Analysis of space-time environmental data in complex regions

This thesis develops a comprehensive and a flexible statistical framework for the analysis and detection of space, time and space-time clusters of environmental point data. The developed clustering methods were applied in both simulated datasets and real-world environmental phenomena; however, only the cases of forest fires in Canton of Ticino (Switzerland) and in Portugal are expounded in this document. Normally, environmental phenomena can be modelled as stochastic point processes where each event, e.g. the forest fire ignition point, is characterised by its spatial location and occurrence in time. Additionally, information such as burned area, ignition causes, landuse, topographic, climatic and meteorological features, etc., can also be used to characterise the studied phenomenon. Thereby, the space-time pattern characterisa- tion represents a powerful tool to understand the distribution and behaviour of the events and their correlation with underlying processes, for instance, socio-economic, environmental and meteorological factors. Consequently, we propose a methodology based on the adaptation and application of statistical and fractal point process measures for both global (e.g. the Morisita Index, the Box-counting fractal method, the multifractal formalism and the Ripley's K-function) and local (e.g. Scan Statistics) analysis. Many measures describing the space-time distribution of environmental phenomena have been proposed in a wide variety of disciplines; nevertheless, most of these measures are of global character and do not consider complex spatial constraints, high variability and multivariate nature of the events. Therefore, we proposed an statistical framework that takes into account the complexities of the geographical space, where phenomena take place, by introducing the Validity Domain concept and carrying out clustering analyses in data with different constrained geographical spaces, hence, assessing the relative degree of clustering of the real distribution. Moreover, exclusively to the forest fire case, this research proposes two new methodologies to defining and mapping both the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) described as the interaction zone between burnable vegetation and anthropogenic infrastructures, and the prediction of fire ignition susceptibility. In this regard, the main objective of this Thesis was to carry out a basic statistical/- geospatial research with a strong application part to analyse and to describe complex phenomena as well as to overcome unsolved methodological problems in the characterisation of space-time patterns, in particular, the forest fire occurrences. Thus, this Thesis provides a response to the increasing demand for both environmental monitoring and management tools for the assessment of natural and anthropogenic hazards and risks, sustainable development, retrospective success analysis, etc. The major contributions of this work were presented at national and international conferences and published in 5 scientific journals. National and international collaborations were also established and successfully accomplished. -- Cette thèse développe une méthodologie statistique complète et flexible pour l'analyse et la détection des structures spatiales, temporelles et spatio-temporelles de données environnementales représentées comme de semis de points. Les méthodes ici développées ont été appliquées aux jeux de données simulées autant qu'A des phénomènes environnementaux réels; nonobstant, seulement le cas des feux forestiers dans le Canton du Tessin (la Suisse) et celui de Portugal sont expliqués dans ce document. Normalement, les phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être modélisés comme des processus ponctuels stochastiques ou chaque événement, par ex. les point d'ignition des feux forestiers, est déterminé par son emplacement spatial et son occurrence dans le temps. De plus, des informations tels que la surface bru^lée, les causes d'ignition, l'utilisation du sol, les caractéristiques topographiques, climatiques et météorologiques, etc., peuvent aussi être utilisées pour caractériser le phénomène étudié. Par conséquent, la définition de la structure spatio-temporelle représente un outil puissant pour compren- dre la distribution du phénomène et sa corrélation avec des processus sous-jacents tels que les facteurs socio-économiques, environnementaux et météorologiques. De ce fait, nous proposons une méthodologie basée sur l'adaptation et l'application de mesures statistiques et fractales des processus ponctuels d'analyse global (par ex. l'indice de Morisita, la dimension fractale par comptage de boîtes, le formalisme multifractal et la fonction K de Ripley) et local (par ex. la statistique de scan). Des nombreuses mesures décrivant les structures spatio-temporelles de phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être trouvées dans la littérature. Néanmoins, la plupart de ces mesures sont de caractère global et ne considèrent pas de contraintes spatiales com- plexes, ainsi que la haute variabilité et la nature multivariée des événements. A cet effet, la méthodologie ici proposée prend en compte les complexités de l'espace géographique ou le phénomène a lieu, à travers de l'introduction du concept de Domaine de Validité et l'application des mesures d'analyse spatiale dans des données en présentant différentes contraintes géographiques. Cela permet l'évaluation du degré relatif d'agrégation spatiale/temporelle des structures du phénomène observé. En plus, exclusif au cas de feux forestiers, cette recherche propose aussi deux nouvelles méthodologies pour la définition et la cartographie des zones périurbaines, décrites comme des espaces anthropogéniques à proximité de la végétation sauvage ou de la forêt, et de la prédiction de la susceptibilité à l'ignition de feu. A cet égard, l'objectif principal de cette Thèse a été d'effectuer une recherche statistique/géospatiale avec une forte application dans des cas réels, pour analyser et décrire des phénomènes environnementaux complexes aussi bien que surmonter des problèmes méthodologiques non résolus relatifs à la caractérisation des structures spatio-temporelles, particulièrement, celles des occurrences de feux forestières. Ainsi, cette Thèse fournit une réponse à la demande croissante de la gestion et du monitoring environnemental pour le déploiement d'outils d'évaluation des risques et des dangers naturels et anthro- pogéniques. Les majeures contributions de ce travail ont été présentées aux conférences nationales et internationales, et ont été aussi publiées dans 5 revues internationales avec comité de lecture. Des collaborations nationales et internationales ont été aussi établies et accomplies avec succès.

