Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory

We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for thepostwar United States economy, before and after Volcker's appointmentas Fed Chairman in 1979. Our results point to substantial differencesin the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest ratepolicy in the Volcker-Greenspan period appears to have been much moresensitive to changes in expected inflation than in the pre-Volckerperiod. We then compare some of the implications of the estimated rulesfor the equilibrium properties of inflation and output, using a simplemacroeconomic model, and show that the Volcker-Greenspan rule is stabilizing.

Variable Kernel estimates: On the impossibility of tuning the parameters

For the standard kernel density estimate, it is known that one can tune the bandwidth such that the expected L1 error is within a constant factor of the optimal L1 error (obtained when one is allowed to choose the bandwidth with knowledge of the density). In this paper, we pose the same problem for variable bandwidth kernel estimates where the bandwidths are allowed to depend upon the location. We show in particular that for positive kernels on the real line, for any data-based bandwidth, there exists a densityfor which the ratio of expected L1 error over optimal L1 error tends to infinity. Thus, the problem of tuning the variable bandwidth in an optimal manner is ``too hard''. Moreover, from the class of counterexamples exhibited in the paper, it appears thatplacing conditions on the densities (monotonicity, convexity, smoothness) does not help.

Understanding Insurance Company Financial Stability Ratings, January 2007

Choosing a financially strong insurance company is important when buying health insurance. You want the company to still be in business when you have claims, which can be 20 to 30 years from now. Insurance companies selling insurance in Iowa have met the minimum legal standards to be licensed by the State of Iowa Insurance Division. This licensure doesn’t mean the company has a high financial stability rating. Several independent rating agencies evaluate the financial stability of insurance companies. The rating for an individual insurance company is an opinion as to its financial strength and ability to pay claims in the future. When evaluating a company, a rating agency may consider a company's balance sheet strength, operating performance and business management and strategies.

Sitobion graminis Takahashi, 1950 (Hemiptera, Aphididae): first record in Brazil, biological and morphometric parameters

The species Sitobion graminis Takahashi, 1950 (Hemiptera, Aphididae) was first detected in Brazil in 1998, in Curitiba, Paraná state, associated with the grass species Erianthus sp., Calamagrotis sp. and Paspalum urvilei. Both the field-collected and laboratory-reared specimens presented a noticeable intrapopulational variation in body and appendix length and in dorso-abdominal sclerotization. This species has been recorded in Malaysia, New Guinea, India, Philippines and Africa, where it colonizes several species of Poaceae. S. graminis differs from other Sitobion species from Brazil associated with grasses, as it presents black cauda and siphunculi and exhibits a constriction in the base of the last rostral segment. Biological data were obtained in the laboratory by rearing newborn nymphs on the inflorescence of the host plants. They passed through four nymphal instars. The mean duration of the nymphal stage was of 11.4 days, with a mortality ratio of 36.5%. The mean pre-larviposition period was of 1.8 days; mean longevity of the females was 25.2 days; and mean fecundity was 18.7 nymphs/female, ranging from 2 to 41 nymphs/female.

Price increase and stability with new entries in Cournot markets

It is widely accepted in the literature about the classicalCournot oligopoly model that the loss of quasi competitiveness is linked,in the long run as new firms enter the market, to instability of the equilibrium. In this paper, though, we present a model in which a stableunique symmetric equilibrium is reached for any number of oligopolistsas industry price increases with each new entry. Consequently, the suspicion that non quasi competitiveness implies, in the long run, instabilityis proved false.

On the impact of fundamentals, liquidity and coordination on market stability

We develop a coordination game to model interactions betweenfundamentals and liquidity during unstable periods in financial markets.We then propose a flexible econometric framework for estimationof the model and analysis of its quantitative implications. The specificempirical application is carry trades in the yen dollar market, includingthe turmoil of 1998. We find a generally very deep market, withlow information disparities amongst agents. We observe occasionallyepisodes of market fragility, or turmoil with up by the escalator, downby the elevator patterns in prices. The key role of strategic behaviorin the econometric model is also confirmed.

