Minimizing bounded uncertainty impact on scheduling with earliest start and due-date constraints via interval computation

Bounded uncertainty is a major challenge to real life scheduling as it increases the risk and cost depending on the objective function. Bounded uncertainty provides limited information about its nature. It provides only the upper and the lower bounds without information in between, in contrast to probability distributions and fuzzymembership functions. Bratley algorithm is usually used for scheduling with the constraints of earliest start and due-date. It is formulated as . The proposed research uses interval computation to minimize the impact of bounded uncertainty of processing times on Bratley’s algorithm. It minimizes the uncertainty of the estimate of the objective function. The proposed concept is to do the calculations on the interval values and approximate the end result instead of approximating each interval then doing numerical calculations. This methodology gives a more certain estimate of the objective function.

A parametric approach to 3D massing and density modelling

This paper addresses the current void between social agendas, environmental criteria and design methodology in urban planning through the implementation of new computational systems. It considers the application of digital design tools such as GIS and parametric systems towards more efficient and effective design solutions. The digital design methods have been developed and tested within Grimshaw Architects Design Technology Group on both Australian and international urban development projects. A methodology for the use of parametric design for urban design development is suggested for defining, simplifying and categorising planning and design strategies. The following tools are a means of generating urban design concepts as digital forms in order to better inform the designer during the design process.

Understanding the sources of uncertainty to reduce the risks of undesirable outcomes in large-scale freshwater ecosystem restoration projects: an example from the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia

There are a growing number of large-scale freshwater ecological restoration projects worldwide. Assessments of the benefits and costs of restoration often exclude an analysis of uncertainty in the modelled outcomes. To address this shortcoming we explicitly model the uncertainties associated with measures of ecosystem health in the estuary of the Murray– Darling Basin, Australia and how those measures may change with the implementation of a Basin-wide Plan to recover water to improve ecosystem health. Specifically, we compare two metrics – one simple and one more complex – to manage end-of-system flow requirements for one ecosystem asset in the Basin, the internationally important Coorong saline wetlands. Our risk assessment confirms that the ecological conditions in the Coorong are likely to improve with implementation of the Basin Plan; however, there are risks of a Type III error (where the correct answer is found for the wrong question) associated with using the simple metric for adaptive management. 

PANIC in the presence of uncertainty about the deterministic trend

Most macroeconomic and financial panel variables are trending. However, because of the well-known power problem in the presence of incidental trends, many researchers gamble that their unit root test regressions can be ran without such trends, thereby running the risk of obtaining spurious results. This article takes one of the most general and popular panel unit root tests, known as PANIC, and shows how it can be modified to account for the uncertainty regarding the deterministic trend.

Oil price uncertainty and sovereign risk: evidence from Asian economies

In this paper, we test whether oil price uncertainty predicts credit default swap (CDS) returns for eight Asian countries. We use the Westerlund and Narayan, 2011 and Westerlund and Narayan, 2012 predictability test that accounts for any persistence in and endogeneity of the predictor variable. The estimator also accounts for any heteroskedasticity in the regression model. In-sample evidence reveals that oil price uncertainty predicts CDS returns for three Asian countries, whereas out-of-sample evidence suggests that oil price uncertainty predicts CDS returns for six countries.

Minimizing impact of bounded uncertainty on McNaughton's scheduling algorithm via interval programming

Uncertainty of data affects decision making process as it increases the risk and the costs of the decision. One of the challenges in minimizing the impact of the bounded uncertainty on any scheduling algorithm is the lack of information, as only the upper bound and the lower bound are provided without any known probability or membership function. On the contrary, probabilistic uncertainty can use probability distributions and fuzzy uncertainty can use the membership function. McNaughton's algorithm is used to find the optimum schedule that minimizes the makespan taking into consideration the preemption of tasks. The challenge here is the bounded inaccuracy of the input parameters for the algorithm, namely known as bounded uncertain data. This research uses interval programming to minimise the impact of bounded uncertainty of input parameters on McNaughton’s algorithm, it minimises the uncertainty of the cost function estimate and increase its optimality. This research is based on the hypothesis that doing the calculations on interval values then approximate the end result will produce more accurate results than approximating each interval input then doing numerical calculations.

