Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.

Increased renal responsiveness to vasopressin and enhanced V2 receptor signaling in RGS2-/- mice.

The antidiuretic effect of vasopressin is mediated by V2 receptors (V2R) that are located in kidney connecting tubules and collecting ducts. This study provides evidence that V2R signaling is negatively regulated by regulator of G protein signaling 2 (RGS2), a member of the family of RGS proteins. This study demonstrates that (1) RGS2 expression in the kidney is restricted to the vasopressin-sensitive part of the nephron (thick ascending limb, connecting tubule, and collecting duct); (2) expression of RGS2 is rapidly upregulated by vasopressin; (3) the vasopressin-dependent accumulation of cAMP, the principal messenger of V2R signaling, is significantly higher in collecting ducts that are microdissected from the RGS2(-/-) mice compared with their wild-type littermates; and (4) analysis of urine output of mice that were exposed to water restriction followed by acute water loading revealed that RGS2(-/-) mice exhibit an increased renal responsiveness to vasopressin. It is proposed that RGS2 is involved in negative feedback regulation of V2R signaling.

The application of agricultural land rating and crop models to CO2 and climate change issues in Northern regions : the Mackenzie Basin case study

Selostus: Viljelyvyöhykkeiden ja kasvumallien soveltaminen ilmastonmuutoksen tutkimisessa: Mackenzien jokialue, Kanada

Projecting the self to past and future in mental time

Introduction: Human experience takes place in the line of mental-time (MT) created through imagination of oneself in different time-points in past or future (self-projection in time). Here we manipulated self-projection in MT not only with respect to one's life-events but also with respect to one's faces from different past and future time-points. Methods: We here compared MTT with respect to one's facial images from different time points in past and future (study 1: MT-faces) as well as with respect to different past and future life events (study 2: MT-events). Participants were asked to make judgments about past and future face images and past and future events from three different time-points: the present (Now), eight years earlier (Past) or eight years later (Future). In addition, as a control task participants were asked to make recognition judgments with respect to faces and memory-related judgments with respect to events without changing their habitual self-location in time. Behavioral measures and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) activity after subtraction of recognition and memory related activities show both absolute MT and relative MT effects for faces and events, signifying a fundamental brain mechanism of MT, disentangled from episodic memory functions. Results: Behavioural and event-related fMRI activity showed three independent effects characterized by (1) similarity between past recollection and future imagination, (2) facilitation of judgments related to the future as compared to the past, and (3) facilitation of judgments related to time-points distant from the present. These effects were found with respect to faces and events suggesting that the brain mechanisms of MT are independent of whether actual life episodes have to be re-/pre-experienced and recruited a common cerebral network including the medial-temporal, precuneus, inferior-frontal, temporo-parietal, and insular cortices. Conclusions: These behavioural and neural data suggest that self-projection in time is a crucial aspect of MT, relying on neural structures encoding memory, mental imagery, and self. Furthermore our results emphasize the idea that mental temporal processing is more strongly directed to future prediction than to past recollection.

Loss of ammonia from nitrogen fertilizers applied to maize and soybean straw

In Brazilian agriculture, urea is the most commonly used nitrogen (N) source, in spite of having the disadvantage of losing considerable amounts of N by ammonia-N volatilization. The objectives of this study were to evaluate: N lossby ammonia volatilization from: [urea coated with copper sulfate and boric acid], [urea coated with zeolite], [urea+ammonium sulfate], [urea coated with copper sulfate and boric acid+ammonium sulfate], [common urea] and [ammonium nitrate]; and the effect of these N source son the maize yield in terms of amount and quality. The treatments were applied to the surface of a soil under no-tillage maize, in two growing seasons. The first season (2009/2010) was after a maize crop (maize straw left on the soil surface) and the second cycle (2012/2011) after a soybean crop. Due to the weather conditions during the experiments, the volatilization of ammonia-N was highest in the first four days after application of the N sources. Of all urea sources, under volatilization-favorable conditions, the loss of ammonia from urea coated with copper sulfate and boric acid was lowest, while under high rainfall, the losses from the different urea sources was similar, i.e., an adequate rainfall was favorablet o reduce volatilization. The ammonia volatilization losses were greatest in the first four days after application. Maize grain yield differed due to N application and in the treatments, but this was only observed with cultivation of maize crop residues in 2009/2010. The combination of ammonium+urea coated with copper sulfate and boric acid optimized grain yield compared to the other urea treatments. The crude protein concentration in maize was not influenced by the technologies of urea coating.

