Plant distribution and climate data across western North America

Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations) as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations) - despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was significant region-to region- variation in responses (i.e. from as many as 73% to as few as32% of species shifting upward or downward). To understand the factors that might be controlling region-specific distributional shifts, we explored the relationship between the direction of change in distribution limits and the nature of recent climate change. We found that the direction of distribution limit shifts was explained by an interaction between the rate of change in local summer temperatures and seasonal precipitation. Specifically, species shifted upward at their upper elevational limit when snowfall declined at slower rates and minimum temperatures increased. By contrast, species shifted upwards at their lower elevation limit when maximum temperatures increased or both temperature and precipitation decreased. Our results suggest that future species' elevational distribution shifts will be complex, depending on the interaction between seasonal temperature and precipitation change.

Compaction curves and sediment characteristics of ODP Leg 165 and Leg 130 sites

Compaction curves for 11 samples from the mixed sediments and calcareous chalk with clay from the Caribbean Sites 999 and 1001 are discussed with reference to compaction curves for calcareous ooze and chalk of the Ontong Java Plateau (Leg 130). The burial history is discussed from preconsolidation data and present burial conditions and suggests a removal of ~400 m of sediment at the hiatus 166 meters below seafloor (mbsf) at Site 1001. This interpretation predicts a previous burial to >500 mbsf for depth intervals containing microstylolites, which corresponds to observations at Sites 999 and 807 (Ontong Java Plateau). Thus, data from three sites from two widely separate regions indicate that microstylolites in carbonates form at minimum burial depths deeper than 500 m. No direct link between formation of microstylolites and cementation was found, suggesting that dissolution and precipitation are not necessarily related. Porosity rebound during core retrieval could not be detected for soft sediments, whereas a porosity rebound of ~2% was deduced for deeper, cemented intervals. Comparing the compaction curves, two distinct rates of porosity loss are noted: (1) samples dominated by clay (>45% insoluble residue) compact at a higher rate than samples dominated by fine-grained carbonate and (2) fine-grained carbonate supported samples (with <45% insoluble residue) compact at the same rate irrespective of the content of nonsupporting microfossils or pore-filling clay.

Pore-water chemistry of ODP Leg 115 samples

Analyses of the Sr2+ concentrations of interstitial fluids obtained from sediments squeezed during Leg 115 were used to estimate the rates and total amount of recrystallization of biogenic carbonates. The total amount of recrystallization calculated using this method varies from less than 1 % in sediments at Site 706 to more than 40% at Site 709 in sediments of 47 Ma. Five of the sites drilled during Leg 115 (Sites 707 through 711) were drilled in a depth transect within a restricted geographic area so that theoretically they received similar amounts of sediment input. Of these, the maximum rate of recrystallization occurred in the upper 50 m of Site 710 (3812 m). The amount of recrystallization decreased with increasing water depth at Sites 708 (4096 m) and 711 (4428 m), presumably as a result of the fact that most of the reactive calcium carbonate was dissolved before burial. We also observed significant alkalinity deficits at many of these sites, a condition which most likely resulted from the precipitation of calcium carbonate either in the sedimentary column, or during retrieval of the core. Precipitation of CaCO3 as a result of pressure changes during core retrieval was confirmed by the comparison of Ca2+ and alkalinity from water samples obtained using the in-situ sampler and squeezed from the sediments. At Sites 707 and 716, the shallowest sites, no calcium or alkalinity deficits were present. In spite of our estimations of as much as 45% recrystallization at Site 709, all the carbonate sites exhibited what would be previously considered conservative Ca2+/Mg2+ profiles, which varied from -1 to -0.5. By virtue of the position of these sites relative to known basaltic basement or through the actual penetration of basalt (i.e., Sites 706, 707 and 712), these sites are all known to be underlain by basalt. Our results suggest, therefore, that more positive Ca2 + /Mg2+ gradients cannot necessarily be used as indicators of the nature of basement material.