Designing institutions for financial stability: Regulation and supervision by objective for the Euro area

In this paper, we discuss pros and cons ofdifferent models for financial market regulationand supervision and we present a proposal forthe re-organisation of regulatory and supervisoryagencies in the Euro Area. Our arguments areconsistent with both new theories and effectivebehaviour of financial intermediaries inindustrialized countries. Our proposed architecturefor financial market regulation is based on theassignment of different objectives or "finalities"to different authorities, both at the domesticand the European level. According to thisperspective, the three objectives of supervision- microeconomic stability, investor protectionand proper behaviour, efficiency and competition- should be assigned to three distinct Europeanauthorities, each one at the centre of a Europeansystem of financial regulators and supervisorsspecialized in overseeing the entire financialmarket with respect to a single regulatoryobjective and regardless of the subjective natureof the intermediaries. Each system should bestructured and organized similarly to the EuropeanSystem of Central Banks and work in connectionwith the central bank which would remain theinstitution responsible for price and macroeconomicstability. We suggest a plausible path to buildour 4-peak regulatory architecture in the Euro area.

The serine-rich N-terminal region of Arabidopsis phytochrome A is required for protein stability.

Deletion or substitution of the serine-rich N-terminal stretch of grass phytochrome A (phyA) has repeatedly been shown to yield a hyperactive photoreceptor when expressed under the control of a constitutive promoter in transgenic tobacco or Arabidopsis seedlings retaining their native phyA. These observations have lead to the proposal that the serine-rich region is involved in negative regulation of phyA signaling. To re-evaluate this conclusion in a more physiological context we produced transgenic Arabidopsis seedlings of the phyA-null background expressing Arabidopsis PHYA deleted in the sequence corresponding to amino acids 6-12, under the control of the native PHYA promoter. Compared to the transgenic seedlings expressing wild-type phyA, the seedlings bearing the mutated phyA showed normal responses to pulses of far-red (FR) light and impaired responses to continuous FR light. In yeast two-hybrid experiments, deleted phyA interacted normally with FHY1 and FHL, which are required for phyA accumulation in the nucleus. Immunoblot analysis showed reduced stability of deleted phyA under continuous red or FR light. The reduced physiological activity can therefore be accounted for by the enhanced destruction of the mutated phyA. These findings do not support the involvement of the serine-rich region in negative regulation but they are consistent with a recent report suggesting that phyA turnover is regulated by phosphorylation.

Value of sTREM-1, procalcitonin and CRP as laboratory parameters for postmortem diagnosis of sepsis.

OBJECTIVES: Triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 (TREM-1) was reported to be up-regulated in various inflammatory diseases as well as in bacterial sepsis. Increased cell-surface TREM-1 expression was also shown to result in marked plasma elevation of the soluble form of this molecule (sTREM-1) in patients with bacterial infections. In this study, we investigated sTREM-1, procalcitonin and C-reactive protein in postmortem serum in a series of sepsis-related fatalities and control individuals who underwent medico-legal investigations. sTREM-1 was also measured in pericardial fluid and urine. METHODS: Two study groups were prospectively formed, a sepsis-related fatalities group and a control group. The sepsis-related fatalities group consisted of sixteen forensic autopsy cases. Eight of these had a documented clinical diagnosis of sepsis in vivo. The control group consisted of sixteen forensic autopsy cases with various causes of death. RESULTS: Postmortem serum sTREM-1 concentrations were higher in the sepsis group with a mean value of 173.6 pg/ml in septic cases and 79.2 pg/ml in control individuals. The cutoff value of 90 pg/ml provided the best sensitivity and specificity. Pericardial fluid sTREM-1 values were higher in the septic group, with a mean value of 296.7 pg/ml in septic cases and 100.9 pg/ml in control individuals. The cutoff value of 135 pg/ml provided the best sensitivity and specificity. Mean urine sTREM-1 concentration was 102.9 pg/ml in septic cases and 89.3 pg/ml in control individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Postmortem serum sTREM-1, individually considered, did not provide better sensitivity and specificity than procalcitonin in detecting sepsis. However, simultaneous assessment of procalcitonin and sTREM-1 in postmortem serum can be of help in clarifying contradictory postmortem findings. sTREM-1 determination in pericardial fluid can be an alternative to postmortem serum in those situations in which biochemical analyses are required and blood collected during autopsy proves insufficient.

