Perfil dos Turistas que Visitam a Ilha de São Vicente

O presente trabalho tem por objectivo definir o perfil do turista que visitou a ilha de São Vicente e avaliar o grau de satisfação do turista enquanto consumidor de diferentes bens e serviços, nos meses de Maio e Junho do decorrente ano. Para se fazer uma abordagem qualitativa falou-se da problemática do mercado turístico - procura e oferta turística – e a importância da segmentação desse sistema turístico juntamente com algumas teorias do comportamento do consumidor. Por sua vez, para o estudo do perfil e satisfação dos turistas utilizou-se uma abordagem quantitativa, através da aplicação de questionários no Aeroporto Internacional Cesária Évora e entrevistas aos estabelecimentos hoteleiros, 150 e 7 respectivamente. Após a análise explicativa, com base na bibliografia seleccionada, nas entrevistas e questionários realizados, os resultados da pesquisa indicam que estudar o perfil e a satisfação dos turistas permite fazer um levantamento de diversas variáveis importantes como, por exemplo, a nacionalidade do turista, a principal razão e objectivo da viagem e o que gostaram, ou desejavam ver no destino. E assim, entender-se o perfil do visitante e propor-se estratégias, que contribuam para um planeamento sustentável do desenvolvimento turístico na região pretendida. A complexidade do processo de decisão do turista por um ou outro destino é que verdadeiramente motiva esta pesquisa. The objective of the following work is to define the profile of a tourist that visited São Vicente, and evaluate the levels of satisfaction of the tourist as a consumer of different items and services, on May and June of the current year. For a quality methodological approach, the problematic of the touristic industry (demand and touristic offer) – the essential of subdivision of these touristic systems alongside with the principles of the consumer behavior were discussed. In continuity, to define the profile and satisfaction of the tourists, a quantity approach was also used, through the application of questionnaires at the International Airport Cesária Évora and interviews throughout hotel establishments, 150 and 7 respectively. After an explanatory analyses, based on a selected bibliography, the applied interviews and questionnaires, the outcome of this research shows that by studying the profile and the satisfaction of the tourists allows to have variable important results, for example, the tourist´s nationality, the main reason and objective of the trip and what they enjoyed or would like to see on their destination. Thus, understanding the visitor´s profile and suggesting strategies, that contributes for a sustainable planning of a touristic development on the intended region. The process complexity of the decision making of the tourist for one destination is truly the main motivation for this research.

Variable Kernel estimates: On the impossibility of tuning the parameters

For the standard kernel density estimate, it is known that one can tune the bandwidth such that the expected L1 error is within a constant factor of the optimal L1 error (obtained when one is allowed to choose the bandwidth with knowledge of the density). In this paper, we pose the same problem for variable bandwidth kernel estimates where the bandwidths are allowed to depend upon the location. We show in particular that for positive kernels on the real line, for any data-based bandwidth, there exists a densityfor which the ratio of expected L1 error over optimal L1 error tends to infinity. Thus, the problem of tuning the variable bandwidth in an optimal manner is ``too hard''. Moreover, from the class of counterexamples exhibited in the paper, it appears thatplacing conditions on the densities (monotonicity, convexity, smoothness) does not help.

Introducing systematic dispatcher-assisted cardiopulmonary resuscitation (telephone-CPR) in a non-Advanced Medical Priority Dispatch System (AMPDS): implementation process and costs.

OBJECTIVE: In order to improve the quality of our Emergency Medical Services (EMS), to raise bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation rates and thereby meet what is becoming a universal standard in terms of quality of emergency services, we decided to implement systematic dispatcher-assisted or telephone-CPR (T-CPR) in our medical dispatch center, a non-Advanced Medical Priority Dispatch System. The aim of this article is to describe the implementation process, costs and results following the introduction of this new "quality" procedure. METHODS: This was a prospective study. Over an 8-week period, our EMS dispatchers were given new procedures to provide T-CPR. We then collected data on all non-traumatic cardiac arrests within our state (Vaud, Switzerland) for the following 12months. For each event, the dispatchers had to record in writing the reason they either ruled out cardiac arrest (CA) or did not propose T-CPR in the event they did suspect CA. All emergency call recordings were reviewed by the medical director of the EMS. The analysis of the recordings and the dispatchers' written explanations were then compared. RESULTS: During the 12-month study period, a total of 497 patients (both adults and children) were identified as having a non-traumatic cardiac arrest. Out of this total, 203 cases were excluded and 294 cases were eligible for T-CPR. Out of these eligible cases, dispatchers proposed T-CPR on 202 occasions (or 69% of eligible cases). They also erroneously proposed T-CPR on 17 occasions when a CA was wrongly identified (false positive). This represents 7.8% of all T-CPR. No costs were incurred to implement our study protocol and procedures. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates it is possible, using a brief campaign of sensitization but without any specific training, to implement systematic dispatcher-assisted cardiopulmonary resuscitation in a non-Advanced Medical Priority Dispatch System such as our EMS that had no prior experience with systematic T-CPR. The results in terms of T-CPR delivery rate and false positive are similar to those found in previous studies. We found our results satisfying the given short time frame of this study. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to improve the quality of emergency services at moderate or even no additional costs and this should be of interest to all EMS that do not presently benefit from using T-CPR procedures. EMS that currently do not offer T-CPR should consider implementing this technique as soon as possible, and we expect our experience may provide answers to those planning to incorporate T-CPR in their daily practice.

