The interaction between the equity premium and the risk-free rate

The equity premium arises from the interaction between the atemporal risk premium for equity, the risk-free rate of intertemporal substitution and the impact of risk on the precautionary motive for saving. Depending on parameter values, the equity premium may either be increased or reduced by the presence of undiversifiable background risk. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Delayed onset of electromyographic activity of vastus medialis obliquus relative to vastus lateralis in subjects with patellofemoral pain syndrome

Objective: To determine whether electromyographic (EMG) onsets of vastus medialis obliquus (VMO) and vastus lateralis (VL) are altered in the presence of patellofemoral pain syndrome (PFPS) during the functional task of stair stepping. Design: Cross-sectional. Setting: University laboratory. Patients: Thirty-three subjects with PFPS and 33 asymptomatic controls. Interventions: Subjects ascended and descended a set of stairs-2 steps, each 20-cm high-at usual stair-stepping pace. EMG readings of VMO and VL taken on middle stair during step up (concentric contraction) and step down (eccentric contraction). Main Outcome Measures: Relative difference in onset of surface EMG activity of VMO compared with VL during a stair-stepping task. EMG onsets were determined by using a computer algorithm and were verified visually. Results: In the PFPS population, the EMG onset of VL occurred before that of VMO in both the step up and step down phases of the stair-stepping task (p < .05). In contrast, no such differences occurred in the onsets of EMG activity of VMO and VL in either phase of the task for the control subjects. Conclusion: This finding supports the hypothesized relationship between changes in the timings of activity of the vastimuscles and PFPS. This finding provides theoretical rationale to support physiotherapy treatment commonly used in the management of PFPs.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

Paternal age as a risk factor for psychosis and schizophrenia: Findings from Denmark, Sweden and Australia

The offspringof older fathers have an increased risk of various disorders that may be due to the accumulation of DNA mutations during spermatogenesis. Previous studies have suggested increased paternal age may be a risk factor for schizophrenia. The aim of the current study was to examine paternal age as a risk factor for schizophrenia andror psychosis. We used data from three sources: a population-based cohort studyŽDenmark., and two case-control studiesŽSweden and Australia.. In the Danish and Australian studies, we examined both psychosis and schizophrenia. In the Swedish study we examined psychosis only. After controllingfor the effect of maternal age, increased paternal age was significantly associated with increased risk of both psychosis and schizophrenia in the Danish study and of psychosis in the Swedish study. The Australian study found no association between paternal age and risk of psychosis or schizophrenia. In all three studies the relationship between paternal age and risk of disorder in the offspring was AUB-shaped. In addition to an increased risk for the offspringof older father Ž)35 years., there was a non-significant increase for the offspringof fathers aged less than 20 years. The possible role of paternally derived DNA mutations andror other psychosocial factors associated with older paternal age warrants further research. The ‘U’-shaped relationship suggests that factors other than DNA mutations may warrant consideration in this research. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

How to do safe sternal reentry and the risk factors of redo cardiac surgery: A 21-year review with zero major cardiac injury

Objectives: Resternotomy is a common part of cardiac surgical practice. Associated with resternotomy are the risks of cardiac injury and catastrophic hemorrhage and the subsequent elevated morbidity and mortality in the operating room or during the postoperative period. The technique of direct vision resternotomy is safe and has fewer, if any, serious cardiac injuries. The technique, the reduced need for groin cannulation and the overall low operative mortality and morbidity are the focus of this restrospective analysis. Methods: The records of 495 patients undergoing 546 resternotomies over a 21-year period to January 2000 were reviewed. All consecutive reoperations by the one surgeon comprised patients over the age of 20 at first resternotomy: M:F 343:203, mean age 57 years (range 20 to 85, median age 60). The mean NYHA grade was 2.3 [with 67 patients (1), 273 (11),159 (111), 43 (IV), and 4 (V classification)] with elective reoperation in 94.6%. Cardiac injury was graded into five groups and the incidence and reasons for groin cannulation estimated. The morbidity and mortality as a result of the reoperation and resternotomy were assessed. Results: The hospital/30 day mortality was 2.9% (95% Cl: 1.6%-4.4%) (16 deaths) over the 21 years. First (481), second (53), and third (12) resternotomies produced 307 uncomplicated technical reopenings, 203 slower but uncomplicated procedures, 9 minor superficial cardiac lacerations, and no moderate or severe cardiac injuries. Direct vision resternotomy is crystalized into the principle that only adhesions that are visualized from below are divided and only sternal bone that is freed of adhesions is sewn. Groin exposure was never performed prophylactically for resternotomy. Fourteen patients (2.6%) had such cannulation for aortic dissection/aneurysm (9 patients), excessive sternal adherence of cardiac structures (3 patients), presurgery cardiac arrest (1 patient), and high aortic cannulation desired and not possible (1 patient). The average postop blood loss was 594 mL (95% CI:558-631) in the first 12 hours. The need to return to the operating room for control of excessive bleeding was 2% (11 patients). Blood transfusion was given in 65% of the resternotomy procedures over the 21 years (mean 854 mL 95% Cl 765-945 mL) and 41% over the last 5 years. Conclusions: The technique of direct vision resternotomy has been associated with zero moderate or major cardiac injury/catastrophic hemorrhage at reoperation. Few patients have required groin cannulation. In the postoperative period, there was acceptable blood loss, transfusion rates, reduced morbidity, and moderate low mortality for this potentially high risk group.

