Time-varying Risk Premiums and Conditional Market Risk: Empirical Evidence from European Stock Markets

This study investigates the relationship between the time-varying risk premiums and conditional market risk in the stock markets of the ten member countries of Economy and Monetary Union. Second, it examines whether the conditional second moments change over time and are there asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix. Third, it analyzes the possible effects of the chosen testing framework. Empirical analysis is conducted using asymmetric univariate and multivariate GARCH-in-mean models and assuming three different degrees of market integration. For a daily sample period from 1999 to 2007, the study shows that the time-varying market risk alone is not enough to explain the dynamics of risk premiums and indications are found that the market risk is detected only when its price is allowed to change over time. Also asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix, which is found to be time-varying, are clearly present and should be recognized in empirical asset pricing analyses.

Characterization of Microparticle Retention Systems with Retention Process Analyzer

In the literature survey retention mechanisms, factors effecting retention and microparticles were studied. Also commercial microparticle retention systems and means to measure retention were studied. Optical retention measurement with RPA and Lasentec FBRM was studied. The experimental part contains study of different cationic polyacrylamides, anionic silica, bentonite and new generation micropolymer. In these studies the dosage, dosing order and dosing history were changing factors. The experimental work was done with RPA-apparatus with which, the retention process can be followed in real time. In testing was found that silica yielded better retention, when dosed nontraditionally before the polymer. Also silica was very dependant on the polymer dosage. With bentonite good colloidal retention was achieved with relatively low doses. Unlike silica bentonite was not dependant on polymer dosage. The relation of bentonite and polymer dosage is more defining when high retention is wanted. With 3-component systems using bentonite very high retention was achieved. With silica no improvement in retention was found in 3-component systems compared to dual component systems.

Flow analysis by using solenoid valves for As(III) determination in natural waters by an on-line separation and pre-concentration system coupled to a tungsten coil atomizer

A flow system coupled to a tungsten coil atomizer in an atomic absorption spectrometer (TCA-AAS) was developed for As(III) determination in waters, by extraction with sodium diethyldithiocarbamate (NaDDTC) as complexing agent, and by sorption of the As(III)-DDTC complex in a micro-column filled with 5 mg C18 reversed phase (10 µL dry sorbent), followed by elution with ethanol. A complete pre-concentration/elution cycle took 208 s, with 30 s sample load time (1.7 mL) and 4 s elution time (71 µL). The interface and software for the synchronous control of two peristaltic pumps (RUN/ STOP), an autosampler arm, seven solenoid valves, one injection valve, the electrothermal atomizer and the spectrometer Read function were constructed. The system was characterized and validated by analytical recovery studies performed both in synthetic solutions and in natural waters. Using a 30 s pre-concentration period, the working curve was linear between 0.25 and 6.0 µg L-1 (r = 0.9976), the retention efficiency was 94±1% (6.0 µg L-1), and the pre-concentration coefficient was 28.9. The characteristic mass was 58 pg, the mean repeatability (expressed as the variation coefficient) was 3.4% (n=5), the detection limit was 0.058 µg L-1 (4.1 pg in 71 µL of eluate injected into the coil), and the mean analytical recovery in natural waters was 92.6 ± 9.5 % (n=15). The procedure is simple, economic, less prone to sample loss and contamination and the useful lifetime of the micro-column was between 200-300 pre-concentration cycles.

Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

A comparison of electricity spot prices simulation using ARMA-GARCH and mean-reverting models

The aim of this work is to compare two families of mathematical models for their respective capability to capture the statistical properties of real electricity spot market time series. The first model family is ARMA-GARCH models and the second model family is mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models. These two models have been applied to two price series of Nordic Nord Pool spot market for electricity namely to the System prices and to the DenmarkW prices. The parameters of both models were calibrated from the real time series. After carrying out simulation with optimal models from both families we conclude that neither ARMA-GARCH models, nor conventional mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models, even when calibrated optimally with real electricity spot market price or return series, capture the statistical characteristics of the real series. But in the case of less spiky behavior (System prices), the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model could be seen to partially succeeded in this task.

