Electricity price forecasting accounting for renewable energies: optimal combined forecasts

Electricity price forecasting is an interesting problem for all the agents involved in electricity market operation. For instance, every profit maximisation strategy is based on the computation of accurate one-day-ahead forecasts, which is why electricity price forecasting has been a growing field of research in recent years. In addition, the increasing concern about environmental issues has led to a high penetration of renewable energies, particularly wind. In some European countries such as Spain, Germany and Denmark, renewable energy is having a deep impact on the local power markets. In this paper, we propose an optimal model from the perspective of forecasting accuracy, and it consists of a combination of several univariate and multivariate time series methods that account for the amount of energy produced with clean energies, particularly wind and hydro, which are the most relevant renewable energy sources in the Iberian Market. This market is used to illustrate the proposed methodology, as it is one of those markets in which wind power production is more relevant in terms of its percentage of the total demand, but of course our method can be applied to any other liberalised power market. As far as our contribution is concerned, first, the methodology proposed by García-Martos et al(2007 and 2012) is generalised twofold: we allow the incorporation of wind power production and hydro reservoirs, and we do not impose the restriction of using the same model for 24h. A computational experiment and a Design of Experiments (DOE) are performed for this purpose. Then, for those hours in which there are two or more models without statistically significant differences in terms of their forecasting accuracy, a combination of forecasts is proposed by weighting the best models(according to the DOE) and minimising the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE is the most popular accuracy metric for comparing electricity price forecasting models. We construct the combi nation of forecasts by solving several nonlinear optimisation problems that allow computation of the optimal weights for building the combination of forecasts. The results are obtained by a large computational experiment that entails calculating out-of-sample forecasts for every hour in every day in the period from January 2007 to Decem ber 2009. In addition, to reinforce the value of our methodology, we compare our results with those that appear in recent published works in the field. This comparison shows the superiority of our methodology in terms of forecasting accuracy.

Optimal boundary geometry in an elasticity problem: a systematic adjoint approach

In different problems of Elasticity the definition of the optimal gcometry of the boundary, according to a given objective function, is an issue of great interest. Finding the shape of a hole in the middle of a plate subjected to an arbitrary loading such that the stresses along the hole minimizes some functional or the optimal middle curved concrete vault for a tunnel along which a uniform minimum compression are two typical examples. In these two examples the objective functional depends on the geometry of the boundary that can be either a curve (in case of 2D problems) or a surface boundary (in 3D problems). Typically, optimization is achieved by means of an iterative process which requires the computation of gradients of the objective function with respect to design variables. Gradients can by computed in a variety of ways, although adjoint methods either continuous or discrete ones are the more efficient ones when they are applied in different technical branches. In this paper the adjoint continuous method is introduced in a systematic way to this type of problems and an illustrative simple example, namely the finding of an optimal shape tunnel vault immersed in a linearly elastic terrain, is presented.

Towards an Optimal Implementation of Cascade

Cascade is an information reconciliation protocol proposed in the context of secret key agreement in quantum cryptography. This protocol allows removing discrepancies in two partially correlated sequences that belong to distant parties, connected through a public noiseless channel. It is highly interactive, thus requiring a large number of channel communications between the parties to proceed and, although its efficiency is not optimal, it has become the de-facto standard for practical implementations of information reconciliation in quantum key distribution. The aim of this work is to analyze the performance of Cascade, to discuss its strengths, weaknesses and optimization possibilities, comparing with some of the modified versions that have been proposed in the literature. When looking at all design trade-offs, a new view emerges that allows to put forward a number of guidelines and propose near optimal parameters for the practical implementation of Cascade improving performance significantly in comparison with all previous proposals.

How varies optimal welfare pricing with income distribution? The case of the untolled alternative.

In some countries, such as Spain, it is very common that in the same corridor there are two roads with the same origin and destination but with some differences. The most important contrast is that one is a toll highway which offers a better quality than the parallel road in exchange of a price. The users decide if the price of the toll is worth to pay for the advantages offered. This problem is known as the untolled alternative and it has been largely studied in the academic literature, particularly related to economic efficiency and the optimal welfare toll. However, there is a gap in the literature academic regarding how it affects income distribution to the optimal toll. The main objective of the paper is to fill this gap. In this paper a theoretical model in order to obtain the optimal welfare price in a toll highway that competes for capturing the traffic with a conventional road is developed. This model is done for non-usual users who decide over the expectation of free flow conditions. This model is finally applied to the variables we want to focus on: average value of travel time (VTT) which is strongly related with income, dispersion of this VTT and traffic levels, from free flow to congestion. Derived from the results, we conclude that the higher the average VTT the higher the optimal price, the higher the dispersion of this VTT the lower the optimal price and finally, the more the traffic the higher the optimal toll.

