988 resultados para regression discontinuity design


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Failure to detect a species in an area where it is present is a major source of error in biological surveys. We assessed whether it is possible to optimize single-visit biological monitoring surveys of highly dynamic freshwater ecosystems by framing them a priori within a particular period of time. Alternatively, we also searched for the optimal number of visits and when they should be conducted. We developed single-species occupancy models to estimate the monthly probability of detection of pond-breeding amphibians during a four-year monitoring program. Our results revealed that detection probability was species-specific and changed among sampling visits within a breeding season and also among breeding seasons. Thereby, the optimization of biological surveys with minimal survey effort (a single visit) is not feasible as it proves impossible to select a priori an adequate sampling period that remains robust across years. Alternatively, a two-survey combination at the beginning of the sampling season yielded optimal results and constituted an acceptable compromise between sampling efficacy and survey effort. Our study provides evidence of the variability and uncertainty that likely affects the efficacy of monitoring surveys, highlighting the need of repeated sampling in both ecological studies and conservation management.

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Background: Thin melanomas (Breslow thickness <= 1 mm) are considered highly curable. The aim of this study was to evaluate the correlation between histological tumour regression and sentinel lymph node (SLN) involvement in thin melanomas. Patients and methods: This was a retrospective single-centre study of 34 patients with thin melanomas undergoing SLN biopsy between April 1998 and January 2005. Results: The study included 14 women and 20 men of mean age 56.3 years. Melanomas were located on the neck (n = 3), soles (n = 4), trunk (n = 13) and extremities (n = 14). Pathological examination showed 25 SSM, four acral lentiginous melanomas, three in situ melanomas, one nodular melanoma and one unclassified melanoma with a mean Breslow thickness of 0.57 mm. Histological tumour regression was observed in 26 over 34 cases and ulceration was found in one case. Clark levels were as follows: I (n = 3), II (n = 20), III (n = 9), IV (n = 2). Growth phase was available in 15 cases (seven radial and eight vertical). Mitotic rates, available in 24 cases, were: 0 (n = 9), 1 (n = 11), 2 (n = 2), 3 (n = 1), 6 (n = 1). One patient with histological tumour regression (2.9% of cases and 3.8% of cases with regressing tumours) had a metastatic SLN. One patient negative for SLN had a lung relapse and died of the disease. Mean follow-up was 26.2 months. Conclusion: The results of the present study and the analysis of the literature show that histological regression of the primary tumour does not seem predictive of higher risk of SLN involvement in thin melanomas. This suggests that screening for SLN is not indicated in thin melanomas, even those with histological regression.

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OBJECTIVE: To investigate the evolution of delirium of nursing home (NH) residents and their possible predictors. DESIGN: Post-hoc analysis of a prospective cohort assessment. SETTING: Ninety NHs in Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Included 14,771 NH residents. MEASUREMENTS: The Resident Assessment Instrument Minimum Data Set and the Nursing Home Confusion Assessment Method were used to determine follow-up of subsyndromal or full delirium in NH residents using discrete Markov chain modeling to describe long-term trajectories and multiple logistic regression analyses to determine predictors of the trajectories. RESULTS: We identified four major types of delirium time courses in NH. Increasing severity of cognitive impairment and of depressive symptoms at the initial assessment predicted the different delirium time courses. CONCLUSION: More pronounced cognitive impairment and depressive symptoms at the initial assessment are associated with different subsequent evolutions of delirium. The presence and evolution of delirium in the first year after NH admission predicted the subsequent course of delirium until death.

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OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of nonresponse to a self-report study of patients with orthopedic trauma hospitalized for vocational rehabilitation between November 15, 2003, and December 31, 2005. The role of biopsychosocial complexity, assessed using the INTERMED, was of particular interest. DESIGN: Cohort study. Questionnaires with quality of life, sociodemographic, and job-related questions were given to patients at hospitalization and 1 year after discharge. Sociodemographic data, biopsychosocial complexity, and presence of comorbidity were available at hospitalization (baseline) for all eligible patients. Logistic regression models were used to test a number of baseline variables as potential predictors of nonresponse to the questionnaires at each of the 2 time points. SETTING: Rehabilitation clinic. PARTICIPANTS: Patients (N=990) hospitalized for vocational rehabilitation over a period of 2 years. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Nonresponse to the questionnaires was the binary dependent variable. RESULTS: Patients with high biopsychosocial complexity, foreign native language, or low educational level were less likely to respond at both time points. Younger patients were less likely to respond at 1 year. Those living in a stable partnership were less likely than singles to respond at hospitalization. Sex, psychiatric, and somatic comorbidity and alcoholism were never associated with nonresponse. CONCLUSIONS: We stress the importance of assessing biopsychosocial complexity to predict nonresponse. Furthermore, the factors we found to be predictive of nonresponse are also known to influence treatment outcome and vocational rehabilitation. Therefore, it is important to increase the response rate of the groups of concern in order to reduce selection bias in epidemiologic investigations.

