An approach for identifying the limit states of resilience of a water supply system

This paper presents an approach for identifying the limit states of resilience in a water supply system when influenced by different types of pressure (disturbing) forces. Understanding of systemic resilience facilitates identification of the trigger points for early managerial action to avoid further loss of ability to provide satisfactory service availability when the ability to supply water is under pressure. The approach proposed here is to illustrate the usefulness of a surrogate measure of resilience depicted in a three dimensional space encompassing independent pressure factors. That enables visualisation of the transition of the system-state (resilience) between high to low resilience regions and acts as an early warning trigger for decision-making. The necessity of a surrogate measure arises as a means of linking resilience to the identified pressures as resilience cannot be measured directly. The basis for identifying the resilience surrogate and exploring the interconnected relationships within the complete system, is derived from a meta-system model consisting of three nested sub-systems representing the water catchment and reservoir; treatment plant; and the distribution system and end-users. This approach can be used as a framework for assessing levels of resilience in different infrastructure systems by identifying a surrogate measure and its relationship to relevant pressures acting on the system.

Crisis response planning in tunnel and road networks

Critical road infrastructure (such as tunnels and overpasses) is of major significance to society and constitutes major components of interdependent, ‘systems and networks’. Failure in critical components of these wide area infrastructure systems can often result in cascading disturbances with secondary and tertiary impacts - some of which may become initiating sources of failure in their own right, triggering further systems failures across wider networks. Perrow1) considered the impact of our increasing use of technology in high-risk fields, analysing the implications on everyday life and argued that designers of these types of infrastructure systems cannot predict every possible failure scenario nor create perfect contingency plans for operators. Challenges exist for transport system operators in the conceptualisation and implementation of response and subsequent recovery planning for significant events. Disturbances can vary from reduced traffic flow causing traffic congestion throughout the local road network(s) and subsequent possible loss of income to businesses and industry to a major incident causing loss of life or complete loss of an asset. Many organisations and institutions, despite increasing recognition of the effects of crisis events, are not adequately prepared to manage crises2). It is argued that operators of land transport infrastructure are in a similar category of readiness given the recent instances of failures in road tunnels. These unexpected infrastructure failures, and their ultimately identified causes, suggest there is significant room for improvement. As a result, risk profiles for road transport systems are often complex due to the human behaviours and the inter-mix of technical and organisational components and the managerial coverage needed for the socio-technical components and the physical infrastructure. In this sense, the span of managerial oversight may require new approaches to asset management that combines the notion of risk and continuity management. This paper examines challenges in the planning of response and recovery practices of owner/operators of transport systems (above and below ground) in Australia covering: • Ageing or established infrastructure; and • New-build infrastructure. With reference to relevant international contexts this paper seeks to suggest options for enhancing the planning and practice for crisis response in these transport networks and as a result support the resilience of Critical Infrastructure.

