Risk-based methodology for parameter calibration of a reservoir flood control model

Flash floods are of major relevance in natural disaster management in the Mediterranean region. In many cases, the damaging effects of flash floods can be mitigated by adequate management of flood control reservoirs. This requires the development of suitable models for optimal operation of reservoirs. A probabilistic methodology for calibrating the parameters of a reservoir flood control model (RFCM) that takes into account the stochastic variability of flood events is presented. This study addresses the crucial problem of operating reservoirs during flood events, considering downstream river damages and dam failure risk as conflicting operation criteria. These two criteria are aggregated into a single objective of total expected damages from both the maximum released flows and stored volumes (overall risk index). For each selected parameter set the RFCM is run under a wide range of hydrologic loads (determined through Monte Carlo simulation). The optimal parameter set is obtained through the overall risk index (balanced solution) and then compared with other solutions of the Pareto front. The proposed methodology is implemented at three different reservoirs in the southeast of Spain. The results obtained show that the balanced solution offers a good compromise between the two main objectives of reservoir flood control management

New method for analytical photovoltaic parameter extraction

Correct modeling of the equivalent circuits regarding solar cell and panels is today an essential tool for power optimization. However, the parameter extraction of those circuits is still a quite difficult task that normally requires both experimental data and calculation procedures, generally not available to the normal user. This paper presents a new analytical method that easily calculates the equivalent circuit parameters from the data that manufacturers usually provide. The analytical approximation is based on a new methodology, since methods developed until now to obtain the aforementioned equivalent circuit parameters from manufacturer's data have always been numerical or heuristic. Results from the present method are as accurate as the ones resulting from other more complex (numerical) existing methods in terms of calculation process and resources.

Parameter-based mechanism for unifying user interaction, applications and communication protocols

In the smart building control industry, creating a platform to integrate different communication protocols and ease the interaction between users and devices is becoming increasingly important. BATMP is a platform designed to achieve this goal. In this paper, the authors describe a novel mechanism for information exchange, which introduces a new concept, Parameter, and uses it as the common object among all the BATMP components: Gateway Manager, Technology Manager, Application Manager, Model Manager and Data Warehouse. Parameter is an object which represents a physical magnitude and contains the information about its presentation, available actions, access type, etc. Each component of BATMP has a copy of the parameters. In the Technology Manager, three drivers for different communication protocols, KNX, CoAP and Modbus, are implemented to convert devices into parameters. In the Gateway Manager, users can control the parameters directly or by defining a scenario. In the Application Manager, the applications can subscribe to parameters and decide the values of parameters by negotiating. Finally, a Negotiator is implemented in the Model Manager to notify other components about the changes taking place in any component. By applying this mechanism, BATMP ensures the simultaneous and concurrent communication among users, applications and devices.

Preliminary temperature accelerated life test (ALT) on lattice mismatched triple-junction concentrator solar cells-on-carriers

A temperature accelerated life test on concentrator lattice mismatched Ga0.37In0.63P/Ga0.83In0.17As/Ge triple-junction solar cells-on-carrier is being carried out. The solar cells have been tested at three different temperatures: 125, 145 and 165°C and the nominal photo-current condition (500X) is emulated by injecting current in darkness. The final objective of these tests is to evaluate the reliability, warranty period, and failure mechanism of these solar cells in a moderate period of time. Up to now only the test at 165°C has finished. Therefore, we cannot provide complete reliability information, but we have carried out preliminary data and failure analysis with the current results.