Profile, cost and pattern of prescriptions for polymedicated patients in Catalonia, Spain

OBJECTIVES: Polypharmacy is one of the main management issues in public health policies because of its financial impact and the increasing number of people involved. The polymedicated population according to their demographic and therapeutic profile and the cost for the public healthcare system were characterised. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Primary healthcare in Barcelona Health Region, Catalonia, Spain (5 105 551 inhabitants registered). PARTICIPANTS: All insured polymedicated patients. Polymedicated patients were those with a consumption of ≥16 drugs/month. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: The study variables were related to age, gender and medication intake obtained from the 2008 census and records of prescriptions dispensed in pharmacies and charged to the public health system. RESULTS: There were 36 880 polymedicated patients (women: 64.2%; average age: 74.5±10.9 years). The total number of prescriptions billed in 2008 was 2 266 830 (2 272 920 total package units). The most polymedicated group (up to 40% of the total prescriptions) was patients between 75 and 84 years old. The average number of prescriptions billed monthly per patient was 32±2, with an average cost of 452.7±27.5. The total cost of those prescriptions corresponded to 2% of the drug expenditure in Catalonia. The groups N, C, A, R and M represented 71.4% of the total number of drug package units dispensed to polymedicated patients. Great variability was found between the medication profiles of men and women, and between age groups; greater discrepancies were found in paediatric patients (5-14 years) and the elderly (≥65 years). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides essential information to take steps towards rational drug use and a structured approach in the polymedicated population in primary healthcare.

Framework for Traffic Pattern Identification: Required Step for Short-term Forecasting

In the world of transport management, the term ‘anticipation’ is gradually replacing ‘reaction’. Indeed, the ability to forecast traffic evolution in a network should ideally form the basis for many traffic management strategies and multiple ITS applications. Real-time prediction capabilities are therefore becoming a concrete need for the management of networks, both for urban and interurban environments, and today’s road operator has increasingly complex and exacting requirements. Recognising temporal patterns in traffic or the manner in which sequential traffic events evolve over time have been important considerations in short-term traffic forecasting. However, little work has been conducted in the area of identifying or associating traffic pattern occurrence with prevailing traffic conditions. This paper presents a framework for detection pattern identification based on finite mixture models using the EM algorithm for parameter estimation. The computation results have been conducted taking into account the traffic data available in an urban network.