PyRate: a new program to estimate speciation and extinction rates from incomplete fossil data

Despite the advancement of phylogenetic methods to estimate speciation and extinction rates, their power can be limited under variable rates, in particular for clades with high extinction rates and small number of extant species. Fossil data can provide a powerful alternative source of information to investigate diversification processes. Here, we present PyRate, a computer program to estimate speciation and extinction rates and their temporal dynamics from fossil occurrence data. The rates are inferred in a Bayesian framework and are comparable to those estimated from phylogenetic trees. We describe how PyRate can be used to explore different models of diversification. In addition to the diversification rates, it provides estimates of the parameters of the preservation process (fossilization and sampling) and the times of speciation and extinction of each species in the data set. Moreover, we develop a new birth-death model to correlate the variation of speciation/extinction rates with changes of a continuous trait. Finally, we demonstrate the use of Bayes factors for model selection and show how the posterior estimates of a PyRate analysis can be used to generate calibration densities for Bayesian molecular clock analysis. PyRate is an open-source command-line Python program available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/pyrate/.

The role of institutions in the contractual process

Human beings increase their productivity by specializingtheir resources and exchanging their products. Theorganization of exchange is costly, however, becausespecialized activities need coordination and incentiveshave to be aligned. This work first describes how theseexchanges are organized in an institutional environment.It then focuses on the dual effect of this environment-as with any other specialized resource, institutions maybe used for expropriation purposes. They enjoyspecialization advantages in safeguarding exchange butthey also make possible new forms of opportunism,causing new costs of exchange. Three perverse tendenciesare identified:In the legal field, there is a surplus ofmandatory rules and, at the same time, a deficit in default rules. Second, courts activity is biased againstthe quasi-judicial role of the parties and the market. Third, Market enforcement is based on reputationalassets that are badly exposed to opportunism.

Testing financing constraints on firm investment using variable capital

We consider a dynamic multifactor model of investment with financing imperfections,adjustment costs and fixed and variable capital. We use the model to derive a test offinancing constraints based on a reduced form variable capital equation. Simulation resultsshow that this test correctly identifies financially constrained firms even when the estimationof firms investment opportunities is very noisy. In addition, the test is well specified inthe presence of both concave and convex adjustment costs of fixed capital. We confirmempirically the validity of this test on a sample of small Italian manufacturing companies.

Exact tests for correlation and for the slope in simple linear regressions without making assumptions

We present an exact test for whether two random variables that have known bounds on their support are negatively correlated. The alternative hypothesis is that they are not negatively correlated. No assumptions are made on the underlying distributions. We show by example that the Spearman rank correlation test as the competing exact test of correlation in nonparametric settings rests on an additional assumption on the data generating process without which it is not valid as a test for correlation.We then show how to test for the significance of the slope in a linear regression analysis that invovles a single independent variable and where outcomes of the dependent variable belong to a known bounded set.

Spread spectrum magnetic resonance imaging.

We propose a novel compressed sensing technique to accelerate the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) acquisition process. The method, coined spread spectrum MRI or simply s(2)MRI, consists of premodulating the signal of interest by a linear chirp before random k-space under-sampling, and then reconstructing the signal with nonlinear algorithms that promote sparsity. The effectiveness of the procedure is theoretically underpinned by the optimization of the coherence between the sparsity and sensing bases. The proposed technique is thoroughly studied by means of numerical simulations, as well as phantom and in vivo experiments on a 7T scanner. Our results suggest that s(2)MRI performs better than state-of-the-art variable density k-space under-sampling approaches.

Money and prices in models of bounded rationality in high inflation economies

This paper studies the short run correlation of inflation and money growth. We study whether a model of learning can do better than a model of rational expectations, we focus our study on countries of high inflation. We take the money process as an exogenous variable, estimated from the data through a switching regime process. We findthat the rational expectations model and the model of learning both offer very good explanations for the joint behavior of money and prices.