Intelligent reliability analysis with incomplete covariates

The reliability analysis is crucial to reducing unexpected down time, severe failures and ever tightened maintenance budget of engineering assets. Hazard based reliability methods are of particular interest as hazard reflects the current health status of engineering assets and their imminent failure risks. Most existing hazard models were constructed using the statistical methods. However, these methods were established largely based on two assumptions: one is the assumption of baseline failure distributions being accurate to the population concerned and the other is the assumption of effects of covariates on hazards. These two assumptions may be difficult to achieve and therefore compromise the effectiveness of hazard models in the application. To address this issue, a non-linear hazard modelling approach is developed in this research using neural networks (NNs), resulting in neural network hazard models (NNHMs), to deal with limitations due to the two assumptions for statistical models. With the success of failure prevention effort, less failure history becomes available for reliability analysis. Involving condition data or covariates is a natural solution to this challenge. A critical issue for involving covariates in reliability analysis is that complete and consistent covariate data are often unavailable in reality due to inconsistent measuring frequencies of multiple covariates, sensor failure, and sparse intrusive measurements. This problem has not been studied adequately in current reliability applications. This research thus investigates such incomplete covariates problem in reliability analysis. Typical approaches to handling incomplete covariates have been studied to investigate their performance and effects on the reliability analysis results. Since these existing approaches could underestimate the variance in regressions and introduce extra uncertainties to reliability analysis, the developed NNHMs are extended to include handling incomplete covariates as an integral part. The extended versions of NNHMs have been validated using simulated bearing data and real data from a liquefied natural gas pump. The results demonstrate the new approach outperforms the typical incomplete covariates handling approaches. Another problem in reliability analysis is that future covariates of engineering assets are generally unavailable. In existing practices for multi-step reliability analysis, historical covariates were used to estimate the future covariates. Covariates of engineering assets, however, are often subject to substantial fluctuation due to the influence of both engineering degradation and changes in environmental settings. The commonly used covariate extrapolation methods thus would not be suitable because of the error accumulation and uncertainty propagation. To overcome this difficulty, instead of directly extrapolating covariate values, projection of covariate states is conducted in this research. The estimated covariate states and unknown covariate values in future running steps of assets constitute an incomplete covariate set which is then analysed by the extended NNHMs. A new assessment function is also proposed to evaluate risks of underestimated and overestimated reliability analysis results. A case study using field data from a paper and pulp mill has been conducted and it demonstrates that this new multi-step reliability analysis procedure is able to generate more accurate analysis results.

Sharia-compliant financing in Indonesia infrastructure projects

As the adoption of project financing is gaining momentum, there is a concurrent need of innovation in project financing scheme in order to accelerate infrastructure assets provision in Indonesia. As the largest Muslim population in the world, sharia-compliant financing offers tremendous potential as a source for infrastructure financing for Indonesia. To realize this potential, there is a need of a framework to guide its adoption. Hence this paper discusses the potential implementation of Islamic finance to fund infrastructure projects in Indonesia. Through comparative analysis, this paper illustrates how Islamic principles can be incorporated into Indonesian infrastructure project financing.

Recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments : are the rules appropriate?

The recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments is an aspect of private international law, and concerns situations where a successful party to litigation seeks to rely on a judgment obtained in one court, in a court in another jurisdiction. The most common example where the recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments may arise is where a party who has obtained a favourable judgment in one state or country may seek to recognise and enforce the judgment in another state or country. This occurs because there is no sufficient asset in the state or country where the judgment was rendered to satisfy that judgment. As technological advancements in communications over vast geographical distances have improved exponentially in recent years, there has been an increase in cross-border transactions, as well as litigation arising from these transactions. As a result, the recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments is of increasing importance, since a party who has obtained a judgment in cross-border litigation may wish to recognise and enforce the judgment in another state or country, where the defendant’s assets may be located without having to re-litigate substantive issues that have already been resolved in another court. The purpose of the study is to examine whether the current state of laws for the recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments in Australia, the United States and the European Community are in line with modern-commercial needs. The study is conducted by weighing two competing objectives between the notion of finality of litigation, which encourages courts to recognise and enforce judgments foreign to them, on the one hand, and the adequacy of protection to safeguard the recognition and enforcement proceedings, so that there would be no injustice or unfairness if a foreign judgment is recognised and enforced, on the other. The findings of the study are as follows. In both Australia and the United States, there is a different approach concerning the recognition and enforcement of judgments rendered by courts interstate or in a foreign country. In order to maintain a single and integrated nation, there are constitutional and legislative requirements authorising courts to give conclusive effects to interstate judgments. In contrast, if the recognition and enforcement actions involve judgments rendered by a foreign country’s court, an Australian or a United States court will not recognise and enforce the foreign judgment unless the judgment has satisfied a number of requirements and does not fall under any of the exceptions to justify its non-recognition and non-enforcement. In the European Community, the Brussels I Regulation which governs the recognition and enforcement of judgments among European Union Member States has created a scheme, whereby there is only a minimal requirement that needs to be satisfied for the purposes of recognition and enforcement. Moreover, a judgment that is rendered by a Member State and based on any of the jurisdictional bases set forth in the Brussels I Regulation is entitled to be recognised and enforced in another Member State without further review of its underlying jurisdictional basis. However, there are concerns as to the adequacy of protection available under the Brussels I Regulation to safeguard the judgment-enforcing Member States, as well as those against whom recognition or enforcement is sought. This dissertation concludes by making two recommendations aimed at improving the means by which foreign judgments are recognised and enforced in the selected jurisdictions. The first is for the law in both Australia and the United States to undergo reform, including: adopting the real and substantial connection test as the new jurisdictional basis for the purposes of recognition and enforcement; liberalising the existing defences to safeguard the application of the real and substantial connection test; extending the application of the Foreign Judgments Act 1991 (Cth) in Australia to include at least its important trading partners; and implementing a federal statutory scheme in the United States to govern the recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments. The second recommendation is to introduce a convention on jurisdiction and the recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments. The convention will be a convention double, which provides uniform standards for the rules of jurisdiction a court in a contracting state must exercise when rendering a judgment and a set of provisions for the recognition and enforcement of resulting judgments.