The effect of the birth hospital and the time of birth on the outcome of Finnish very preterm infants

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of the birth hospital and the time of birth on mortality and the long-term outcome of Finnish very low birth weight (VLBW) or very low gestational age (VLGA) infants. This study included all Finnish VLBW/VLGA infants born at <32 gestational weeks or with a birth weight of ≤1500g, and controls born full-term and healthy. In the first part of the study, the mortality of VLBW/VLGA infants born in 2000–2003 was studied. The second part of the study consisted of a five-year follow-up of VLBW/VLGA infants born in 2001–2002. The study was performed using data from parental questionnaires and several registers. The one-year mortality rate was 11% for live-born VLBW/VLGA infants, 22% for live-born and stillborn VLBW/VLGA infants, and 0% for the controls. In live-born and in all (including stillbirths) VLBW/VLGA infants, the adjusted mortality was lower among those born in level III hospitals compared with level II hospitals. Mortality rates of live-born VLBW/VLGA infants differed according to the university hospital district where the birth hospital was located, but there were no differences in mortality between the districts when stillborn infants were included. There was a trend towards lower mortality rates in VLBW/VLGA infants born during office hours compared with those born outside office hours (night time, weekends, and public holidays). When stillborn infants were included, this difference according to the time of birth was significant. Among five-year-old VLBW/VLGA children, morbidity, use of health care resources, and problems in behaviour and development were more common in comparison with the controls. The health-related quality of life of the surviving VLBW/VLGA children was good but, statistically, it was significantly lower than among the controls. The median and the mean number of quality-adjusted life-years were 4.6 and 3.6 out of a maximum five years for all VLBW/VLGA children. For the controls, the median was 4.8 and the mean was 4.9. Morbidity rates, the use of health care resources, and the mean quality-adjusted life-years differed for VLBW/VLGA children according to the university hospital district of birth. However, the time of birth, the birth hospital level or university hospital district were not associated with the health-related quality of life, nor with behavioural and developmental scores of the survivors at the age of five years. In conclusion, the decreased mortality in level III hospitals was not gained at the expense of long-term problems. The results indicate that VLBW/VLGA deliveries should be centralized to level III hospitals and the regional differences in the treatment practices should further be clarified. A long-term follow-up on the outcome of VLBW/VLGA infants is important in order to recognize the critical periods of care and to optimise the care. In the future, quality-adjusted life-years can be used as a uniform measure for comparing the effectiveness of care between VLBW/VLGA infants and different patient groups

Knowledge Sharing between Generations in an Organisation - Retention of the Old or Building the New?

The study explores knowledge transfer between retiring employees and their successors in expert work. My aim is to ascertain whether there is knowledge development or building new knowledge related to this organisational knowledge transfer between generations; in other words, is the transfer of knowledge from experienced, retiring employees to their successors merely retention of the existing organisational knowledge by distributing it from one individual to another or does this transfer lead to building new and meaningful organisational knowledge. I call knowledge transfer between generations and the possibly related knowledge building in this study knowledge sharing between generations. The study examines the organisation and knowledge management from a knowledge-based and constructionist view. From this standpoint, I see knowledge transfer as an interactive process, and the exploration is based on how the people involved in this process understand and experience the phenomenon studied. The research method is organisational ethnography. I conducted the analysis of data using thematic analysis and the articulation method, which has not been used before in organisational knowledge studies. The primary empirical data consists of theme interviews with twelve employees involved in knowledge transfer in the organisation being studied and five follow-up theme interviews. Six of the interviewees are expert duty employees due to retire shortly, and six are their successors. All those participating in the follow-up interviews are successors of those soon to retire from their expert responsibilities. The organisation in the study is a medium-sized Finnish firm, which designs and manufactures electrical equipment and systems for the global market. The results of the study show that expert work-related knowledge transfer between generations can mean knowledge building which produces new, meaningful knowledge for the organisation. This knowledge is distributed in the organisation to all those that find it useful in increasing the efficiency and competitiveness of the whole organisation. The transfer and building of knowledge together create an act of knowledge sharing between generations where the building of knowledge presupposes transfer. Knowledge sharing proceeds between the expert and the novice through eight phases. During the phases of knowledge transfer the expert guides the novice to absorb the knowledge to be transferred. With the expert’s help the novice gradually comes to understand the knowledge and in the end he or she is capable of using it in his or her work. During the phases of knowledge building the expert helps the novice to further develop the knowledge being transferred so that it becomes new, useful knowledge for the organisation. After that the novice takes the built knowledge to use in his or her work. Based on the results of the study, knowledge sharing between generations takes place in interaction and ends when knowledge is taken to use. The results I obtained in the interviews by the articulation method show that knowledge sharing between generations is shaped by the novices’ conceptions of their own work goals, knowledge needs and duties. These are not only based on the official definition of the work, but also how the novices find their work or how they prioritise the given objectives and responsibilities. The study shows that the novices see their work primarily as maintenance or development. Those primarily involved in maintenance duties do not necessarily need knowledge defined as transferred between generations. Therefore, they do not necessarily transfer knowledge with their assigned experts, even though this can happen in favourable circumstances. They do not build knowledge because their view of their work goals and duties does not require the building of new knowledge. Those primarily involved in development duties, however, do need knowledge available from their assigned experts. Therefore, regardless of circumstances they transfer knowledge with their assigned experts and also build knowledge because their work goals and duties create a basis for building new knowledge. The literature on knowledge transfer between generations has focused on describing either the knowledge being transferred or the means by which it is transferred. Based on the results of this study, however, knowledge sharing between generations, that is, transfer and building is determined by how the novice considers his or her own knowledge needs and work practices. This is why studies on knowledge sharing between generations and its implementation should be based not only on the knowledge content and how it is shared, but also on the context of the work in which the novice interprets and shares knowledge. The existing literature has not considered the possibility that knowledge transfer between generations may mean building knowledge. The results of this study, however, show that this is possible. In knowledge building, the expert’s existing organisational knowledge is combined with the new knowledge that the novice brings to the organisation. In their interaction this combination of the expert’s “old” and the novice’s “new” knowledge becomes new, meaningful organisational knowledge. Previous studies show that knowledge development between the members of an organisation is the prerequisite for organisational renewal which in turn is essential for improved competitiveness. Against this background, knowledge building enables organisational renewal and thus enhances competitiveness. Hence, when knowledge transfer between generations is followed by knowledge building, the organisation kills two birds with one stone. In knowledge transfer the organisation retains the existing knowledge and thus maintains its competitiveness. In knowledge building the organisation developsnew knowledge and thus improves its competitiveness.