Optimal Combined Forecasts for Electricity Prices: Influence of Clean Energies

In this work, an electricity price forecasting model is developed. The performance of the proposed approach is improved by considering renewable energies (wind power and hydro generation) as explanatory variables. Additionally, the resulting forecasts are obtained as an optimal combination of a set of several univariate and multivariate time series models. The large computational experiment carried out using out-of-sample forecasts for every hour and day allows withdrawing statistically sound conclusions

Optimal Impulsive Collision Avoidance

The problem of optimal impulsive collision avoidance between two colliding objects in 3-dimensional elliptical Keplerian orbits is investigated with the purpose of establishing the optimal impulse direction and orbit location that give rise to the maximum miss distance following the maneuver. Closed-form analytical expressions are provided that predicts such distance and can be employed to perform a full optimization analysis. After verifying the accuracy of the expression for any orbital eccentricity and encounter geometry the optimum maneuver direction is derived as a function of the arc length separation between the maneuver point and the predicted collision point. The provided formulas can be used for high accuracy instantaneous estimation of the outcome of a generic impulsive collision avoidance maneuver and its optimization

Solution of optimal continuous low-thrust transfer using Lie transforms

This paper addresses the problem of optimal constant continuous low-thrust transfer in the context of the restricted two-body problem (R2BP). Using the Pontryagin’s principle, the problem is formulated as a two point boundary value problem (TPBVP) for a Hamiltonian system. Lie transforms obtained through the Deprit method allow us to obtain the canonical mapping of the phase flow as a series in terms of the order of magnitude of the thrust applied. The reachable set of states starting from a given initial condition using optimal control policy is obtained analytically. In addition, a particular optimal transfer can be computed as the solution of a non-linear algebraic equation. Se investiga el uso de series y transformadas de Lie en problemas de optimización de trayectorias de satélites impulsados por motores de bajo empuje

Analysis of the geometric altimetry to support aircraft optimal trajectories within the future 4d trajectory management

Over the past few years, the common practice within air traffic management has been that commercial aircraft fly by following a set of predefined routes to reach their destination. Currently, aircraft operators are requesting more flexibility to fly according to their prefer- ences, in order to achieve their business objectives. Due to this reason, much research effort is being invested in developing different techniques which evaluate aircraft optimal trajectory and traffic synchronisation. Also, the inefficient use of the airspace using barometric altitude overall in the landing and takeoff phases or in Continuous Descent Approach (CDA) trajectories where currently it is necessary introduce the necessary reference setting (QNH or QFE). To solve this problem and to permit a better airspace management born the interest of this research. Where the main goals will be to evaluate the impact, weakness and strength of the use of geometrical altitude instead of the use of barometric altitude. Moreover, this dissertation propose the design a simplified trajectory simulator which is able to predict aircraft trajectories. The model is based on a three degrees of freedom aircraft point mass model that can adapt aircraft performance data from Base of Aircraft Data, and meteorological information. A feature of this trajectory simulator is to support the improvement of the strategic and pre-tactical trajectory planning in the future Air Traffic Management. To this end, the error of the tool (aircraft Trajectory Simulator) is measured by comparing its performance variables with actual flown trajectories obtained from Flight Data Recorder information. The trajectory simulator is validated by analysing the performance of different type of aircraft and considering different routes. A fuel consumption estimation error was identified and a correction is proposed for each type of aircraft model. In the future Air Traffic Management (ATM) system, the trajectory becomes the fundamental element of a new set of operating procedures collectively referred to as Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO). Thus, governmental institutions, academia, and industry have shown a renewed interest for the application of trajectory optimisation techniques in com- mercial aviation. The trajectory optimisation problem can be solved using optimal control methods. In this research we present and discuss the existing methods for solving optimal control problems focusing on direct collocation, which has received recent attention by the scientific community. In particular, two families of collocation methods are analysed, i.e., Hermite-Legendre-Gauss-Lobatto collocation and the pseudospectral collocation. They are first compared based on a benchmark case study: the minimum fuel trajectory problem with fixed arrival time. For the sake of scalability to more realistic problems, the different meth- ods are also tested based on a real Airbus 319 El Cairo-Madrid flight. Results show that pseudospectral collocation, which has shown to be numerically more accurate and computa- tionally much faster, is suitable for the type of problems arising in trajectory optimisation with application to ATM. Fast and accurate optimal trajectory can contribute properly to achieve the new challenges of the future ATM. As atmosphere uncertainties are one of the most important issues in the trajectory plan- ning, the final objective of this dissertation is to have a magnitude order of how different is the fuel consumption under different atmosphere condition. Is important to note that in the strategic phase planning the optimal trajectories are determined by meteorological predictions which differ from the moment of the flight. The optimal trajectories have shown savings of at least 500 [kg] in the majority of the atmosphere condition (different pressure, and temperature at Mean Sea Level, and different lapse rate temperature) with respect to the conventional procedure simulated at the same atmosphere condition.This results show that the implementation of optimal profiles are beneficial under the current Air traffic Management (ATM).

Optimal laser intensity profiles for a uniform target illumination in direct-drive inertial confinement fusion

A numerical method providing the optimal laser intensity profiles for a direct-drive inertial confinement fusion scheme has been developed. The method provides an alternative approach to phase-space optimization studies, which can prove computationally expensive. The method applies to a generic irradiation configuration characterized by an arbitrary number NB of laser beams provided that they irradiate the whole target surface, and thus goes beyond previous analyses limited to symmetric configurations. The calculated laser intensity profiles optimize the illumination of a spherical target. This paper focuses on description of the method, which uses two steps: first, the target irradiation is calculated for initial trial laser intensities, and then in a second step the optimal laser intensities are obtained by correcting the trial intensities using the calculated illumination. A limited number of example applications to direct drive on the Laser MegaJoule (LMJ) are described.

