An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in Saint Kitts And Nevis

Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty alleviation, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of St. Kitts and Nevis (SKN). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations for possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the British Virgin Islands

Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty reduction, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of the British Virgin Islands (BVI). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations of possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation. A multi-pronged approach is employed in valuing the marine and coastal sector. Direct use and indirect use values are estimated. The amount of economic activity an ecosystem service generates in the local economy underpins estimation of direct use values. Tourism and fisheries are valued using the framework developed by the World Resources Institute. Biodiversity is valued in terms of the ecological functions it provides, such as climate regulation, shoreline protection, water supply erosion control and sediment retention, and biological control, among others. Estimates of future losses to the coastal zone from climate change are determined by considering: (1) the effect of sea level rise on coastal lands; and (2) the effect of a rise in sea surface temperature (SST) on coastal waters. Discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4% are employed to analyse all loss estimates in present value terms. The overall value for the coastal and marine sector is USD $1,606 million (mn). This is almost 2% larger than BVI’s 2008 GDP. Tourism and recreation comprise almost two-thirds of the value of the sector. By 2100, the effects of climate change on coastal lands are projected to be $3,988.6 mn, and $2,832.9 mn under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. In present value terms, if A2 occurs, losses range from $108.1-$1,596.8 mn and if B2 occurs, losses range from $74.1-$1,094.1 mn, depending on the discount rate used. Estimated costs of a rise in SST in 2050 indicate that they vary between $1,178.0 and $1,884.8 mn. Assuming a discount rate of 4%, losses range from $226.6 mn for the B2 scenario to $363.0 mn for the A2 scenario. If a discount rate of 1% is assumed, estimated losses are much greater, ranging from $775.6-$1,241.0 mn. Factoring in projected climate change impacts, the net value of the coastal and marine sector suggests that the costs of climate change significantly reduce the value of the sector, particularly under the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios for discount rates of 1% and 2%. In contrast, the sector has a large, positive, though declining trajectory, for all years when a 4% discount rate is employed. Since the BVI emits minimal greenhouse gases, but will be greatly affected by climate change, the report focuses on adaptation as opposed to mitigation strategies. The options shortlisted are: (1) enhancing monitoring of all coastal waters to provide early warning alerts of bleaching and other marine events; (2) introducing artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) introducing alternative tourist attractions; (4) providing retraining for displaced tourism workers; and (5) revising policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities. All adaptation options considered are quite justifiable in national terms; each had benefit-cost ratios greater than 1.

Simulation of soybean growth and yield under northeastern Amazon climatic conditions

O objetivo deste trabalho foi parametrizar, calibrar e validar uma nova versão do modelo de crescimento e de produtividade da soja desenvolvido por Sinclair, em condições naturais de campo no nordeste da Amazônia. Os dados meteorológicos e os valores de crescimento e de área foliar da soja foram obtidos em um experimento agrometeorológico realizado em Paragominas, PA, de 2006 a 2009. As condições climáticas durante o experimento foram muito distintas, com uma ligeira redução na precipitação em 2007, em virtude do fenômeno El Niño. Houve redução no índice de área foliar (IAF) e na produção de biomassa neste ano, a qual foi reproduzida pelo modelo. A simulação do IAF apresentou raiz do erro quadrado médio (REQM) de 0,55 a 0,82 m2 m‑2, de 2006 a 2009. A simulação da produtividade da soja para os dados independentes apresentou um REQM de 198 kg ha‑1, ou seja, uma superestimativa de 3%. O modelo encontra-se calibrado e validado para as condições climáticas da Amazônia e pode contribuir positivamente para a melhoria das simulações dos impactos da mudança de uso da terra na região amazônica. A versão modificada do modelo de Sinclair simula adequadamente a formação de área foliar, a biomassa total e a produtividade da soja, nas condições climáticas do nordeste da Amazônia.