Evolutionary Ecology of Mountain Birch in Subarctic Stress Gradients: Interplay of Biotic and Abiotic Factors in Plant-Plant Interactions and Evolutionary Processes

In nature, variation for example in herbivory, wind exposure, moisture and pollution impact often creates variation in physiological stress and plant productivity. This variation is seldom clear-cut, but rather results in clines of decreasing growth and productivity towards the high-stress end. These clines of unidirectionally changing stress are generally known as ‘stress gradients’. Through its effect on plant performance, stress has the capacity to fundamentally alter the ecological relationships between individuals, and through variation in survival and reproduction it also causes evolutionary change, i.e. local adaptations to stress and eventually speciation. In certain conditions local adaptations to environmental stress have been documented in a matter of just a few generations. In plant-plant interactions, intensities of both negative interactions (competition) and positive ones (facilitation) are expected to vary along stress gradients. The stress-gradient hypothesis (SGH) suggests that net facilitation will be strongest in conditions of high biotic and abiotic stress, while a more recent ‘humpback’ model predicts strongest net facilitation at intermediate levels of stress. Plant interactions on stress gradients, however, are affected by a multitude of confounding factors, making studies of facilitation-related theories challenging. Among these factors are plant ontogeny, spatial scale, and local adaptation to stress. The last of these has very rarely been included in facilitation studies, despite the potential co-occurrence of local adaptations and changes in net facilitation in stress gradients. Current theory would predict both competitive effects and facilitative responses to be weakest in populations locally adapted to withstand high abiotic stress. This thesis is based on six experiments, conducted both in greenhouses and in the field in Russia, Norway and Finland, with mountain birch (Betula pubescens subsp. czerepanovii) as the model species. The aims were to study potential local adaptations in multiple stress gradients (both natural and anthropogenic), changes in plant-plant interactions under conditions of varying stress (as predicted by SGH), potential mechanisms behind intraspecific facilitation, and factors confounding plant-plant facilitation, such as spatiotemporal, ontogenetic, and genetic differences. I found rapid evolutionary adaptations (occurring within a time-span of 60 to 70 years) towards heavy-metal resistance around two copper-nickel smelters, a phenomenon that has resulted in a trade-off of decreased performance in pristine conditions. Heavy-metal-adapted individuals had lowered nickel uptake, indicating a possible mechanism behind the detected resistance. Seedlings adapted to heavy-metal toxicity were not co-resistant to others forms of abiotic stress, but showed co-resistance to biotic stress by being consumed to a lesser extent by insect herbivores. Conversely, populations from conditions of high natural stress (wind, drought etc.) showed no local adaptations, despite much longer evolutionary time scales. Due to decreasing emissions, I was unable to test SGH in the pollution gradients. In natural stress gradients, however, plant performance was in accordance with SGH, with the strongest host-seedling facilitation found at the high-stress sites in two different stress gradients. Factors confounding this pattern included (1) plant size / ontogenetic status, with seedling-seedling interactions being competition dominated and host-seedling interactions potentially switching towards competition with seedling growth, and (2) spatial distance, with competition dominating at very short planting distances, and facilitation being strongest at a distance of circa ¼ benefactor height. I found no evidence for changes in facilitation with respect to the evolutionary histories of plant populations. Despite the support for SGH, it may be that the ‘humpback’ model is more relevant when the main stressor is resource-related, while what I studied were the effects of ‘non-resource’ stressors (i.e. heavy-metal pollution and wind). The results have potential practical applications: the utilisation of locally adapted seedlings and plant facilitation may increase the success of future restoration efforts in industrial barrens as well as in other wind-exposed sites. The findings also have implications with regard to the effects of global change in subarctic environments: the documented potential by mountain birch for rapid evolutionary change, together with the general lack of evolutionary ‘dead ends’, due to not (over)specialising to current natural conditions, increase the chances of this crucial forest-forming tree persisting even under the anticipated climate change.

Analysis of a Plant Complex Resistance Gene Locus Underlying Immune-Related Hybrid Incompatibility and Its Occurrence in Nature