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The use of artificial nest-boxes has led to significant progress in bird conservation and in our understanding of the functional and evolutionary ecology of free-ranging birds that exploit cavities for roosting and reproduction. Nest-boxes and their improved accessibility have made it easier to perform comparative and experimental field investigations. However, concerns about the generality and applicability of scientific studies involving birds breeding in nest-boxes have been raised because the occupants of boxes may differ from conspecifics occupying other nest sites. Here we review the existing evidence demonstrating the importance of nest-box design to individual life-history traits in three falcon (Falconiformes) and seven owl (Strigiformes) species, as well as the extent to which publications on these birds describe the characteristics of exploited artificial nest-boxes in their 'methods' sections. More than 60% of recent publications did not provide any details on nest-box design (e.g. size, shape, material), despite several calls >15 years ago to increase the reporting of such information. We exemplify and discuss how variation in nest-box characteristics can affect or confound conclusions from nest-box studies and conclude that it is of overall importance to present details of nest-box characteristics in scientific publications.

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OBJECTIVE: Renal cytochrome P450 3A5 (CYP3A5) activity has been associated with blood pressure and salt sensitivity in humans. We determined whether CYP3A5 polymorphisms are associated with ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) and with glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in African families. METHODS: Using a cross-sectional design, 375 individuals from 72 families, each with at least two hypertensive siblings, were recruited through a hypertension register in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean). We analyzed the association between the CYP3A5 alleles (*1, *3, *6 and *7) and ABP, GFR and renal sodium handling (fractional excretion of lithium), from pedigree data, allowing for other covariates and familial correlations. RESULTS: CYP3A5*1 carriers increased their daytime systolic and diastolic ABP with age (0.55 and 0.23 mmHg/year) more than non-carriers (0.21 and 0.04 mmHg/year). CYP3A5*1 had a significant main effect on daytime systolic/diastolic ABP [regression coefficient (SE): -29.6 (10.0)/-8.2 (4.1) mmHg, P = 0.003/0.045, respectively] and this effect was modified by age (CYP3A5*1 x age interactions, P = 0.017/0.018). For night-time ABP, the effect of CYP3A5*1 was modified by urinary sodium excretion, not by age. For renal function, CYP3A5*1 carriers had a 7.6(3.8) ml/min lower GFR (P = 0.045) than non-carriers. Proximal sodium reabsorption decreased with age in non-carriers, but not in CYP3A5*1 carriers (P for interaction = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate that CYP3A5 polymorphisms are associated with ambulatory BP, CYP3A5*1 carriers showing a higher age- and sodium- related increase in ABP than non-carriers. The age effect may be due, in part, to the action of CYP3A5 on renal sodium handling.

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Chagas disease control strategies strongly depend on the triatomine vector species involved in Trypanosoma cruzi transmission within each area. Here we report the results of the identification of specimens belonging to various species of Triatominae captured in Ecuador (15 species from 17 provinces) and deposited in the entomological collections of the Catholic University of Ecuador (Quito), Instituto Oswaldo Cruz (Brazil), the Natural History Museum London (UK), the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (UK), the National Institute of Hygiene (Quito), and the Vozandes Hospital (Quito). A critical review of published information and new field records are presented. We analysed these data in relation to the life zones where triatomines occur (11 life zones, excluding those over 2,200 m altitude), and provide biogeographical maps for each species. These records are discussed in terms of epidemiological significance and design of control strategies. Findings relevant to the control of the main vector species are emphasised. Different lines of evidence suggest that Triatoma dimidiata is not native to Ecuador-Peru, and that synanthropic populations of Rhodnius ecuadoriensis in southern Ecuador-northern Peru might be isolated from their sylvatic conspecifics. Local eradication of T. dimidiata and these R. ecuadoriensis populations might therefore be attainable. However, the presence of a wide variety of native species indicates the necessity for a strong longitudinal surveillance system.

