Influence of the Second Bending Mode on the Response of High-Speed Bridges at Resonance

This paper deals with the assessment of the contribution of the second bending mode to the dynamic behavior of simply supported railway bridges. Traditionally the contributions of modes higher than the fundamental have been considered of little importance for the computation of the magnitudes of interest to structural engineers (vertical deflections, bending moments, etc.). Starting from the dimensionless equations of motion of a simply supported beam subjected to moving loads, the key parameters governing the dynamic behavior are identified. Then, a parametric study over realistic ranges of values of those parameters is conducted, and the influence of the second mode examined in detail. The main purpose is to decide whether the second mode should be taken into account for the determination of the maximum displacement and acceleration in high-speed bridges. In addition, the reasons that cause the contribution of the second bending mode to be relevant in some situations are highlighted, particularly with regard to the computation of the maximum acceleration.

Modelling and Control of Stepper Motors for High Accuracy Positioning Systems Used in Radioactive Environments

Hybrid Stepper Motors are widely used in open-loop position applications. They are the choice of actuation for the collimators in the Large Hadron Collider, the largest particle accelerator at CERN. In this case the positioning requirements and the highly radioactive operating environment are unique. The latter forces both the use of long cables to connect the motors to the drives which act as transmission lines and also prevents the use of standard position sensors. However, reliable and precise operation of the collimators is critical for the machine, requiring the prevention of step loss in the motors and maintenance to be foreseen in case of mechanical degradation. In order to make the above possible, an approach is proposed for the application of an Extended Kalman Filter to a sensorless stepper motor drive, when the motor is separated from its drive by long cables. When the long cables and high frequency pulse width modulated control voltage signals are used together, the electrical signals difer greatly between the motor and drive-side of the cable. Since in the considered case only drive-side data is available, it is therefore necessary to estimate the motor-side signals. Modelling the entire cable and motor system in an Extended Kalman Filter is too computationally intensive for standard embedded real-time platforms. It is, in consequence, proposed to divide the problem into an Extended Kalman Filter, based only on the motor model, and separated motor-side signal estimators, the combination of which is less demanding computationally. The efectiveness of this approach is shown in simulation. Then its validity is experimentally demonstrated via implementation in a DSP based drive. A testbench to test its performance when driving an axis of a Large Hadron Collider collimator is presented along with the results achieved. It is shown that the proposed method is capable of achieving position and load torque estimates which allow step loss to be detected and mechanical degradation to be evaluated without the need for physical sensors. These estimation algorithms often require a precise model of the motor, but the standard electrical model used for hybrid stepper motors is limited when currents, which are high enough to produce saturation of the magnetic circuit, are present. New model extensions are proposed in order to have a more precise model of the motor independently of the current level, whilst maintaining a low computational cost. It is shown that a significant improvement in the model It is achieved with these extensions, and their computational performance is compared to study the cost of model improvement versus computation cost. The applicability of the proposed model extensions is demonstrated via their use in an Extended Kalman Filter running in real-time for closed-loop current control and mechanical state estimation. An additional problem arises from the use of stepper motors. The mechanics of the collimators can wear due to the abrupt motion and torque profiles that are applied by them when used in the standard way, i.e. stepping in open-loop. Closed-loop position control, more specifically Field Oriented Control, would allow smoother profiles, more respectful to the mechanics, to be applied but requires position feedback. As mentioned already, the use of sensors in radioactive environments is very limited for reliability reasons. Sensorless control is a known option but when the speed is very low or zero, as is the case most of the time for the motors used in the LHC collimator, the loss of observability prevents its use. In order to allow the use of position sensors without reducing the long term reliability of the whole system, the possibility to switch from closed to open loop is proposed and validated, allowing the use of closed-loop control when the position sensors function correctly and open-loop when there is a sensor failure. A different approach to deal with the switched drive working with long cables is also presented. Switched mode stepper motor drives tend to have poor performance or even fail completely when the motor is fed through a long cable due to the high oscillations in the drive-side current. The design of a stepper motor output fillter which solves this problem is thus proposed. A two stage filter, one devoted to dealing with the diferential mode and the other with the common mode, is designed and validated experimentally. With this ?lter the drive performance is greatly improved, achieving a positioning repeatability even better than with the drive working without a long cable, the radiated emissions are reduced and the overvoltages at the motor terminals are eliminated.

Novel techniques for automorphism group computation

Graph automorphism (GA) is a classical problem, in which the objective is to compute the automorphism group of an input graph. In this work we propose four novel techniques to speed up algorithms that solve the GA problem by exploring a search tree. They increase the performance of the algorithm by allowing to reduce the depth of the search tree, and by effectively pruning it. We formally prove that a GA algorithm that uses these techniques correctly computes the automorphism group of the input graph. We also describe how the techniques have been incorporated into the GA algorithm conauto, as conauto-2.03, with at most an additive polynomial increase in its asymptotic time complexity. We have experimentally evaluated the impact of each of the above techniques with several graph families. We have observed that each of the techniques by itself significantly reduces the number of processed nodes of the search tree in some subset of graphs, which justifies the use of each of them. Then, when they are applied together, their effect is combined, leading to reductions in the number of processed nodes in most graphs. This is also reflected in a reduction of the running time, which is substantial in some graph families.

A new set of integrals of motion to propagate the perturbed two-body problem

A formulation of the perturbed two-body problem that relies on a new set of orbital elements is presented. The proposed method represents a generalization of the special perturbation method published by Peláez et al. (Celest Mech Dyn Astron 97(2):131?150,2007) for the case of a perturbing force that is partially or totally derivable from a potential. We accomplish this result by employing a generalized Sundman time transformation in the framework of the projective decomposition, which is a known approach for transforming the two-body problem into a set of linear and regular differential equations of motion. Numerical tests, carried out with examples extensively used in the literature, show the remarkable improvement of the performance of the new method for different kinds of perturbations and eccentricities. In particular, one notable result is that the quadratic dependence of the position error on the time-like argument exhibited by Peláez?s method for near-circular motion under the J2 perturbation is transformed into linear.Moreover, themethod reveals to be competitive with two very popular elementmethods derived from theKustaanheimo-Stiefel and Sperling-Burdet regularizations.