Fatty acids regulate Thy-1 antigen mRNA stability in T lymphocyte precursors.

In this study, we report the effect of fatty acids on the Thy-1 antigen mRNA decay. Low serum and synthetic medium culture conditions were used to demonstrate that fatty acids, which are important metabolites involved as second messengers in signal transduction, also influence the steady-state mRNA level. Detailed analysis demonstrated that polyunsaturated lipids attached to bovine serum albumin, such as linoleic, linolenic, and arachidonic acids, modulate gene expression specifically in the S1A T lymphoma cell line by inducing a 3-5-fold increase in the steady-state Thy-1 mRNA level, concomitant with a twofold increase in cell surface expression. A similar modulation was observed in the immature CD4-CD8- T cell precursors but not in mature thymocytes. Nuclear run-on and transfection experiments indicated that the observed Thy-1 mRNA level is post-transcriptionally regulated and that the presence of the coding region is sufficient for this adaptive response. A mechanism without a requirement for protein kinase C activation, but involving Ca2+ entry, could account for this difference in Thy-1 mRNA stability.

Viability and Management of an Endangered Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) Metapopulation in the Jura Mountains, Western Switzerland

The populations of Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus), the largest European grouse, have seriously declined during the last century over most of their distribution in western and central Europe. In the Jura mountains, the relict population is now isolated and critically endangered (about 500 breeding adults). We developed a simulation software (TetrasPool) that accounts for age and spatial structure as well as stochastic processes, to perform a viability analysis and explore management scenarios for this population, capitalizing on a 24 years-long series of field data. Simulations predict a marked decline and a significant extinction risk over the next century, largely due to environmental and demographic stochasticity (average values of life-history parameters would otherwise allow stability). Variances among scenarios mainly stem from uncertainties about the shape and intensity of density dependence. Uncertainty analyses suggest to focus conservation efforts on enhancing, not only adult survival (as often advocated for long-lived species), but also recruitment. The juvenile stage matters when local populations undergo extinctions, because it ensures connectivity and recolonization. Besides limiting human perturbations, a silvicultural strategy aimed at opening forest structure should improve the quality and surface of available patches, independent of their size and localization. Such measures are to be taken urgently, if the population is to be saved.

Femoroacetabular impingement: normal values of the quantitative morphometric parameters in asymptomatic hips.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the means and the reference intervals of the quantitative morphometric parameters of femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) in normal hips with high-resolution computed tomography (CT). METHODS: We prospectively included 94 adult individuals who underwent CT for thoracic, abdominal or urologic pathologies. Patients with a clinical history of hip pathology and/or with osteoarthritis on CT were excluded. We calculated means and 95 % reference intervals for imaging signs of cam-type (alpha angle at 90° and 45° and femoral head-neck offset) and pincer-type impingement (acetabular version angle, lateral centre-edge angle and acetabular index). RESULTS: The 95 % reference interval limits were all far beyond the abnormal thresholds found in the literature for cam-type and to a lesser extent for pincer-type FAI. The upper limits of the reference intervals for the alpha angles (at 90°/45°) were 68°/83° (men) and 69°/84° (women), compared to thresholds from the literature (50°, 55° or 60°). Reference intervals were similar between genders for cam-type parameters, and slightly differed for pincer-type. CONCLUSION: The 95 % reference intervals of morphometric measurements of FAI in asymptomatic hips were beyond the abnormal thresholds, which was especially true for cam-type FAI. Our results suggest the need for redefining the current morphometric parameters used in the diagnosis of FAI. KEY POINTS: ? 95 % reference intervals limits of FAI morphotype were beyond currently defined thresholds. ? Reference intervals of pincer-type morphotype measurements were close to current definitions. ? Reference intervals of cam-type morphotype measurements were far beyond the current definitions. ? Current morphometric definitions of cam-type morphotype should be used with care.