Caracterização funcional e estrutural de uma ?-glucanase GH12 de Aspergillus terreus

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Dicionário enciclopédico de topônimos do estado de Mato Grosso do Sul: uma proposta de modelo

Pós-graduação em Estudos Linguísticos - IBILCE

Comparison of a genetic group and unknown paternity models for growth traits in Nellore cattle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Measurement of Radiant Energy using Pyroelectric Polymer/Ceramic Composite

Monitoring non-ionizing radiant energy is increasingly demanded for many applications such as automobile, biomedical and security system. Thermal type infrared (IR) sensors can operate at room temperature and pyroelectric materials have high sensitivity and accuracy for that application. Working as thermal transducer pyroelectric sensor converts the non-quantified thermal flux into the output measurable quantity of electrical charge, voltage or current. In the present study the composite made of poly(vinylidene fluoride) -PVDF and lead zirconate titanate (PZT) partially recovered with polyaniline (PAni) conductor polymer has been used as sensor element. The pyroelectric coefficient p(T) was obtained by measuring the pyroelectric reversible current, i.e., measuring the thermally stimulated depolarization current (TSDC) after removing all irreversible contribution to the current such as injected charge during polarization of the sample. To analyze the sensing property of the pyroelectric material, the sensor is irradiated by a high power light source (halogen lamp of 250 W) that is chopped providing a modulated radiation. A device assembled in the laboratory is used to change the light intensity sensor, an aluminum strip having openings with diameters ranging from 1 to 10 mm incremented by one millimeter. The sensor element is assembled between two electrodes while its frontal surface is painted black ink to maximize the light absorption. The signal from the sensor is measured by a Lock-In amplifier model SR530 -Stanford Research Systems. The behavior of the output voltage for an input power at several frequencies for PZT-PAni/PVDF (30/ 70 vol%) composite follows the inverse power law (1/ f) and the linearity can be observed in the frequency range used.

On the Acoustic Filtering of the Pipe and Sensor in a Buried Plastic Water Pipe and its Effect on Leak Detection: An Experimental Investigation

Acoustic techniques have been used for many years to find and locate leaks in buried water distribution systems. Hydrophones and accelerometers are typically used as sensors. Although geophones could be used as well, they are not generally used for leak detection. A simple acoustic model of the pipe and the sensors has been proposed previously by some of the authors of this paper, and their model was used to explain some of the features observed in measurements. However, simultaneous measurements of a leak using all three sensor-types in controlled conditions for plastic pipes has not been reported to-date and hence they have not yet been compared directly. This paper fills that gap in knowledge. A set of measurements was made on a bespoke buried plastic water distribution pipe test rig to validate the previously reported analytical model. There is qualitative agreement between the experimental results and the model predictions in terms of the differing filtering properties of the pipe-sensor systems. A quality measure for the data is also presented, which is the ratio of the bandwidth over which the analysis is carried out divided by the centre frequency of this bandwidth. Based on this metric, the accelerometer was found to be the best sensor to use for the test rig described in this paper. However, for a system in which the distance between the sensors is large or the attenuation factor of the system is high, then it would be advantageous to use hydrophones, even though they are invasive sensors.

Finishing precocity visual score and genetic associations with growth traits in Angus beef cattle

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

O léxico da apicultura e da melinponicultura no Brasil: limites e flexibilidade para sua fixação em um dicionário terminológico

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The mean corpuscular volume and hydroxyurea in brazilian patients with sickle cell anemia: a surrogate marker of compliance

The suppression of erythropoiesis by Hydroxyurea (HU) therapy is associated with increase in mean corpuscular volume, in addition to the increase in Hb F. Monitoring the mean corpuscular volume values and the presence of macrocytosis are effective tools of adherence to the treatment with HU in patients with sickle cell anemia. The aim of this study is to monitor the mean corpuscular volume values after starting treatment with HU to determine if macrocytosis can be used as a surrogate marker of compliance with therapy. We conducted a prospective cohort study over one year with measurements of blood counts and mean corpuscular volume after starting therapy with HU in 95 patients with sickle cell anemia who were regularly followed in our ambulatory outpatient unit. In one-year of successful use of HU the mean value of the mean corpuscular volume increased significantly. The Andersen and Gill model demonstrated that the increase of one unit of MCV implies a 5% reduction in the risk of visiting the emergency room. Monitoring mean corpuscular volume values after prescribing HU alerts the provider of noncompliance in order to counsel the patient in question for better adherence to the use of HU that could improve the quality of care and to reduce morbidity and the frequency of acute pain crises and associated healthcare costs.

U1 snDNA clusters in grasshoppers: chromosomal dynamics and genomic organization

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Genome-wide scan for visceral leishmaniasis in mixed-breed dogs identifies candidate genes involved in T helper cells and macrophage signaling

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Crystal structure of mature 2S albumin from Moringa oleifera seeds

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Análise organizacional de acidentes de trabalho no setor de distribuição de energia elétrica

Pós-graduação em Saúde Coletiva - FMB