Fast ignition driven by quasi-monoenergetic ions: Optimal ion type and reduction of ignition energies with an ion beam array

Fast ignition of inertial fusion targets driven by quasi-monoenergetic ion beams is investigated by means of numerical simulations. Light and intermediate ions such as lithium, carbon, aluminum and vanadium have been considered. Simulations show that the minimum ignition energies of an ideal configuration of compressed Deuterium-Tritium are almost independent on the ion atomic number. However, they are obtained for increasing ion energies, which scale, approximately, as Z2, where Z is the ion atomic number. Assuming that the ion beam can be focused into 10 ?m spots, a new irradiation scheme is proposed to reduce the ignition energies. The combination of intermediate Z ions, such as 5.5 GeV vanadium, and the new irradiation scheme allows a reduction of the number of ions required for ignition by, roughly, three orders of magnitude when compared with the standard proton fast ignition scheme.

Optimal safety incentives in road concession contracts

Changes in the roles of the government and the private sector in the provision of public services along with budget constraints are resulting in an increasing use of the concession approach for financing and managing roads. In the last few years, many of these contracts set up incentives linked to bonuses to encourage the concessionaire to render a better service to the users. Road safety is one the aspects on the basis of which concessionaires can be rewarded according to their performance. The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether road safety incentives are being defined in the right way nowadays in different European countries and also identify what incentives would need to be implemented to achieve a socially optimal road safety level. To that end, we develop a specific incentive for road concession contracts that encourages companies to achieve the optimal level. We apply this methodology to three case studies of concessions recently awarded in order to determine to what extend the incentives they set up are closer or farther to the optimum.

An optimal yet fast pruning algorithm to reduce latency in multiview prediction structures

We propose a new algorithm for the design of prediction structures with low delay and limited penalty in the rate-distortion performance for multiview video coding schemes. This algorithm constitutes one of the elements of a framework for the analysis and optimization of delay in multiview coding schemes that is based in graph theory. The objective of the algorithm is to find the best combination of prediction dependencies to prune from a multiview prediction structure, given a number of cuts. Taking into account the properties of the graph-based analysis of the encoding delay, the algorithm is able to find the best prediction dependencies to eliminate from an original prediction structure, while limiting the number of cut combinations to evaluate. We show that this algorithm obtains optimum results in the reduction of the encoding latency with a lower computational complexity than exhaustive search alternatives.

The optimal allocation rule and the water market as the most effective tools of managing water shortage in an irrigation district

The conference program will cover all areas of environmental and resource economics, ranging from topics prevailing in the general debate, such as climate change, energy sources, water management and ecosystem services evaluation, to more specialized subjects such as biodiversity conservation or persistent organic pollutants. The congress will be held on the Faculty of Economics of the University of Girona, located in Montilivi, a city quarter situated just few minutes from the city center, conveniently connected by bus lines L8 and L11.

How varies optimal welfare pricing with income distribution? The case of the untolled alternative

In some countries, such as Spain, it is very common that in the same corridor there are two roads with the same origin and destination but with some differences. The most important contrast is that one is a toll highway which offers a better quality than the parallel road in exchange of a price. The users decide if the price of the toll is worth paying for the advantages offered. This problem is known as the untolled alternative and it has been largely studied in the academic literature, particularly related to economic efficiency and the optimal welfare toll. However, there is a gap in the academic literature regarding how income distribution affects the optimal toll. The main objective of the paper is to fill this gap. In this paper a theoretical model is developed in order to obtain the optimal welfare price in a toll highway that competes with a conventional road for capturing the traffic. This model is done for non-usual users who decide over the expectation of free flow conditions. This model is finally applied to the variables we want to focus on: average value of travel time (VTT) which is strongly related with income, dispersion of this VTT and traffic levels, from free flow to congestion. Derived from the results, we conclude that the higher the average VTT the higher the optimal price, the higher the dispersion of this VTT the lower the optimal price and finally, the more the traffic the higher the optimal toll

What is the optimal stitching orientation from an aerial survey perspective?

Mosaicing is a technique that allows obtaining a large high resolution image by stitching several images together. These base images are usually acquired from an elevated point of view. Until recently, low-altitude image acquisition has been performed typically by using using airplanes, as well as other manned platforms. However, mini unmanned aerial vehicles (MUAV) endowed with a camera have lately made this task more available for small for cicil applications, for example for small farmers in order to obtain accurate agronomic information about their crop fields. The stitching orientation, or the image acquisition orientation usually coincides with the aircraft heading assuming a downwards orientation of the camera. In this paper, the efect of the image orientation in the eficiency of the aerial coverage path planning is studied. Moreover, an algorithm to compute an optimal stitching orientation angle is proposed and results are numerically compared with classical approaches.