A novel motion tracking system for evaluation of functional rehabilitation of the upper limbs

Upper limb function impairment is one of the most common sequelae of central nervous system injury, especially in stroke patients and when spinal cord injury produces tetraplegia. Conventional assessment methods cannot provide objective evaluation of patient performance and the tiveness of therapies. The most common assessment tools are based on rating scales, which are inefficient when measuring small changes and can yield subjective bias. In this study, we designed an inertial sensor-based monitoring system composed of five sensors to measure and analyze the complex movements of the upper limbs, which are common in activities of daily living. We developed a kinematic model with nine degrees of freedom to analyze upper limb and head movements in three dimensions. This system was then validated using a commercial optoelectronic system. These findings suggest that an inertial sensor-based motion tracking system can be used in patients who have upper limb impairment through data integration with a virtual reality-based neuroretation system.

Time-motion analysis on Chinese male field hockey players

The aim of the study was to evaluate the match work-rate of Chinese field hockey players by analyzing the distance covered at different intensities pooled by specific positions during different periods of matches. Thirty-eight players from twenty-four male field hockey matches at the 11th Chinese National Games were filmed and analyzed.

Time-motion analysis on Chinese male field hockey players

The aim of the study was to evaluate the match work-rate of Chinese field hockey players by analyzing the distance covered at different intensities pooled by specific positions during different periods of matches. Thirty-eight players from twenty-four male field hockey matches at the 11th Chinese National Games were filmed and analyzed.mas

Evolutionary computation of forests with Degree- and Role-Constrained Minimum Spanning Trees

Finding the degree-constrained minimum spanning tree (DCMST) of a graph is a widely studied NP-hard problem. One of its most important applications is network design. Here we deal with a new variant of the DCMST problem, which consists of finding not only the degree- but also the role-constrained minimum spanning tree (DRCMST), i.e., we add constraints to restrict the role of the nodes in the tree to root, intermediate or leaf node. Furthermore, we do not limit the number of root nodes to one, thereby, generally, building a forest of DRCMSTs. The modeling of network design problems can benefit from the possibility of generating more than one tree and determining the role of the nodes in the network. We propose a novel permutation-based representation to encode these forests. In this new representation, one permutation simultaneously encodes all the trees to be built. We simulate a wide variety of DRCMST problems which we optimize using eight different evolutionary computation algorithms encoding individuals of the population using the proposed representation. The algorithms we use are: estimation of distribution algorithm, generational genetic algorithm, steady-state genetic algorithm, covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy, differential evolution, elitist evolution strategy, non-elitist evolution strategy and particle swarm optimization. The best results are for the estimation of distribution algorithms and both types of genetic algorithms, although the genetic algorithms are significantly faster.

Enhancing Guideline-based decision support with distributed computation through local mobile application

We introduce the need for a distributed guideline-based decision sup-port (DSS) process, describe its characteristics, and explain how we implement-ed this process within the European Union?s MobiGuide project. In particular, we have developed a mechanism of sequential, piecemeal projection, i.e., 'downloading' small portions of the guideline from the central DSS server, to the local DSS in the patient's mobile device, which then applies that portion, us-ing the mobile device's local resources. The mobile device sends a callback to the central DSS when it encounters a triggering pattern predefined in the pro-jected module, which leads to an appropriate predefined action by the central DSS, including sending a new projected module, or directly controlling the rest of the workflow. We suggest that such a distributed architecture that explicitly defines a dialog between a central DSS server and a local DSS module, better balances the computational load and exploits the relative advantages of the cen-tral server and of the local mobile device.

Low Work-Function Thermionic Emission and Orbital-Motion-Limited Ion Collection at Bare-Tether Cathodic Contact