Nonoxynol-9 spermicide for prevention of vaginally acquired HIV and other sexually transmitted infections: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials including more than 5000 women

We aimed to determine the effectiveness of the vaginally administered spermicide nonoxynol-9 (N-9) among women for the prevention of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs), We did a systematic review of randomised controlled trials, Nine such trials including 5096 women, predominantly sex workers, comparing N-9 with placebo or no treatment, were included. Primary outcomes were new HIV infection, new episodes of various STIs, and genital lesions. Five trials included HIV and nine included STI outcomes, and all but one (2% of the data) contributed to the meta-analysis. Overall, relative risks of HIV infection (1.12, 95% confidence interval 0.88-1.42), gonorrhoea (0.91, 0.67-1.24), chlamyclia (0.88, 0.77-1.01), cervical infection (1.01, 0.84-1-22), trichomoniasis (0.84, 0.69-1.02), bacterial vaginosis (0.88, 0.74-1.04) and candidiasis (0.97, 0.84-1.12) were not significantly different in the N-9 and placebo or no treatment groups. Genital lesions were more common in the N-9 group (1.18, 1.02-1.36). Our review has found no statistically significant reduction in risk of HIV and STIs, and the confidence intervals indicate that any protection that may exist is likely to be very small. There is some evidence of harm through genital lesions. N-9 cannot be recommended for HIV and STI prevention.

Epidemiological modelling (including economic modelling) and its role in preventive drug therapy

In contrast to curative therapies, preventive therapies are administered to largely healthy individuals over long periods. The risk-benefit and cost-benefit ratios are more likely to be unfavourable, making treatment decisions difficult. Drug trials provide insufficient information for treatment decisions, as they are conducted on highly selected populations over short durations, estimate only relative benefits of treatment and offer little information on risks and costs. Epidemiological modelling is a method of combining evidence from observational epidemiology and clinical trials to assist in clinical and health policy decision-making. It can estimate absolute benefits, risks and costs of long-term preventive strategies, and thus allow their precise targeting to individuals for whom they are safest and most cost-effective. Epidemiological modelling also allows explicit information about risks and benefits of therapy to be presented to patients, facilitating informed decision-making.

Relative motions of Africa, Iberia and Europe during Alpine orogeny

A revised kinematic model for the motions of Africa and Iberia relative to Europe since the Middle Jurassic is presented in order to provide boundary conditions for Alpine-Mediterranean reconstructions. These motions were calculated using up-to-date kinematic data predominantly based on magnetic isochrons in the Atlantic Ocean and published by various authors during the last 15 years. It is shown that convergence of Africa with respect to Europe commenced during the Cretaceous Normal Superchron (CNS), between chrons MO and 34 (120-83 Ma). This motion was subjected to fluctuations in convergence rates characterised by two periods of relatively rapid convergence (during Late Cretaceous and Eocene-Oligocene times) that alternated with periods of slower convergence (during the Paleocene and since the Early Miocene). Distinct changes in plate kinematics are recognised in the motion of Iberia with respect to Europe, indicated by: (1) a Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous left-lateral strike-slip motion; (2) Late Cretaceous convergence; (3) Paleocene quiescence; (4) a short period of right-lateral strike-slip motion; and (5) final Eocene-Oligocene convergence. Based on these results, it is speculated that a collisional episode in the Alpine orogeny at ca. 65 Ma resulted in a dramatic decrease in the relative plate motions and that a slower motion since the Early Miocene promoted extension in the Mediterranean back-arc basins. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The p35 relative, p49, inhibits mammalian and Drosophila caspases including DRONC and protects against apoptosis

This study characterized the ability of a new member of the p35 family, p49, to inhibit a number of mammalian and insect caspases. p49 blocked apoptosis triggered by treatment with Fas ligand (FasL), Tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) or ultraviolet (UV) radiation but provided negligible protection against apoptosis induced by the chemotherapeutic drug cisplatin. The caspase cleavage site in p49 was determined, and mutation of the 131 residue of this site abolished the ability of p49 to inhibit caspases, implying that p49 inhibits caspases through an analogous suicide-substrate mechanism to p35. Unlike p35, p49 inhibited the upstream insect caspase DRONC.