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BACKGROUND: Hypovitaminosis D is well known in different populations, but may be under diagnosed in certain populations. We aim to determine the first diagnosis considered, the duration and resolution of symptoms, and the predictors of response to treatment in female asylum seekers suffering from hypovitaminosis D. METHODS: Design: A pre- and post-intervention observational study. Setting: A network comprising an academic primary care centre and nurse practitioners. Participants: Consecutive records of 33 female asylum seekers with complaints compatible with osteomalacia and with hypovitaminosis D (serum 25-(OH) vitamin D < 21 nmol/l). Treatment intervention: The patients received either two doses of 300,000 IU intramuscular cholecalciferol as well as 800 IU of cholecalciferol with 1000 mg of calcium orally, or the oral treatment only. Main outcome measures: We recorded the first diagnosis made by the physicians before the correct diagnosis of hypovitaminosis D, the duration of symptoms before diagnosis, the responders and non-responders to treatment, the duration of symptoms after treatment, and the number of medical visits and analgesic drugs prescribed 6 months before and 6 months after diagnosis. Tests: Two-sample t-tests, chi-squared tests, and logistic regression analyses were performed. Analyses were performed using SPSS 10.0. RESULTS: Prior to the discovery of hypovitaminosis D, diagnoses related to somatisation were evoked in 30 patients (90.9%). The mean duration of symptoms before diagnosis was 2.53 years (SD 3.20). Twenty-two patients (66.7%) responded completely to treatment; the remaining patients were considered to be non-responders. After treatment was initiated, the responders' symptoms disappeared completely after 2.84 months. The mean number of emergency medical visits fell from 0.88 (SD 1.08) six months before diagnosis to 0.39 (SD 0.83) after (P = 0.027). The mean number of analgesic drugs that were prescribed also decreased from 1.67 (SD 1.5) to 0.85 (SD 1) (P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Hypovitaminosis D in female asylum seekers may remain undiagnosed, with a prolonged duration of chronic symptoms. The potential pitfall is a diagnosis of somatisation. Treatment leads to a rapid resolution of symptoms, a reduction in the use of medical services, and the prescription of analgesic drugs in this vulnerable population.

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OBJECTIVE: To determine whether, during hemorrhagic shock, the effect of epinephrine on energy metabolism could be deleterious, by enhancing the oxygen requirement at a given level of oxygen delivery (DO2). DESIGN: Prospective, randomized, control trial. SETTING: Experimental laboratory. SUBJECTS: Two groups of seven mongrel dogs were studied. The epinephrine group received a continuous infusion of epinephrine (1 microgram/min/kg) while the control group received saline. INTERVENTION: Dogs were anesthetized with pentobarbital, and shock was produced by stepwise hemorrhage. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Oxygen consumption (VO2) was continuously measured by the gas exchange technique, while DO2 was independently calculated from cardiac output (measured by thermodilution) and blood oxygen content. A dual-lines regression fit was applied to the DO2 vs. VO2 plot. The intersection of the two regression lines defined the critical value of DO2. Values above critical DO2 belonged to phase 1, while phase 2 occurred below critical DO2. In the control group, VO2 was independent of DO2 during phase 1; VO2 was dependent on DO2 during phase 2. In the epinephrine group, the expected increase in VO2 (+19%) and DO2 (+50%) occurred under normovolemic conditions. During hemorrhage, VO2 immediately decreased, and the slope of phase 1 was significantly (p < .01) different from zero, and was significantly (p < .05) steeper than in the control group (0.025 +/- 0.005 vs. 0.005 +/- 0.010). However, the critical DO2 (8.7 +/- 1.7 vs. 9.7 +/- 2.4 mL/min/kg), the critical VO2 (5.6 +/- 0.5 vs. 5.5 +/- 0.9 mL/min/kg), and the slope of phase 2 (0.487 +/- 0.080 vs. 0.441 +/- 0.130) were not different from control values. CONCLUSIONS: The administration of pharmacologic doses of epinephrine significantly increased VO2 under normovolemic conditions due to the epinephrine-induced thermogenic effect. This effect progressively decreased during hemorrhage. The critical DO2 and the relationship between DO2 and VO2 in the supply-dependent phase of shock were unaffected by epinephrine infusion. These results suggest that during hemorrhagic shock, epinephrine administration did not exert a detrimental effect on the relationship between DO2 and VO2.

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Casework expercience has shown that, in some cases, long exposures of surfaces subjected to cyanoacrylate (CA) fuming had detrimental effects on the subsequent application of Bluestar. This study aimed to develop a control mechanism to monitor the amount of CA deposited prior to the subsequent treatment. A control slide bearing spots of sodium hydroxide (NaOH) of known concentrations and volume was designed and validated against both scanning electron microscopy (SEM) observations and latent print examiners' assessments of the quality of the developed marks. The control slide allows one to define three levels of development that were used to monitor the Bluestar reaction on depleting footwear marks left in diluted blood. The appropriate conditions for a successful application of both CA and Bluestar were determined.