Una amarra electrodinámica (electrodynamic tether) opera sobre principios electromagnéticos intercambiando momento con la magnetosfera planetaria e interactuando con su ionosfera. Es un subsistema pasivo fiable para desorbitar etapas de cohetes agotadas y satélites al final de su misión, mitigando el crecimiento de la basura espacial. Una amarra sin aislamiento captura electrones del plasma ambiente a lo largo de su segmento polarizado positivamente, el cual puede alcanzar varios kilómetros de longitud, mientras que emite electrones de vuelta al plasma mediante un contactor de plasma activo de baja impedancia en su extremo catódico, tal como un cátodo hueco (hollow cathode). En ausencia de un contactor catódico activo, la corriente que circula por una amarra desnuda en órbita es nula en ambos extremos de la amarra y se dice que ésta está flotando eléctricamente. Para emisión termoiónica despreciable y captura de corriente en condiciones limitadas por movimiento orbital (orbital-motion-limited, OML), el cociente entre las longitudes de los segmentos anódico y catódico es muy pequeño debido a la disparidad de masas entre iones y electrones. Tal modo de operación resulta en una corriente media y fuerza de Lorentz bajas en la amarra, la cual es poco eficiente como dispositivo para desorbitar. El electride C12A7 : e−, que podría presentar una función de trabajo (work function) tan baja como W = 0.6 eV y un comportamiento estable a temperaturas relativamente altas, ha sido propuesto como recubrimiento para amarras desnudas. La emisión termoiónica a lo largo de un segmento así recubierto y bajo el calentamiento de la operación espacial, puede ser más eficiente que la captura iónica. En el modo más simple de fuerza de frenado, podría eliminar la necesidad de un contactor catódico activo y su correspondientes requisitos de alimentación de gas y subsistema de potencia, lo que resultaría en un sistema real de amarra “sin combustible”. Con este recubrimiento de bajo W, cada segmento elemental del segmento catódico de una amarra desnuda de kilómetros de longitud emitiría corriente como si fuese parte de una sonda cilíndrica, caliente y uniformemente polarizada al potencial local de la amarra. La operación es similar a la de una sonda de Langmuir 2D tanto en los segmentos catódico como anódico. Sin embargo, en presencia de emisión, los electrones emitidos resultan en carga espacial (space charge) negativa, la cual reduce el campo eléctrico que los acelera hacia fuera, o incluso puede desacelerarlos y hacerlos volver a la sonda. Se forma una doble vainas (double sheath) estable con electrones emitidos desde la sonda e iones provenientes del plasma ambiente. La densidad de corriente termoiónica, variando a lo largo del segmento catódico, podría seguir dos leyes distintas bajo diferentes condiciones: (i) la ley de corriente limitada por la carga espacial (space-charge-limited, SCL) o (ii) la ley de Richardson-Dushman (RDS). Se presenta un estudio preliminar sobre la corriente SCL frente a una sonda emisora usando la teoría de vainas (sheath) formada por la captura iónica en condiciones OML, y la corriente electrónica SCL entre los electrodos cilíndricos según Langmuir. El modelo, que incluye efectos óhmicos y el efecto de transición de emisión SCL a emisión RDS, proporciona los perfiles de corriente y potencial a lo largo de la longitud completa de la amarra. El análisis muestra que en el modo más simple de fuerza de frenado, bajo condiciones orbitales y de amarras típicas, la emisión termoiónica proporciona un contacto catódico eficiente y resulta en una sección catódica pequeña. En el análisis anterior, tanto la transición de emisión SCL a RD como la propia ley de emisión SCL consiste en un modelo muy simplificado. Por ello, a continuación se ha estudiado con detalle la solución de vaina estacionaria de una sonda con emisión termoiónica polarizada negativamente respecto a un plasma isotrópico, no colisional y sin campo magnético. La existencia de posibles partículas atrapadas ha sido ignorada y el estudio incluye tanto un estudio semi-analítico mediante técnica asintóticas como soluciones numéricas completas del problema. Bajo las tres condiciones (i) alto potencial, (ii) R = Rmax para la validez de la captura iónica OML, y (iii) potencial monotónico, se desarrolla un análisis asintótico auto-consistente para la estructura de plasma compleja que contiene las tres especies de cargas (electrones e iones del plasma, electrones emitidos), y cuatro regiones espaciales distintas, utilizando teorías de movimiento orbital y modelos cinéticos de las especies. Aunque los electrones emitidos presentan carga espacial despreciable muy lejos de la sonda, su efecto no se puede despreciar en el análisis global de la estructura de la vaina y de dos capas finas entre la vaina y la región cuasi-neutra. El análisis proporciona las condiciones paramétricas para que la corriente sea SCL. También muestra que la emisión termoiónica aumenta el radio máximo de la sonda para operar dentro del régimen OML y que la emisión de electrones es mucho más eficiente que la captura iónica para el segmento catódico de la amarra. En el código numérico, los movimientos orbitales de las tres especies son modelados para potenciales tanto monotónico como no-monotónico, y sonda de radio R arbitrario (dentro o más allá del régimen de OML para la captura iónica). Aprovechando la existencia de dos invariante, el sistema de ecuaciones Poisson-Vlasov se escribe como una ecuación integro-diferencial, la cual se discretiza mediante un método de diferencias finitas. El sistema de ecuaciones algebraicas no lineal resultante se ha resuelto de con un método Newton-Raphson paralelizado. Los resultados, comparados satisfactoriamente con el análisis analítico, proporcionan la emisión de corriente y la estructura del plasma y del potencial electrostático. ABSTRACT An electrodynamic tether operates on electromagnetic principles and exchanges momentum through the planetary magnetosphere, by continuously interacting with the ionosphere. It is a reliable passive subsystem to deorbit spent rocket stages and satellites at its end of mission, mitigating the growth of orbital debris. A tether left bare of insulation collects electrons by its own uninsulated and positively biased segment with kilometer range, while electrons are emitted by a low-impedance active device at the cathodic end, such as a hollow cathode, to emit the full electron current. In the absence of an active cathodic device, the current flowing along an orbiting bare tether vanishes at both ends and the tether is said to be electrically floating. For negligible thermionic emission and orbital-motion-limited (OML) collection throughout the entire tether (electron/ion collection at anodic/cathodic segment, respectively), the anodic-to-cathodic length ratio is very small due to ions being much heavier, which results in low average current and Lorentz drag. The electride C12A7 : e−, which might present a possible work function as low as W = 0.6 eV and moderately high temperature stability, has been proposed as coating for floating bare tethers. Thermionic emission along a thus coated cathodic segment, under heating in space operation, can be more efficient than ion collection and, in the simplest drag mode, may eliminate the need for an active cathodic device and its corresponding gas-feed requirements and power subsystem, which would result in a truly “propellant-less” tether system. With this low-W coating, each elemental segment on the cathodic segment of a kilometers-long floating bare-tether would emit current as if it were part of a hot cylindrical probe uniformly polarized at the local tether bias, under 2D probe conditions that are also applied to the anodic-segment analysis. In the presence of emission, emitted electrons result in negative space charge, which decreases the electric field that accelerates them outwards, or even reverses it, decelerating electrons near the emitting probe. A double sheath would be established with electrons being emitted from the probe and ions coming from the ambient plasma. The thermionic current density, varying along the cathodic segment, might follow two distinct laws under different con ditions: i) space-charge-limited (SCL) emission or ii) full Richardson-Dushman (RDS) emission. A preliminary study on the SCL current in front of an emissive probe is presented using the orbital-motion-limited (OML) ion-collection sheath and Langmuir’s SCL electron current between cylindrical electrodes. A detailed calculation of current and bias profiles along the entire tether length is carried out with ohmic effects considered and the transition from SCL to full RDS emission is included. Analysis shows that in the simplest drag mode, under typical orbital and tether conditions, thermionic emission provides efficient cathodic contact and leads to a short cathodic section. In the previous analysis, both the transition between SCL and RDS emission and the current law for SCL condition have used a very simple model. To continue, considering an isotropic, unmagnetized, colissionless plasma and a stationary sheath, the probe-plasma contact is studied in detail for a negatively biased probe with thermionic emission. The possible trapped particles are ignored and this study includes both semianalytical solutions using asymptotic analysis and complete numerical solutions. Under conditions of i) high bias, ii) R = Rmax for ion OML collection validity, and iii) monotonic potential, a self-consistent asymptotic analysis is carried out for the complex plasma structure involving all three charge species (plasma electrons and ions, and emitted electrons) and four distinct spatial regions using orbital motion theories and kinetic modeling of the species. Although emitted electrons present negligible space charge far away from the probe, their effect cannot be neglected in the global analysis for the sheath structure and two thin layers in between the sheath and the quasineutral region. The parametric conditions for the current to be space-chargelimited are obtained. It is found that thermionic emission increases the range of probe radius for OML validity and is greatly more effective than ion collection for cathodic contact of tethers. In the numerical code, the orbital motions of all three species are modeled for both monotonic and non-monotonic potential, and for any probe radius R (within or beyond OML regime for ion collection). Taking advantage of two constants of motion (energy and angular momentum), the Poisson-Vlasov equation is described by an integro differential equation, which is discretized using finite difference method. The non-linear algebraic equations are solved using a parallel implementation of the Newton-Raphson method. The results, which show good agreement with the analytical results, provide the results for thermionic current, the sheath structure, and the electrostatic potential.

