Modélisation de la régénération de l’épinette noire suite au passage d’un feu en forêt boréale fermée

Face à l’augmentation observée des accidents de régénération en forêt boréale et leur impact sur la productivité et la résilience des peuplements denses d’épinette noire, une meilleure compréhension des mécanismes de résilience et une surveillance des risques d’accident de régénération sont nécessaires. L’objectif principal de cette étude visait donc le développement de modèles prédictifs et spatialement explicites de la régénération de l’épinette noire. Plus particulièrement, deux modèles ont été développés soit (1) un modèle théorique, développé à l’aide de données in situ et de données spatiales et (2) un modèle cartographique, utilisant uniquement des données spatiales accessibles telles que les inventaires forestiers provinciaux et l’indice spectral de sévérité des feux « differenced Normalized Burn Ratio » (dNBR). Les résultats obtenus ont permis de constater que la succession rapprochée (< 55 ans) d’une coupe et d’un feu n’entraîne pas automatiquement une ouverture des peuplements d’épinette noire. Tout d’abord, les peuplements affectés par la coupe de récupération de brûlis (1963), immatures lors du feu de 2005, sont caractérisés par une faible régénération. En contrepartie, la régénération à la suite du feu de 2005, observé dans les peuplements coupés entre 1948 et 1967, est similaire à celle observée dans les peuplements non perturbés dans les 60 années précédant le feu. Le modèle théorique sélectionné à l’aide des critères d’information d’Akaike a, quant à lui, permis d'identifier trois variables déterminantes dans le succès ou l’échec de la régénération de l’épinette noire soit (1) la végétation potentielle, (2) le pourcentage de recouvrement du sol par les sphaignes et (3) la sévérité du feu évaluée à l’aide du dNBR. Des validations bootstrap et croisée ont permis de mettre en évidence qu’un modèle utilisant ces trois variables explique 59 % de la variabilité de la régénération observée dans le territoire d’étude., Quant à lui, le modèle cartographique qui utilise uniquement les variables végétation potentielle et dNBR explique 32 % de la variabilité. Finalement ce modèle a permis la création d’une carte de risque d’accident de régénération. Basée sur la précision du modèle, cette carte offre un potentiel intéressant afin de cibler les secteurs les plus à risque et ainsi appuyer les décisions relatives aux reboisements dans les zones incendiées.

Rotina computacional de obtenção, tratamento e visualização de dados oceanográficos

Atualmente, sensores remotos e computadores de alto desempenho estão sendo utilizados como instrumentos principais na coleta e produção de dados oceanográficos. De posse destes dados, é possível realizar estudos que permitem simular e prever o comportamento do oceano por meio de modelos numéricos regionais. Dentre os fatores importantes no estudo da oceanografia, podem ser destacados àqueles referentes aos impactos ambientais, de contaminação antrópica, utilização de energias renováveis, operações portuárias e etc. Contudo, devido ao grande volume de dados gerados por instituições ambientais, na forma de resultados de modelos globais como o HYCOM (Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model) e dos programas de Reanalysis da NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), torna-se necessária a criação de rotinas computacionais para realizar o tratamento de condições iniciais e de contorno, de modo que possam ser aplicadas a modelos regionais como o TELEMAC3D (www.opentelemac.org). Problemas relacionados a baixa resolução, ausência de dados e a necessidade de interpolação para diferentes malhas ou sistemas de coordenadas verticais, tornam necessária a criação de um mecanismo computacional que realize este tratamento adequadamente. Com isto, foram desenvolvidas rotinas na linguagem de programação Python, empregando interpoladores de vizinho mais próximo, de modo que, a partir de dados brutos dos modelos HYCOM e do programa de Reanalysis da NOAA, foram preparadas condições iniciais e de contorno para a realização de uma simulação numérica teste. Estes resultados foram confrontados com outro resultado numérico onde, as condições foram construídas a partir de um método de interpolação mais sofisticado, escrita em outra linguagem, e que já vem sendo utilizada no laboratório. A análise dos resultados permitiu concluir que, a rotina desenvolvida no âmbito deste trabalho, funciona adequadamente para a geração de condições iniciais e de contorno do modelo TELEMAC3D. Entretanto, um interpolador mais sofisticado deve ser desenvolvido de forma a aumentar a qualidade nas interpolações, otimizar o custo computacional, e produzir condições que sejam mais realísticas para a utilização do modelo TELEMAC3D.