Insects associated with the composting process of solid urban waste separated at the source

Sarcosaprophagous macroinvertebrates (earthworms, termites and a number of Diptera larvae) enhance changes in the physical and chemical properties of organic matter during degradation and stabilization processes in composting, causing a decrease in the molecular weights of compounds. This activity makes these organisms excellent recyclers of organic matter. This article evaluates the succession of insects associated with the decomposition of solid urban waste separated at the source. The study was carried out in the city of Medellin, Colombia. A total of 11,732 individuals were determined, belonging to the classes Insecta and Arachnida. Species of three orders of Insecta were identified, Diptera, Coleoptera and Hymenoptera. Diptera corresponding to 98.5% of the total, was the most abundant and diverse group, with 16 families (Calliphoridae, Drosophilidae, Psychodidae, Fanniidae, Muscidae, Milichiidae, Ulidiidae, Scatopsidae, Sepsidae, Sphaeroceridae, Heleomyzidae, Stratiomyidae, Syrphidae, Phoridae, Tephritidae and Curtonotidae) followed by Coleoptera with five families (Carabidae, Staphylinidae, Ptiliidae, Hydrophilidae and Phalacaridae). Three stages were observed during the composting process, allowing species associated with each stage to be identified. Other species were also present throughout the whole process. In terms of number of species, Diptera was the most important group observed, particularly Ornidia obesa, considered a highly invasive species, and Hermetia illuscens, both reported as beneficial for decomposition of organic matter.

A process approach to the utility for gambling

This paper argues that any specific utility or disutility for gamblingmust be excluded from expected utility because such a theory is consequentialwhile a pleasure or displeasure for gambling is a matter of process, notof consequences. A (dis)utility for gambling is modeled as a process utilitywhich monotonically combines with expected utility restricted to consequences.This allows for a process (dis)utility for gambling to be revealed. Asan illustration, the model shows how empirical observations in the Allaisparadox can reveal a process disutility of gambling. A more general modelof rational behavior combining processes and consequences is then proposedand discussed.

Monitoring the university admissions process in Spain

The examinations taken by high-school graduates in Spain and the role ofthe examination in the university admissions process are described. Thefollowing issues arising in the assessment of the process are discussed:reliability of grading, comparability of the grades and scores(equating),maintenance of standards, and compilation and use of the grading process,and their integration in the operational grading are proposed. Variousschemes for score adjustment are reviewed and feasibility of theirimplementation discussed. The advantages of pretesting of items and ofempirical checks of experts' judgements are pointed out. The paperconcludes with an outline of a planned reorganisation of the highereducation in Spain, and with a call for a comprehensive programme ofempirical research concurrent with the operation of the examination andscoring system.

Irreversible investment in stochastically cyclical markets

This paper presents a new framework for studying irreversible (dis)investment whena market follows a random number of random-length cycles (such as a high-tech productmarket). It is assumed that a firm facing such market evolution is always unsure aboutwhether the current cycle is the last one, although it can update its beliefs about theprobability of facing a permanent decline by observing that no further growth phasearrives. We show that the existence of regime shifts in fluctuating markets suffices for anoption value of waiting to (dis)invest to arise, and we provide a marginal interpretationof the optimal (dis)investment policies, absent in the real options literature. Thepaper also shows that, despite the stochastic process of the underlying variable has acontinuous sample path, the discreteness in the regime changes implies that the samplepath of the firm s value experiences jumps whenever the regime switches all of a sudden,irrespective of whether the firm is active or not.

Granulomatosis-associated common variable immunodeficiency disorder: a case-control study versus sarcoidosis.

The aim of the present study was to investigate to what extent interstitial lung disease (ILD) in common variable immunodeficiency disorder (CVID)-associated granulomatous disease (GD) is similar to pulmonary sarcoidosis 20 patients with CVID/GD were included in a retrospective study conducted by the Groupe Sarcoïdose Francophone. Medical records were centralised. Patients were compared with 60 controls with sarcoidosis. Clinical examination showed more frequent crackles in patients than controls (45% versus 1.7%, respectively; p<0.001). On thoracic computed tomography scans, nodules (often multiple and with smooth margins), air bronchograms and halo signs were more frequent in patients than controls (80% versus 42%, respectively; p=0.004) as well as bronchiectasis (65% versus 23%, respectively; p<0.001). The micronodule distribution was perilymphatic in 100% of controls and in 42% of patients (p<0.001). Bronchoalveolar lavage analysis showed lower T-cell CD4/CD8 ratios in patients than in controls (mean±sd 1.6±1.1 versus 5.3±4, respectively; p<0.01). On pathological analysis, nodules and consolidations corresponded to granulomatous lesions with or without lymphocytic disorders in most cases. Mortality was higher in patients than controls (30% versus 0%, respectively) and resulted from common variable immunodeficiency complications. ILD in CVID/GD presents a specific clinical picture and evolution that are markedly different from those of sarcoidosis.