Mechanisms underlying speciation in plants include detrimental (incompatible) genetic interactions between parental alleles that incur a fitness cost in hybrids. We reported on recessive hybrid incompatibility between an Arabidopsis thaliana strain from Poland, Landsberg erecta (Ler), and many Central Asian A. thaliana strains. The incompatible interaction is determined by a polymorphic cluster of Toll/interleukin-1 receptor-nucleotide binding-leucine rich repeat (TNL) RPP1 (Recognition of Peronospora parasitica1)-like genes in Ler and alleles of the receptor-like kinase Strubbelig Receptor Family 3 (SRF3) in Central Asian strains Kas-2 or Kond, causing temperature-dependent autoimmunity and loss of growth and reproductive fitness. Here, we genetically dissected the RPP1-like Ler locus to determine contributions of individual RPP1-like Ler (R1R8) genes to the incompatibility. In a neutral background, expression of most RPP1-like Ler genes, except R3, has no effect on growth or pathogen resistance. Incompatibility involves increased R3 expression and engineered R3 overexpression in a neutral background induces dwarfism and sterility. However, no individual RPP1-like Ler gene is sufficient for incompatibility between Ler and Kas-2 or Kond, suggesting that co-action of at least two RPP1-like members underlies this epistatic interaction. We find that the RPP1-like Ler haplotype is frequent and occurs with other Ler RPP1-like alleles in a local population in Gorzów Wielkopolski (Poland). Only Gorzów individuals carrying the RPP1-like Ler haplotype are incompatible with Kas-2 and Kond, whereas other RPP1-like alleles in the population are compatible. Therefore, the RPP1-like Ler haplotype has been maintained in genetically different individuals at a single site, allowing exploration of forces shaping the evolution of RPP1-like genes at local and regional population scales.

Change of Electricity Distribution Industry: Drivers and Opening Business Opportunities

As a result of the recent regulatory amendments and other development trends in the electricity distribution business, the sector is currently witnessing radical restructuring that will eventually impact the business logics of the sector. This report represents upcoming changes in the electricity distribution industry and concentrates on the factors that are expected to be the most fundamental ones. Electricity network companies nowadays struggle with legislative and regulatory requirements that focus on both the operational efficiency and the reliability of electricity distribution networks. The forces that have an impact on the distribution network companies can be put into three main categories that define the transformation at a general level. Those are: (1) a requirement for a more functional marketplace for energy, (2) environmental aspects (combating climate change etc.), and (3) a strongly emphasized requirement for the security of energy supply. The first point arises from the legislators’ attempt to increase competition in electricity retail markets, the second one concerns both environmental protection and human safety issues, and the third one indicates societies’ reduced willingness to accept interruptions in electricity supply. In the future, regulation of electricity distribution business may lower the threshold for building more weather-resistant networks, which in turn means increased underground cabling. This development pattern is reinforced by tightening safety and environmental regulations that ultimately make the overhead lines expensive to build and maintain. The changes will require new approaches particularly in network planning, construction, and maintenance. The concept for planning, constructing, and maintaining cable networks is necessary because the interdependencies between network operations are strong, in other words, the nature of the operation requires a linkage to other operations.

Promovendo a argumentação no ensino superior de química

Studies have demonstrated the importance of argumentation in science education. Based on this assertion, we have tried to develop argumentative abilities in chemistry undergraduate students through a teaching methodology based on case studies. The process culminated with class presentations by student groups about possible solutions for the cases. To assess the quality of students' argumentation, videotapes of group presentations were collected and analyzed using Toulmin's Argument Pattern (TAP). TAP illustrates the nature of an argument in terms of claims, data, warrants, backings, and rebuttals. The findings of this work support the idea that the case study approach is an effective strategy for enhancing students' ability to argument.

Nontypable Haemophilus influenzae displays a prevalent surface structure molecular pattern in clinical isolates.

Non-typable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) is a Gram negative pathogen that causes acute respiratory infections and is associated with the progression of chronic respiratory diseases. Previous studies have established the existence of a remarkable genetic variability among NTHi strains. In this study we show that, in spite of a high level of genetic heterogeneity, NTHi clinical isolates display a prevalent molecular feature, which could confer fitness during infectious processes. A total of 111 non-isogenic NTHi strains from an identical number of patients, isolated in two distinct geographical locations in the same period of time, were used to analyse nine genes encoding bacterial surface molecules, and revealed the existence of one highly prevalent molecular pattern (lgtF+, lic2A+, lic1D+, lic3A+, lic3B+, siaA−, lic2C+, ompP5+, oapA+) displayed by 94.6% of isolates. Such a genetic profile was associated with a higher bacterial resistance to serum mediated killing and enhanced adherence to human respiratory epithelial cells.