Forecasting exchange rates in the presence of instabilities

Many exchange rate papers articulate the view that instabilities constitute a major impediment to exchange rate predictability. In this thesis we implement Bayesian and other techniques to account for such instabilities, and examine some of the main obstacles to exchange rate models' predictive ability. We first consider in Chapter 2 a time-varying parameter model in which fluctuations in exchange rates are related to short-term nominal interest rates ensuing from monetary policy rules, such as Taylor rules. Unlike the existing exchange rate studies, the parameters of our Taylor rules are allowed to change over time, in light of the widespread evidence of shifts in fundamentals - for example in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Focusing on quarterly data frequency from the crisis, we detect forecast improvements upon a random walk (RW) benchmark for at least half, and for as many as seven out of 10, of the currencies considered. Results are stronger when we allow the time-varying parameters of the Taylor rules to differ between countries. In Chapter 3 we look closely at the role of time-variation in parameters and other sources of uncertainty in hindering exchange rate models' predictive power. We apply a Bayesian setup that incorporates the notion that the relevant set of exchange rate determinants and their corresponding coefficients, change over time. Using statistical and economic measures of performance, we first find that predictive models which allow for sudden, rather than smooth, changes in the coefficients yield significant forecast improvements and economic gains at horizons beyond 1-month. At shorter horizons, however, our methods fail to forecast better than the RW. And we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients variability to incorporate in the models, as the main factors obstructing predictive ability. Chapter 4 focus on the problem of the time-varying predictive ability of economic fundamentals for exchange rates. It uses bootstrap-based methods to uncover the time-specific conditioning information for predicting fluctuations in exchange rates. Employing several metrics for statistical and economic evaluation of forecasting performance, we find that our approach based on pre-selecting and validating fundamentals across bootstrap replications generates more accurate forecasts than the RW. The approach, known as bumping, robustly reveals parsimonious models with out-of-sample predictive power at 1-month horizon; and outperforms alternative methods, including Bayesian, bagging, and standard forecast combinations. Chapter 5 exploits the predictive content of daily commodity prices for monthly commodity-currency exchange rates. It builds on the idea that the effect of daily commodity price fluctuations on commodity currencies is short-lived, and therefore harder to pin down at low frequencies. Using MIxed DAta Sampling (MIDAS) models, and Bayesian estimation methods to account for time-variation in predictive ability, the chapter demonstrates the usefulness of suitably exploiting such short-lived effects in improving exchange rate forecasts. It further shows that the usual low-frequency predictors, such as money supplies and interest rates differentials, typically receive little support from the data at monthly frequency, whereas MIDAS models featuring daily commodity prices are highly likely. The chapter also introduces the random walk Metropolis-Hastings technique as a new tool to estimate MIDAS regressions.

A distributed, compact routing protocol for the Internet

The Internet has grown in size at rapid rates since BGP records began, and continues to do so. This has raised concerns about the scalability of the current BGP routing system, as the routing state at each router in a shortest-path routing protocol will grow at a supra-linearly rate as the network grows. The concerns are that the memory capacity of routers will not be able to keep up with demands, and that the growth of the Internet will become ever more cramped as more and more of the world seeks the benefits of being connected. Compact routing schemes, where the routing state grows only sub-linearly relative to the growth of the network, could solve this problem and ensure that router memory would not be a bottleneck to Internet growth. These schemes trade away shortest-path routing for scalable memory state, by allowing some paths to have a certain amount of bounded “stretch”. The most promising such scheme is Cowen Routing, which can provide scalable, compact routing state for Internet routing, while still providing shortest-path routing to nearly all other nodes, with only slightly stretched paths to a very small subset of the network. Currently, there is no fully distributed form of Cowen Routing that would be practical for the Internet. This dissertation describes a fully distributed and compact protocol for Cowen routing, using the k-core graph decomposition. Previous compact routing work showed the k-core graph decomposition is useful for Cowen Routing on the Internet, but no distributed form existed. This dissertation gives a distributed k-core algorithm optimised to be efficient on dynamic graphs, along with with proofs of its correctness. The performance and efficiency of this distributed k-core algorithm is evaluated on large, Internet AS graphs, with excellent results. This dissertation then goes on to describe a fully distributed and compact Cowen Routing protocol. This protocol being comprised of a landmark selection process for Cowen Routing using the k-core algorithm, with mechanisms to ensure compact state at all times, including at bootstrap; a local cluster routing process, with mechanisms for policy application and control of cluster sizes, ensuring again that state can remain compact at all times; and a landmark routing process is described with a prioritisation mechanism for announcements that ensures compact state at all times.