(Table 1) Mean temperatures in january and july, and total annual snowfall at Great Bear Lake and Great Slave Lake, Canada

The sensitivity of brightness temperature (T(B)) at 6.9, 10.7, and 18.7 GHz from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) observations is investigated over five winter seasons (2002-2007) on Great Bear Lake and Great Slave Lake, Northwest Territories, Canada. The T(B) measurements are compared to ice thicknesses obtained with a previously validated thermodynamic lake ice model. Lake ice thickness is found to explain much of the increase of T(B) at 10.7 and 18.7 GHz. T(B) acquired at 18.7 GHz (V-pol) and 10.7 GHz (H-pol) shows the strongest relation with simulated lake ice thickness over the period of study (R**2 > 0.90). A comparison of the seasonal evolution of T(B) for a cold winter (2003-2004) and a warm winter (2005-2006) reveals that the relationship between T(B) and ice growth is stronger in the cold winter (2003-2004). Overall, this letter shows the high sensitivity of T(B) to ice growth and, thus, the potential of AMSR-E mid-frequency channels to estimate ice thickness on large northern lakes.

The CoastColour Round Robin datasets: a database to evaluate the performance of algorithms for the retrieval of water quality parameters in coastal waters

The CoastColour project Round Robin (CCRR) project (http://www.coastcolour.org) funded by the European Space Agency (ESA) was designed to bring together a variety of reference datasets and to use these to test algorithms and assess their accuracy for retrieving water quality parameters. This information was then developed to help end-users of remote sensing products to select the most accurate algorithms for their coastal region. To facilitate this, an inter-comparison of the performance of algorithms for the retrieval of in-water properties over coastal waters was carried out. The comparison used three types of datasets on which ocean colour algorithms were tested. The description and comparison of the three datasets are the focus of this paper, and include the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) Level 2 match-ups, in situ reflectance measurements and data generated by a radiative transfer model (HydroLight). The datasets mainly consisted of 6,484 marine reflectance associated with various geometrical (sensor viewing and solar angles) and sky conditions and water constituents: Total Suspended Matter (TSM) and Chlorophyll-a (CHL) concentrations, and the absorption of Coloured Dissolved Organic Matter (CDOM). Inherent optical properties were also provided in the simulated datasets (5,000 simulations) and from 3,054 match-up locations. The distributions of reflectance at selected MERIS bands and band ratios, CHL and TSM as a function of reflectance, from the three datasets are compared. Match-up and in situ sites where deviations occur are identified. The distribution of the three reflectance datasets are also compared to the simulated and in situ reflectances used previously by the International Ocean Colour Coordinating Group (IOCCG, 2006) for algorithm testing, showing a clear extension of the CCRR data which covers more turbid waters.

Land Surface Temperature continuous time series from SSM/I passive microwave radiometers, over northern latitudes (Latitudes > 45°N), during summer snow free period (2000-2011), with links to NetCDF files

Remote sensing instruments are key players to map land surface temperature (LST) at large temporal and spatial scales. In this paper, we present how we combine passive microwave and thermal infrared data to estimate LST during summer snow-free periods over northern high latitudes. The methodology is based on the SSM/I-SSMIS 37 GHz measurements at both vertical and horizontal polarizations on a 25 km × 25 km grid size. LST is retrieved from brightness temperatures introducing an empirical linear relationship between emissivities at both polarizations as described in Royer and Poirier (2010). This relationship is calibrated at pixel scale, using cloud-free independent LST data from MODIS instruments. The SSM/I-SSMIS and MODIS data are synchronized by fitting a diurnal cycle model built on skin temperature reanalysis provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The resulting temperature dataset is provided at 25 km scale and at an hourly time step during the ten-year analysis period (2000-2011). This new product was locally evaluated at five experimental sites of the EU-PAGE21 project against air temperature measurements and meteorological model reanalysis, and compared to the MODIS LST product at both local and circumpolar scale. The results giving a mean RMSE of the order of 2.2 K demonstrate the usefulness of the microwave product, which is unaffected by clouds as opposed to thermal infrared products and offers a better resolution compared to model reanalysis.

Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species

Calendar date of the beginning of the growing season at high altitude in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is variable but has not changed significantly over the past 25 years. This result differs from growing evidence from low altitudes that climate change is resulting in a longer growing season, earlier migrations, and earlier reproduction in a variety of taxa. At our study site, the beginning of the growing season is controlled by melting of the previous winter's snowpack. Despite a trend for warmer spring temperatures the average date of snowmelt has not changed, perhaps because of the trend for increased winter precipitation. This disjunction between phenology at low and high altitudes may create problems for species, such as many birds, that migrate over altitudinal gradients. We present data indicating that this already may be true for American robins, which are arriving 14 days earlier than they did in 1981; the interval between arrival date and the first date of bare ground has grown by 18 days. We also report evidence for an effect of climate change on hibernation behavior; yellow-bellied marmots are emerging 38 days earlier than 23 years ago, apparently in response to warmer spring air temperatures. Migrants and hibernators may experience problems as a consequence of these changes in phenology, which may be exacerbated if climate models are correct in their predictions of increased winter snowfall in our study area. The trends we report for earlier formation of permanent snowpack and for a longer period of snow cover also have implications for hibernating species.

