress questionnaire, the impact of weight on quality of life questionnaire (short version), the health-related quality of life questionnaire, the obesity adjustment survey (short form), the short specific quality of life scale, the obesity-related well-being questionnaire, the bariatric analysis and reporting outcome system, the bariatric quality of life index, the obesity and weight loss quality of life questionnaire and the weight-related symptom measure. RESULTS: In the 280 items of the eight measures, a total of 413 concepts were identified and linked to the 87 different ICF categories. The measures varied strongly in the number of concepts contained and the number of ICF categories used to map these concepts. Items on body functions varied form 12% in the obesity-related problem scale to 95% in the weight-related symptom measure. The estimated kappa coefficients ranged between 0.79 (CI: 0.72, 0.86) at the component ICFs level and 0.97 (CI: 0.93, 1.0) at the third ICF's level. CONCLUSION: The ICF proved highly useful for the content comparison of obesity-specific health-status measures. The results may provide clinicians and researchers with new insights when selecting health-status measures for clinical studies in obesity.

Concordance Probability and Discriminatory Power in Proportional Hazards Regression

The concordance probability is used to evaluate the discriminatory power and the predictive accuracy of nonlinear statistical models. We derive an analytic expression for the concordance probability in the Cox proportional hazards model. The proposed estimator is a function of the regression parameters and the covariate distribution only and does not use the observed event and censoring times. For this reason it is asymptotically unbiased, unlike Harrell's c-index based on informative pairs. The asymptotic distribution of the concordance probability estimate is derived using U-statistic theory and the methodology is applied to a predictive model in lung cancer.

Power Calculations for Preclinical Studies Using a K-Sample Rank Test and the Lehmann Alternative Hypothesis

Power calculations in a small sample comparative study, with a continuous outcome measure, are typically undertaken using the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic. When the sample size is small, this asymptotic result can be a poor approximation. An alternative approach, using a rank based test statistic, is an exact power calculation. When the number of groups is greater than two, the number of calculations required to perform an exact power calculation is prohibitive. To reduce the computational burden, a Monte Carlo resampling procedure is used to approximate the exact power function of a k-sample rank test statistic under the family of Lehmann alternative hypotheses. The motivating example for this approach is the design of animal studies, where the number of animals per group is typically small.

A Faster Circular Binary Segmentation Algorithm for the Analysis of Array CGH Data

Motivation: Array CGH technologies enable the simultaneous measurement of DNA copy number for thousands of sites on a genome. We developed the circular binary segmentation (CBS) algorithm to divide the genome into regions of equal copy number (Olshen {\it et~al}, 2004). The algorithm tests for change-points using a maximal $t$-statistic with a permutation reference distribution to obtain the corresponding $p$-value. The number of computations required for the maximal test statistic is $O(N^2),$ where $N$ is the number of markers. This makes the full permutation approach computationally prohibitive for the newer arrays that contain tens of thousands markers and highlights the need for a faster. algorithm. Results: We present a hybrid approach to obtain the $p$-value of the test statistic in linear time. We also introduce a rule for stopping early when there is strong evidence for the presence of a change. We show through simulations that the hybrid approach provides a substantial gain in speed with only a negligible loss in accuracy and that the stopping rule further increases speed. We also present the analysis of array CGH data from a breast cancer cell line to show the impact of the new approaches on the analysis of real data. Availability: An R (R Development Core Team, 2006) version of the CBS algorithm has been implemented in the ``DNAcopy'' package of the Bioconductor project (Gentleman {\it et~al}, 2004). The proposed hybrid method for the $p$-value is available in version 1.2.1 or higher and the stopping rule for declaring a change early is available in version 1.5.1 or higher.

Error models for microarray intensities

We derive the additive-multiplicative error model for microarray intensities, and describe two applications. For the detection of differentially expressed genes, we obtain a statistic whose variance is approximately independent of the mean intensity. For the post hoc calibration (normalization) of data with respect to experimental factors, we describe a method for parameter estimation.