Reducing the Risk of Alcohol and Other Drugs in Construction : An Australian Assessment

There is increasing concern about the impact of employees’ alcohol and other drug (AOD) consumption on workplace safety, particularly within the construction industry. No known study has scientifically evaluated the relationship between the use of drugs and alcohol and safety impacts in construction, and there has been only limited adoption of nationally coordinated strategies, supported by employers and employees to render it socially unacceptable to arrive at a construction workplace with impaired judgment from AODs. This research aims to scientifically evaluate the use of AODs within the Australian construction industry in order to reduce the potential resulting safety and performance impacts and engender a cultural change in the workforce. Using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), the study will adopt both quantitative and qualitative methods to evaluate the extent of general AOD use in the industry. Results indicate that a proportion of the construction sector may be at risk of hazardous alcohol consumption. A total of 286 respondents (58%) scored above the cut-off score for risky alcohol use with 43 respondents (15%) scoring in the significantly ‘at risk’ category. Other drug use was also identified as a major issue that must be addressed. Results support the need for evidence-based, preventative educational initiatives that are tailored specifically to the construction industry.

Susceptibility of the critical structural components of railway bridges to the changes in train speed

Modern trains with different axle configurations, speeds and loads are used in railway networks. As a result, one of the most important questions of the mangers involved in bridge managements systems (BMS) is how these changes affect the structural behavior of the critical components of the railway bridges. Although researchers have conducted, many investigations on the dynamic effects of the moving loads on bridges, the influence of the changes in the speed of the train on the demand by capacity ratios of the different critical components of the bridge have not yet been properly studied. This study is important, because different components with different capacities and roles for carrying loads in the structure may be affected differently. To investigate the above phenomenon in this research, a structural model of a simply supported bridge is developed. It will be verified that the dynamic behavior of this bridge is similar to a group of railway bridges in Australia. Demand by capacity ratios of the critical components of the bridge, when it is subjected to a train load with different speeds will be calculated. The results show that the effect of increase or decrease of speed should not be underestimated. The outcome is very significant as it is contrary to what is currently expected, i.e. by reducing the speed of the train, the demand by capacity ratio of components may increase and make the bridge unsafe for carrying live load.

Customer equity management : the impact of strategy drivers and customer data management on customer equity outcomes

This research contributes to the field of customer equity by examining how important the strategy drivers of consumption and customer data management are in contributing to the value of the customer asset. A mixed methods approach focused on one sector: the Australian accommodation hotels. From this research, a deeper understanding of how to theorise, conceptualise and practice customer equity management has been achieved.