Weather requirements and rain forecast to time fungicide application for Fusarium head blight control in wheat

The aim of this study was to determine the minimum conditions of wetness duration and mean temperature required for Fusarium head blight infection in wheat. The weather model developed by Zoldan (2008) was tested in field experiments for two wheat cultivars grown in 2005 (five sowing dates) and 2006 (six sowing dates) in 10 m² plots with three replicates. The disease was assessed according to head incidence (HI), spikelet incidence (SI), and the interaction between these two methods was called head blight severity (HBS). Starting at the beginning of anthesis, air temperature and head wetness duration were daily recorded with an automatic weather station. With the combination of these two factors, a weather favorability table was built for the disease occurrence. Starting on the day of flowering beginning (1 - 5% fully exserted anthers), the sum of daily values for infection favorability (SDVIF) was calculated by means of a computer program, according to Zoldan (2008) table. The initial symptoms of the disease were observed at 3.7% spikelet incidence, corresponding to 2.6 SVDFI. The infection occurs in wheat due to rainfall which results in spike wetting of > 61.4 h duration. Rainfall events forecast can help time fungicide application to control FHB. The name of this alert system is proposed as UPF-scab alert.

A Soft Contact Collision Method For Real-Time Simulation of Triangularized Geometries in Multibody Dynamics

When modeling machines in their natural working environment collisions become a very important feature in terms of simulation accuracy. By expanding the simulation to include the operation environment, the need for a general collision model that is able to handle a wide variety of cases has become central in the development of simulation environments. With the addition of the operating environment the challenges for the collision modeling method also change. More simultaneous contacts with more objects occur in more complicated situations. This means that the real-time requirement becomes more difficult to meet. Common problems in current collision modeling methods include for example dependency on the geometry shape or mesh density, calculation need increasing exponentially in respect to the number of contacts, the lack of a proper friction model and failures due to certain configurations like closed kinematic loops. All these problems mean that the current modeling methods will fail in certain situations. A method that would not fail in any situation is not very realistic but improvements can be made over the current methods.

The analysis of knowledge retention mechanisms for leaving experts

The goal of this thesis is studying knowledge retention mechanisms used in cases of single experts’ leaving in the case company, analyzing the reason for the mechanisms choice and successfulness of knowledge retention process depending of that choice. The theoretical part discusses the origins of knowledge retention processes in the theoretical studies, the existing knowledge retention mechanisms and practical issues of their implementation. The empirical part of the study is designed as employees’ interview with later discussion of the findings. The empirical findings indicate the following reasons for knowledge retention mechanisms choice: type of knowledge retained, specialty of leaving experts and time and distance issues of a particular case. The following factors influenced the success of a retention process: choice of knowledge retention mechanisms, usage of combination of mechanisms and creation of knowledge retention plans. The results might be useful for those interested in factors influencing knowledge retention processes in cases of experts’ departure.