Study and analysis of the Leap Motion sensor and the Software Development Kit (SDK) for the implementation of visual Human Computer Interfaces

En este proyecto, se presenta un informe técnico sobre la cámara Leap Motion y el Software Development Kit correspondiente, el cual es un dispositivo con una cámara de profundidad orientada a interfaces hombre-máquina. Esto es realizado con el propósito de desarrollar una interfaz hombre-máquina basada en un sistema de reconocimiento de gestos de manos. Después de un exhaustivo estudio de la cámara Leap Motion, se han realizado diversos programas de ejemplo con la intención de verificar las capacidades descritas en el informe técnico, poniendo a prueba la Application Programming Interface y evaluando la precisión de las diferentes medidas obtenidas sobre los datos de la cámara. Finalmente, se desarrolla un prototipo de un sistema de reconocimiento de gestos. Los datos sobre la posición y orientación de la punta de los dedos obtenidos de la Leap Motion son usados para describir un gesto mediante un vector descriptor, el cual es enviado a una Máquina Vectores Soporte, utilizada como clasificador multi-clase.

Robust Real-time Vision-based Aircraft Tracking From Unmanned Aerial Vehicles.

Aircraft tracking plays a key and important role in the Sense-and-Avoid system of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). This paper presents a novel robust visual tracking algorithm for UAVs in the midair to track an arbitrary aircraft at real-time frame rates, together with a unique evaluation system. This visual algorithm mainly consists of adaptive discriminative visual tracking method, Multiple-Instance (MI) learning approach, Multiple-Classifier (MC) voting mechanism and Multiple-Resolution (MR) representation strategy, that is called Adaptive M3 tracker, i.e. AM3. In this tracker, the importance of test sample has been integrated to improve the tracking stability, accuracy and real-time performances. The experimental results show that this algorithm is more robust, efficient and accurate against the existing state-of-art trackers, overcoming the problems generated by the challenging situations such as obvious appearance change, variant surrounding illumination, partial aircraft occlusion, blur motion, rapid pose variation and onboard mechanical vibration, low computation capacity and delayed information communication between UAVs and Ground Station (GS). To our best knowledge, this is the first work to present this tracker for solving online learning and tracking freewill aircraft/intruder in the UAVs.

Use of Biological Motion based Cues and Ecological Sounds in the Neurorehabilitation of Apraxia

Technological progress in the area of informatics and human interface platforms create a window of opportunities for the neurorehablitation of patients with motor impairments. The CogWatch project (www.cogwatch.eu) aims to create an intelligent assistance system to improve motor planning and execution in patients with apraxia during their daily activities. Due to the brain damage caused by cardiovascular incident these patients suffer from impairments in the ability to use tools, and to sequence actions during daily tasks (such as making breakfast). Based on the common coding theory (Hommel et al., 2001) and mirror neuron primate research (Rizzolatti et al., 2001) we aim to explore use of cues, which incorporate aspects of biological motion from healthy adults performing everyday tasks requiring tool use and ecological sounds linked to the action goal. We hypothesize that patients with apraxia will benefit from supplementary sensory information relevant to the task, which will reinforce the selection of the appropriate motor plan. Findings from this study determine the type of sensory guidance in the CogWatch interface. Rationale for the experimental design is presented and the relevant literature is discussed.