An observational and theoretical study of the structure and propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

A pragmatic Bayesian approach to wind field retrieval

The ERS-1 Satellite was launched in July 1991 by the European Space Agency into a polar orbit at about 800 km, carrying a C-band scatterometer. A scatterometer measures the amount of backscatter microwave radiation reflected by small ripples on the ocean surface induced by sea-surface winds, and so provides instantaneous snap-shots of wind flow over large areas of the ocean surface, known as wind fields. Inherent in the physics of the observation process is an ambiguity in wind direction; the scatterometer cannot distinguish if the wind is blowing toward or away from the sensor device. This ambiguity implies that there is a one-to-many mapping between scatterometer data and wind direction. Current operational methods for wind field retrieval are based on the retrieval of wind vectors from satellite scatterometer data, followed by a disambiguation and filtering process that is reliant on numerical weather prediction models. The wind vectors are retrieved by the local inversion of a forward model, mapping scatterometer observations to wind vectors, and minimising a cost function in scatterometer measurement space. This thesis applies a pragmatic Bayesian solution to the problem. The likelihood is a combination of conditional probability distributions for the local wind vectors given the scatterometer data. The prior distribution is a vector Gaussian process that provides the geophysical consistency for the wind field. The wind vectors are retrieved directly from the scatterometer data by using mixture density networks, a principled method to model multi-modal conditional probability density functions. The complexity of the mapping and the structure of the conditional probability density function are investigated. A hybrid mixture density network, that incorporates the knowledge that the conditional probability distribution of the observation process is predominantly bi-modal, is developed. The optimal model, which generalises across a swathe of scatterometer readings, is better on key performance measures than the current operational model. Wind field retrieval is approached from three perspectives. The first is a non-autonomous method that confirms the validity of the model by retrieving the correct wind field 99% of the time from a test set of 575 wind fields. The second technique takes the maximum a posteriori probability wind field retrieved from the posterior distribution as the prediction. For the third technique, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques were employed to estimate the mass associated with significant modes of the posterior distribution, and make predictions based on the mode with the greatest mass associated with it. General methods for sampling from multi-modal distributions were benchmarked against a specific MCMC transition kernel designed for this problem. It was shown that the general methods were unsuitable for this application due to computational expense. On a test set of 100 wind fields the MAP estimate correctly retrieved 72 wind fields, whilst the sampling method correctly retrieved 73 wind fields.

Effects of Simulated Drought on the Carbon Balance of Everglades Short-Hydroperiod Marsh

Hydrology drives the carbon balance of wetlands by controlling the uptake and release of CO2 and CH4. Longer dry periods in between heavier precipitation events predicted for the Everglades region, may alter the stability of large carbon pools in this wetland's ecosystems. To determine the effects of drought on CO2 fluxes and CH4 emissions, we simulated changes in hydroperiod with three scenarios that differed in the onset rate of drought (gradual, intermediate, and rapid transition into drought) on 18 freshwater wetland monoliths collected from an Everglades short-hydroperiod marsh. Simulated drought, regardless of the onset rate, resulted in higher net CO2 losses net ecosystem exchange (NEE) over the 22-week manipulation. Drought caused extensive vegetation dieback, increased ecosystem respiration (Reco), and reduced carbon uptake gross ecosystem exchange (GEE). Photosynthetic potential measured by reflective indices (photochemical reflectance index, water index, normalized phaeophytinization index, and the normalized difference vegetation index) indicated that water stress limited GEE and inhibited Reco. As a result of drought-induced dieback, NEE did not offset methane production during periods of inundation. The average ratio of net CH4 to NEE over the study period was 0.06, surpassing the 100-year greenhouse warming compensation point for CH4 (0.04). Drought-induced diebacks of sawgrass (C3) led to the establishment of the invasive species torpedograss (C4) when water was resupplied. These changes in the structure and function indicate that freshwater marsh ecosystems can become a net source of CO2 and CH4 to the atmosphere, even following an extended drought. Future changes in precipitation patterns and drought occurrence/duration can change the carbon storage capacity of freshwater marshes from sinks to sources of carbon to the atmosphere. Therefore, climate change will impact the carbon storage capacity of freshwater marshes by influencing water availability and the potential for positive feedbacks on radiative forcing.