Australian Mothers' notions of risk and uncertainty in relation to their pre-teen children

In this article we examine the ways discourses of risk manifested and played out within and across two groups of Australian mothers living in two large urban centres in Australia: the first comprised of mothers who had a pre-teen child diagnosed with an eating disorder (n = 13); the second of mothers who had a pre-teen child without the symptoms or diagnosis of an eating disorder (n = 13). In 2011 and 2012, we conducted in-depth interviews with the mothers in their homes on their ideas about health and their relationships with their children. An analysis of the data collected from these interviews indicated that having a pre-teen child diagnosed with an eating disorder had a decisive impact on how the mothers constituted and responded to risk. For mothers, who had a pre-teen child with an eating disorder, risk was intensified by bio-medical discourses. The particular intensifications of risk limited the ways in which mothers could act and often threatened to undermine their abilities as competent carers. By contrast, the mothers who did not have a pre-teen child with an eating disorder spoke about risk less directly, and with less sense of immediacy. Where these mothers acknowledged risk discourses particularly in regard to health, they were in a stronger position to negotiate them. Our analysis indicates that the ways in which mothers responded to risk is contingent on circumstances and contexts. Mothers’ responses to risk were related to the calculability of the risk and their perceived capacity to manage it.

Responsive façades : parametric control of moveable tilings

The challenge of developing adaptive, responsive low-energy architecture requires new knowledge about the complex and dynamic interaction between envelope architecture, optimization between competing environmental performance metrics (light, heat and wind indices) and local climate variables. Advances in modeling the geometry of building envelopes and control technologies for adaptive buildings now permit the sophisticated evaluation of alternative envelope configurations for a set of performance criteria. 

Developing an analytical framework to assess the uncertainty and flexibility mismatches across the supply chain

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to discuss how decisions regarding organisational flexibility can be improved through targeted resource allocation, by focusing on the supply chain's level of uncertainty exposure. Specifically, the issue of where and in what ways flexibility has been incorporated across the organisation's supply chain is addressed. Design/methodology/approach: A two-phase methodology design based on literature review and case study was used. Using 83 journal articles in the areas of uncertainty and flexibility an analytical process for assessing uncertainty-flexibility mismatches was developed. Furthermore, results from ten interviews with senior/middle managers within the Australian manufacturing sector were used to provide preliminary insights on the usefulness and importance of the analytical process and its relationship with organisational practice. Findings: The paper emphasises the importance of having a systematic and encompassing view of uncertainty-flexibility mismatches across the supply chain, as well as the significance of socio-technical engagement. The paper both conceptually and empirically illustrates how, using a structured analytical process, flexibility requirements across the supply, process, control and demand segments of a supply chain might be assessed. A four-step analytical process was accordingly developed and, its application, usefulness and importance discussed using empirical data. Practical implications: The analytical process presented in this paper can assist managers to obtain a comprehensive overview of supply chain flexibility when dealing with situations involving uncertainty. This can facilitate and improve their decision-making with respect to prioritising attention on identified flexibility gaps in order to ensure stability of their performance. Originality/value: The paper presents a supply chain-wide discussion on the difficulties that uncertainty brings to organisations, and how organisational flexibility might serve to moderate those challenges for supply chain management. It discusses how to identify the flexibility gap and proposes an original analytical process for systematic assessment of uncertainty-flexibility mismatches. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Communication of scientific uncertainty : international case studies on the development of folate and vitamin D Dietary Reference Values.

Transparent evidence-based decision making has been promoted worldwide to engender trust in science and policy making. Yet, little attention has been given to transparency implementation. The degree of transparency (focused on how uncertain evidence was handled) during the development of folate and vitamin D Dietary Reference Values was explored in three a priori defined areas: (i) value request; (ii) evidence evaluation; and (iii) final values.