The gain-loss asymmetry and single-self preferences

Kahneman and Tversky asserted a fundamental asymmetry between gains and losses, namely a reflection effect which occurs when an individual prefers a sure gain of $ pz to anuncertain gain of $ z with probability p, while preferring an uncertain loss of $z with probability p to a certain loss of $ pz.We focus on this class of choices (actuarially fair), and explore the extent to which thereflection effect, understood as occurring at a range of wealth levels, is compatible with single-self preferences.We decompose the reflection effect into two components, a probability switch effect,which is compatible with single-self preferences, and a translation effect, which is not. To argue the first point, we analyze two classes of single-self, nonexpected utility preferences, which we label homothetic and weakly homothetic. In both cases, we characterize the switch effect as well as the dependence of risk attitudes on wealth.We also discuss two types of utility functions of a form reminiscent of expected utility but with distorted probabilities. Type I always distorts the probability of the worst outcome downwards, yielding attraction to small risks for all probabilities. Type II distorts low probabilities upwards, and high probabilities downwards, implying risk aversion when the probability of the worst outcome is low. By combining homothetic or weak homothetic preferences with Type I or Type II distortion functions, we present four explicit examples: All four display a switch effect and, hence, a form of reflection effect consistent a single self preferences.

Speculative dynamics in the term structure of interest rates

When long maturity bonds are traded frequently and traders have non-nestedinformation sets, speculative behavior in the sense of Harrison and Kreps (1978) arises.Using a term structure model displaying such speculative behavior, this paper proposesa conceptually and observationally distinct new mechanism generating time varying predictableexcess returns. It is demonstrated that (i) dispersion of expectations about futureshort rates is sufficient for individual traders to systematically predict excess returns and(ii) the new term structure dynamics driven by speculative trade is orthogonal to publicinformation in real time, but (iii) can nevertheless be quantified using only publicly availableyield data. The model is estimated using monthly data on US short to medium termTreasuries from 1964 to 2007 and it provides a good fit of the data. Speculative dynamicsare found to be quantitatively important, potentially accounting for a substantial fractionof the variation of bond yields and appears to be more important at long maturities.

Os Interesses e as Escolhas Profissionais de Acordo com os 6 Tipos de Personalidade Propostos por Holland (Riasec) numa Amostra de Estudantes do Ensino Superior em Cabo Verde

Tendo por base a teoria dos interesses e das escolhas vocacionais e o modelo RIASEC propostos por Holland, (1973, 1985, 1997) a presente investigação pretende saber como se caracterizam os interesses profissionais dos alunos que frequentam diferentes Cursos Superiores em Cabo Verde e avaliar as características psicométricas do instrumento utilizado. Pretende-se ainda averiguar se existe congruência ou não entre os interesses dos estudantes e os cursos que frequentam, bem como verificar se há diferenças nos interesses avaliados em função do género e do estatuto socioeconómico. Nesta investigação participaram 250 estudantes de três instituições de Ensino Superior da Cidade da Praia, Ilha de Santiago em Cabo Verde. Foi aplicado o Inventário de Interesse de Exploração Autodirigida (SDS), versão em língua portuguesa (Primi, Mansão, Muniz, & Nunes, 2010). Os resultados obtidos confirmam as adequadas características psicométricas do instrumento nesta população e estão de acordo com as previsões do modelo acima referido

"As you receive with one hand, so should you give with the other": the mutual-help practices of Cape Verdeans on the Lisbon periphery”

Rural Cape Verdeans employ a number of mutual-help practices to mitigate the uncertainties surrounding activities fundamental to their subsistence. One of these practices is djunta mon (‘to work together’), a loosely planned, non-monetized system of allocating labor at peak intervals during the growing season. By means of djunta mon, neighbors or family members work in each other’s fields until the tasks of every landowning participant are complete. Alongside djunta mon in rural Cape Verde exist a number of other non-remunerated mutual-help practices, such as djuda mutua (‘mutual help’) and laja kaza (‘to add concrete to one’s house’). While less visible than djunta mon, they are nonetheless important in completing tasks essential to rural life in the islands. In this thesis, I will attempt to show how Cape Verdean immigrants in Lisbon have adapted the mutual-help practices of rural Cape Verde to a new, transnational context. The iterations of these practices in Lisbon differ from their rural counterparts in that they involve fewer people, occur on a year-round basis, and are concerned primarily with domestic work. They also help people find employment, access childcare, secure interest-free credit, and construct or repair houses. I will argue that extensive mutual-help ties ensure Cape Verdean migrants in Lisbon a sufficient pool of family and friends upon which they can rely for support and assistance. An additional element I will explore is the perception among Cape Verdean immigrants that these mutual-help practices seem to be occurring with less frequency. While this shift is in part due to the availability of other means of support, I will contend that the changing attitude of Cape Verdeans towards mutual help is also due to their encountering neoliberal notions of ‘self-accountability.’ Thus, Cape Verdeans perceive that their mutual-help practices are in decline, while simultaneously needing the material support that they provide.

Interest rate restrictions in a natural experiment: loan allocation and the change in the usury laws in 1714

This article studies the effects of interest rate restrictions on loan allocation. The British governmenttightened the usury laws in 1714, reducing the maximum permissible interest rate from 6% to5%. A sample of individual loan transactions reveals that average loan size and minimum loan sizeincreased strongly, while access to credit worsened for those with little social capital. Collateralisedcredits, which had accounted for a declining share of total lending, returned to their former role ofprominence. Our results suggest that the usury laws distorted credit markets significantly; we findno evidence that they offered a form of Pareto-improving social insurance.