A methodology proposal to obtain operational parameter forecasts and operational risk assessment in container terminals

Las terminales de contenedores son sistemas complejos en los que un elevado número de actores económicos interactúan para ofrecer servicios de alta calidad bajo una estricta planificación y objetivos económicos. Las conocidas como "terminales de nueva generación" están diseñadas para prestar servicio a los mega-buques, que requieren tasas de productividad que alcanzan los 300 movimientos/ hora. Estas terminales han de satisfacer altos estándares dado que la competitividad entre terminales es elevada. Asegurar la fiabilidad de las planificaciones del atraque es clave para atraer clientes, así como reducir al mínimo el tiempo que el buque permanece en el puerto. La planificación de las operaciones es más compleja que antaño, y las tolerancias para posibles errores, menores. En este contexto, las interrupciones operativas deben reducirse al mínimo. Las principales causas de dichas perturbaciones operacionales, y por lo tanto de incertidumbre, se identifican y caracterizan en esta investigación. Existen una serie de factores que al interactuar con la infraestructura y/o las operaciones desencadenan modos de fallo o parada operativa. Los primeros pueden derivar no solo en retrasos en el servicio sino que además puede tener efectos colaterales sobre la reputación de la terminal, o incluso gasto de tiempo de gestión, todo lo cual supone un impacto para la terminal. En el futuro inmediato, la monitorización de las variables operativas presenta gran potencial de cara a mejorar cualitativamente la gestión de las operaciones y los modelos de planificación de las terminales, cuyo nivel de automatización va en aumento. La combinación del criterio experto con instrumentos que proporcionen datos a corto y largo plazo es fundamental para el desarrollo de herramientas que ayuden en la toma de decisiones, ya que de este modo estarán adaptadas a las auténticas condiciones climáticas y operativas que existen en cada emplazamiento. Para el corto plazo se propone una metodología con la que obtener predicciones de parámetros operativos en terminales de contenedores. Adicionalmente se ha desarrollado un caso de estudio en el que se aplica el modelo propuesto para obtener predicciones de la productividad del buque. Este trabajo se ha basado íntegramente en datos proporcionados por una terminal semi-automatizada española. Por otro lado, se analiza cómo gestionar, evaluar y mitigar el efecto de las interrupciones operativas a largo plazo a través de la evaluación del riesgo, una forma interesante de evaluar el effecto que eventos inciertos pero probables pueden generar sobre la productividad a largo plazo de la terminal. Además se propone una definición de riesgo operativo junto con una discusión de los términos que representan con mayor fidelidad la naturaleza de las actividades y finalmente, se proporcionan directrices para gestionar los resultados obtenidos. Container terminals are complex systems where a large number of factors and stakeholders interact to provide high-quality services under rigid planning schedules and economic objectives. The socalled next generation terminals are conceived to serve the new mega-vessels, which are demanding productivity rates up to 300 moves/hour. These terminals need to satisfy high standards because competition among terminals is fierce. Ensuring reliability in berth scheduling is key to attract clients, as well as to reduce at a minimum the time that vessels stay the port. Because of the aforementioned, operations planning is becoming more complex, and the tolerances for errors are smaller. In this context, operational disturbances must be reduced at a minimum. The main sources of operational disruptions and thus, of uncertainty, are identified and characterized in this study. External drivers interact with the infrastructure and/or the activities resulting in failure or stoppage modes. The later may derive not only in operational delays but in collateral and reputation damage or loss of time (especially management times), all what implies an impact for the terminal. In the near future, the monitoring of operational variables has great potential to make a qualitative improvement in the operations management and planning models of terminals that use increasing levels of automation. The combination of expert criteria with instruments that provide short- and long-run data is fundamental for the development of tools to guide decision-making, since they will be adapted to the real climatic and operational conditions that exist on site. For the short-term a method to obtain operational parameter forecasts in container terminals. To this end, a case study is presented, in which forecasts of vessel performance are obtained. This research has been entirely been based on data gathered from a semi-automated container terminal from Spain. In the other hand it is analyzed how to manage, evaluate and mitigate disruptions in the long-term by means of the risk assessment, an interesting approach to evaluate the effect of uncertain but likely events on the long-term throughput of the terminal. In addition, a definition for operational risk evaluation in port facilities is proposed along with a discussion of the terms that better represent the nature of the activities involved and finally, guidelines to manage the results obtained are provided.