Time course of changes in heart rate and blood pressure variability in streptozotocin-induced diabetic rats treated with insulin

Autonomic neuropathy is a frequent complication of diabetes associated with higher morbidity and mortality in symptomatic patients, possibly because it affects autonomic regulation of the sinus node, reducing heart rate (HR) variability which predisposes to fatal arrhythmias. We evaluated the time course of arterial pressure and HR and indirectly of autonomic function (by evaluation of mean arterial pressure (MAP) variability) in rats (164.5 ± 1.7 g) 7, 14, 30 and 120 days after streptozotocin (STZ) injection, treated with insulin, using measurements of arterial pressure, HR and MAP variability. HR variability was evaluated by the standard deviation of RR intervals (SDNN) and root mean square of successive difference of RR intervals (RMSSD). MAP variability was evaluated by the standard deviation of the mean of MAP and by 4 indices (P1, P2, P3 and MN) derived from the three-dimensional return map constructed by plotting MAPn x [(MAPn+1) - (MAPn)] x density. The indices represent the maximum concentration of points (P1), the longitudinal axis (P2), and the transversal axis (P3) and MN represents P1 x P2 x P3 x 10-3. STZ induced increased urinary glucose in diabetic (D) rats compared to controls (C). Seven days after STZ, diabetes reduced resting HR from 380.6 ± 12.9 to 319.2 ± 19.8 bpm, increased HR variability, as demonstrated by increased SDNN, from 11.77 ± 1.67 to 19.87 ± 2.60 ms, did not change MAP, and reduced P1 from 61.0 ± 5.3 to 51.5 ± 1.8 arbitrary units (AU), P2 from 41.3 ± 0.3 to 29.0 ± 1.8 AU, and MN from 171.1 ± 30.2 to 77.2 ± 9.6 AU of MAP. These indices, as well as HR and MAP, were similar for D and C animals 14, 30 and 120 days after STZ. Seven-day rats showed a negative correlation of urinary glucose with resting HR (r = -0.76, P = 0.03) as well as with the MN index (r = -0.83, P = 0.01). We conclude that rats with short-term diabetes mellitus induced by STZ presented modified autonomic control of HR and MAP which was reversible. The metabolic control may influence these results, suggesting that insulin treatment and a better metabolic control in this model may modify arterial pressure, HR and MAP variability

Involvement of hippocampal NMDA receptors in retention of shuttle avoidance conditioning in rats

The purpose of this research was to evaluate the role of hippocampal N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptors in acquisition and consolidation of memory during shuttle avoidance conditioning in rats. Adult male Wistar rats were surgically implanted with cannulae aimed at the CA1 area of the dorsal hippocampus. After recovery from surgery, animals were trained and tested in a shuttle avoidance apparatus (30 trials, 0.5-mA footshock, 24-h training-test interval). Immediately before or immediately after training, animals received a bilateral intrahippocampal 0.5-µl infusion containing 5.0 µg of the NMDA competitive receptor antagonist aminophosphonopentanoic acid (AP5) or vehicle (phosphate-buffered saline, pH 7.4). Infusion duration was 2 min per side. Pre-training infusion of AP5 impaired retention test performance (mean ± SEM number of conditioned responses (CRs) during retention test session was 16.47 ± 1.78 in the vehicle group and 9.93 ± 1.59 in the AP5 group; P<0.05). Post-training infusion of AP5 did not affect retention (mean ± SEM number of conditioned responses during retention test session was 18.46 ± 1.94 in the vehicle group and 20.42 ± 2.38 in the AP5 group; P>0.10). This impairment could not be attributed to an effect on acquisition, motor activity or footshock sensitivity since AP5 affected neither training session performance measured by the number of CRs nor the number of intertrial crossings during the training session. These data suggest that NMDA receptors in the hippocampus are critical for retention of shuttle avoidance conditioning, in agreement with previous evidence showing a role of NMDA receptors in fear memory.

A randomized double-blind study of the short-time treatment of obese patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease with ursodeoxycholic acid