I.A.S.S. Symposium on Practical Aspects in the Computation on Shell and Spatial Structures

This work is the outcome of the interest that the Board of Executives of the lASS showed on the papers presented at the lASS-Symposium in Osaka (1986)

Methodologies for Collision Risk Computation = Metodologías para Cálculo de Riesgo de Colisión

Esta tesis aborda metodologías para el cálculo de riesgo de colisión de satélites. La minimización del riesgo de colisión se debe abordar desde dos puntos de vista distintos. Desde el punto de vista operacional, es necesario filtrar los objetos que pueden presentar un encuentro entre todos los objetos que comparten el espacio con un satélite operacional. Puesto que las órbitas, del objeto operacional y del objeto envuelto en la colisión, no se conocen perfectamente, la geometría del encuentro y el riesgo de colisión deben ser evaluados. De acuerdo con dicha geometría o riesgo, una maniobra evasiva puede ser necesaria para evitar la colisión. Dichas maniobras implican un consumo de combustible que impacta en la capacidad de mantenimiento orbital y por tanto de la visa útil del satélite. Por tanto, el combustible necesario a lo largo de la vida útil de un satélite debe ser estimado en fase de diseño de la misión para una correcta definición de su vida útil, especialmente para satélites orbitando en regímenes orbitales muy poblados. Los dos aspectos, diseño de misión y aspectos operacionales en relación con el riesgo de colisión están abordados en esta tesis y se resumen en la Figura 3. En relación con los aspectos relacionados con el diseño de misión (parte inferior de la figura), es necesario evaluar estadísticamente las características de de la población espacial y las teorías que permiten calcular el número medio de eventos encontrados por una misión y su capacidad de reducir riesgo de colisión. Estos dos aspectos definen los procedimientos más apropiados para reducir el riesgo de colisión en fase operacional. Este aspecto es abordado, comenzando por la teoría descrita en [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2006]T.14 e implementada por el autor de esta tesis en la herramienta ARES [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2004b]T.15 proporcionada por ESA para la evaluación de estrategias de evitación de colisión. Esta teoría es extendida en esta tesis para considerar las características de los datos orbitales disponibles en las fases operacionales de un satélite (sección 4.3.3). Además, esta teoría se ha extendido para considerar riesgo máximo de colisión cuando la incertidumbre de las órbitas de objetos catalogados no es conocida (como se da el caso para los TLE), y en el caso de querer sólo considerar riesgo de colisión catastrófico (sección 4.3.2.3). Dichas mejoras se han incluido en la nueva versión de ARES [Domínguez-González and Sánchez-Ortiz, 2012b]T.12 puesta a disposición a través de [SDUP,2014]R.60. En fase operacional, los catálogos que proporcionan datos orbitales de los objetos espaciales, son procesados rutinariamente, para identificar posibles encuentros que se analizan en base a algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión para proponer maniobras de evasión. Actualmente existe una única fuente de datos públicos, el catálogo TLE (de sus siglas en inglés, Two Line Elements). Además, el Joint Space Operation Center (JSpOC) Americano proporciona mensajes con alertas de colisión (CSM) cuando el sistema de vigilancia americano identifica un posible encuentro. En función de los datos usados en fase operacional (TLE o CSM), la estrategia de evitación puede ser diferente debido a las características de dicha información. Es preciso conocer las principales características de los datos disponibles (respecto a la precisión de los datos orbitales) para estimar los posibles eventos de colisión encontrados por un satélite a lo largo de su vida útil. En caso de los TLE, cuya precisión orbital no es proporcionada, la información de precisión orbital derivada de un análisis estadístico se puede usar también en el proceso operacional así como en el diseño de la misión. En caso de utilizar CSM como base de las operaciones de evitación de colisiones, se conoce la precisión orbital de los dos objetos involucrados. Estas características se han analizado en detalle, evaluando estadísticamente las características de ambos tipos de datos. Una vez concluido dicho análisis, se ha analizado el impacto de utilizar TLE o CSM en las operaciones del satélite (sección 5.1). Este análisis se ha publicado en una revista especializada [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015b]T.3. En dicho análisis, se proporcionan recomendaciones para distintas misiones (tamaño del satélite y régimen orbital) en relación con las estrategias de evitación de colisión para reducir el riesgo de colisión de manera significativa. Por ejemplo, en el caso de un satélite en órbita heliosíncrona en régimen orbital LEO, el valor típico del ACPL que se usa de manera extendida es 10-4. Este valor no es adecuado cuando los esquemas de evitación de colisión se realizan sobre datos TLE. En este caso, la capacidad de reducción de riesgo es prácticamente nula (debido a las grandes incertidumbres de los datos TLE) incluso para tiempos cortos de predicción. Para conseguir una reducción significativa del riesgo, sería necesario usar un ACPL en torno a 10-6 o inferior, produciendo unas 10 alarmas al año por satélite (considerando predicciones a un día) o 100 alarmas al año (con predicciones a tres días). Por tanto, la principal conclusión es la falta de idoneidad de los datos TLE para el cálculo de eventos de colisión. Al contrario, usando los datos CSM, debido a su mejor precisión orbital, se puede obtener una reducción significativa del riesgo con ACPL en torno a 10-4 (considerando 3 días de predicción). Incluso 5 días de predicción pueden ser considerados con ACPL en torno a 10-5. Incluso tiempos de predicción más largos se pueden usar (7 días) con reducción del 90% del riesgo y unas 5 alarmas al año (en caso de predicciones de 5 días, el número de maniobras se mantiene en unas 2 al año). La dinámica en GEO es diferente al caso LEO y hace que el crecimiento de las incertidumbres orbitales con el tiempo de propagación sea menor. Por el contrario, las incertidumbres derivadas de la determinación orbital son peores que en LEO por las diferencias en las capacidades de observación de uno y otro régimen orbital. Además, se debe considerar que los tiempos de predicción considerados para LEO pueden no ser apropiados para el caso de un satélite GEO (puesto que tiene un periodo orbital mayor). En este caso usando datos TLE, una reducción significativa del riesgo sólo se consigue con valores pequeños de ACPL, produciendo una alarma por año cuando los eventos de colisión se predicen a un día vista (tiempo muy corto para implementar maniobras de evitación de colisión).Valores más adecuados de ACPL se encuentran entre 5•10-8 y 10-7, muy por debajo de los valores usados en las operaciones actuales de la mayoría de las misiones GEO (de nuevo, no se recomienda en este régimen orbital basar las estrategias de evitación de colisión en TLE). Los datos CSM permiten una reducción de riesgo apropiada con ACPL entre 10-5 y 10-4 con tiempos de predicción cortos y medios (10-5 se recomienda para predicciones a 5 o 7 días). El número de maniobras