Rice seed quality development and temperature during late development and maturation

The potential longevity of japonica rice (Oryza sativa L. subsp. japonica) seed is particularly sensitive to high temperature – and thus climate change – during development and maturation. Cultivar Taipei 309 was grown at 28/208C (12 h/12 h) and then from 19 DAA (days after 50% anthesis), when seeds were just over half filled, at 28/208C, 30/228C, 32/248C or 34/268C (12 h/12 h). Whereas ability to germinate ex planta had been achieved in almost all seeds by 24 DAA, only half the population were desiccation tolerant. Desiccation tolerance continued to increase over the subsequent 28 d, similarly at all four temperatures. Subsequent longevity, assessed by p50 (period in days to reduce viability to 50% in hermetic storage at 408C with c. 15% moisture content), increased progressively at 28/208C until 38 DAA, and remained constant until the final harvest (52 DAA). The three warmer temperature regimes provided similar longevity to 28/208C at any one harvest, except at 38 DAA where the warmest (34/268C) was poorer. That temperature regime also provided greater seed-to-seed variability within each survival curve. The results confirm that appreciable improvement in seed quality occurs during seed development and also subsequent maturation in japonica rice, but that increase in temperature from 28/208C to 34/268C during late seed filling onwards has comparatively little effect thereon. Comparison with previous investigations suggests that seed quality development may be less sensitive to high temperatures during late development and maturation than during the early seed development that precedes it.

A three-regime model of speculative behaviour: modelling the evolution of the S&P 500 composite index

We examine whether a three-regime model that allows for dormant, explosive and collapsing speculative behaviour can explain the dynamics of the S&P 500. We extend existing models of speculative behaviour by including a third regime that allows a bubble to grow at a steady rate, and propose abnormal volume as an indicator of the probable time of bubble collapse. We also examine the financial usefulness of the three-regime model by studying a trading rule formed using inferences from it, whose use leads to higher Sharpe ratios and end of period wealth than from employing existing models or a buy-and-hold strategy.

Stochastic volatility jump-diffusions for European equity index dynamics

Major research on equity index dynamics has investigated only US indices (usually the S&P 500) and has provided contradictory results. In this paper a clarification and extension of that previous research is given. We find that European equity indices have quite different dynamics from the S&P 500. Each of the European indices considered may be satisfactorily modelled using either an affine model with price and volatility jumps or a GARCH volatility process without jumps. The S&P 500 dynamics are much more difficult to capture in a jump-diffusion framework.