Bowing the violin : a case study for auditory-motor pattern modelling in the context of music performance

This project addresses methodological and technological challenges in the development of multi-modal data acquisition and analysis methods for the representation of instrumental playing technique in music performance through auditory-motor patterning models. The case study is violin playing: a multi-modal database of violin performances has been constructed by recording different musicians while playing short exercises on different violins. The exercise set and recording protocol have been designed to sample the space defined by dynamics (from piano to forte) and tone (from sul tasto to sul ponticello), for each bow stroke type being played on each of the four strings (three different pitches per string) at two different tempi. The data, containing audio, video, and motion capture streams, has been processed and segmented to facilitate upcoming analyses. From the acquired motion data, the positions of the instrument string ends and the bow hair ribbon ends are tracked and processed to obtain a number of bowing descriptors suited for a detailed description and analysis of the bow motion patterns taking place during performance. Likewise, a number of sound perceptual attributes are computed from the audio streams. Besides the methodology and the implementation of a number of data acquisition tools, this project introduces preliminary results from analyzing bowing technique on a multi-modal violin performance database that is unique in its class. A further contribution of this project is the data itself, which will be made available to the scientific community through the repovizz platform.

Virulence pattern of Pyricularia grisea isolates from farmers' fields on newly released upland rice cultivars

The virulence pattern of the isolates of Pyricularia grisea from commercial fields of the upland rice (Oryza sativa) cultivars 'Primavera' and 'BRS Bonança' was analyzed. A hundred and seventy monoconidial isolates of the pathogen virulent to 'Primavera' and 139 to 'BRS Bonança' collected from eight fields, during two years (2001-2003) were tested, under greenhouse conditions, on six newly released rice cultivars. Differences in virulence pattern were observed in pathogenic populations of 'Primavera' and 'BRS Bonança'. Isolates with virulence to improved cultivars were common in samples from farmers' fields in the absence of aloinfection. The virulence frequency of P. grisea isolates collected from 'Primavera'' to cultivars 'BRS Vencedora', 'BRS Colosso', 'BRS Liderança', 'BRS Soberana', 'BRS Curinga' and 'BRS Talento', was high in descending order. On the other hand, in the fungus population of 'BRS BRS Bonança' virulence frequency was high in 'BRS Talento', followed by 'BRS Curinga', 'BRS Vencedora', 'BRS Liderança', 'BRS Colosso' and 'BRS Soberana'. While virulence to 'BRS Talento' was rare among isolates from 'Primavera', it was most frequent in isolates of 'BRS Bonança'. The six improved rice cultivars permitted to differentiating agriculturally important virulences in the pathogen population which can be utilized in selecting breeding lines for specific resistance, in rice blast improvement program.

THE CONCEPT OF 'NATURE' IN ARISTOTLE, AVICENNA AND AVERROES

This study is concerned with 'nature' specifically as the subject-matter of physics, or natural science, as described by Aristotle in his "Physics". It also discusses the definitions of nature, and more specifically physical nature, provided by Avicenna (d. 1037) and Averroes (d. 1198) in their commentaries on Aristotle's "Physics". Avicenna and Averroes share Aristotle's conception of nature as a principle of motion and rest. While according to Aristotle the subject matter of physics appears to be nature, or what exists by nature, Avicenna believes that it is the natural body, and Averroes holds that the subject matter of physics or natural science consists in the natural things, in what constitutes a slight shift in focus.

BRUNO BAUCH AND THE COMPREHENSIBILITY OF NATURE

ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to discuss how Bruno Bauch deals with the problem of the coordination between empirical concepts and spatiotemporal objects. We shall argue that Bauch reformulates the Kantian distinction between concepts and intuitions by means of a philosophical consideration of differential calculus and that he thereby explains the possibility of such coordination, avoiding certain difficulties of the Kantian doctrine.

THE 'TWO TRUTHS' DOCTRINE (SATYADVAYA) AND THE NATURE OF UPĀYA IN NĀGĀRJUNA

ABSTRACT The objective of this article is to contribute to the understanding of Nāgārjuna's 'two truths' doctrine (satyadvaya) as presented in the Mūlamadhyamakakārikā ("The Fundamental Verses of the Middle Path") (XXIV.8-10). For that purpose, we argue that 'two truths' doctrine the basic structural framework for the operational functionality of upāya of upāya (lit., 'skilful means'), perhaps the most important epistemological/pedagogical notion of Mahāyāna Buddhism.