Origin-related, environmental, sex, and age determinants of immunocompetence, susceptibility to ectoparasites, and disease symptoms in the barn owl

Knowledge of the role of origin-related, environmental, sex, and age factors on host defence mechanisms is important to understand variation in parasite intensity. Because alternative components of parasite defence may be differently sensitive to various factors, they may not necessarily covary. Many components should therefore be considered to tackle the evolution of host-parasite interactions. In a population of barn owls (Tyto alba), we investigated the role of origin-related, environmental (i.e. year, season, nest of rearing, and body condition), sex, and age factors on 12 traits linked to immune responses [humoral immune responses towards sheep red blood cells (SRBC), human serum albumin (HSA) and toxoid toxin TT, T-cell mediated immune response towards the mitogen phytohemagglutinin (PHA)], susceptibility to ectoparasites (number and fecundity of Carnus haemapterus, number of Ixodes ricinus), and disease symptoms (size of the bursa of Fabricius and spleen, proportion of proteins that are immunoglobulins, haematocrit and blood concentration in leucocytes). Cross-fostering experiments allowed us to detect a heritable component of variation in only four out of nine immune and parasitic parameters (i.e. SRBC- and HSA-responses, haematocrit, and number of C. haemapterus). However, because nestlings were not always cross-fostered just after hatching, the finding that 44% of the immune and parasitic parameters were heritable is probably an overestimation. These experiments also showed that five out of these nine parameters were sensitive to the nest environment (i.e. SRBC- and PHA-responses, number of C. haemapterus, haematocrit and blood concentration in leucocytes). Female nestlings were more infested by the blood-sucking fly C. haemapterus than their male nestmates, and their blood was less concentrated in leucocytes. The effect of year, season, age (i.e. reflecting the degree of maturation of the immune system), brood size, position in the within-brood age hierarchy, and body mass strongly differed between the 12 parameters. Different components of host defence mechanisms are therefore not equally heritable and sensitive to environmental, sex, and age factors, potentially explaining why most of these components did not covary.

Plant adaptation to temperature and photoperiod

Selostus: Kasvien sopeutuminen lämpötilaan ja päivän pituuteen

Cardiovascular risk factors attributable to obesity and overweight in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Obesity increases the risk for cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs), including hypertension, dyslipidaemia and type 2 diabetes. In this study, we assessed the burden of overweight and obesity on CVRFs in Switzerland, using Swiss-specific population attributable fractions (PAFs). METHODS AND RESULTS: The number of cases of CVRFs that could have been prevented if the increase in overweight and obesity in Switzerland had been contained was estimated using gender-specific, age- and smoking-adjusted PAFs for overweight and obesity. PAFs were estimated from the Swiss Health Survey 2007 (self-reported) and the CoLaus study (measured) data. PAFs from self-reported were lower than from measured data. Using measured data, overweight and obesity contributed to 38% of hypertension cases in men (32% in women). In men, overweight had a larger impact than obesity (22.2% and 15.6%, respectively), while the opposite was observed for women (13.6% and 18.1%, respectively). In men, 37% of dyslipidaemia (30% in women) could be attributed to overweight and obesity; overweight had a higher contribution than obesity in both sexes. In men, 57% of type 2 diabetes (62% in women) was attributable to overweight and obesity; obesity had a larger impact than overweight in both sexes. Overall, approximately 27,000 cases of type 2 diabetes, 63,000 cases of high blood pressure and 37,000 cases of dyslipidaemia could have been avoided if overweight and obesity levels were maintained at 1992 levels. CONCLUSION: A large proportion of CVRFs is attributable to overweight and/or obesity and could have been prevented by containing the overweight/obesity epidemic.

Worldwide trends in gastric cancer mortality (1980-2011), with predictions to 2015, and incidence by subtype.

Gastric cancer incidence and mortality decreased substantially over the last decades in most countries worldwide, with differences in the trends and distribution of the main topographies across regions. To monitor recent mortality trends (1980-2011) and to compute short-term predictions (2015) of gastric cancer mortality in selected countries worldwide, we analysed mortality data provided by the World Health Organization. We also analysed incidence of cardia and non-cardia cancers using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (2003-2007). The joinpoint regression over the most recent calendar periods gave estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) around -3% for the European Union (EU) and major European countries, as well as in Japan and Korea, and around -2% in North America and major Latin American countries. In the United States of America (USA), EU and other major countries worldwide, the EAPC, however, were lower than in previous years. The predictions for 2015 show that a levelling off of rates is expected in the USA and a few other countries. The relative contribution of cardia and non-cardia gastric cancers to the overall number of cases varies widely, with a generally higher proportion of cardia cancers in countries with lower gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates (e.g. the USA, Canada and Denmark). Despite the favourable mortality trends worldwide, in some countries the declines are becoming less marked. There still is the need to control Helicobacter pylori infection and other risk factors, as well as to improve diagnosis and management, to further reduce the burden of gastric cancer.