Present-day Pattern Variations in the Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino

El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a cycle that is initiated in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is recognized on interannual timescales by oscillating patterns in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) and atmospheric circulations. Using correlation and regression analysis of datasets that include SST’s and other interdependent variables including precipitation, surface winds, sea level pressure, this research seeks to quantify recent changes in ENSO behavior. Specifically, the amplitude, frequency of occurrence, and spatial characteristics (i.e. events with maximum amplitude in the Central Pacific versus the Eastern Pacific) are investigated. The research is based on the question; “Are the statistics of ENSO changing due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations?” Our hypothesis is that the present-day changes in amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO are determined by the natural variability of the ocean-atmosphere climate system, not the observed changes in the radiative forcing due to change in the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Statistical analysis, including correlation and regression analysis, is performed on observational ocean and atmospheric datasets available from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and coupled model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (phase 5, CMIP5). Datasets are analyzed with a particular focus on ENSO over the last thirty years. Understanding the observed changes in the ENSO phenomenon over recent decades has a worldwide significance. ENSO is the largest climate signal on timescales of 2 - 7 years and affects billions of people via atmospheric teleconnections that originate in the tropical Pacific. These teleconnections explain why changes in ENSO can lead to climate variations in areas including North and South America, Asia, and Australia. For the United States, El Niño events are linked to decreased number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, reduction in precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, and increased precipitation throughout the southern United Stated during winter months. Understanding variability in the amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO is crucial for decision makers who must adapt where regional ecology and agriculture are affected by ENSO.

Present-day Pattern Variations in the Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino

El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a cycle that is initiated in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is recognized on interannual timescales by oscillating patterns in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) and atmospheric circulations. Using correlation and regression analysis of datasets that include SST’s and other interdependent variables including precipitation, surface winds, sea level pressure, this research seeks to quantify recent changes in ENSO behavior. Specifically, the amplitude, frequency of occurrence, and spatial characteristics (i.e. events with maximum amplitude in the Central Pacific versus the Eastern Pacific) are investigated. The research is based on the question; “Are the statistics of ENSO changing due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations?” Our hypothesis is that the present-day changes in amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO are determined by the natural variability of the ocean-atmosphere climate system, not the observed changes in the radiative forcing due to change in the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Statistical analysis, including correlation and regression analysis, is performed on observational ocean and atmospheric datasets available from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and coupled model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (phase 5, CMIP5). Datasets are analyzed with a particular focus on ENSO over the last thirty years. Understanding the observed changes in the ENSO phenomenon over recent decades has a worldwide significance. ENSO is the largest climate signal on timescales of 2 - 7 years and affects billions of people via atmospheric teleconnections that originate in the tropical Pacific. These teleconnections explain why changes in ENSO can lead to climate variations in areas including North and South America, Asia, and Australia. For the United States, El Niño events are linked to decreased number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, reduction in precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, and increased precipitation throughout the southern United Stated during winter months. Understanding variability in the amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO is crucial for decision makers who must adapt where regional ecology and agriculture are affected by ENSO.

Síntese e caracterização de pigmentos nanométricos encapsulados pelos métodos dos precursores poliméricos, hidrotermal de microondas e co-precipitação associado à química sol-gel convencional

The demand for materials with high consistency obtained at relatively low temperatures has been leveraging the search for chemical processes substituents of the conventional ceramic method. This paper aims to obtain nanosized pigments encapsulated (core-shell) the basis of TiO2 doped with transition metals (Fe, Co, Ni, Al) through three (3) methods of synthesis: polymeric precursors (Pechini); hydrothermal microwave, and co-precipitation associated with the sol-gel chemistry. The study was motivated by the simplicity, speed and low power consumption characteristic of these methods. Systems costs are affordable because they allow achieving good control of microstructure, combined with high purity, controlled stoichiometric phases and allowing to obtain particles of nanometer size. The physical, chemical, morphological, structural and optical properties of the materials obtained were analyzed using different techniques for materials characterization. The powder pigments were tested in discoloration and degradation using a photoreactor through the solution of Remazol yellow dye gold (NNI), such as filtration, resulting in a separation of solution and the filter pigments available for further UV-Vis measurements . Different calcination temperatures taken after obtaining the post, the different methods were: 400 º C and 1000 º C. Using a fixed concentration of 10% (Fe, Al, Ni, Co) mass relative to the mass of titanium technologically and economically enabling the study. By transmission electron microscopy (TEM) technique was possible to analyze and confirm the structural formation nanosized particles of encapsulated pigment, TiO2 having the diameter of 20 nm to 100 nm, and thickness of coated layer of Fe, Ni and Co between 2 nm and 10 nm. The method of synthesis more efficient has been studied in the work co-precipitation associated with sol-gel chemistry, in which the best results were achieved without the need for the obtainment of powders the calcination process