Design Parameter Analysis of Point Absorber WEC via an Evolutionary-Algorithm-Based Dimensioning Tool

Wave energy conversion has an essential difference from other renewable energies since the dependence between the devices design and the energy resource is stronger. Dimensioning is therefore considered a key stage when a design project of Wave Energy Converters (WEC) is undertaken. Location, WEC concept, Power Take-Off (PTO) type, control strategy and hydrodynamic resonance considerations are some of the critical aspects to take into account to achieve a good performance. The paper proposes an automatic dimensioning methodology to be accomplished at the initial design project stages and the following elements are described to carry out the study: an optimization design algorithm, its objective functions and restrictions, a PTO model, as well as a procedure to evaluate the WEC energy production. After that, a parametric analysis is included considering different combinations of the key parameters previously introduced. A variety of study cases are analysed from the point of view of energy production for different design-parameters and all of them are compared with a reference case. Finally, a discussion is presented based on the results obtained, and some recommendations to face the WEC design stage are given.

Folding thermodynamics of a model three-helix-bundle protein

The calculated folding thermodynamics of a simple off-lattice three-helix-bundle protein model under equilibrium conditions shows the experimentally observed protein transitions: a collapse transition, a disordered-to-ordered globule transition, a globule to native-state transition, and the transition from the active native state to a frozen inactive state. The cooperativity and physical origin of the various transitions are explored with a single “optimization” parameter and characterized with the Lindemann criterion for liquid versus solid-state dynamics. Below the folding temperature, the model has a simple free energy surface with a single basin near the native state; the surface is similar to that calculated from a simulation of the same three-helix-bundle protein with an all-atom representation [Boczko, E. M. & Brooks III, C. L. (1995) Science 269, 393–396].

Adsorption from a one-dimensional lattice gas and the Brunauer–Emmett–Teller equation

An exact treatment of adsorption from a one-dimensional lattice gas is used to eliminate and correct a well-known inconsistency in the Brunauer–Emmett–Teller (B.E.T.) equation—namely, Gibbs excess adsorption is not taken into account and the Gibbs integral diverges at the transition point. However, neither model should be considered realistic for experimental adsorption systems.

The Malthusian parameter of ascents: What prevents the exponential increase of one’s ancestors?

The reason that the indefinite exponential increase in the number of one’s ancestors does not take place is found in the law of sibling interference, which can be expressed by the following simple equation:\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}\begin{matrix}{\mathit{N}}_{{\mathit{n}}} \enskip & \\ {\mathit{{\blacksquare}}} \enskip & \\ {\mathit{ASZ}} \enskip & \end{matrix} {\mathrm{\hspace{.167em}{\times}\hspace{.167em}2\hspace{.167em}=\hspace{.167em}}}{\mathit{N_{n+1},}}\end{equation*}\end{document} where Nn is the number of ancestors in the nth generation, ASZ is the average sibling size of these ancestors, and Nn+1 is the number of ancestors in the next older generation (n + 1). Accordingly, the exponential increase in the number of one’s ancestors is an initial anomaly that occurs while ASZ remains at 1. Once ASZ begins to exceed 1, the rate of increase in the number of ancestors is progressively curtailed, falling further and further behind the exponential increase rate. Eventually, ASZ reaches 2, and at that point, the number of ancestors stops increasing for two generations. These two generations, named AN SA and AN SA + 1, are the most critical in the ancestry, for one’s ancestors at that point come to represent all the progeny-produced adults of the entire ancestral population. Thereafter, the fate of one’s ancestors becomes the fate of the entire population. If the population to which one belongs is a successful, slowly expanding one, the number of ancestors would slowly decline as you move toward the remote past. This is because ABZ would exceed 2. Only when ABZ is less than 2 would the number of ancestors increase beyond the AN SA and AN SA + 1 generations. Since the above is an indication of a failing population on the way to extinction, there had to be the previous AN SA involving a far greater number of individuals for such a population. Simulations indicated that for a member of a continuously successful population, the AN SA ancestors might have numbered as many as 5.2 million, the AN SA generation being the 28th generation in the past. However, because of the law of increasingly irrelevant remote ancestors, only a very small fraction of the AN SA ancestors would have left genetic traces in the genome of each descendant of today.