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Time-expanded echolocation calls were recorded from 29 species of Neotropical bats in lowland moist tropical forest in Trinidad, West Indies with three aims (I) to describe the echolocation calls of the members of a diverse Neotropical bat community, especially members of the family Phyllostomidae, whose calls are not well documented (2) to investigate whether multivariate analysis of calls allows species and foraging guilds to be identified and (3) to evaluate the use of bat detectors in surveying the phyllostomids of Neotropical forests. The calls of 12 species of the family Phyllostomidae are described here for the first time and a total of 29 species, belonging to five families (Emballonuridae, Mormoopidae, Phyllostomidae, Molossidae and Vespertilionidae) were recorded Quadratic discriminant function analysis (DFA) was used to obtain classification rates for each one of 11 individual species and for six guilds (based on diet, foraging mode and habitat) comprising 26 species Overall classification rates were low compared to similar studies conducted in the Palaeotropics We suggest that this may be due to a combination of ecological plasticity for certain species and a loose relationship between echolocation call shape, fine-grained resource partitioning and resource acquisition in phyllostomids

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Most of the Brazilian HIV-1 samples have been characterized based on the structural genes (env, gag and pol) and no data concerning the variability of the accessory genes such as nef have been available so far. Considering the role of the nef on virus biology and the inclusion of this region in some HIV/AIDS vaccine products under testing, the purpose of this study was to document the genetic diversity of the nef gene in third-four HIV-1 Brazilian samples previously subtyped based on the env C2-V3 region. Although only few non-subtype B samples have already been analyzed so far, the cytotoxic Tlymphocyte epitopes encoded in this region were relatively conserved among the subtypes, with some amino acid signatures mainly in the subtype C samples. Considering the increasing of the non-B HIV-1 subtypes worldwide, in special the subtype C, more data should be generated concerning the genetic and antigenic variability of these subtypes, as well as the study of the impact of such polymorphism in HIV/AIDS vaccine design and testing.

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Given the urgence of a new paradigm in wireless digital trasmission which should allow for higher bit rate, lower latency and tigher delay constaints, it has been proposed to investigate the fundamental building blocks that at the circuital/device level, will boost the change towards a more efficient network architecture, with high capacity, higher bandwidth and a more satisfactory end user experience. At the core of each transciever, there are inherently analog devices capable of providing the carrier signal, the oscillators. It is strongly believed that many limitations in today's communication protocols, could be relieved by permitting high carrier frequency radio transmission, and having some degree of reconfigurability. This led us to studying distributed oscillator architectures which work in the microwave range and possess wideband tuning capability. As microvave oscillators are essentially nonlinear devices, a full nonlinear analyis, synthesis, and optimization had to be considered for their implementation. Consequently, all the most used nonlinear numerical techniques in commercial EDA software had been reviewed. An application of all the aforementioned techniques has been shown, considering a systems of three coupled oscillator ("triple push" oscillator) in which the stability of the various oscillating modes has been studied. Provided that a certain phase distribution is maintained among the oscillating elements, this topology permits a rise in the output power of the third harmonic; nevertheless due to circuit simmetry, "unwanted" oscillating modes coexist with the intenteded one. Starting with the necessary background on distributed amplification and distributed oscillator theory, the design of a four stage reverse mode distributed voltage controlled oscillator (DVCO) using lumped elments has been presented. All the design steps have been reported and for the first time a method for an optimized design with reduced variations in the output power has been presented. Ongoing work is devoted to model a wideband DVCO and to implement a frequency divider.

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While mobile technologies can provide great personalized services for mobile users, they also threaten their privacy. Such personalization-privacy paradox are particularly salient for context aware technology based mobile applications where user's behaviors, movement and habits can be associated with a consumer's personal identity. In this thesis, I studied the privacy issues in the mobile context, particularly focus on an adaptive privacy management system design for context-aware mobile devices, and explore the role of personalization and control over user's personal data. This allowed me to make multiple contributions, both theoretical and practical. In the theoretical world, I propose and prototype an adaptive Single-Sign On solution that use user's context information to protect user's private information for smartphone. To validate this solution, I first proved that user's context is a unique user identifier and context awareness technology can increase user's perceived ease of use of the system and service provider's authentication security. I then followed a design science research paradigm and implemented this solution into a mobile application called "Privacy Manager". I evaluated the utility by several focus group interviews, and overall the proposed solution fulfilled the expected function and users expressed their intentions to use this application. To better understand the personalization-privacy paradox, I built on the theoretical foundations of privacy calculus and technology acceptance model to conceptualize the theory of users' mobile privacy management. I also examined the role of personalization and control ability on my model and how these two elements interact with privacy calculus and mobile technology model. In the practical realm, this thesis contributes to the understanding of the tradeoff between the benefit of personalized services and user's privacy concerns it may cause. By pointing out new opportunities to rethink how user's context information can protect private data, it also suggests new elements for privacy related business models.

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