Aperfeiçoamento da previsão global em séries temporais caóticas

A previsão de valores futuros em séries temporais produzidas por sistemas caóticos pode ser aplicada em diversas áreas do conhecimento como Astronomia, Economia, Física, Medicina, Meteorologia e Oceanografia. O método empregado consiste na reconstrução do espaço de fase seguido de um termo de melhoria da previsão. As rotinas utilizadas para a previsão e análise nesta linha de pesquisa fazem parte do pacote TimeS, que apresenta resultados encorajadores nas suas aplicações. O aperfeiçoamento das rotinas computacionais do pacote com vistas à melhoria da acurácia obtida e à redução do tempo computacional é construído a partir da investigação criteriosa da minimização empregada na obtenção do mapa global. As bases matemáticas são estabelecidas e novas rotinas computacionais são criadas. São ampliadas as possibilidades de funções de ajuste que podem incluir termos transcendentais nos componentes dos vetores reconstruídos e também possuir termos lineares ou não lineares nos parâmetros de ajuste. O ganho de eficiência atingido permite a realização de previsões e análises que respondem a perguntas importantes relacionadas ao método de previsão e ampliam a possibilidade de aplicações a séries reais.

Mathematical models for the prediction of temperature distributions resulting from the discharge of heated water into large bodies of water

Mathematical models for heated water outfalls were developed for three flow regions. Near the source, the subsurface discharge into a stratified ambient water issuing from a row of buoyant jets was solved with the jet interference included in the analysis. The analysis of the flow zone close to and at intermediate distances from a surface buoyant jet was developed for the two-dimensional and axisymmetric cases. Far away from the source, a passive dispersion model was solved for a two dimensional situation taking into consideration the effects of shear current and vertical changes in diffusivity. A significant result from the surface buoyant jet analysis is the ability to predict the onset and location of an internal hydraulic jump. Prediction can be made simply from the knowledge of the source Froude number and a dimensionless surface exchange coefficient. Parametric computer programs of the above models are also developed as a part of this study. This report was submitted in fulfillment of Contract No. 14-12-570 under the sponsorship of the Federal Water Quality Administration.

Interactions of age-dependent mortality and selectivity functions in age-based stock assessment models

The natural mortality rate (M) of fish varies with size and age, although it is often assumed to be constant in stock assessments. Misspecification of M may bias important assessment quantities. We simulated fishery data, using an age-based population model, and then conducted stock assessments on the simulated data. Results were compared to known values. Misspecification of M had a negligible effect on the estimation of relative stock depletion; however, misspecification of M had a large effect on the estimation of parameters describing the stock recruitment relationship, age-specific selectivity, and catchability. If high M occurs in juvenile and old fish, but is misspecified in the assessment model, virgin biomass and catchability are often poorly estimated. In addition, stock recruitment relationships are often very difficult to estimate, and steepness values are commonly estimated at the upper bound (1.0) and overfishing limits tend to be biased low. Natural mortality can be estimated in assessment models if M is constant across ages or if selectivity is asymptotic. However if M is higher in old fish and selectivity is dome-shaped, M and the selectivity cannot both be adequately estimated because of strong interactions between M and selectivity.

Linear Chromatic Adaptation Transform Based on Delaunay Triangulation

Computer vision algorithms that use color information require color constant images to operate correctly. Color constancy of the images is usually achieved in two steps: first the illuminant is detected and then image is transformed with the chromatic adaptation transform ( CAT). Existing CAT methods use a single transformation matrix for all the colors of the input image. The method proposed in this paper requires multiple corresponding color pairs between source and target illuminants given by patches of the Macbeth color checker. It uses Delaunay triangulation to divide the color gamut of the input image into small triangles. Each color of the input image is associated with the triangle containing the color point and transformed with a full linear model associated with the triangle. Full linear model is used because diagonal models are known to be inaccurate if channel color matching functions do not have narrow peaks. Objective evaluation showed that the proposed method outperforms existing CAT methods by more than 21%; that is, it performs statistically significantly better than other existing methods.

An allometric smoothing function to describe the relation between otolith and somatic growth over the lifespan of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma)

We propose a new equation to describe the relation between otolith length (OL) and somatic length (fork length [FL]) of fish for the entire lifespan of the fish. The equation was developed by applying a mathematical smoothing method based on an allometric equation with a constant term for walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) —a species that shows an extended longevity (>20 years). The most appropriate equation for defining the relation between OL and FL was a four-phase allometric smoothing function with three inflection points. The inflection points correspond to the timing of settlement of walleye pollock, changes in sexual maturity, and direction of otolith growth. Allometric smoothing functions describing the relation between short otolith radius and FL, long otolith radius and FL, and FL and body weight were also developed. The proposed allometric smoothing functions cover the entire lifespan of walleye pollock. We term these equations “allometric smoothing functions for otolith and somatic growth over the lifespan of walleye pollock.”

Beverton and Holt equations: spreadsheet functions and uncertainty

This contribution illustrates how modern spreadsheets aid the calculation and visualization of yield models and how the effects of uncertainties may be incorporated using Monte Carlo simulation. It is argued that analogous approaches can be implemented for other assessment models of simple to medium complexity justifying wider use of spreadsheets in fisheries analysis and training.