A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing for the estimation of optimal age for vaccination against measles

Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Analysis of Placental Vasculature by Three-Dimensional Power Doppler Ultrasonography in Normal Pregnancies From 12 to 40 Weeks of Gestation

Evaluate the distribution and variation of placental vascular indices according to gestational age and placental volume. From March to November 2007, three-dimensional (3D)-power Doppler ultrasound was performed in 295 normal pregnancies from 12 to 40 weeks of gestation. Using the same preestablished settings for all patients, power Doppler was applied to the placenta and placental Volume was obtained by the rotational technique (VOCAL(TM)). The 3D-power histogram was used to determine the placental vascular indices: vascularization index (VI), flow index (FI) and vascularization-flow index (VFI). The placental vascular indices were then plotted against gestational age and placental volume. All placental vascular indices showed constant distribution throughout gestation. A tendency for a reduction in placental vascular indices with increased placental volume was observed, but was only statistically significant when placental FI was considered (p < 0.05). All placental vascular indices estimated by 3D-power Doppler ultrasonography presented constant distribution throughout gestation, despite the increase in placental volume according to gestational age. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Further evidences on a new diagnostic approach for monitoring human Leishmania (L.) infantum chagasi infection in Amazonian Brazil

This was a prospective study carried out during a period over 2 years (May/2006-September/2008) with a cohort of 1,099 individuals of both genders, aged 1 year old and older, from an endemic area of American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL) in Para state, Brazil. The object was to analyze the prevalence and incidence of human Leishmania (L.) infantum chagasi infection as well as the dynamics evolution of its clinical-immunological profiles prior identified: (1) asymptomatic infection (AI); (2) symptomatic infection (SI = AVL); (3) sub-clinical oligosymptomatic infection (SOI); (4) sub-clinical resistant infection (SRI) and; (5) indeterminate initial infection (III). The infection diagnosis was performed by using both the indirect fluorescent antibody test and leishmanin skin test with amastigotes and promastigotes antigens of L. (L.) i. chagasi, respectively. A total of 187 cases of infection were recorded in the prevalence (17%), 117 in the final incidence (6.9%), and 304 in the accumulated prevalence (26.7%), which provided the following distribution into the clinical-immunological profiles: AI, 51.6%; III, 22.4%; SRI, 20.1%; SOI, 4.3%; and SI (=AVL), 1.6%. The major finding regarding the dynamics evolution of infection was concerned to III profile, from which the cases of infection evolved to either the resistant profiles, SRI (21 cases, 30.8%) and AI (30 cases, 44.1%), or the susceptible SI (=AVL; 1 case, 1.5%); the latter 16 cases remained as III till the end of the study. These results provided the conclusion that this diagnostic approach may be useful for monitoring human L. (L.) i. chagasi infection in endemic area and preventing the high morbidity of severe AVL cases.

A practical approach to assess depression risk and to guide risk reduction strategies in later life

Background: Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for depression with the aim of developing a practical probabilistic model of depression that can be used to guide risk reduction strategies. \Methods: A cross-sectional study was undertaken of 20,677 community-dwelling Australians aged 60 years or over in contact with their general practitioner during the preceding 12 months. Prevalent depression (minor or major) according to the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) assessment was the main outcome of interest. Other measured exposures included self-reported age, gender, education, loss of mother or father before age 15 years, physical or sexual abuse before age 15 years, marital status, financial stress, social support, smoking and alcohol use, physical activity, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and prevalent cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and cancer. Results: The mean age of participants was 71.7 +/- 7.6 years and 57.9% were women. Depression was present in 1665 (8.0%) of our subjects. Multivariate logistic regression showed depression was independently associated with age older than 75 years, childhood adverse experiences, adverse lifestyle practices (smoking, risk alcohol use, physical inactivity), intermediate health hazards (obesity, diabetes and hypertension), comorbid medical conditions (clinical history of coronary heart disease, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema or cancers), and social or financial strain. We stratified the exposures to build a matrix that showed that the probability of depression increased progressively with the accumulation of risk factors, from less than 3% for those with no adverse factors to more than 80% for people reporting the maximum number of risk factors. Conclusions: Our probabilistic matrix can be used to estimate depression risk and to guide the introduction of risk reduction strategies. Future studies should now aim to clarify whether interventions designed to mitigate the impact of risk factors can change the prevalence and incidence of depression in later life.