realizadas sería una en 10 años de misión. Se debe notar que estos cálculos están realizados para un satélite de unos 2 metros de radio. En el futuro, otros sistemas de vigilancia espacial (como el programa SSA de la ESA), proporcionarán catálogos adicionales de objetos espaciales con el objetivo de reducir el riesgo de colisión de los satélites. Para definir dichos sistemas de vigilancia, es necesario identificar las prestaciones del catalogo en función de la reducción de riesgo que se pretende conseguir. Las características del catálogo que afectan principalmente a dicha capacidad son la cobertura (número de objetos incluidos en el catalogo, limitado principalmente por el tamaño mínimo de los objetos en función de las limitaciones de los sensores utilizados) y la precisión de los datos orbitales (derivada de las prestaciones de los sensores en relación con la precisión de las medidas y la capacidad de re-observación de los objetos). El resultado de dicho análisis (sección 5.2) se ha publicado en una revista especializada [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015a]T.2. Este análisis no estaba inicialmente previsto durante la tesis, y permite mostrar como la teoría descrita en esta tesis, inicialmente definida para facilitar el diseño de misiones (parte superior de la figura 1) se ha extendido y se puede aplicar para otros propósitos como el dimensionado de un sistema de vigilancia espacial (parte inferior de la figura 1). La principal diferencia de los dos análisis se basa en considerar las capacidades de catalogación (precisión y tamaño de objetos observados) como una variable a modificar en el caso de un diseño de un sistema de vigilancia), siendo fijas en el caso de un diseño de misión. En el caso de las salidas generadas en el análisis, todos los aspectos calculados en un análisis estadístico de riesgo de colisión son importantes para diseño de misión (con el objetivo de calcular la estrategia de evitación y la cantidad de combustible a utilizar), mientras que en el caso de un diseño de un sistema de vigilancia, los aspectos más importantes son el número de maniobras y falsas alarmas (fiabilidad del sistema) y la capacidad de reducción de riesgo (efectividad del sistema). Adicionalmente, un sistema de vigilancia espacial debe ser caracterizado por su capacidad de evitar colisiones catastróficas (evitando así in incremento dramático de la población de basura espacial), mientras que el diseño de una misión debe considerar todo tipo de encuentros, puesto que un operador está interesado en evitar tanto las colisiones catastróficas como las letales. Del análisis de las prestaciones (tamaño de objetos a catalogar y precisión orbital) requeridas a un sistema de vigilancia espacial se concluye que ambos aspectos han de ser fijados de manera diferente para los distintos regímenes orbitales. En el caso de LEO se hace necesario observar objetos de hasta 5cm de radio, mientras que en GEO se rebaja este requisito hasta los 100 cm para cubrir las colisiones catastróficas. La razón principal para esta diferencia viene de las diferentes velocidades relativas entre los objetos en ambos regímenes orbitales. En relación con la precisión orbital, ésta ha de ser muy buena en LEO para poder reducir el número de falsas alarmas, mientras que en regímenes orbitales más altos se pueden considerar precisiones medias. En relación con los aspectos operaciones de la determinación de riesgo de colisión, existen varios algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo entre dos objetos espaciales. La Figura 2 proporciona un resumen de los casos en cuanto a algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión y como se abordan en esta tesis. Normalmente se consideran objetos esféricos para simplificar el cálculo de riesgo (caso A). Este caso está ampliamente abordado en la literatura y no se analiza en detalle en esta tesis. Un caso de ejemplo se proporciona en la sección 4.2. Considerar la forma real de los objetos (caso B) permite calcular el riesgo de una manera más precisa. Un nuevo algoritmo es definido en esta tesis para calcular el riesgo de colisión cuando al menos uno de los objetos se considera complejo (sección 4.4.2). Dicho algoritmo permite calcular el riesgo de colisión para objetos formados por un conjunto de cajas, y se ha presentado en varias conferencias internacionales. Para evaluar las prestaciones de dicho algoritmo, sus resultados se han comparado con un análisis de Monte Carlo que se ha definido para considerar colisiones entre cajas de manera adecuada (sección 4.1.2.3), pues la búsqueda de colisiones simples aplicables para objetos esféricos no es aplicable a este caso. Este análisis de Monte Carlo se considera la verdad a la hora de calcular los resultados del algoritmos, dicha comparativa se presenta en la sección 4.4.4. En el caso de satélites que no se pueden considerar esféricos, el uso de un modelo de la geometría del satélite permite descartar eventos que no son colisiones reales o estimar con mayor precisión el riesgo asociado a un evento. El uso de estos algoritmos con geometrías complejas es más relevante para objetos de dimensiones grandes debido a las prestaciones de precisión orbital actuales. En el futuro, si los sistemas de vigilancia mejoran y las órbitas son conocidas con mayor precisión, la importancia de considerar la geometría real de los satélites será cada vez más relevante. La sección 5.4 presenta un ejemplo para un sistema de grandes dimensiones (satélite con un tether). Adicionalmente, si los dos objetos involucrados en la colisión tienen velocidad relativa baja (y geometría simple, Caso C en la Figura 2), la mayor parte de los algoritmos no son aplicables requiriendo implementaciones dedicadas para este caso particular. En esta tesis, uno de estos algoritmos presentado en la literatura [Patera, 2001]R.26 se ha analizado para determinar su idoneidad en distintos tipos de eventos (sección 4.5). La evaluación frete a un análisis de Monte Carlo se proporciona en la sección 4.5.2. Tras este análisis, se ha considerado adecuado para abordar las colisiones de baja velocidad. En particular, se ha concluido que el uso de algoritmos dedicados para baja velocidad son necesarios en función del tamaño del volumen de colisión proyectado en el plano de encuentro (B-plane) y del tamaño de la incertidumbre asociada al vector posición entre los dos objetos. Para incertidumbres grandes, estos algoritmos se hacen más necesarios pues la duración del intervalo en que los elipsoides de error de los dos objetos pueden intersecar es mayor. Dicho algoritmo se ha probado integrando el algoritmo de colisión para objetos con geometrías complejas. El resultado de dicho análisis muestra que este algoritmo puede ser extendido fácilmente para considerar diferentes tipos de algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión (sección 4.5.3). Ambos algoritmos, junto con el método Monte Carlo para geometrías complejas, se han implementado en la herramienta operacional de la ESA CORAM, que es utilizada para evaluar el riesgo de colisión en las actividades rutinarias de los satélites operados por ESA [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013a]T.11. Este hecho muestra el interés y relevancia de los algoritmos desarrollados para la mejora de las operaciones de los satélites. Dichos algoritmos han sido presentados en varias