Contrasts in Areas of Rubber Tree Clones in Regard to Soil and Biomass Carbon Stocks

ABSTRACT Rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis) crop may accumulate significant amounts of carbon either in biomass or in the soil. However, a comprehensive understanding of the potential of the C stock among different rubber tree clones is still distant, since clones are typically developed to exhibit other traits, such as better yield and disease tolerance. Thus, the aim of this study was to address differences among different areas planted to rubber clones. We hypothesized that different rubber tree clones, developed to adapt to different environmental and biological constrains, diverge in terms of soil and plant biomass C stocks. Clones were compared in respect to soil C stocks at four soil depths and the total depth (0.00-0.05, 0.05-0.10, 0.10-0.20, 0.20-0.40, and 0.00-0.40 m), and in the different compartments of the tree biomass. Five different plantings of rubber clones (FX3864, FDR 5788, PMB 1, MDX 624, and CDC 312) of seven years of age were compared, which were established in a randomized block design in the experimental field in Rio de Janeiro State. No difference was observed among plantings of rubber tree clones in regard to soil C stocks, even considering the total stock from 0.00-0.40 m depth. However, the rubber tree clones were different from each other in terms of total plant C stocks, and this contrast was predominately due to only one component of the total C stock, tree biomass. For biomass C stock, the MDX 624 rubber tree clone was superior to other clones, and the stem was the biomass component which most accounted for total C biomass. The contrast among rubber clones in terms of C stock is mainly due to the biomass C stock; the aboveground (tree biomass) and the belowground (soil) compartments contributed differently to the total C stock, 36.2 and 63.8 %, respectively. Rubber trees did not differ in relation to C stocks in the soil, but the right choice of a rubber clone is a reliable approach for sequestering C from the air in the biomass of trees.

Independent contribution of parental migrant status and educational level to adiposity and eating habits in preschool children.

Background/Objective:Little is known about the precise role of parental migrant status (MS) and educational level (EL) on adiposity and various eating habits in young children. Therefore, we assessed their independent contribution in preschoolers.Subjects/Methods:Of 655 randomly selected preschoolers, 542 (5.1±0.6 years; 71% of parental MS and 37% of low parental EL) were analysed. Body composition was measured by bioelectrical impedance. Eating habits were assessed using a semiqualitative food frequency questionnaire and analysed according to five messages developed by the Swiss Society for Nutrition, based on factors implicated in childhood obesity: (1) 'Drinking water and decreasing sweetened drinks', (2) 'Eating fruit and vegetables', (3) 'Decreasing breakfast skipping', (4) 'Reducing fatty and sweet foods' and (5) 'Reducing the intake of meals and snacks in front of television'.Results:Children of migrant and low EL parents had higher body fat, ate more meals and snacks while watching television and had more fruit and fatty foods compared with their respective counterparts (all P0.04). Children of low EL parents also consumed less water and vegetables compared with their counterparts (all P0.04). In most instances, we found an independent contribution of parental MS and EL to adiposity and eating habits. A more pronounced effect was found if both parents were migrants or of low EL. Differences in adiposity and eating habits were relatively similar to the joint parental data when assessed individually for maternal and paternal MS and EL.Conclusions:Parental MS and EL are independently related to adiposity and various eating habits in preschoolers.European Journal of Clinical Nutrition advance online publication, 3 November 2010; doi:10.1038/ejcn.2010.248.

Phosphorus Forms in Ultisol Submitted to Burning and Trituration of Vegetation in Eastern Amazon

ABSTRACT The use of fire to prepare agricultural areas is a technique still used by small farmers in eastern Amazon. This type of management changes the dynamics of soil nutrients, especially phosphorus, which constitutes the most limiting nutrient for crop production in tropical soils. This study was carried out to evaluate changes in phosphorus forms in an Argissolo Amarelo Distrófico (Ultisol) submitted to burning and trituration of secondary forest in eastern Amazon. The evaluated systems were: slash-and-burn of vegetation; slash-and-mulch of vegetation; and secondary vegetation. The labile, moderately labile, moderately recalcitrant, available and total phosphorus fractions were assessed at the soil depths of 0.00-0.05, 0.05-0.10 and 0.10-0.20 m. The results showed a predominance of soluble P in acid (moderately labile P) over other forms in all management systems. The management systems influence the content and distribution of the forms of P, where the slash-and-mulch system presented the prevalence of the labile fraction, and the slash-and-burn system contained less labile forms. The slash-and-mulch system favored the accumulation of labile P and total organic P.

Accès aux soins et maintien dans la communauté des personnes difficiles à engager dans un traitement psychiatrique [Access to care and maintenance in the community of persons who are difficult to engage in psychiatric treatment]

Psychotic patients to not access easily to psychiatric care. First, psychotic disorders are difficult to identify among a great number of non psychotic depressive and anxious disorders. Second, inpatient care has shortened and now focus on acute care rather than long stay. For some psychotic patients, desinstitutionalization means exclusion and marginalization. Intensive case management can answer these needs in collaboration with relatives and professionals of patient's social network. Results and care's steps of intensive case management as practiced in Lausanne are described and illustrated with cases vignettes.