Are tax subsidies for private medical insurance self-financing? Evidence from a microsimulation model for outpatient and inpatient episodes

This paper analyses whether or not tax subsidies to private medicalinsurance are self-financing by means of a structural approach. Weconstruct a simulation routine based on a microeconometric discretechoice model that allows us to evaluate the impact of premium changeson the utilisation of outpatient and inpatient health care services. Wesimulate the 1999 Spanish tax reform that abolished the tax deductionfor expenditures on private health insurance using a representativesample of the Catalan population. Prior to this reform, foregone taxrevenue arising from deductions after the purchase of private insuranceamounted to 69.2 M. per year. In contrast, the elimination of thesubsidies to private policies is estimated to generate an extra costfor the public sector of about 8.9 M. per year.

Constant interest rate projections without the curse of indeterminacy

Constant interest rate (CIR) projections are often criticized on the grounds that they are inconsistent with the existence of a unique equilibrium in a variety of forward-looking models. This note shows howto construct CIR projections that are not subject to that criticism, using a standard New Keynesian model as a reference framework.

Risk management under a two-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

This paper presents several applications to interest rate risk managementbased on a two-factor continuous-time model of the term structure of interestrates previously presented in Moreno (1996). This model assumes that defaultfree discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and twofactors, the long-term interest rate and the spread (difference between thelong-term rate and the short-term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Several newmeasures of ``generalized duration" are presented and applied in differentsituations in order to manage market risk and yield curve risk. By means ofthese measures, we are able to compute the hedging ratios that allows us toimmunize a bond portfolio by means of options on bonds. Focusing on thehedging problem, it is shown that these new measures allow us to immunize abond portfolio against changes (parallel and/or in the slope) in the yieldcurve. Finally, a proposal of solution of the limitations of conventionalduration by means of these new measures is presented and illustratednumerically.

How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?

Self-reported home values are widely used as a measure of housing wealth by researchers employing a variety of data sets and studying a number of different individual and household level decisions. The accuracy of this measure is an open empirical question, and requires some type of market assessment of the values reported. In this research, we study the predictive power of self-reported housing wealth when estimating sales prices utilizing the Health and Retirement Study. We find that homeowners, on average, overestimate the value of their properties by between 5% and 10%. More importantly, we are the first to document a strong correlation between accuracy and the economic conditions at the time of the purchase of the property (measured by the prevalent interest rate, the growth of household income, and the growth of median housing prices). While most individuals overestimate the value of their properties, those who bought during more difficult economic times tend to be more accurate, and in some cases even underestimate the value of their house. These results establish a surprisingly strong, likely permanent, and in many cases long-lived, effect of the initial conditions surrounding the purchases of properties, on how individuals value them. This cyclicality of the overestimation of house prices can provide some explanations for the difficulties currently faced by many homeowners, who were expecting large appreciations in home value to rescue them in case of increases in interest rates which could jeopardize their ability to live up to their financial commitments.

On the timing of balance of payments crises: Disaggregated information and interest rate policy

This paper proposes a dynamic framework to study the timing of balance of paymentscrises. The model incorporates two main ingredients: (i) investors have private information; (ii)investors interact in a dynamic setting, weighing the high returns on domestic assets against the incentives to pull out before the devaluation. The model shows that the presence of disaggregated information delays the onset of BOP crises, giving rise to discrete devaluations. It also shows that high interest rates can be eective in delaying and possibly avoiding the abandonment of the peg. The optimal policy is to raise interest rates sharply as fundamentals become very weak. However, this policy is time inconsistent, suggesting a role for commitment devices such as currency boards or IMF pressure.

A two-mean reverting-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

This paper presents a two--factor model of the term structure ofinterest rates. We assume that default free discount bond prices aredetermined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long--term interestrate and the spread (difference between the long--term rate and theshort--term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Assuming that both factorsfollow a joint Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process, a general bond pricing equationis derived. We obtain a closed--form expression for bond prices andexamine its implications for the term structure of interest rates. We alsoderive a closed--form solution for interest rate derivatives prices. Thisexpression is applied to price European options on discount bonds andmore complex types of options. Finally, empirical evidence of the model'sperformance is presented.

Subsampling inference in threshold autoregressive models

This paper discusses inference in self exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR)models. Of main interest is inference for the threshold parameter. It iswell-known that the asymptotics of the corresponding estimator depend uponwhether the SETAR model is continuous or not. In the continuous case, thelimiting distribution is normal and standard inference is possible. Inthe discontinuous case, the limiting distribution is non-normal and cannotbe estimated consistently. We show valid inference can be drawn by theuse of the subsampling method. Moreover, the method can even be extendedto situations where the (dis)continuity of the model is unknown. In thiscase, also the inference for the regression parameters of the modelbecomes difficult and subsampling can be used advantageously there aswell. In addition, we consider an hypothesis test for the continuity ofthe SETAR model. A simulation study examines small sample performance.

Self-paced Movement Intention Detection from Human Brain Signals: Invasive and Non-invasive EEG

Neural signatures of humans' movement intention can be exploited by future neuroprosthesis. We propose a method for detecting self-paced upper limb movement intention from brain signals acquired with both invasive and noninvasive methods. In the first study with scalp electroencephalograph (EEG) signals from healthy controls, we report single trial detection of movement intention using movement related potentials (MRPs) in a frequency range between 0.1 to 1 Hz. Movement intention can be detected above chance level (p<0.05) on average 460 ms before the movement onset with low detection rate during the on-movement intention period. Using intracranial EEG (iEEG) from one epileptic subject, we detect movement intention as early as 1500 ms before movement onset with accuracy above 90% using electrodes implanted in the bilateral supplementary motor area (SMA). The coherent results obtained with non-invasive and invasive method and its generalization capabilities across different days of recording, strengthened the theory that self-paced movement intention can be detected before movement initiation for the advancement in robot-assisted neurorehabilitation.