conferencias internacionales [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013b]T.9, [Pulido, 2014]T.7,[Grande-Olalla, 2013]T.10, [Pulido, 2014]T.5, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015c]T.1. ABSTRACT This document addresses methodologies for computation of the collision risk of a satellite. Two different approaches need to be considered for collision risk minimisation. On an operational basis, it is needed to perform a sieve of possible objects approaching the satellite, among all objects sharing the space with an operational satellite. As the orbits of both, satellite and the eventual collider, are not perfectly known but only estimated, the miss-encounter geometry and the actual risk of collision shall be evaluated. In the basis of the encounter geometry or the risk, an eventual manoeuvre may be required to avoid the conjunction. Those manoeuvres will be associated to a reduction in the fuel for the mission orbit maintenance, and thus, may reduce the satellite operational lifetime. Thus, avoidance manoeuvre fuel budget shall be estimated, at mission design phase, for a better estimation of mission lifetime, especially for those satellites orbiting in very populated orbital regimes. These two aspects, mission design and operational collision risk aspects, are summarised in Figure 3, and covered along this thesis. Bottom part of the figure identifies the aspects to be consider for the mission design phase (statistical characterisation of the space object population data and theory computing the mean number of events and risk reduction capability) which will define the most appropriate collision avoidance approach at mission operational phase. This part is covered in this work by starting from the theory described in [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2006]T.14 and implemented by this author in ARES tool [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2004b]T.15 provided by ESA for evaluation of collision avoidance approaches. This methodology has been now extended to account for the particular features of the available data sets in operational environment (section 4.3.3). Additionally, the formulation has been extended to allow evaluating risk computation approached when orbital uncertainty is not available (like the TLE case) and when only catastrophic collisions are subject to study (section 4.3.2.3). These improvements to the theory have been included in the new version of ESA ARES tool [Domínguez-González and Sánchez-Ortiz, 2012b]T.12 and available through [SDUP,2014]R.60. At the operation phase, the real catalogue data will be processed on a routine basis, with adequate collision risk computation algorithms to propose conjunction avoidance manoeuvre optimised for every event. The optimisation of manoeuvres in an operational basis is not approached along this document. Currently, American Two Line Element (TLE) catalogue is the only public source of data providing orbits of objects in space to identify eventual conjunction events. Additionally, Conjunction Summary Message (CSM) is provided by Joint Space Operation Center (JSpOC) when the American system identifies a possible collision among satellites and debris. Depending on the data used for collision avoidance evaluation, the conjunction avoidance approach may be different. The main features of currently available data need to be analysed (in regards to accuracy) in order to perform estimation of eventual encounters to be found along the mission lifetime. In the case of TLE, as these data is not provided with accuracy information, operational collision avoidance may be also based on statistical accuracy information as the one used in the mission design approach. This is not the case for CSM data, which includes the state vector and orbital accuracy of the two involved objects. This aspect has been analysed in detail and is depicted in the document, evaluating in statistical way the characteristics of both data sets in regards to the main aspects related to collision avoidance. Once the analysis of data set was completed, investigations on the impact of those features in the most convenient avoidance approaches have been addressed (section 5.1). This analysis is published in a peer-reviewed journal [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015b]T.3. The analysis provides recommendations for different mission types (satellite size and orbital regime) in regards to the most appropriate collision avoidance approach for relevant risk reduction. The risk reduction capability is very much dependent on the accuracy of the catalogue utilized to identify eventual collisions. Approaches based on CSM data are recommended against the TLE based approach. Some approaches based on the maximum risk associated to envisaged encounters are demonstrated to report a very large number of events, which makes the approach not suitable for operational activities. Accepted Collision Probability Levels are recommended for the definition of the avoidance strategies for different mission types. For example for the case of a LEO satellite in the Sun-synchronous regime, the typically used ACPL value of 10-4 is not a suitable value for collision avoidance schemes based on TLE data. In this case the risk reduction capacity is almost null (due to the large uncertainties associated to TLE data sets, even for short time-to-event values). For significant reduction of risk when using TLE data, ACPL on the order of 10-6 (or lower) seems to be required, producing about 10 warnings per year and mission (if one-day ahead events are considered) or 100 warnings per year (for three-days ahead estimations). Thus, the main conclusion from these results is the lack of feasibility of TLE for a proper collision avoidance approach. On the contrary, for CSM data, and due to the better accuracy of the orbital information when compared with TLE, ACPL on the order of 10-4 allows to significantly reduce the risk. This is true for events estimated up to 3 days ahead. Even 5 days ahead events can be considered, but ACPL values down to 10-5 should be considered in such case. Even larger prediction times can be considered (7 days) for risk reduction about 90%, at the cost of larger number of warnings up to 5 events per year, when 5 days prediction allows to keep the manoeuvre rate in 2 manoeuvres per year. Dynamics of the GEO orbits is different to that in LEO, impacting on a lower increase of orbits uncertainty along time. On the contrary, uncertainties at short prediction times at this orbital regime are larger than those at LEO due to the differences in observation capabilities. Additionally, it has to be accounted that short prediction times feasible at LEO may not be appropriate for a GEO mission due to the orbital period being much larger at this regime. In the case of TLE data sets, significant reduction of risk is only achieved for small ACPL values, producing about a warning event per year if warnings are raised one day in advance to the event (too short for any reaction to be considered). Suitable ACPL values would lay in between 5•10-8 and 10-7, well below the normal values used in current operations for most of the GEO missions (TLE-based strategies for collision avoidance at this regime are not recommended). On the contrary, CSM data allows a good reduction of risk with ACPL in between 10-5 and 10-4 for short and medium prediction times. 