On the fly type specialization without type analysis

Les langages de programmation typés dynamiquement tels que JavaScript et Python repoussent la vérification de typage jusqu’au moment de l’exécution. Afin d’optimiser la performance de ces langages, les implémentations de machines virtuelles pour langages dynamiques doivent tenter d’éliminer les tests de typage dynamiques redondants. Cela se fait habituellement en utilisant une analyse d’inférence de types. Cependant, les analyses de ce genre sont souvent coûteuses et impliquent des compromis entre le temps de compilation et la précision des résultats obtenus. Ceci a conduit à la conception d’architectures de VM de plus en plus complexes. Nous proposons le versionnement paresseux de blocs de base, une technique de compilation à la volée simple qui élimine efficacement les tests de typage dynamiques redondants sur les chemins d’exécution critiques. Cette nouvelle approche génère paresseusement des versions spécialisées des blocs de base tout en propageant de l’information de typage contextualisée. Notre technique ne nécessite pas l’utilisation d’analyses de programme coûteuses, n’est pas contrainte par les limitations de précision des analyses d’inférence de types traditionnelles et évite la complexité des techniques d’optimisation spéculatives. Trois extensions sont apportées au versionnement de blocs de base afin de lui donner des capacités d’optimisation interprocédurale. Une première extension lui donne la possibilité de joindre des informations de typage aux propriétés des objets et aux variables globales. Puis, la spécialisation de points d’entrée lui permet de passer de l’information de typage des fonctions appellantes aux fonctions appellées. Finalement, la spécialisation des continuations d’appels permet de transmettre le type des valeurs de retour des fonctions appellées aux appellants sans coût dynamique. Nous démontrons empiriquement que ces extensions permettent au versionnement de blocs de base d’éliminer plus de tests de typage dynamiques que toute analyse d’inférence de typage statique.

Raspberry Pi-pohjainen dataloggeri

Dataloggerit ovat tärkeitä mittaustekniikassa käytettäviä mittalaitteita, joiden tarkoituksena on kerätä talteen mittausdataa pitkiltä aikaväleiltä. Dataloggereita voidaan käyttää esimerkiksi teollista prosessia osana olevien toimilaitteiden tai kotitalouden energiajärjestelmän seurannassa. Teollisen luokan dataloggerit ovat yleensä hinnaltaan satojen tai tuhansien eurojen luokkaa. Työssä pyrittiin löytämään teollisen luokan laitteille halpa ja helppokäyttöinen vaihtoehto, joka on kuitenkin riittävän tehokas ja toimiva. Työssä suunniteltiin ja toteutettiin dataloggeri Raspberry Pi-alustalle ja testattiin sitä oikeaa teollista ympäristöä vastaavissa olosuhteissa. Kirjallisuudesta ja internet artikkeleista etsittiin samankaltaisia laite- ja ohjelmistoratkaisuja ja niitä käytettiin dataloggausjärjestelmän pohjana. Raspberry Pi-alustalle koodattiin yksinkertainen Python-kielinen data-loggausohjelma, joka käyttää Modbus-tiedonsiirtoprotokollaa. Testien perusteella voidaan todeta, että toteutettu dataloggeri on toimiva ja kykenee kaupallisten dataloggereiden tasoiseen mittaukseen ainakin pienillä näytteistystaajuuksilla. Toteutettu dataloggeri on myös huomattavasti kaupallisia dataloggereita halvempi. Helppokäyttöisyyden näkökulmasta dataloggerissa havaittiin puutteita, joita käydään läpi jatkokehitysideoiden muodossa.

Arrastrar y Soltar

Drag & Drop es una aplicación web diseñada para la creación de problemas a partir de piezas, en la que al profesor se le plantea una nueva posibilidad de evaluar a sus alumnos. La aplicación web servirá como un entorno dedicado a la elaboración de preguntas y respuestas. Para responder a dichas preguntas, se proporcionan unos elementos llamados “piezas” al alumno que se encargará de utilizar para construir su respuesta. A su vez, el profesor al elaborar la pregunta establecerá la solución ideal del problema y el conjunto de “piezas” que los alumnos podrán utilizar para crear las suyas propias. El alumno al terminar la solución de un problema, la enviará al servidor. Este se encargará de evaluarla y comparar la solución del alumno con la solución ideal propuesta por el profesor.Finalmente el profesor será el encargado de examinar el ejercicio y ajustar la calificación, ya sea aceptando la que propone el sistema o indicando una propia.