Examining the stability of transport behaviours for high-risk early adolescents

Transport related injury is a leading cause of death and disability for adolescents and represents a substantial burden on public health and the community as a whole. Adolescents appear to have a growing risk of harm due to the co-existence of increasing alcohol use and engagement in risky transport behaviours. Understanding more about the development and stability of these behaviours by young adolescents over time could be beneficial in targeting transport injury prevention interventions for high-risk adolescents. In Australia alcohol use begins to increase significantly through the early and middle adolescent years even though the majority of these young people are still in school. Aim This paper reports on changes over a six month period in alcohol use, anger management experiences and transport risk taking behaviours including riding a bicycle without a helmet and under-age driving for high-risk adolescents and non high-risk early adolescents. Year 9 students (N=1,005) from 20 schools in Queensland, Australia completed a baseline survey in the first half of 2012 and at a six month follow up. Respondents at both times were asked about their engagement in risk taking behaviours measured by Mak’s adolescent delinquency scale, which included five transport related items. They were also asked to rate their alcohol use for the preceding three month period. The stability of these risk taking indicators was measured by comparing baseline results with the six month follow up. Results High-risk adolescents were more likely to report change in their alcohol use and transport behaviours when compared with non high-risk adolescents over a six month period. There were no significant changes in control of anger for either group. Demographic characteristics were not shown to have any significant effect on the stability of risk indicators for high-risk adolescents and non high-risk adolescents. Differences were found in the stability of risk taking indicators for high-risk adolescents and non high-risk adolescents. The findings of this paper have implications in targeting transport risk behaviour change interventions to meet the needs of high-risk adolescents.

Pre-crash and non-crash traffic flow trends analysis on motorways

Crashes that occur on motorways contribute to a significant proportion (40-50%) of non-recurrent motorway congestions. Hence, reducing the frequency of crashes assists in addressing congestion issues (Meyer, 2008). Crash likelihood estimation studies commonly focus on traffic conditions in a short time window around the time of a crash while longer-term pre-crash traffic flow trends are neglected. In this paper we will show, through data mining techniques that a relationship between pre-crash traffic flow patterns and crash occurrence on motorways exists. We will compare them with normal traffic trends and show this knowledge has the potential to improve the accuracy of existing models and opens the path for new development approaches. The data for the analysis was extracted from records collected between 2007 and 2009 on the Shibuya and Shinjuku lines of the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway in Japan. The dataset includes a total of 824 rear-end and sideswipe crashes that have been matched with crashes corresponding to traffic flow data using an incident detection algorithm. Traffic trends (traffic speed time series) revealed that crashes can be clustered with regards to the dominant traffic patterns prior to the crash. Using the K-Means clustering method with Euclidean distance function allowed the crashes to be clustered. Then, normal situation data was extracted based on the time distribution of crashes and were clustered to compare with the “high risk” clusters. Five major trends have been found in the clustering results for both high risk and normal conditions. The study discovered traffic regimes had differences in the speed trends. Based on these findings, crash likelihood estimation models can be fine-tuned based on the monitored traffic conditions with a sliding window of 30 minutes to increase accuracy of the results and minimize false alarms.

Surrogate indicators for assessing community resilience

The importance of community resilience to natural disasters is being increasingly recognised. This paper presents an approach for the development of surrogate indicators for comprehensive assessment of community resilience, which is crucial in the context of predicted increase in natural disasters resulting from extreme weather events due to climate change. The use of surrogate indicators is advocated because a comprehensive assessment of community resilience across various thematic areas and associated key areas requires the measurement of a large number of resilience indicators which is not always feasible due to time and resource constraints, To overcome this, researchers tend to use secondary data sources, which are easily available but not always reliable. This highlights the need for surrogate indicators that are easy to measure from reliable primary data sources and are adequate to capture the resilience of a community. Firstly, the paper discusses the two approaches for defining and conceptualising community resilience and the need to account for the complex interrelationships between thematic areas, key areas and resilience indicators and their implications for research. Secondly, a comprehensive framework for the assessment of community resilience is proposed and the difficulties associated with the measurement of overall resilience of the community are discussed. Thirdly, the paper explains a two-step approach to develop surrogate indicators highlighting the necessity and challenges associated with it. Finally, the proposed approach is elaborated with a simple example for better understanding.