Síntese de carreadores de oxigênio à base de Ni e Co para estudo do processo de Chemical Looping usando CH4 como combustível

Increasing energy demand is being met largely by fossil fuel reserves, which emit CO2, SOx gases and various other pollutants. So does the search for fuels that emit fewer pollutants and have the same energy efficiency. In this context, hydrogen (H2) has been increasingly recognized as a potential carrier of energy for the near future. This is because the H2 can be obtained by different routes and has a wide application area , in addition to having clean burning, generating only H2O as a product of combustion , and higher energy density per unit mass . The Chemical Looping Reforming process (CLR) has been extensively investigated in recent years, it is possible to regenerate the catalyst by applying cycles of reduction and oxidation. This work has as main objective to develop catalysts based on nickel and cobalt to study the reactivity of reform with chemical recycling process. The catalysts were prepared by three different methods: combustion assisted by microwave, wet impregnation and co-precipitation. All catalysts synthesized have the same amount by weight of the active phases (60% w / w). The other 40 % m/m consists in La2O3 (8% w / w), Al2O3 (30% w / w) and MgO (2%). Oxygen carriers have been named as follows: N or C, nickel or cobalt, followed by the number 3 or 6, meaning 30 to 60% of active phase in the oxide form and C, CI or CP, which means self-combustion assisted by microwave, self-combustion assisted by microwave followed by wet impregnation and co-precipitation. The oxygen carriers were then characterized by the techniques of X-ray diffraction (XRD), surface area (BET), temperature programmed reduction (TPR) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The characterization results showed that the different synthesis methods have led to obtaining different morphologies and structures. Redox tests using CH4 as reducing agent and sintetic air as oxidant agent was done with N6C and C6C, N6CI and C6CI and N6CP and C6CP oxygen carriers. The tests revealed different behaviors, depending on active phase and on synthesis procedure. N6C oxygen carrier produced high levels of H2. The C6CI oxygen carrier produced CO2 and H2O without carbon deposits.

Younger Dryas-Holocene sedimentary plant-wax hydrogen isotopes from the southern European Alps

We present a Younger Dryas-Holocene record of the hydrogen isotopic composition of sedimentary plant waxes (dDwax) from the southern European Alps (Lake Ghirla, N-Italy) to investigate its sensitivity to climatic forcing variations in this mid-latitude region (45°N). A modern altitudinal transect of dD values of river water and leaf waxes in the Lake Ghirla catchment is used to test present-day climate sensitivity of dDwax. While we find that altitudinal effects on dDwax are minor at our study site, temperature, precipitation amount, and evapotranspiration all appear to influence dDwax to varying extents. In the lake-sediment record, dDwax values vary between -134 and -180 per mil over the past 13 kyr. The long-term Holocene pattern of dDwax parallels the trend of decreasing temperature and is thus likely forced by the decline of northern hemisphere summer insolation. Shorter-term fluctuations, in contrast, may reflect both temperature and moisture-source changes. During the cool Younger Dryas and Little Ice Age (LIA) periods we observe unexpectedly high dDwax values relative to those before and after. We suggest that a change towards a more D-enriched moisture source is required during these intervals. In fact, a shift from northern N-Atlantic to southern N-Atlantic/western Mediterranean Sea sources would be consistent with a southward migration of the Westerlies with climate cooling. Prominent dDwax fluctuations in the early and middle Holocene are negative and potentially associated with temperature declines. In the late Holocene (<4 kyr BP), excursions are partly positive (as for the LIA) suggesting a stronger influence of moisture-source changes on dDwax variation. In addition to isotopic fractionations of the hydrological cycle, changes in vegetation composition, in the length of the growing season, and in snowfall amount provide additional potential sources of variability, although we cannot yet quantitatively assess these in the paleo-record. We conclude that while our dDwax record from the Alps does contain climatic information, it is a complicated record that would require additional constraints to be robustly interpreted. This also has important implications for other water-isotope-based proxy records of precipitation and hydro-climate from this region, such as cave speleothems.