Energy-based de novo protein folding by conformational space annealing and an off-lattice united-residue force field: Application to the 10-55 fragment of staphylococcal protein A and to apo calbindin D9K

The conformational space annealing (CSA) method for global optimization has been applied to the 10-55 fragment of the B-domain of staphylococcal protein A (protein A) and to a 75-residue protein, apo calbindin D9K (PDB ID code 1CLB), by using the UNRES off-lattice united-residue force field. Although the potential was not calibrated with these two proteins, the native-like structures were found among the low-energy conformations, without the use of threading or secondary-structure predictions. This is because the CSA method can find many distinct families of low-energy conformations. Starting from random conformations, the CSA method found that there are two families of low-energy conformations for each of the two proteins, the native-like fold and its mirror image. The CSA method converged to the same low-energy folds in all cases studied, as opposed to other optimization methods. It appears that the CSA method with the UNRES force field, which is based on the thermodynamic hypothesis, can be used in prediction of protein structures in real time.

Stretching lattice models of protein folding

A new class of experiments that probe folding of individual protein domains uses mechanical stretching to cause the transition. We show how stretching forces can be incorporated in lattice models of folding. For fast folding proteins, the analysis suggests a complex relation between the force dependence and the reaction coordinate for folding.

Cooperative enhancement of specificity in a lattice of T cell receptors

Two of the most important models to account for the specificity and sensitivity of the T cell receptor (TCR) are the kinetic proofreading and serial ligation models. However, although kinetic proofreading provides a means for individual TCRs to measure accurately the length of time they are engaged and signal appropriately, the stochastic nature of ligand dissociation means the kinetic proofreading model implies that at high concentrations the response of the cell will be relatively nonspecific. Recent ligand experiments have revealed the phenomenon of both negative and positive crosstalk among neighboring TCRs. By using a Monte Carlo simulation of a lattice of TCRs, we integrate receptor crosstalk with the kinetic proofreading and serial ligation models and discover that receptor cooperativity can enhance T cell specificity significantly at a very modest cost to the sensitivity of the response.

Folding funnels and frustration in off-lattice minimalist protein landscapes

A full quantitative understanding of the protein folding problem is now becoming possible with the help of the energy landscape theory and the protein folding funnel concept. Good folding sequences have a landscape that resembles a rough funnel where the energy bias towards the native state is larger than its ruggedness. Such a landscape leads not only to fast folding and stable native conformations but, more importantly, to sequences that are robust to variations in the protein environment and to sequence mutations. In this paper, an off-lattice model of sequences that fold into a β-barrel native structure is used to describe a framework that can quantitatively distinguish good and bad folders. The two sequences analyzed have the same native structure, but one of them is minimally frustrated whereas the other one exhibits a high degree of frustration.

An iterative method for extracting energy-like quantities from protein structures.

We present a method (ENERGI) for extracting energy-like quantities from a data base of protein structures. In this paper, we use the method to generate pairwise additive amino acid "energy" scores. These scores are obtained by iteration until they correctly discriminate a set of known protein folds from decoy conformations. The method succeeds in lattice model tests and in the gapless threading problem as defined by Maiorov and Crippen [Maiorov, V. N. & Crippen, G. M. (1992) J. Mol. Biol. 227, 876-888]. A more challenging test of threading a larger set of test proteins derived from the representative set of Hobohm and Sander [Hobohm, U. & Sander, C. (1994) Protein Sci. 3, 522-524] is used as a "workbench" for exploring how the ENERGI scores depend on their parameter sets.

Lattice model for rapidly folding protein-like heteropolymers.

Protein folding is a relatively fast process considering the astronomical number of conformations in which a protein could find itself. Within the framework of a lattice model, we show that one can design rapidly folding sequences by assigning the strongest attractive couplings to the contacts present in a target native state. Our protein design can be extended to situations with both attractive and repulsive contacts. Frustration is minimized by ensuring that all the native contacts are again strongly attractive. Strikingly, this ensures the inevitability of folding and accelerates the folding process by an order of magnitude. The evolutionary implications of our findings are discussed.