Engineered aprotinin for improved stability of fibrin biomaterials.

Fibrin has been long used clinically for hemostasis and sealing, yet extension of use in other applications has been limited due to its relatively rapid resorption in vivo, even with addition of aprotinin or other protease inhibitors. We report an engineered aprotinin variant that can be immobilized within fibrin and thus provide extended longevity. When recombinantly fused to a transglutaminase substrate domain from α(2)-plasmin inhibitor (α(2)PI(1-8)), the resulting variant, aprotinin-α(2)PI(1-8), was covalently crosslinked into fibrin matrices during normal thrombin/factor XIIIa-mediated polymerization. Challenge with physiological plasmin concentrations revealed that aprotinin-α(2)PI(1-8)-containing matrices retained 78% of their mass after 3 wk, whereas matrices containing wild type (WT) aprotinin degraded completely within 1 wk. Plasmin challenge of commercial sealants Omrixil and Tisseel, supplemented with aprotinin-α(2)PI(1-8) or WT aprotinin, showed extended longevity as well. When seeded with human dermal fibroblasts, aprotinin-α(2)PI(1-8)-supplemented matrices supported cell growth for at least 33% longer than those containing WT aprotinin. Subcutaneously implanted matrices containing aprotinin-α(2)PI(1-8) were detectable in mice for more than twice as long as those containing WT aprotinin. We conclude that our engineered recombinant aprotinin variant can confer extended longevity to fibrin matrices more effectively than WT aprotinin in vitro and in vivo.

Measuring the stability of histogram appearance when the anchor position is changed

Although the histogram is the most widely used density estimator, itis well--known that the appearance of a constructed histogram for a given binwidth can change markedly for different choices of anchor position. In thispaper we construct a stability index $G$ that assesses the potential changesin the appearance of histograms for a given data set and bin width as theanchor position changes. If a particular bin width choice leads to an unstableappearance, the arbitrary choice of any one anchor position is dangerous, anda different bin width should be considered. The index is based on the statisticalroughness of the histogram estimate. We show via Monte Carlo simulation thatdensities with more structure are more likely to lead to histograms withunstable appearance. In addition, ignoring the precision to which the datavalues are provided when choosing the bin width leads to instability. We provideseveral real data examples to illustrate the properties of $G$. Applicationsto other binned density estimators are also discussed.

On the performance of small-area estimators: Fixed vs. random area parameters

Most methods for small-area estimation are based on composite estimators derived from design- or model-based methods. A composite estimator is a linear combination of a direct and an indirect estimator with weights that usually depend on unknown parameters which need to be estimated. Although model-based small-area estimators are usually based on random-effects models, the assumption of fixed effects is at face value more appropriate.Model-based estimators are justified by the assumption of random (interchangeable) area effects; in practice, however, areas are not interchangeable. In the present paper we empirically assess the quality of several small-area estimators in the setting in which the area effects are treated as fixed. We consider two settings: one that draws samples from a theoretical population, and another that draws samples from an empirical population of a labor force register maintained by the National Institute of Social Security (NISS) of Catalonia. We distinguish two types of composite estimators: a) those that use weights that involve area specific estimates of bias and variance; and, b) those that use weights that involve a common variance and a common squared bias estimate for all the areas. We assess their precision and discuss alternatives to optimizing composite estimation in applications.