Fatores críticos de sucesso como antecedentes da aceitação de um sistema de informação em uma universidade federal

In recent decades the public sector comes under pressure in order to improve its performance. The use of Information Technology (IT) has been a tool increasingly used in reaching that goal. Thus, it has become an important issue in public organizations, particularly in institutions of higher education, determine which factors influence the acceptance and use of technology, impacting on the success of its implementation and the desired organizational results. The Technology Acceptance Model - TAM was used as the basis for this study and is based on the constructs perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use. However, when it comes to integrated management systems due to the complexity of its implementation,organizational factors were added to thus seek further explanation of the acceptance of such systems. Thus, added to the model five TAM constructs related to critical success factors in implementing ERP systems, they are: support of top management, communication, training, cooperation, and technological complexity (BUENO and SALMERON, 2008). Based on the foregoing, launches the following research problem: What factors influence the acceptance and use of SIE / module academic at the Federal University of Para, from the users' perception of teachers and technicians? The purpose of this study was to identify the influence of organizational factors, and behavioral antecedents of behavioral intention to use the SIE / module academic UFPA in the perspective of teachers and technical users. This is applied research, exploratory and descriptive, quantitative with the implementation of a survey, and data collection occurred through a structured questionnaire applied to a sample of 229 teachers and 30 technical and administrative staff. Data analysis was carried out through descriptive statistics and structural equation modeling with the technique of partial least squares (PLS). Effected primarily to assess the measurement model, which were verified reliability, convergent and discriminant validity for all indicators and constructs. Then the structural model was analyzed using the bootstrap resampling technique like. In assessing statistical significance, all hypotheses were supported. The coefficient of determination (R ²) was high or average in five of the six endogenous variables, so the model explains 47.3% of the variation in behavioral intention. It is noteworthy that among the antecedents of behavioral intention (BI) analyzed in this study, perceived usefulness is the variable that has a greater effect on behavioral intention, followed by ease of use (PEU) and attitude (AT). Among the organizational aspects (critical success factors) studied technological complexity (TC) and training (ERT) were those with greatest effect on behavioral intention to use, although these effects were lower than those produced by behavioral factors (originating from TAM). It is pointed out further that the support of senior management (TMS) showed, among all variables, the least effect on the intention to use (BI) and was followed by communications (COM) and cooperation (CO), which exert a low effect on behavioral intention (BI). Therefore, as other studies on the TAM constructs were adequate for the present research. Thus, the study contributed towards proving evidence that the Technology Acceptance Model can be applied to predict the acceptance of integrated management systems, even in public. Keywords: Technology

Non-Perturbative Methods in Quantum Field Theory and Quantum Gravity

This thesis considers non-perturbative methods in quantum field theory with applications to gravity and cosmology. In particular, there are chapters on black hole holography, inflationary model building, and the conformal bootstrap.

Estudo comparativo de métodos de regionalização hidrológica e desenvolvimento de um aplicativo para o gerenciamento de outorga de águas superficiais

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Geociências, 2016.

Dinoflagellate Genomic Organization and Phylogenetic Marker Discovery Utilizing Deep Sequencing Data

Dinoflagellates possess large genomes in which most genes are present in many copies. This has made studies of their genomic organization and phylogenetics challenging. Recent advances in sequencing technology have made deep sequencing of dinoflagellate transcriptomes feasible. This dissertation investigates the genomic organization of dinoflagellates to better understand the challenges of assembling dinoflagellate transcriptomic and genomic data from short read sequencing methods, and develops new techniques that utilize deep sequencing data to identify orthologous genes across a diverse set of taxa. To better understand the genomic organization of dinoflagellates, a genomic cosmid clone of the tandemly repeated gene Alchohol Dehydrogenase (AHD) was sequenced and analyzed. The organization of this clone was found to be counter to prevailing hypotheses of genomic organization in dinoflagellates. Further, a new non-canonical splicing motif was described that could greatly improve the automated modeling and annotation of genomic data. A custom phylogenetic marker discovery pipeline, incorporating methods that leverage the statistical power of large data sets was written. A case study on Stramenopiles was undertaken to test the utility in resolving relationships between known groups as well as the phylogenetic affinity of seven unknown taxa. The pipeline generated a set of 373 genes useful as phylogenetic markers that successfully resolved relationships among the major groups of Stramenopiles, and placed all unknown taxa on the tree with strong bootstrap support. This pipeline was then used to discover 668 genes useful as phylogenetic markers in dinoflagellates. Phylogenetic analysis of 58 dinoflagellates, using this set of markers, produced a phylogeny with good support of all branches. The Suessiales were found to be sister to the Peridinales. The Prorocentrales formed a monophyletic group with the Dinophysiales that was sister to the Gonyaulacales. The Gymnodinales was found to be paraphyletic, forming three monophyletic groups. While this pipeline was used to find phylogenetic markers, it will likely also be useful for finding orthologs of interest for other purposes, for the discovery of horizontally transferred genes, and for the separation of sequences in metagenomic data sets.