The need for and appropriate application of spatial data for disaster management and strengthening community resilience

It is only in recent years that the critical role that spatial data can play in disaster management and strengthening community resilience has been recognised. The recognition of this importance is singularly evident from the fact that in Australia spatial data is considered as soft infrastructure. In the aftermath of every disaster this importance is being increasingly strengthened with state agencies paying greater attention to ensuring the availability of accurate spatial data based on the lessons learnt. For example, the major flooding in Queensland during the summer of 2011 resulted in a comprehensive review of responsibilities and accountability for the provision of spatial information during such natural disasters. A high level commission of enquiry completed a comprehensive investigation of the 2011 Brisbane flood inundation event and made specific recommendations concerning the collection of and accessibility to spatial information for disaster management and for strengthening community resilience during and after a natural disaster. The lessons learnt and processes implemented were subsequently tested by natural disasters during subsequent years. This paper provides an overview of the practical implementation of the recommendations of the commission of enquiry. It focuses particularly on the measures adopted by the state agencies with the primary role for managing spatial data and the evolution of this role in Queensland State, Australia. The paper concludes with a review of the development of the role and the increasing importance of spatial data as an infrastructure for disaster planning and management which promotes the strengthening of community resilience.

The engagement of small to medium enterprises for managing waste in building retrofit projects

The market of building retrofits is increasingly more intensified as existing buildings are aging. The building retrofit projects involve existing buildings which impose constraints on stakeholders throughout the project process. They are also risky, complex, less predictable and difficult to be well planned with on-site waste becoming one of the critical issues. Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) carry out most of the work in retrofit projects as subcontractors, but they often do not have adequate resources to deal with the specific technical challenges and project risks related to waste. This paper first discusses the requirements of waste management in building retrofit projects considering specific project characteristics and work natures, and highlights the importance of involving SMEs in waste planning and management through an appropriate way. By utilizing semi-structured interviews, this research develops a process model for SMEs to be applied in waste management. A collaboration scenario is also developed for collaborative waste planning and management by SMEs as subcontractors and large companies as main contractors. Findings from the paper will promote coordination of project delivery and waste management in building retrofit projects, and improve the involvement and performance of SMEs in dealing with waste problems.

Are target date funds the easy bake option?

Target date funds provide a simple, automated approach to retirement savings in defined contribution plans. The passing of the Pension Protection Act of 2006 has seen an increase in the popularity of these funds in the United States, becoming the default option for many plans. However, recent research findings have challenged the easy bake or ‘set-and-forget’ nature of target date funds. This study explores some of the critical design features of target date funds (which shifts an individual’s asset allocation from growth to defensive assets following a pre-set glidepath) against a simple balanced (or target risk) fund design. Using both time-weighted and dollar-weighted returns, our results suggest that there is more to achieving successful retirement outcomes than the investor simply selecting a proposed year of retirement. Our findings can perhaps be summarized by Einstein’s famous epithet, that in the murky world of retirement product design, everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.

Principles of investments

"Emphasises asset allocation while presenting the practical applications of investment theory. The authors concentrate on the intuition and insights that will be useful to students throughout their careers as new ideas and challenges emerge from the financial marketplace. It provides a good foundation to understand the basic types of securities and financial markets as well as how trading in those markets is conducted. The Portfolio Management section is discussed towards the end of the course and supported by a web-based portfolio simulation with a hypothetical $100,000 brokerage account to buy and sell stocks and mutual funds. Students get a chance to use real data found in the Wall Street Survivor simulation in conjunction with the chapters on investments. This site is powered by StockTrak, the leading provider of investment simulation services to the academic community. Principles of Investments includes increased attention to changes in market structure and trading technology. The theory is supported by a wide range of exercises, worksheets and problems."--publisher website Contents: Investments: background and issues -- Asset classes and financial markets -- Securities markets -- Managed funds and investment management -- Risk and return: past and prologue -- Efficient diversification -- Capital asset pricing and arbitrage pricing theory -- The efficient market hypothesis -- Bond prices and yields -- Managing bond portfolios -- Equity valuation -- Macroeconomic and industry analysis -- Financial statement analysis -- Investors and the investment process -- Hedge funds -- Portfolio performance evaluation.