In order to determine the effect of ursodeoxycholic acid on nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, 30 patients with body mass indices higher than 25, serum levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) or gamma-glutamyltransferase (gamma-GT) at least more than 1.5 times the upper limit of normality, and hepatic steatosis demonstrated by ultrasonography were randomized into two groups of 15 patients to receive placebo or 10 mg kg-1 day-1 ursodeoxycholic acid for three months. Abdominal computed tomography was performed to quantify hepatic fat content, which was significantly correlated with histological grading of steatosis (r s = -0.83, P < 0.01). Patient body mass index remained stable for both groups throughout the study, but a significant reduction in mean (± SEM) serum levels of ALT, AST and gamma-GT was observed only in the treated group (ALT = 81.2 ± 9.7, 44.8 ± 7.7, 48.1 ± 7.7 and 52.2 ± 6.3 IU/l at the beginning and after the first, second and third months, respectively, N = 14, P < 0.05). For the placebo group ALT values were 66.4 ± 9.8, 54.5 ± 7, 60 ± 7.6 and 43.7 ± 5 IU/l, respectively. No alterations in hepatic lipid content were observed in these patients by computed tomography examination (50.2 ± 4.2 Hounsfield units (HU) at the beginning versus 51.1 ± 4.1 HU at the third month). These results show that ursodeoxycholic acid is able to reduce serum levels of hepatic enzymes in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, but this effect is not related to modifications in liver fat content.

Evidence of the effect of dipyrone on the central nervous system as a determinant of delayed gastric emptying observed in rats after its administration

Dipyrone administered intravenously (iv) delays gastric emptying (GE) in rats. The objectives of the present study were to assess: 1) the effect of the dose of dipyrone and time after its iv administration on GE in rats, 2) the effect of subdiaphragmatic vagotomy (VgX) and bilateral electrolytic lesion of the paraventricular nucleus (PVNX) on the delayed GE induced by the drug, and 3) the intracerebroventricular (icv) action of dipyrone and of one of its metabolites, 4-aminoantipyrine on GE. Male Wistar rats received saline labeled with phenol red intragastrically as a test meal. GE was indirectly assessed by the determination of percent gastric retention (GR) of the test meal 10 min after administration by gavage. Dipyrone delays GE in a dose- and time-dependent manner. Thirty minutes after the iv administration of 80 mg/kg dipyrone, the animals showed significantly higher GR (mean = 62.6%) compared to those receiving vehicle (31.5%). VgX and PVNX significantly reduced the iv effect of 80 mg/kg dipyrone (mean %GR: VgX = 28.3 vs Sham = 55.5 and PVNX = 34.5 vs Sham = 52.2). Icv administration of 4 µmol dipyrone caused a significant increase in GR (54.1%) of the test meal 10 min later, whereas administration of 4 µmol 4-aminoantipyrine had no effect (34.4%). Although the dipyrone dose administered icv was 16 times lower than that applied iv, for the same time of action (10 min), the GR of animals that received the drug icv (54.1%) or iv (54.5%) did not differ significantly. In conclusion, the present results suggest that the effect of dipyrone in delaying GE is due to the action of the drug on the central nervous system, with the participation of the PVN and of the vagus nerve.

Changes in clinical and laboratory findings at the time of diagnosis of primary hyperparathyroidism in a University Hospital in São Paulo from 1985 to 2002

In contrast to most developed countries, most patients with primary hyperparathyroidism in Brazil are still symptomatic at diagnosis. However, we have been observing a change in this pattern, especially in the last few years. We evaluated 104 patients, 77 females and 27 males aged 11-79 years (mean: 54.4 years), diagnosed between 1985 and 2002 at a University Hospital. Diagnosis was made on the basis of clinical findings and of high total and/or ionized calcium levels, high or inappropriate levels of intact parathyroid hormone and of surgical findings in 80 patients. Patients were divided into three groups, i.e., patients diagnosed from 1985 to 1989, patients diagnosed from 1990 to 1994, and patients diagnosed from 1995 to 2002. The number of new cases diagnosed/year increased from 1.8/year in the first group to 6.0/year in the second group and 8.1/year in the third group. The first group comprised 9 patients (mean serum calcium ± SD, 13.6 ± 1.6 mg/dl), 8 of them (88.8%) defined as symptomatic. The second group comprised 30 patients (mean calcium ± SD, 12.2 ± 1.63 mg/dl), 22 of them defined as symptomatic (73.3%). The third group contained 65 patients (mean calcium 11.7 ± 1.1 mg/dl), 34 of them symptomatic (52.3%). Patients from the first group tended to be younger (mean ± SD, 43.0 ± 15 vs 55.1 ± 14.4 and 55.7 ± 17.3 years, respectively) and their mean serum calcium was significantly higher (P < 0.05). All of symptomatic patients independent of group had higher serum calcium levels (12.4 ± 1.53 mg/dl, N = 64) than asymptomatic patients (11.4 ± 1.0 mg/dl, N = 40). Our data showed an increase in the percentage of asymptomatic patients over the years in the number of primary hyperparathyroidism cases diagnosed. This finding may be due to an increased availability of diagnostic methods and/or to an increased awareness about the disease.