Redes de influencias y líderes de opinión en las redes sociales

Este Trabajo de Fin de Grado (TFG) se engloba en la línea general Social CRM. Concretamente, está vinculado a un trabajo de investigación llamado “Knowledge discovery in social networks by using a logic-based treatment of implications” desarrollado por P. Cordero, M. Enciso, A. Mora, M. Ojeda-Aciego y C. Rossi en la Universidad de Málaga, en el cual se ofrecen nuevas soluciones para la identificación de influencias de los usuarios en las redes sociales mediante herramientas como el Analisis de Conceptos Formales (FCA). El TFG tiene como objetivo el desarrollo de una aplicación que permita al usuario crear una configuración minimal de usuarios en Twitter a los que seguir para conocer información sobre un número determinado de temas. Para ello, obtendremos información sobre dichos temas mediante la API REST pública que proporciona Twitter y procesaremos los datos mediante algoritmos basados en el Análisis de Conceptos Formales (FCA). Posteriormente, la interpretación de los resultados de dicho análisis nos proporcionará información útil sobre lo expuesto al principio. Así, el trabajo se ha dividido en tres partes fundamentales: 1. Obtención de información (fuentes) 2. Procesamiento de los datos 3. Análisis de resultados El sistema se ha implementado como una aplicación web Java EE 7, utilizando JSF para las interfaces. Para el desarrollo web se han utilizado tecnologías y frameworks como Javascript, JQuery, CSS3, Bootstrap, Twitter4J, etc. Además, se ha seguido una metodología incremental para el desarrollo del proyecto y se ha usado UML como herramienta de modelado. Este proyecto se presenta como un trabajo inicial en el que se expondrán, además del sistema implementado, diversos problemas reales y ejemplos que prueben su funcionamiento y muestren la utilidad práctica del mismo

Portveb.com : um site para programadores e webdesigners

As exigências da sociedade atual obrigam a mudanças tecnológicas cada vez mais rápidas e constantes para satisfazer as necessidades empresariais, especialmente no que concerne à transmissão de informações de forma cada vez mais rápidas, mas sempre mantendo um elevado padrão de qualidade de conteúdos, bem como níveis de segurança elevados para impedir que os mesmos sejam corrompidos. Desde o aparecimento da Internet que a informação circula de forma cada vez mais veloz, em maiores quantidades e alcança cada vez mais pessoas. No entanto, nem todas as pessoas têm acesso a conteúdos de qualidade, sendo nesse ponto que o desenvolvimento do presente trabalho terá importância na respectiva área. O portveb.com é um website que pretende colmatar uma carência de conteúdos de qualidade para especialistas web designers, programadores e optimizadores de motores de busca. A importância do trabalho desenvolvido deve-se à escassez de websites da referida temática, sendo uma oportunidade para explorar a utilização de soluções técnicas como o Bootstrap, HTML, CSS, Javacript, PHP, MYSQL e desenvolver um website cuja funcionalidade não esteja só restrita a computadores pessoais, mas também a plataformas móveis. O desenvolvimento do website portveb.com demonstrou que a utilização das soluções técnicas já referidas foram a melhor opção do que concerne à obtenção de resultados, por assentar em plataformas onde não foi necessário elaborar um design de raíz, sendo que a interacção com bases de dados como PHP e MySQL tornaram o website mais dinâmico. A realização deste trabalho possibilitou ainda a descoberta de potencialidades do website para soluções técnicas futuras que se destinam a aumentar a partilha de conhecimento entre os utilizadores de forma mais prática e eficiente.

Drag & drop

Drag & Drop es una aplicación web diseñada para la creación de problemas a partir de piezas, en la que al profesor se le plantea una nueva posibilidad de evaluar a sus alumnos. La aplicación web servirá como un entorno dedicado a la elaboración de preguntas y respuestas. Para responder a dichas preguntas, se proporcionan unos elementos llamados “piezas” al alumno que se encargará de utilizar para construir su respuesta. A su vez, el profesor al elaborar la pregunta establecerá la solución ideal del problema y el conjunto de “piezas” que los alumnos podrán utilizar para crear las suyas propias. El alumno al terminar la solución de un problema, la enviará al servidor. Este se encargará de evaluarla y comparar la solución del alumno con la solución ideal propuesta por el profesor. Finalmente el profesor será el encargado de examinar el ejercicio y ajustar la calificación, ya sea aceptando la que propone el sistema o indicando una propia.

Diseño e implementación de un sistema de detección de malezas en cultivos Cundiboyacenses

74 p.