10-5 is recommended for prediction times of five or seven days. The number of events raised for a suitable warning time of seven days would be about one in a 10-year mission. It must be noted, that these results are associated to a 2 m radius spacecraft, impact of the satellite size are also analysed within the thesis. In the future, other Space Situational Awareness Systems (SSA, ESA program) may provide additional catalogues of objects in space with the aim of reducing the risk. It is needed to investigate which are the required performances of those catalogues for allowing such risk reduction. The main performance aspects are coverage (objects included in the catalogue, mainly limited by a minimum object size derived from sensor performances) and the accuracy of the orbital data to accurately evaluate the conjunctions (derived from sensor performance in regards to object observation frequency and accuracy). The results of these investigations (section 5.2) are published in a peer-reviewed journal [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015a]T.2. This aspect was not initially foreseen as objective of the thesis, but it shows how the theory described in the thesis, initially defined for mission design in regards to avoidance manoeuvre fuel allocation (upper part of figure 1), is extended and serves for additional purposes as dimensioning a Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) system (bottom part of figure below). The main difference between the two approaches is the consideration of the catalogue features as part of the theory which are not modified (for the satellite mission design case) instead of being an input for the analysis (in the case of the SST design). In regards to the outputs, all the features computed by the statistical conjunction analysis are of importance for mission design (with the objective of proper global avoidance strategy definition and fuel allocation), whereas for the case of SST design, the most relevant aspects are the manoeuvre and false alarm rates (defining a reliable system) and the Risk Reduction capability (driving the effectiveness of the system). In regards to the methodology for computing the risk, the SST system shall be driven by the capacity of providing the means to avoid catastrophic conjunction events (avoiding the dramatic increase of the population), whereas the satellite mission design should consider all type of encounters, as the operator is interested on avoiding both lethal and catastrophic collisions. From the analysis of the SST features (object coverage and orbital uncertainty) for a reliable system, it is concluded that those two characteristics are to be imposed differently for the different orbital regimes, as the population level is different depending on the orbit type. Coverage values range from 5 cm for very populated LEO regime up to 100 cm in the case of GEO region. The difference on this requirement derives mainly from the relative velocity of the encounters at those regimes. Regarding the orbital knowledge of the catalogues, very accurate information is required for objects in the LEO region in order to limit the number of false alarms, whereas intermediate orbital accuracy can be considered for higher orbital regimes. In regards to the operational collision avoidance approaches, several collision risk algorithms are used for evaluation of collision risk of two pair of objects. Figure 2 provides a summary of the different collision risk algorithm cases and indicates how they are covered along this document. The typical case with high relative velocity is well covered in literature for the case of spherical objects (case A), with a large number of available algorithms, that are not analysed in detailed in this work. Only a sample case is provided in section 4.2. If complex geometries are considered (Case B), a more realistic risk evaluation can be computed. New approach for the evaluation of risk in the case of complex geometries is presented in this thesis (section 4.4.2), and it has been presented in several international conferences. The developed algorithm allows evaluating the risk for complex objects formed by a set of boxes. A dedicated Monte Carlo method has also been described (section 4.1.2.3) and implemented to allow the evaluation of the actual collisions among a large number of simulation shots. This Monte Carlo runs are considered the truth for comparison of the algorithm results (section 4.4.4). For spacecrafts that cannot be considered as spheres, the consideration of the real geometry of the objects may allow to discard events which are not real conjunctions, or estimate with larger reliability the risk associated to the event. This is of particular importance for the case of large spacecrafts as the uncertainty in positions of actual catalogues does not reach small values to make a difference for the case of objects below meter size. As the tracking systems improve and the orbits of catalogued objects are known more precisely, the importance of considering actual shapes of the objects will become more relevant. The particular case of a very large system (as a tethered satellite) is analysed in section 5.4. Additionally, if the two colliding objects have low relative velocity (and simple geometries, case C in figure above), the most common collision risk algorithms fail and adequate theories need to be applied. In this document, a low relative velocity algorithm presented in the literature [Patera, 2001]R.26 is described and evaluated (section 4.5). Evaluation through comparison with Monte Carlo approach is provided in section 4.5.2. The main conclusion of this analysis is the suitability of this algorithm for the most common encounter characteristics, and thus it is selected as adequate for collision risk estimation. Its performances are evaluated in order to characterise when it can be safely used for a large variety of encounter characteristics. In particular, it is found that the need of using dedicated algorithms depend on both the size of collision volume in the B-plane and the miss-distance uncertainty. For large uncertainties, the need of such algorithms is more relevant since for small uncertainties the encounter duration where the covariance ellipsoids intersect is smaller. Additionally, its application for the case of complex satellite geometries is assessed (case D in figure above) by integrating the developed algorithm in this thesis with Patera’s formulation for low relative velocity encounters. The results of this analysis show that the algorithm can be easily extended for collision risk estimation process suitable for complex geometry objects (section 4.5.3). The two algorithms, together with the Monte Carlo method, have been implemented in the operational tool CORAM for ESA which is used for the evaluation of collision risk of ESA operated missions, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013a]T.11. This fact shows the interest and relevance of the developed algorithms for improvement of satellite operations. The algorithms have been presented in several international conferences, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013b]T.9, [Pulido, 2014]T.7,[Grande-Olalla, 2013]T.10, [Pulido, 2014]T.5, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015c]T.1.